Sluggish Sea Dogs lose to New Hampshire

Another cold Monday night at Hadlock, but not as cold as the prior one, thank goodness. It was, however, a long, sluggish affair for the Sea Dogs, who lost to the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 9-3 to end their long winning streak.

Michael Bowden was on the hill for Portland, and he turned in an "eh" performance overall. Bowden is a top pitching prospect in the Boston organization, but he's been decidedly mediocre in the games that I've seen. On Monday he featured a nice fastball in the low 90's, but his offspeed stuff was pretty mediocre, with a rolling curve ball that was fairly ineffective. Bowden had the most trouble with burly left fielder Jacob Butler, who tagged him for a two-run homer and a bases-loaded double. Butler finished with four hits on the night, as did right fielder Ryan Patterson, who is ranked as Toronto's #10 prospect by Baseball America.

Toronto's #1 prospect, Travis Snider, made his AA debut in the game. He got a single, but also struck out three times. The young slugger (only 20 years old) was called up from Dunedin after starting the year with four homers and a .557 slugging percentage in his first 17 games there.

Portland's offense didn't show much, other than first baseman Sandy Madera. The brawny Can-Am league reclamation project had two hits, including a double, and two walks on the evening.

Chad Rhoades pitched well out of the Sea Dogs bullpen once again. New Hamshire's Seth Overbey pitched three shutout innings in relief, allowing just two base runners. One was erased on a double play. The other was RF Jay Johnson, who greeted Overbey with a line drive to the gap in right-center, then was tagged out when he fell stricken with an injured leg between first and second base. Johnson was carried of the field by Madera and John Otness and was placed on the DL following the game.

Masterson vs. Bowden

John Sickels has a "prospect smackdown" between Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden. He projects the two youngsters, currently atop the Portland rotation, both to be #3-type starters in the big leagues.

Masterson has been more dominant than Bowden this year. In fact, the game I saw him pitch was the only time he allowed anybody to score. I saw Bowden pitch last night (more on that tonight or tomorrow), plus a few times last season, and he's overall been less impressive in the games that I have seen. He seems to alternate between putzing around and having truly dominant innings, with middling results. That said, his stats bear out that he has generally pitched better when I am not around. (The Curse of the Sea Blog?) And I have to remind myself that he is still very young for AA (just 21 years old) and holding his own at this level.

(I also have to remind myself that it's not easy to pitch in the cold weather these guys have been playing in thus far.)

I'm going to go with Sickels in saying that Masterson might be more of a sure thing, because he's got this nasty, bat-breaking sinker that will work at any level. Bowden's going to have to develop a bit more polish with his offspeed offerings, because a low-90's fastball that doesn't sink is a little easier for major league hitters to get good wood on. Bowden's changeup and curveball are already pretty good, so the potential for very goodness is there.

Back in the Sea Dogs Way

There are lots of things going on right now, but the baseball season has started again and I'm back to scoring Sea Dogs games - albeit in a reduced capacity this time around.

My first venture to Hadlock Field came Monday night, a 5-4, 11-inning affair with the Connecticut Defenders in cold, 40-degree weather. This was my first chance to see Justin Masterson in person. Masterson started last year in A Lancaster, where he pitched unreasonably well in the high desert jet stream. Upon arrival in Portland he had a few dominant starts before having a few rough outings to end the season.

Masterson started out well this year, winning the Eastern League Pitcher of the Week Award for the opening week of the season for allowing no runs in two starts. Masterson wasn't quite as dominant on Monday. He allowed two runs on five hits and his first two walks of the season. Regardless, his heavy sinker splintered several bats, and he couldn't have been fun to face in such cold weather. He was a lot better than opposing starter Adam coward, who was shelled in his three-inning stint. The Sea Dogs led 4-2 before Beau Vaughan gave up the tying runs in the top of the 8th, which ultimately sent the game into extra frames.

(Note: while this added a good half hour to the game and was very frustrating at the time, it was nothing compared to Wednesday's game, in which Jose Vaquedano allowed the tying run in the top of the 9th. Neither team scored again for the next 8 (eight!) innings. At 5 hours and 41 minutes, this broke the record for the previous longest game in franchise history.)

The Sea Dogs ultimately ended it in the 11th when two strikeouts were followed by two singles and a walk to load the bases. Iggy Suarez was the hero for drawing a walk-off wild pitch pitch from Defenders reliever Justin Hedrick.

Chad Rhoades impressed with 5 K's in 2 relief innings, and Vaquedano picked up the win with a perfect 11th inning, in which he didn't throw any pitches outside of the strike zone.

