Another Year, Another Monkee

It's that time of year again - Monkee Time! In which we put some numbers into a spreadsheet and have it spew out a fairly inaccurate projection for the upcoming season. But hey -

C Victor Martinez (age 31)
237 PA: 3364053/507, 8 HR, 43 Runs Created 2009 Red Sox
540 PA: 298/371/464, 16 HR, 82 Runs Created 2010 Monkee

C Jason Varitek (age 38)
425 PA: 209/313/390, 14 HR, 47 Runs Created 2009
464 PA: 223/325/386, 14 HR, 52 Runs Created 2010
200 PA: 223/325/386, 6 HR, 22 Runs Created 2010 Adjusted

Jason Varitek's bat disappeared once again in 2009, especially after the All Star break, but the Red Sox fixed that problem by trading for Martinez. Victor can really hit, and the Sox will definitely benefit by having him in the lineup instead of Varitek. Martinez had an awful, injury-plagued season in 2008, which is bringing the projection down. I think he'll do better than this.

1B Kevin Youkilis (31)
588 PA: 305/413/548, 27 HR, 117 RC 2009
607 PA: 304/402/535, 25 HR, 114 RC Monkee

Youkilis has been pretty consistent over the last couple of years, and there's no reason to think that sill stop. Given his history prior to 2008, I'm still dubious about his long-term prospects as a power hitter, so I think a mid-20's homer total is probably reasonable.

2B Dustin Pedroia (26)
714 PA: 296/370/447, 15 HR, 105 RC 2009
690 PA: 310/372/463, 14 HR, 108 RC Monkee

Pedroia is becoming a steady producer at the top of the order. His batting average dipped a bit in 2009, but I expect a bounceback in 2010. I'm always bullish on Pedroia, but he's getting to that age where he should have two or three really great seasons in him. So let's say that I think the Monkee projection is a little light.

3B Adrian Beltre (31)
556 PA: 268/316/432, 17 HR, 68 RC Monkee

3B Mike Lowell (36)
484 PA: 290/337/474, 17 HR, 63 RC 2009
514 PA: 294/348/477, 18 HR, 73 RC Monkee

As with Varitek, the Sox went out and replaced a member of the starting lineup while he is still on the roster. In this case it's Lowell, who can still hit but whose limited mobility has made him a liability in the field. Beltre gives a little bit back with the bat, particularly in terms of OBP, but his fielding is excellent and should make up for any offensive shortfall. That said, many people believe that Beltre will thrive with Fenway's short porch, and exceed the power numbers projected here.

SS Marco Scutaro (34)
622 PA: 235/294/358, 12 HR, 68 RC (Green, Lugo, Gonzalez, Lowrie) 2009
588 PA: 274/357/384, 9 HR, 75 RC Marco Scutaro Monkee

A good baseball axiom would be that a lot of Nick Green is a bad thing. Last year, the Red Sox saw a lot of Nick Green, with the result that the Boston shortstops combined for an abysmal, sub-.300 OBP. Scutaro is not a great offensive player by any stretch of the imagination, and I think the OBP number here is a little high. But Scutaro is not in the business of giving away outs, so he'll definitely be an upgrade here. His glove work might not be up to the standards of Alex Gonzalez, but he's steady and clearly superior to Green on defense.

LF Jacoby Ellsbury (26)
691 PA: 301/352/415, 8 HR, 99 RC 2009
650 PA*: 296/346/412, 9 HR, 91 RC 2009 Monkee

Ellsbury moved his game forward a bit last year, bringing his OBP up to an acceptable figure for a leadoff man. His modest power numbers were augmented by a ton of speed (70 steals). He's a guy who seems to have the ability to use his speed to be an effective offensive player, and I expect more of the same this year.

CF Mike Cameron (37)
638 PA: 267/384/537, 36 HR, 117 RC (LF Jason Bay) 2009
593 PA: 246/336/455, 24 HR, 83 RC Monkee

Here he is, the guy who has absolutely ruined the Red Sox offense for the 2010 season. Jason Bay was the only "Big Bopper" in the Boston lineup last year (irrespective of 20+ HR guys like Martinez and Youkilis and Lowell and Drew and Ortiz), and there is no way Cameron can replace that offense. Oh, sure, he's a decent bet to hit 20+ homers himself, and he gives you a decent OBP for a low BA/high strikeout guy, but still. The offense sucks because of this guy. Good thing he's so incredibly much better than Bay with the glove. Holistic sabermetric valuation has Cameron just as productive a player as Bay.

RF JD Drew (34)
539 PA: 279/391/522, 24 HR, 96 RC 2009
514 PA: 277/392/499, 20 HR, 87 RC Monkee

Drew's numbers have been remarkably similar the last couple of years, and the Monkee expects more of the same. The calculation goes back three years, so JD's 11-homer 2007 season dampens the power projection. I think he'll slug over .500, but that's picking nits at this point.

DH David Ortiz (33)
627 PA: 238/332/462, 28 HR, 86 RC 2009
590 PA: 267/369/511, 28 HR, 98 RC Monkee

Ortiz' numbers have shown a precipitous decline over the last couple of years. Big Papi struggled mightily over the first two months, especially in terms of power production. Given this dropoff, the Monkee seems a little optimistic showing this kind of bounceback. However, these numbers aren't far off from what Ortiz produced from June 1 on last year (264/356/548), so they should be attainable. I hope.

