2006 Monkee: In Summary

In reviewing my predictions for the 2006 season for the Sox, I was off by quite a bit for both the offense and the pitching. On the offensive side, the Sox created 66 fewer runs than the Monkee projected. That's about 6.5 wins. The pitching missed by about 6 wins as well. Overall, the Sea Blog Monkee projections were off by 12 - 13 wins. In my original postings, I said that the projections suggest a 102 - win team, but that I thought they would be closer to 95. The Red Sox ended up with 86 wins on the season. Adding back those 12 that the projections missed by, you get 98 wins, which is squarely in the middle of my range of 95-102 wins predicted for the Red Sox. Which is a convoluted way of my taking some solace in the fact that, while the actual predictions for player performance were far off, my conclusion derived from that faulty data was correct. Had the players played up to the forecasts, the Red Sox would have returned to the playoffs, as I predicted.

Now, if I can just find a way for them to actually play up to my expectations....