Annual Monkee Review

The Red Sox rode strong pitching and a solid offense to their second World Series Championship in four years. The feeling throughout the season was that the offense in general failed to live up to expectations. Was that true? We here at the SeaBlog have a projection system that we call the Monkee, and it’s time now to see how well the Monkee did at projecting the 2007 Red Sox.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee Projection
518 PA 255/367/421 17 HR 70 RC actual

We were looking for a bounce-back season for Varitek following a dismal 2006 season, and the captain did bounce back for a decent season. Before the season I suggested that the Monkee might be a bit optimistic and that turns out to have been the case. The increased walk rate might actually be a big red flag for Varitek, as it could be a sign that he is losing confidence in his swing and looking more to take a walk. His HR total was right on the projection, but his power continued to flag as it did in 2006 (IsoP of .167 vs. .162 in 2006). ‘Tek remained healthy throughout the season, which is a good sign, but his offense is no longer the asset it once was.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
625 PA 288/390/453 16 HR 100 RC Actual

Youkilis continued to improve at the plate, despite a heavy swoon in the second half. His BA/OBP were basically in line with the projection, but Youk yanked a few extra homers to build up his SLG.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Monkee
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe’s SeaBlog prediction
581 PA 317/380/442 8 HR 91 RC Actual

Since the Monkee had little to work with, we simply made up a projection for Pedroia’s rookie year. Dustin surprised even the SeaBlog in hitting well over .300 on his way to the Rookie of the Year Award. Pedroia’s walk rate was a bit lower than expected, which I think is a reflection of his being a little too patient and falling behind early in the count. When he swings, he tends to put the ball in play - Pedroia was the second-most difficult player in the league to strike out – and fortunately with solid contact. Obviously he has good strike zone judgment, and I think his walk rate will improve as he gains experience.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
611 PA 272/335/447 19HR 83RC Projection
653 PA 324/378/501 21 HR 109 RC Actual

The Monkee wasn’t the only one – I don’t think anybody saw this season coming from Mike Lowell. The steady third baseman took advantage of the friendly confines of Fenway Park and a.337 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which was 50 points better than his career average. In other words, it was a fluke season. But a good fluke to have, as Lowell capped things off by being named Most Valuable Player in the World Series.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC projection
630 PA 237/294/349 8 HR 63 RC Actual

The Monkee and I were certain that Lugo would be a significant improvement over Alex Gonzalez with the bat. The Monkee and I were wrong. Lugo was the Anti-Lowell, with a BABIP of 50 points below his career norms (.262 vs. .312). Combine this with a walk rate right in line with his career norms and a strikeout rate actually a bit lower than normal, and I see a rebound coming for 2008.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127 RC Projection
569 PA 296/388/493 20 HR 91 RC Actual

Manny not being Manny. The BA and OBP were hinted at in the 2005 season, but Manny’s power numbers were far and away the worst of his illustrious career. The silver lining is that the home run swing came back in the post season. Here’s hoping it was lingering injury effects and not a permanent slide in his ability.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71 RC Projection
591 PA 268/330/382 6 HR 69 RC Actual

Coco Crisp was another guy from whom we were looking for a return to form in 2007, but it didn’t happen. The power stroke that saw him hitting 42 doubles and 16 homers in his last season in Cleveland never appeared. In its place, unfortunately, was a slappy speedster swing from a guy who didn’t get on base all that much. Coco appears to have played himself out of a job after Jacoby Ellsbury hit .353 in 33 late-season games.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89 RC Projection
552 PA 270/373/423 11 HR 77 RC Actual

Another guy of whom I was confident that he could at least outperform the guy he replaced (in this case Trot Nixon), but that didn’t really happen. Drew’s BA and OBP were lower than his career norms and about the same that Nixon provided in 2006. While Drew did out-power Nixon, his slugging percentage was well below his career standards, and even then was only salvaged by a September power surge. It is that September performance (4 HR, 1.072 OPS) that has me optimistic for him next year.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC Projection
172 PA 218/291/385 5 HR 16 RC Actual

Uhh, if you include what Wily Mo did following his trade to the Nationals in August, the Monkee doesn’t look so bad. But, no. WiMP was a no-show for the Sox. Thank goodness Jacoby came along and made us forget about him.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC Projection
667 PA 332/445/621 35 HR 156 RC Actual

Practically everybody in Red Sox Nation thinks that Big Papi had an off season. This is primarily because both his home run and RBI numbers were down from previous years. This is far from the truth, however. Papi’s batting average and OBP were absolutely huge, and the lumbering DH scored 30 runs more than his closest teammate (Pedroia with 86). The popular conception is that Mike Lowell and his 120 RBI was Boston’s MVP, but it’s really Papi in a landslide.