The Red Sox were third in the American League last year with 872 runs scored (5.38 per game). Because there was a lot of talk about the Sox improving their "run prevention" with the additions of Beltre, Cameron and Scutaro (along with starting pitcher John Lackey), there has been a lot of jabber about how this is going to be a poor offense. I just don't see it. Sure, the Red Sox have given up runs in the Bay/Cameron swap, but they've also added runs at catcher and shortstop, and hopefully will get a bit more production from the DH position.

The Red Sox lineup contains three guys who are among the elite hitters at their position (Martinez, Youkilis and Pedroia), and six other guys who are above average. That's a very good offense, one that will score a lot of runs. I look for the Sox to again be among the top three scoring teams in the AL. Combine that with pitching and defense that should significantly cut back on the runs allowed, and you once again have a powerful team.

Yay for the Monkee

Huh! Is it playoff time already? Indeed it is, and the Red Sox are once again embroiled with the Angels. Let’s take this opportunity to see how the Monkee did in predicting batting performance this season.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee
425 PA: 209/313/390, 14 HR, 47 RC actual

Well, the power figures exceeded expectations. The captain was actually having a pretty decent season, going into the All Star break with an .826 OPS and 13 homers. Afterward he hit .157 with one home run, with the free fall really taking stride when Boston acquired Victor Martinez at the trade deadline. And thank goodness for that. Varitek probably doesn’t warrant anything other than a third catcher/bullpen coach role next year.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee
588 PA: 304/413/548, 27 HR, 117 RC actual

The Monkee and I were skeptical of Youk’s power surge in 2008, but he proved us wrong this year. I still think this will be a short-term fad, but I’m not complaining. Youk improved his walk rate a bit again this year.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee
714 PA: 296/371/443, 15 HR, 105 RC actual

The reigning MVP won’t repeat that honor this year. Pedroia’s batting average dropped by quite a bit, which is also directly reflected in his slugging figure. Before the season I predicted that Pedroia would improve his walk rate this year, and that was borne out. So I got that going for me.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee
484 PA: 290/337/494, 17 HR, 63 RC actual

Lowell’s hip injury cost him some playing time again this year. BA and slugging were pretty accurate, but his walk rate, which was never great to begin with, is slipping.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee
123 PA: 284/352/367, 1 HR, 16 RC actual (Boston only)

Well, Lugo was hurt and couldn’t play, then he came back and couldn’t field, so he still didn’t play. Meantime Jed Lowrie got hurt and had surgery. Meantime Nick Green had a few good games and fooled everyone into thinking he could handle an everyday shortstop job. Then Lugo got traded away, Alex Gonzalez got traded for, and Green got hurt. Though lacking power, Lugo did outperform his Monkee-projected slash rates for the Sox, then continued to do so with the Cardinals. This was expected, because his execrable 2007 season was weighted into this mix.

LF Jason Bay (30)
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee
638 PA: 267/384/567, 36 HR, 117 RC actual

Not too bad of a prediction. Once again the Monkee shortchanged the power numbers. Bay’s walk rate was also better than normal. Bay was another guy with a crappy 2007 season in the mix, which helped keep the prediction down.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC Monkee
691 PA: 301/355/415, 8 HR, 99 RC actual

The Monkee did well with Ellsbury, too. Jacoby had a slightly higher BA, which flow through the other slash stats. Ellsbury’s team-record 70 steals are reflected in the inflated runs created number.

RF JD Drew (33)
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee
529 PA: 279/392/522, 24HR, 96 RC actual

The Monkee was damn close with Drew, once again only missing out on the power numbers. Once again, a poor 2007 season depressed that projection.

DH David Ortiz (33)
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee
627 PA: 238/332/462, 28 HR, 86 RC actual.

Here’s one that the Monkee didn’t do to good on. Ortiz didn’t hit at all for the first two months of the year, which doomed his slash stats. He did make a comeback through the rest of the year in terms of home runs, but this is nothing short of disappointing for Ortiz.

Overall, this was one of the best years for the Monkee. Varitek and Ortiz both fell short of expectations, but this was mostly related to age-related decline that this type of system won’t pick up. A few other guys showed more power than the Monkee precicted, but overall everything was within the ballpark of the predictions. So yay for the Monkee!

Return of the Monkee

I did this thing for a couple of years where I came up with some rudimentary projections of how the Red Sox players will hit during the upcoming season, in order to guess if they will be better or worse than last year. The simple explanation is that I do a weighted-average computation based on the last three seasons stats, with the most recent season weighted the heaviest. Last year I think I skipped this exercise, but it's a new season and I'm ready to give it a go again.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
472 PA: 220/313/359, 13 HR, 47 Runs Created 2008
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee

Varitek's hitting was abysmal last season, particularly when batting left-handed. The Monkee is looking for a bit of a bounceback this season, but a modest one. Lots of people point to Varitek's off-field problems as the reason for his poor season. I point to the fact that he was a 36-year-old catcher who had an awful season with the bat two years earlier. I expect the plate appearances to fall short of this projection, as George Kottaras starts being groomed to take over full time in a year or two.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
621 PA: 312/406/569, 29 HR, 120 RC 2008
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee

Youkilis had a career year in 2008. I hear lots of Sox fans say he's going to build on it and be a true slugger. Maybe he will, but the fact of the matter is that prior to 2008, Youk had never hit more than 29 home runs over the course of two seasons, ever, in his career. The 21 HR projected by the Monkee looks about right to me, with Youkilis's typical solid OBP.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
726 PA: 326/372/493, 17 HR, 123 RC 2008
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee

Pedroia had a breakout season last year, winning the AL MVP award with solid hitting, decent power, and Gold Glove defense. Because the Monkee uses three years of data, Pedroia's abbreviated 2006 stats are included, so I increased the plate appearances to what should be a more realistic figure. The Monkee projects some regression, which is reasonable, but Pedroia is at an age that he could easily continue to improve. If anything, I think the slugging projection is reasonable but that Pedroia will draw more walks and exceed this OBP projection.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
468 PA: 274/338/461, 17 HR, 63 RC 2008
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee

Lowell missed 49 games last season due to injuries. He appears to be healthy again this season, and though he's getting older, he's also not been particularly injury-prone in the past. So I think the 564 plate appearances are reasonable. Lowell had an exceptional season in 2007, with a .324 BA and .378 OBP that were well above his career norms. Those numbers have inflated the projection a bit. I think the rate stats will be closer to his 2008 actuals, but the additional playing time will be worth an additional win for the team.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
613 PA: 263/344/365, 3 HR, 69 RC (Lugo and Lowrie combined) 2008
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee

I admit that there are problems with this projection. First of all, Lugo is injured and Lowrie will open the season as the starting shortstop. Secondly, the Monkee can't really handle projecting a half-season worth of performance, so I have nothing for Lowrie. Suffice it to say that I believe the shortstop position will generate more offense than the Lugo projection above, because if Lugo gets the job back when he returns from injury, he'll have to do better than this to keep the job. Lowrie, who used to seemingly pull walks out of thin air when he played for the Sea Dogs, hit 258/338/400 in his first taste of the majors last season, and I fully expect him to do better than that with additional experience.

LF Jason Bay (30)
636 PA: 297/388/528, 29 HR, 113 RC (Bay and Manny Ramirez combined) 2008
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee

Jason Bay came to the Red Sox in the beginning of August and basically continued Manny Ramirez' production through the rest of the season. Of course nobody noticed that because Manny went out and hit close to .400 for the Dodgers over the same time period. Bay doesn't hit for the same kind of average as Manny, but I expect him to post a good OBP and the same solid power that this position generated in 2008.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
609 PA: 280/333/394, 9 HR, 78 RC 2008
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC 2009 Monkee

As with Pedrioa, I have bumped up Ellsbury's playing time, which the Monkee diluted due to the fact that 2008 was the speedster's first full season in the majors. Interestingly, Ellsbury's ridiculous September of 2007 skews the averages upward to a projection that I think is reasonable for the coming season. Because he is the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury's will want his OBP to meet or exceed this level or he will be a liability.

RF JD Drew (33)
456 PA: 280/408/519, 19 HR, 82 RC 2008
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee

The oft-injured Drew missed 53 games in 2008. The Monkee expects him to be in the lineup more in 2009 - but only by about 15 games because, as previously mentioned, the man gets hurt a lot. The Monkee expects JD's increase in playing time to be tempered by a drop off in power, as 2008 was his best year since '05 in that area. I think Drew can repeat in the power deparment this year, but my best guess is that his actual rates will split the difference between 2008 and the Monkee projection. I think he'll be worth half a win simply by appearing in the lineup more.

DH David Ortiz (33)
491 PA: 264/369/507, 23 HR, 79 RC 2008
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee

With the Monkee projecting a 41 run increase in Ortiz' offense (four wins), it's clear that Big Papi's health is a big key to Boston's success in 2009. Ortiz started very slowly and ended up missing 53 games, due a wrist injury and perhaps also residual effects from a sore knee. Many are concerned that Ortiz will continue to struggle as his body breaks down. I think differently. At 33, the big man isn't especially old, and like Lowell he's not historically been injury-prone. I think a decent bounceback can be expected, and while the 50 home run season won't be repeated, 33 dingers is well within his reach.

The Red Sox were second in the American League last year with 845 runs scored (5.22 per game), this despite the fact that Varitek was a black hole, and Ortiz, Lowell, Drew and Manny each missed a third of Boston's season. The raw projections above show +35 runs from the returning players, or 3.5 wins. What's missing from this equation is of course the bench. Coco Crisp in particular grabbed over 409 plate appearances and created 53 runs, filling in the gaps when Ellsbury and Drew were out of the lineup. Much of the 35 run increase projected is simply the result of the core players remaining in the lineup.

But that doesn't mean I think that the offense will lose runs this year. On the contrary: I believe that the projections for Drew, Pedroia and the shortstop position are a bit on the pessimistic side, whereas Lowell and Ellsbury are optimistic but maybe closer to reality, especially with Ellsbury.

Then there is the particular matter of the bench. Last year Kevin Cash "complemented" Jason Varitek with a somehow-worse .647 OPS. This year's backup will be George Kottaras. He's a rookie, but the numbers he put up in Pawtucket (243/348/456, 22 HRs) and his age (26) suggest a guy that will hit major league pitching at a better than .700 OPS. No, his batting average doesn't excite anybody, but he's got a nice combination of discipline and power and I think he will blossom in a part-time role this season.

Secondly, Crisp's replacement as primary backup outfielder this season is Rocco Baldelli. I acknowledge that there are legitimate questions about how much Baldelli will be able to play given his medical issues, but if he's on the field, he's going to produce with the bat. He's never been a strong OBP guy, but he's got real power, and he should easily outproduce Crisp.

Overall, I think there's a very good chance that this lineup is 35 runs better than last season. The standard conversion is that 10 runs = 1 win, so that would mean the Sox will win 3.5 more games this year than last given the lineup. Of course we have yet to look at the pitching (which I think will be better), or the competition (which I think will be better), but the Red Sox definitely look to be poised for another 90+ win season and another trip to the playoffs in 2009.