The 10 projections break out as follows:
Too pessimistic: 2 (Pedroia, Lowell)
Too optimistic: 5 (Lugo, Ramirez, Crisp, Drew, Pena)
About right: 3 (Varitek, Youkilis, Ortiz)

It’s a continuing trend for the Monkee to be somewhat optimistic. Unfortunately, we don’t have the time or ability to figure out where things usually go wrong. In this case, two of the guys were new to Boston this season, two were injured last year, and one guy never got to play. We’ll call it “extenuating circumstances” for all five!

Pedroia Named AL Rookie of the Year

For the second consecutive year a former member of the Portland Sea Dogs was named Rookie of the Year. This time around it was long-time SeaBlog fave Dustin Pedroia who ran away with honors in the American League, taking 24 of 28 first place votes and easily outdistancing Tampa Bay outfielder Delmon Young.

Last year, Pedroia's former Portland teammate Hanley Ramirez captured the National League honor as Florida's shortstop. A third member of that 2005 squad, Jonathan Papelbon, was runner up in the AL last season.

Pedroia overcame a slow start to finish the season with a 317/380/442-8-50 line. Pedroia held his own in the middle of a veteran-laden lineup. He was third on the team (and 10th in the AL) in batting average, 4th on the team in OBP and second with 39 doubles and 86 runs scored. He didn't draw walks at the same clip we saw from him in the minors, but he did walk more than he struck out (47 vs. 42), indicating good strike zone judgment and an excellent ability to put the ball in play. Pedroia led all qualifying AL rookies in average, slugging percentage, runs scored, doubles and OPS, and he was second in OBP. He also capably handled the leather at second base, exhibiting good range and a strong arm, and committing only six errors.

Two other Red Sox, Japanese import pitchers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, also received consideration, finishing 4th and 6th respectively.

On Tuesday it was announced that former Sea Dog Josh Beckett had finished second behind Cleveland's CC Sabathia for the AL Cy Young Award. Beckett's chances were done in by Sabathia's 40+ advantage in innings pitched. Ironically, this may have been the difference that allowed Beckett to dominate throughout the post season while Sabathia was hit hard. Boston fans will take Beckett's contribution to another World Championship any day.

Sea Dogs Win World Series

Rather, a bunch of former Portland Sea Dogs players helped lead the Boston Red Sox to their second World Championship in four years. In a somewhat stark contrast to the 2004 championship squad that featured only two home-grown players (if you exclude Curt Schilling, who took an extended hiatus from the organization and made his name elsewhere), the '07 Champs featured a core of six players who toiled in Portland in recent years. The list includes center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, who called Portland home as recently as five months ago.

This is even better than Portland, guys!

As a fan who first started following these guys during their AA service, perhaps the most exciting thing is knowing that I will be able to follow them for several years and, perhaps, several more championships.

Certainly Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia will combine at the top of the order cause fits for opposing pitchers for some time now. Pedroia has received considerable press in this blog, despite the fact that he was in Portland for less than three months back in 2005. After a slow start that saw him hitting below .200 and sharing time with Alex Cora, Pedroia got hot and stayed that way, finishing at 317/280/442-8-50 in 139 games and the front runner for AL Rookie of the Year. He batted leadoff for much of the second half of the season, but slid easily behind the super speedy Ellsbury for the last couple games of the World Series. Ellsbury got in a couple of games during the summer, then became a fixture in the lineup following a September callup. All he did was hit 353/394/5093-18 with nine steals in 33 games, and set up expectations that he will be the 2008 ROY.

I think Pedroia will be a .300 hitter for years to come, but let me say this right now Red Sox fans. Ellsbury is a great player, and will have a terrific career. But he's not going to hit .350 in the major leagues.

A third former Sea Dog was another fixture in the lineup. Kevin Youkilis, whose Portland tenure predates this blog, played flawless defense at first base and was a solid bat. Famously dubbed "the Greek God of Walks" by Billy Beane, Youk was part of a relentless on-base attack with a final line of 288/390/453-16-83.

Three other ex-Dogs were integral parts of the staff. Two established themselves in the second half of the season. Manny Delcarmen was brought up for good in mid-June and finally settled in as a major league pitcher and provided a solid setup arm. In 44 games, Manny D had a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP while striking out nearly a batter an inning. Jon Lester's career was derailed in 2006 by a cancer diagnosis. Lester thankfully beat the disease and made a quick comeback this season. The results were mixed on both the major league and minor league level, but in the end he started 11 games for Boston and posted a 4-0 record with a 4.57 ERA and 1.46 WHIP. He made real progress during the year, culminating with a terrific 5.2 IP, zero runs performance in gaining the win in the World Series clincher.