Annual Monkee Review

The Red Sox rode strong pitching and a solid offense to their second World Series Championship in four years. The feeling throughout the season was that the offense in general failed to live up to expectations. Was that true? We here at the SeaBlog have a projection system that we call the Monkee, and it’s time now to see how well the Monkee did at projecting the 2007 Red Sox.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee Projection
518 PA 255/367/421 17 HR 70 RC actual

We were looking for a bounce-back season for Varitek following a dismal 2006 season, and the captain did bounce back for a decent season. Before the season I suggested that the Monkee might be a bit optimistic and that turns out to have been the case. The increased walk rate might actually be a big red flag for Varitek, as it could be a sign that he is losing confidence in his swing and looking more to take a walk. His HR total was right on the projection, but his power continued to flag as it did in 2006 (IsoP of .167 vs. .162 in 2006). ‘Tek remained healthy throughout the season, which is a good sign, but his offense is no longer the asset it once was.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
625 PA 288/390/453 16 HR 100 RC Actual

Youkilis continued to improve at the plate, despite a heavy swoon in the second half. His BA/OBP were basically in line with the projection, but Youk yanked a few extra homers to build up his SLG.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Monkee
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe’s SeaBlog prediction
581 PA 317/380/442 8 HR 91 RC Actual

Since the Monkee had little to work with, we simply made up a projection for Pedroia’s rookie year. Dustin surprised even the SeaBlog in hitting well over .300 on his way to the Rookie of the Year Award. Pedroia’s walk rate was a bit lower than expected, which I think is a reflection of his being a little too patient and falling behind early in the count. When he swings, he tends to put the ball in play - Pedroia was the second-most difficult player in the league to strike out – and fortunately with solid contact. Obviously he has good strike zone judgment, and I think his walk rate will improve as he gains experience.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
611 PA 272/335/447 19HR 83RC Projection
653 PA 324/378/501 21 HR 109 RC Actual

The Monkee wasn’t the only one – I don’t think anybody saw this season coming from Mike Lowell. The steady third baseman took advantage of the friendly confines of Fenway Park and a.337 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which was 50 points better than his career average. In other words, it was a fluke season. But a good fluke to have, as Lowell capped things off by being named Most Valuable Player in the World Series.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC projection
630 PA 237/294/349 8 HR 63 RC Actual

The Monkee and I were certain that Lugo would be a significant improvement over Alex Gonzalez with the bat. The Monkee and I were wrong. Lugo was the Anti-Lowell, with a BABIP of 50 points below his career norms (.262 vs. .312). Combine this with a walk rate right in line with his career norms and a strikeout rate actually a bit lower than normal, and I see a rebound coming for 2008.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127 RC Projection
569 PA 296/388/493 20 HR 91 RC Actual

Manny not being Manny. The BA and OBP were hinted at in the 2005 season, but Manny’s power numbers were far and away the worst of his illustrious career. The silver lining is that the home run swing came back in the post season. Here’s hoping it was lingering injury effects and not a permanent slide in his ability.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71 RC Projection
591 PA 268/330/382 6 HR 69 RC Actual

Coco Crisp was another guy from whom we were looking for a return to form in 2007, but it didn’t happen. The power stroke that saw him hitting 42 doubles and 16 homers in his last season in Cleveland never appeared. In its place, unfortunately, was a slappy speedster swing from a guy who didn’t get on base all that much. Coco appears to have played himself out of a job after Jacoby Ellsbury hit .353 in 33 late-season games.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89 RC Projection
552 PA 270/373/423 11 HR 77 RC Actual

Another guy of whom I was confident that he could at least outperform the guy he replaced (in this case Trot Nixon), but that didn’t really happen. Drew’s BA and OBP were lower than his career norms and about the same that Nixon provided in 2006. While Drew did out-power Nixon, his slugging percentage was well below his career standards, and even then was only salvaged by a September power surge. It is that September performance (4 HR, 1.072 OPS) that has me optimistic for him next year.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC Projection
172 PA 218/291/385 5 HR 16 RC Actual

Uhh, if you include what Wily Mo did following his trade to the Nationals in August, the Monkee doesn’t look so bad. But, no. WiMP was a no-show for the Sox. Thank goodness Jacoby came along and made us forget about him.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC Projection
667 PA 332/445/621 35 HR 156 RC Actual

Practically everybody in Red Sox Nation thinks that Big Papi had an off season. This is primarily because both his home run and RBI numbers were down from previous years. This is far from the truth, however. Papi’s batting average and OBP were absolutely huge, and the lumbering DH scored 30 runs more than his closest teammate (Pedroia with 86). The popular conception is that Mike Lowell and his 120 RBI was Boston’s MVP, but it’s really Papi in a landslide.

The 10 projections break out as follows:
Too pessimistic: 2 (Pedroia, Lowell)
Too optimistic: 5 (Lugo, Ramirez, Crisp, Drew, Pena)
About right: 3 (Varitek, Youkilis, Ortiz)

It’s a continuing trend for the Monkee to be somewhat optimistic. Unfortunately, we don’t have the time or ability to figure out where things usually go wrong. In this case, two of the guys were new to Boston this season, two were injured last year, and one guy never got to play. We’ll call it “extenuating circumstances” for all five!

Sea Dogs Win World Series

Rather, a bunch of former Portland Sea Dogs players helped lead the Boston Red Sox to their second World Championship in four years. In a somewhat stark contrast to the 2004 championship squad that featured only two home-grown players (if you exclude Curt Schilling, who took an extended hiatus from the organization and made his name elsewhere), the '07 Champs featured a core of six players who toiled in Portland in recent years. The list includes center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who called Portland home as recently as five months ago.

This is even better than Portland, guys!

As a fan who first started following these guys during their AA service, perhaps the most exciting thing is knowing that I will be able to follow them for several years and, perhaps, several more championships.

Certainly Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will combine at the top of the order cause fits for opposing pitchers for some time now. Pedroia has received considerable press in this blog, despite the fact that he was in Portland for less than three months back in 2005. After a slow start that saw him hitting below .200 and sharing time with Alex Cora, Pedroia got hot and stayed that way, finishing at 317/280/442-8-50 in 139 games and the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year. He batted leadoff for much of the second half of the season, but slid easily behind the super speedy Ellsbury for the last couple games of the World Series. Ellsbury got in a couple of games during the summer, then became a fixture in the lineup following a September callup. All he did was hit 353/394/5093-18 with nine steals in 33 games, and set up expectations that he will be the 2008 ROY.

I think Pedroia will be a .300 hitter for years to come, but let me say this right now Red Sox fans. Ellsbury is a great player, and will have a terrific career. But he's not going to hit .350 in the major leagues.

A third former Sea Dog was another fixture in the lineup. Kevin Youkilis, whose Portland tenure predates this blog, played flawless defense at first base and was a solid bat. Famously dubbed "the Greek God of Walks" by Billy Beane, Youk was part of a relentless on-base attack with a final line of 288/390/453-16-83.

Three other ex-Dogs were integral parts of the staff. Two established themselves in the second half of the season. Manny Delcarmen was brought up for good in mid-June and finally settled in as a major league pitcher and provided a solid setup arm. In 44 games, Manny D had a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out nearly a batter an inning. Jon Lester's career was derailed in 2006 by a cancer diagnosis. Lester thankfully beat the disease and made a quick comeback this season. The results were mixed on both the major league and minor league level, but in the end he started 11 games for Boston and posted a 4-0 record with a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He made real progress during the year, culminating with a terrific 5.2 IP, zero runs performance in gaining the win in the World Series clincher.

The third former Dog on the staff was the anchor of the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon had one of the most dominant seasons by any major league pitcher in 2006, but ended the season with an arm injury. The Sox at first planned to make him a starter for this season, then changed their minds when nobody else could establish himself as the closer during Spring Training. Pap was back with a new training regime and careful handling by manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell. The result was another terrific season: 1-3, 37 saves in 40 tries, 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a phenomenal 84 strikeouts in 58.3 innings. Papelbon earned three saves in the World Series and had a legitimate claim on the Series MVP award that was presented to Mike Lowell.

In addition to these six players, many other ex-Sea Dogs made at least token appearances with the eventual champions. Kason Gabbard made several starts before he and David Murphy were traded to Texas. Clay Buchholz made the most of a spot start by no-hitting the Orioles. Brandon Moss, Jeff Bailey and Devern Hansack also saw some action during the season.

Of course there was one other former Sea Dog who played a part in Boston's success this season, but he's not a home-grown guy. Josh Beckett was 8-1 in 13 starts for Portland back in 2001 when the Dogs were affiliated with the Florida Marlins. All he did for the 2007 Red Sox was win 20 games with a 3.27 ERA and establish himself as perhaps the front runner for the Cy Young Award. In the postseason, Beckett won all four of his starts by allowing only four runs in 30 IP (1.20 ERA), striking out 35 and walking only two in the process. Unbelievable.

So Portland celebrates Boston's latest Championship today, one that is even sweeter because of all the guys who played at Hadlock Field over the years.

The 2007 Monkee

For the third consecutive year, I have performed the overly simplistic calculations that go into my annual Monkee projections for the Boston Red Sox. I am hoping that these projections don’t prove to be overly optimistic for the third consecutive year. Last season’s lineup was plagued by sub-standard contributions from several positions, then finally sunk by the injury that kept slugger Manny Ramirez out of the lineup for the final month of the season. With new players replacing some of the weaker links from last season and a return to form from a few others, the Red Sox are hoping to resume their normal position among the top run scoring teams in the major leagues.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
416 PA 238/325/400 12HR 47 Runs Created 2006
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee prediction

Varitek was the most consistent batter on the Red Sox from 2003-2005. In 2006, however, it looked like age finally caught up to him. ‘Tek suffered a huge dropoff that may have been due in part to injury, in part to his excess workload associated with the World Baseball Classic, and in part to age. At least one of those factors won’t be in play this year, and hopefully the captain can stay healthy. It’s reasonable to predict that Varitek will bounce back somewhat in 2007, but I think the Monkee is a bit optimistic with this line.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
680 PA 279/381/429 13HR 92RC 2006
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis had a good year at first base for the Red Sox last year, providing an expected solid OBP with little pop and a good glove. His lack of power keeps me from thinking of Youkilis as an asset in the lineup, but one could certainly do worse. Since last season was his first as a full-time player in the majors, the Monkee is pessimistic on this playing time. Youkilis seems to be a pretty durable guy, so I’ve projected out more playing time. I think Youkilis will likely exceed his predicted line, making up for Varitek’s probable shortfall.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
703 PA 285/344/361 5HR 77RC 2006 Mark Loretta
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Pedroia Monkee projection
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe;s SeaBlog prediction