The third former Dog on the staff was the anchor of the bullpen. Jonathan Papelbon had one of the most dominant seasons by any major league pitcher in 2006, but ended the season with an arm injury. The Sox at first planned to make him a starter for this season, then changed their minds when nobody else could establish himself as the closer during Spring Training. Pap was back with a new training regime and careful handling by manager Terry Francona and pitching coach John Farrell. The result was another terrific season: 1-3, 37 saves in 40 tries, 1.85 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and a phenomenal 84 strikeouts in 58.3 innings. Papelbon earned three saves in the World Series and had a legitimate claim on the Series MVP award that was presented to Mike Lowell.

In addition to these six players, many other ex-Sea Dogs made at least token appearances with the eventual champions. Kason Gabbard made several starts before he and David Murphy were traded to Texas. Clay Buchholz made the most of a spot start by no-hitting the Orioles. Brandon Moss, Jeff Bailey and Devern Hansack also saw some action during the season.

Of course there was one other former Sea Dog who played a part in Boston's success this season, but he's not a home-grown guy. Josh Beckett was 8-1 in 13 starts for Portland back in 2001 when the Dogs were affiliated with the Florida Marlins. All he did for the 2007 Red Sox was win 20 games with a 3.27 ERA and establish himself as perhaps the front runner for the Cy Young Award. In the postseason, Beckett won all four of his starts by allowing only four runs in 30 IP (1.20 ERA), striking out 35 and walking only two in the process. Unbelievable.

So Portland celebrates Boston's latest Championship today, one that is even sweeter because of all the guys who played at Hadlock Field over the years.

Bowden is sharp in Sea Dogs victory

I saw my first game in awhile last night (my busy schedule, Sea Dogs on the road), a nice 9-3 victory for the Sea Dogs over the Akron Aeros. It was a rematch of last season's championship series, and though the teams are quite different now, both have a chance to return to the playoffs this year. The Aeros lead the EL South with a 38-27 record, and while the Sea Dogs are just one game above .500 and 11 games out of first place, they are tied with New Britain for second place in the EL North.

The Portland bats came alive for four home runs, but the story was the best AA performance to date for 20-year-old Michael Bowden. Bowden, who was clobbered last time out in Akron, and who had yet to really show off his potential, was in command from the start last night. He pitched 6.2 innings (his longest AA start) and allowed just three hits and two walks while striking out 8. The only blemish on his outing was in the fourth inning, when Jay Johnson failed to pick up a fliner by Argenis Reyes off the bat, allowing him to reach on a single. This was followed by a stolen base and a fielding error by Iggy Suarez on which Reyes came around to score. Bowden was charged with an earned run, but should have gotten out of the inning unblemished.

Portland hasn't hit a lot of home runs on the season. In fact, coming into last night, Eric Crozier was the only player on the roster with more than two. There is the very strong likelihood that only one player will reach double-digit homers on the season, and even that's tenuous considering the fact that Crozier is simply filling space on the roster and is hitting a meager .224 with one-and-a-half times as many strikeouts as hits. A midseason promotion of Aaron Bates, who has 17 dingers in hitter-friendly Lancaster, could spell the end of Crozier's playing time. So it was quite surprising that for Dogs went deep last night. Dusty Brown charged into second place on the team with his third home run in the fourth, then Zach Borowiak and Bryan Pritz both hit flyballs over the short wall in left during a five-run sixth inning. Pritz' shot was particularly impressive, as it might have traveled 320 feet. Crozier, feeling pressure from Brown, hit a legitimate shot in the 8th for his sixth homer and the final two Portland runs.

Notes:

• Bowden was terrific, but it was difficult to get a read for his stuff as the Hadlock radar gun was all messed up. He throws a heavy sinker in the low-90's, which was evidenced by his 9-2 groundout/flyout ratio. I couldn't tell much else about what he was throwing. He tried a couple of curveballs that were well out of the zone and didn't impress much. According to his profile, he has a 12-6 curve, tight slider and plus changeup. Without the radar, however, I couldn't tell much about what he was throwing effectively.
  
• Sloppy play, with five errors committed on the evening. Akron starting first baseman Jordan Brown was charged with a "life isn't fair" error when he lost a throw from third base in the setting sun.
  
• There was also a tough twilight sky, which led to Johnson misplaying Reyes' hit in the fourth inning. The sky was bad enough that a ball landed about 15 feet away from me and I had no idea where it was until it hit the concrete.
• Akron CF Trevor Crowe was ejected for arguing strikes in the fifth, which led to four position changes in the bottom of the inning.
  
• Rehabbing major leaguer Cliff Politte started the game for the Aeros, walking one and striking out the side in his only inning of work.
• Former Boston pitcher, and current Red Sox minor league instructor Al Nipper was in attendance to watch his young prospect perform.
• I forgot my camera, so no pix of one of the top prospects in the system!