The Monkee has very little to work with for Pedroia: 98 sub-par plate appearances. Those who have followed this blog for the last couple of years know that I am very high on Boston’s young second baseman, and I think he’ll have a pretty good year. I’ve put in what I think is a realistic and potentially conservative prediction for him. Regardless, I pretty much guarantee that he will provide more offense than Mark Loretta did last season. My pet peeve over the winter was listening to Red Sox fans wonder why the Sox were going with Pedroia, instead of re-signing Loretta and letting Pedroia have another year in AAA. The great misconception is that Loretta had a good year last season, while Pedroia proved that he wasn’t ready for the big show. On count number one, I say bollocks – Loretta did a good job of putting the ball in play, but his punch-and-judy act was no asset to the lineup. On count number two, I also say bollocks. Pedroia hit for a low average, but he put the ball in play and was not overmatched by major league pitching. Furthermore, he had a terrific season at AAA. There is nothing to be gained by having him return to the minors, and there is no reason to think that he won’t provide more offense (and probably better defense) than Loretta did last season.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
631 PA 284/339/475 20HR 92RC 2006
611 PA 272/335/447 79HR 83RC 2007

Lowell had a nice bounceback last year following a disastrous 2005 season in which he hit only 8 home runs for the Marlins. Lowell had a typical Mike Lowell season last year, but the Monkee thinks he’ll fall back a little bit, and I tend to agree. My other pet peeve over the winter relates to people who suggested that Lowell’s second-half struggles are indicative of a continuation of his downward career spiral. In fact, Lowell’s first- and second-half splits almost exactly matched his career norms. I think Lowell will continue to provide a good glove and decent bat from the 6^th or 7^th spot in the lineup in 2007.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
429 PA 255/294/397 9HR 45RC 2006 Alex Gonzalez
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC 2007 Lugo projection

Lugo probably won’t provide the same defense as Gonzalez, but the 50-point improvement in OBP will more than offset any potential downgrade with the glove. Lugo will assume leadoff duties for the Sox, and should provide a fine spark at the top of the order.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
558 PA 321/439/619 35HR 124RC 2006
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127RC 2006

Manny was having a tremendous season before a controversial injury basically ended his season in August. He’s a great hitter, and he’ll have another great season with the bat this year, but his erratic behavior is wearing thin among Red Sox fans, this one included. And he has to hit to have value, as he is among the worst fielders in the league. Here’s hoping for 150+ games with a 1,000 OPS and fans again being happy with Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
452 PA 264/312/385 8HR 50RC 2006
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71RC 2007

Coco was another in a string of disappointments with the 2006 Red Sox. Crisp had a great first week of the season, then got hurt and was never the same. Ideally, Crisp will provide decent on-base skills and a fair amount of pop. If he stays healthy, expect something on the order of 85 runs created or better.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
453 PA 268/373/394 8HR 55RC 2006 Trot Nixon
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89RC 2007 Drew Projection

The most controversial signing of the off season was the five-year deal that Boston gave to JD Drew. The oft-injured right fielder is seen as a “soft” player, compared to the tough-as-nails Nixon. I care more about production than having a guy run through a wall, and it’s not like Nixon is any stranger to the DL. Nixon has declined terribly in the last couple of years, and his sub-Gonzo slugging percentage was embarrassing. Drew brings terrific on-base skills and good power, and he should fit in nicely behind Ramirez. If he can stay in the lineup for 140 or more games, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Nixon this season.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
304 PA 301/349/489 11HR 47 RC 2006
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC 2007

If Drew or any of the other outfielders becomes injured, Wily Mo will be called upon to fill in. If everybody stays healthy, I think the plate appearance projection, and probably the rest of the numbers, will turn out to be optimistic. Wily Mo has intriguing potential, particularly in terms of power. Pena seemed to sacrifice some power for improved batting average last season. I think he’ll find more of a power stroke this year, given the opportunity to hit. He’s a nice insurance policy for the lineup.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC 2006
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC 2007

Big Papi had his third straight career year, so the Monkee predicts a bit of a decline for the third straight year, albeit a minor one. Nobody will be disappointed if he puts up the numbers shown above. It would be another monster season from the perennial MVP candidate.

Boston’s success this season depends largely on bounce back seasons from Varitek and Crisp, and better production from Drew, Lugo and Pedroia than was attained by their predecessors. The Monkee sees this happening pretty much across the board: Varitek +20 runs created, Pedroia +8, Lugo +30, Crisp +21 and Drew +34 add up to a whopping 103 runs more than last season. The remainder of the lineup – Papi, Manny, Youkilis and Lowell, all seem to me to be pretty consistent, with Lowell being the most vulnerable of the four. Of course, I said the same thing about Varitek last spring, and he fell off the cliff. Still, I think the lineup will be much improved and, combined with an stronger rotation, will lead to a much improved team in 2007. Later this week, I’ll look at the rotation and wrap up my (almost) pre-season predictions.

Dice-K the next Tiant?

Reports out of Florida regarding the latest outing from Daisuke Matsuzaka are bringing back memories of another celebrated Red Sox twirler, Luis Tiant. Matsuzaka, or Dice-K as he's being referred to, featured a baffling array of pitches that the Pittsburgh Pirates had difficulty identifying, much less hitting, in his most recent spring outing. Dice-K's repertoire is reminiscent of my all-time favorite Red Sox player, Luis Tiant. I'm excited for the season to start.

El Tiante

El Daisuke

Schilling's new blog

Curt Schilling has joined the blogosphere. He promises to talk baseball and gaming, and whatever else comes to mind. Never one to shy away from offering his opinion, here's a way to get it directly from the horse's mouth.

I plan to chat about a myriad of topics as this blog evolves, from baseball,
teams, players, and umpires, to the media, my family, and my past in and around
the game, all the way to the electronic gaming industry and what I’ve seen, am
seeing, and hope to see from 38 Studios in the future.

The Day 2 post is something that will hopefully be more indicative of the content - breaking down the '07 Sox, and breaking down his own pitching performance. Good stuff.

Thanks to Wisdom Weasel for the link.

2006 Monkee: In Summary

In reviewing my predictions for the 2006 season for the Sox, I was off by quite a bit for both the offense and the pitching. On the offensive side, the Sox created 66 fewer runs than the Monkee projected. That's about 6.5 wins. The pitching missed by about 6 wins as well. Overall, the Sea Blog Monkee projections were off by 12 - 13 wins. In my original postings, I said that the projections suggest a 102 - win team, but that I thought they would be closer to 95. The Red Sox ended up with 86 wins on the season. Adding back those 12 that the projections missed by, you get 98 wins, which is squarely in the middle of my range of 95-102 wins predicted for the Red Sox. Which is a convoluted way of my taking some solace in the fact that, while the actual predictions for player performance were far off, my conclusion derived from that faulty data was correct. Had the players played up to the forecasts, the Red Sox would have returned to the playoffs, as I predicted.

Now, if I can just find a way for them to actually play up to my expectations....

Pitching Review

A few weeks ago, I reviewed my preseason forecasts for the Red Sox batters. I also did a forecast for the pitching prior to the season, and I suppose I ought to review that as well. The major problem here is that The Hardball Times has once again changed its pitching metrics, including one that I focused on in the preseason. Fortunately, they re-cast the prior year stats, so I still may be able to make a comparison.

Curt Schilling 31 GS, 204 IP, 15-7, 3.97 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 104 Pitching Runs Created (PRC). For the preseason forecast, THT used a pitching runs metric that showed pitching runs against an average baseline. Now they've attempted a bottoms-up metric that compares with Runs Created for batters. Hopefully they are happy with it, because it's becoming a burden to my forecasts! That said, I predicted Schilling to go from a -10 to a +30, or a four-win improvement. By the updated measures, he went from 31 PRC to 104, which is a seven-win improvement. My prediction was off by a few wins, which is really as much of a function of the 111 additional innings pitched as it was a function of his performance. Schilling was a bright spot in the rotation.

Josh Beckett 33 GS, 204.7 IP, 16-11, 5.01, 5.22 FIP, 77 PRC.
The good news is that Beckett set career highs in starts, innings pitched and wins last season. The bad news is that he had stretches of being an awful pitcher. Other than his remaining healthy, 2006 was not a good season for Josh Beckett. I suggested that Beckett was replacing Bronson Arroyo, and would be 2.5 - 3 wins of an improvement. Arroyo came in at 66 PRC in 2005, so Beckett was an upgrade, but only by about one win.

David Wells 8 GS , 47 IP, 2-3, 4.98 ERA, 5.52 FIP, 15 PRC.
This is what I said: "Wells is very consistent. Like Beckett, he has injury concern, and his back or his knees are likely to have him miss a couple of starts. Even at age 43, however, I see no reason to expect anything less than about 30 starts of league-average (or better: the 2005 season was one of the worst of Wells’ career) pitching, just like last year." And I was completely correct - David Wells did have injury concerns last year. I was looking for "about the same", meaning ~ 68 PRC in 2006. Wells missed that to the tune of about five wins, and his replacements were no better. The best than can be said about Wells last year was that he netted catcher George Kottaras in an August deal with the Padres.


Matt Clement 12 GS, 65.3 IP, 5-5, 6.61 ERA, 5.56 FIP, 17 PRC
From the frying pan into the fire. Quote: "Like Wells, I’ll venture that Clement will give us more of the same or better in 2006." Correct again. Like Wells, a precipitous five-win drop from 2005.

Tim Wakefield 23 GS, 140 IP, 7-11, 4.63ERA, 5.05 FIP, 52 PRC
The third unanticipated injury of the year. Wake missed a couple of months, and wasn't as good as the previous year when he pitched. The 52 PRC was down from 88 in 2005, or about three and a half losses.

Between Wells, Clement, and Wakefield, my Monkee predictions were off by about 14 wins. However, one needs to account for all of the starts lost to injury. Those starts were taken, for the most part, by Jon Lester (34 PRC), Kyle Snyder (18), Kason Gabbard (12), Lenny Dinardo (8), Jason Johnson (6) and David Pauley (4). That's a grand total of 82 PRC, about 8 wins, though much of Snyder's value was achieved in the pen. I boldly predicted that Schilling and Beckett would be worth about +7 wins this year, and I was spot on. The other guys I thought would be level with the prior year, yet they were -6.

The bullpen is harder to figure, with lots of moving parts. I predicted that the pen would be better than the prior year, but it was a tentative prediction. I guess I was probably right, just going by PRC, because Jonathan Papelbon had such a lights-out season (97 PRC). Nobody else really lived up to expectations, however, so that's tempered. I also need to take Papelbon's PRC with a grain of salt when translating it to wins (that's 9-10 wins attributable to Paps, going by the generally accepted runs/wins factor), because there are a lot of situations that a closer pitches in where a run or even two does not impact a win. So, they were better because they had a solid closer, but overall the pen disappointed in 2006 as it did in 2005.

2006 Monkee review

It’s the season of good cheer, and what better thing to do than an exercise that will surely require some charity from the audience. That exercise is called Evaluating the Monkee. Prior to the season, I do performance predictions for the Boston Red Sox based on a simple spreadsheet that I developed (though the methodology was derived from many other basic systems that I have seen). The Monkee proved to be a bit optimistic in 2005, and I suspect that we’ll see that to be the case again this year.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 34)
534 PA 284/370/491 21 HR 84 Runs Created 2006 Monkee Prediction
416 PA 238/325/400 12 HR 47 RC Actual

Last year the Monkee nailed Varitek almost to a T. This year was different. For one thing, ‘Tek got injured and missed a fair amount of time. For another thing, he just wasn’t all that good before his injury. The lone bright spot – Isolated Discipline of .087 vs. the Monkee prediction of .086. OK, so he walked like he was supposed to. BA and power were way down, however.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (27)
550 PA 265/378/409 12 HR 69 RC Monkee
680 PA 279/381/429 13 HR 92 RC Actual

Youkilis was in the lineup quite a bit more than I expected him to be. He outpaced the Monkee prediction by just a bit, which I predicted based on his age. His walk rate was down but his BA was up, which accounted for the increase in slugging percentage. Overall, Youk was pretty much what we expected him to be in 2006.

Second Base: Mark Loretta (34)
584 PA 311/374/430 9 HR 83 RC Monkee
703 PA 285/345/361 5 HR 77 RC Actual

That’s not good predicting, nor good hitting right there. Despite getting 120 more PAs than the Monkee expected, Loretta actually created fewer runs than anticipated. He fell short in every area, particularly the power numbers. Loretta’s 2003 and 2004 seasons were clear aberrations for power given the context of his career, and they held a big sway in the 2006 prediction. I expected Loretta to be a clear upgrade in the lineup, but he barely outhit Mark Bellhorn’s 688 OPS from 2005, and Bellhorn combined with Tony Graffanino for a 727 OPS that season. Loretta simply no longer has that power, and the Monkee missed his OPS by just under 100 points.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (32)
589 PA 265/337/447 19 HR 80 RC Monkee
631 PA 284/339/475 20 HR 92 RC Actual

Mike Lowell also exceeded his projected playing time, which in this case was a good thing. Lowell’s BA and SLG were better than expected, though his OBP suffered a bit from a lack of drawing walks. Call this one a win for the Monkee.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez (29)
540 PA 250/297/404 14 HR 59 RC Monkee
429 PA 255/299/397 9 HR 45 RC Actual

The Monkee was pretty spot on with Gonzalez. It didn’t expect much and didn’t get it. Gonzo got injured and missed his playing time prediction, which didn’t help because Alex Cora also had a sub-700 OPS.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
660 PA 305/399/599 43 HR 133 RC Monkee
558 PA 321/439/619 35 HR 124 RC Actual

Manny being Manny. Other than the time he missed to injury, Manny had his best season with the bat since 2002, when he also missed time due to injuries. If he’s OK being in Boston, he will continue to hit.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
688 PA 293/391/438 15 HR 94 RC SeaBlog Monkee
688 PA 293/332/438 15 HR 94 RC Corrected Monkee
452 PA 264/317/385 8 HR 50 RC Actual

Ah, if strikeouts were only walks. The Monkee got into some bad bananas, resulting in the swapping of BB with K in the original calculations last spring. The corrected Monkee shows a more realistic outlook for Coco’s OBP for the 2006 season. Unfortunately, that doesn’t make up for the fact that Coco fell well short of expectations when he was on the field. He injured his wrist early in the season, causing him to miss a bunch of time, and the wrist may have impacted his overall numbers. Center field was a big problem for the 2006 Red Sox.

Right Field: Trot Nixon (32)
475 PA 290/371/493 17 HR 74 RC Monkee
453 PA 268/373/394 8 HR 55 RC actual

Right field was another big problem for the Sox. Nixon managed to stay on the field about as much as I predicted (I adjusted the Monkee up from 388 PA), however he was completely devoid of power. His 8 HR were less than half expected of him, and his slugging percentage was bested by the anemic Alex Gonzalez.

Right Field: Wily Mo Pena (24)
250 PA 252/306/489 15 HR 34 RC Monkee
304 PA 301/349/489 11 HR 47 RC Actual

Wily Mo was expected to spend most of his time platooning with Nixon in RF, but he wound up playing a lot of time in CF when Coco got hurt and LF when Manny was out. Pena got his batting average and OBP up to career highs, but sacrificed some power to do so. Overall, however, his production was better than expected.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
656 PA 298/387/602 42 HR 131 RC Monkee
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC Actual

I expected a bit of a decline from Papi, but he actually took another step forward in 2006, hitting for more power and more discipline. Hard to improve on a monster prediction, but Ortiz managed to do so.

Out of 10 guys projected, the Monkee was actually pretty close on five of them (Youk, Lowell, Gonzo, Manny and Ortiz). While most of those guys were actually better than the Monkee predicted, none of them did so by a wide margin. On the other hand, of the five guys that the Monkee missed (Varitek, Loretta, Crisp, Nixon, Pena), only Wily Mo exceeded expectations, while the other five fell way short, particularly in their power numbers. Some of that was unexpected losses in playing time, but mostly it was due to poor hitting in general. In the end, a team that I picked to score 900 runs fell 80 short of that mark.

I’m not sure how I might tweak the Monkee for next year. It’s missed on power quite a bit over the first two years that I have used it. Some of that may be due to the age of the players in question (‘Tek, Nixon and Loretta are al in their mid-30). But I also suspect that the sample size is too small to come to any real conclusion on the use of the Monkee as a prediction tool. So, since it’s easier to do so, I’ll probably just leave it alone.