Yay for the Monkee

Huh! Is it playoff time already? Indeed it is, and the Red Sox are once again embroiled with the Angels. Let’s take this opportunity to see how the Monkee did in predicting batting performance this season.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee
425 PA: 209/313/390, 14 HR, 47 RC actual

Well, the power figures exceeded expectations. The captain was actually having a pretty decent season, going into the All Star break with an .826 OPS and 13 homers. Afterward he hit .157 with one home run, with the free fall really taking stride when Boston acquired Victor Martinez at the trade deadline. And thank goodness for that. Varitek probably doesn’t warrant anything other than a third catcher/bullpen coach role next year.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee
588 PA: 304/413/548, 27 HR, 117 RC actual

The Monkee and I were skeptical of Youk’s power surge in 2008, but he proved us wrong this year. I still think this will be a short-term fad, but I’m not complaining. Youk improved his walk rate a bit again this year.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee
714 PA: 296/371/443, 15 HR, 105 RC actual

The reigning MVP won’t repeat that honor this year. Pedroia’s batting average dropped by quite a bit, which is also directly reflected in his slugging figure. Before the season I predicted that Pedroia would improve his walk rate this year, and that was borne out. So I got that going for me.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee
484 PA: 290/337/494, 17 HR, 63 RC actual

Lowell’s hip injury cost him some playing time again this year. BA and slugging were pretty accurate, but his walk rate, which was never great to begin with, is slipping.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee
123 PA: 284/352/367, 1 HR, 16 RC actual (Boston only)

Well, Lugo was hurt and couldn’t play, then he came back and couldn’t field, so he still didn’t play. Meantime Jed Lowrie got hurt and had surgery. Meantime Nick Green had a few good games and fooled everyone into thinking he could handle an everyday shortstop job. Then Lugo got traded away, Alex Gonzalez got traded for, and Green got hurt. Though lacking power, Lugo did outperform his Monkee-projected slash rates for the Sox, then continued to do so with the Cardinals. This was expected, because his execrable 2007 season was weighted into this mix.

LF Jason Bay (30)
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee
638 PA: 267/384/567, 36 HR, 117 RC actual

Not too bad of a prediction. Once again the Monkee shortchanged the power numbers. Bay’s walk rate was also better than normal. Bay was another guy with a crappy 2007 season in the mix, which helped keep the prediction down.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC Monkee
691 PA: 301/355/415, 8 HR, 99 RC actual

The Monkee did well with Ellsbury, too. Jacoby had a slightly higher BA, which flow through the other slash stats. Ellsbury’s team-record 70 steals are reflected in the inflated runs created number.

RF JD Drew (33)
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee
529 PA: 279/392/522, 24HR, 96 RC actual

The Monkee was damn close with Drew, once again only missing out on the power numbers. Once again, a poor 2007 season depressed that projection.

DH David Ortiz (33)
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee
627 PA: 238/332/462, 28 HR, 86 RC actual.

Here’s one that the Monkee didn’t do to good on. Ortiz didn’t hit at all for the first two months of the year, which doomed his slash stats. He did make a comeback through the rest of the year in terms of home runs, but this is nothing short of disappointing for Ortiz.

Overall, this was one of the best years for the Monkee. Varitek and Ortiz both fell short of expectations, but this was mostly related to age-related decline that this type of system won’t pick up. A few other guys showed more power than the Monkee precicted, but overall everything was within the ballpark of the predictions. So yay for the Monkee!

Drabek Stymies Sea Dogs

Better than Halladay?

Kyle Drabek made a name for himself this summer as being a pitcher that the Philadelphia Phillies were unwilling to trade to the Toronto Blue Jays for ace Roy Halladay. Thursday night at Hadlock Field he demonstrated why that might be, throwing seven shutout innings in Reading's 6-0 victory over the Portland Sea Dogs.

Drabek is still just 21 years old, but pitching well in his first taste of AA. He mixes hard off-speed stuff with a tantalizing, mid-90's fastball (topping out at 96 mph on Thursday). By "tantalizing," I mean that he got several Sea Dogs batters to chase his four-seamer, resulting in several popups, if not outright swings and misses. His offspeed stuff was effective, if less impressive. He's got a curveball (I think) that he throws in the low-mid 80's, which he spotted well. With his stuff, I would expect more Ks than he's featured. He's averaged about 7 per 9 innings pitched since his promotion to AA, but only had four last night. Regardless, for a guy who returned from Tommy John surgery about a year ago, he looks pretty good.

The Sea Dogs didn't look quite as good, committing four errors on the night that led to five unearned runs. Worse, two of the errors were the result of throws that should not have been attempted in the first place. Pitcher Felix Doubront was strong early, facing the minimum of 9 batters on 37 pitches through three innings. After that he struggled with his command, throwing 62 more pitches and failing to get out of the fifth. His defense could have gotten him out of the fifth unscored-upon, but he wasn't without fault. It wasn't hard to notice that what had been 3-4 pitch at bats were becoming 5-6 pitch at bats.

Feel-good story Daniel Nava impressed with his bat (2-4 with a double) and his hustle in beating out a double-play ball. He looks like a guy who could have a future in the game. The other bright spot was Lars Anderson. An uber-prospect who has struggled for most of the year, Anderson hit the ball with authority on Thursday, with a line-shot wall ball double accompanied by a warning track fly out to right field. It doesn't sound like much, but I've seen too many nights this year in which he gathered a walk, a K and a couple of tappers, to not be somewhat encouraged by a couple of hard-hit balls.

Kason Returns

After three years at higher levels, including a sojourn to the Texas Rangers organization, old friend Kason Gabbard has returned to the Portland Sea Dogs. And it's clear he doesn't belong here.

Gabbard, trying to return from arm injuries, clearly should not be pitching in AA right now. Tuesday night he put in a performance that made even his worst Mr. Hyde outings look Cy Young-worthy. This is the complete record of his start

BB
BB
HBP
K (guy swung at two curveballs in the dirt. He had no business taking the bat of his shoulder.)
BB (score 1-0)
2B (score 4-0)
BB
HR (score 7-0)
2B
HBP

Blake Maxwell mercifully was called upon while Brandon Roberts was being attended to after being hit in the head (he stayed in played the whole game), and he stifled the rally.

Not quite enough fog to obscure the view.

I've never been a huge fan of Kason Gabbard, but he had turned himself into a pretty decent pitcher. This was sad to see. There was no life on any of his pitches, and he had absolutely no idea where the strike zone was. The numbers were boggling.

36 pitches, 9 strikes
Of the 9 strikes, four were taken and five were swings
Of the five swings, two were missed and three went for extra bases

Looked at another way, Gabbard averaged less than a strike per batter, and as many pitches hit batters as resulted in a swing and a miss.

After they were put in a 7-0 hole, there wasn't much hope for the Sea Dogs on this foggy, drizzly night. Jon Still and Josh Reddick each contributed home runs to account for all of Portland's scoring, and after the first inning it was a pretty crisply-played game. But the fall of Kason Gabbard was the story for the evening.

Tazawa

Tazawa Delivers

I got my first look at the Japanese sensation Junichi Tazawa Tuesday night, and I have to say that my overall impression based on just this one game is positive but somewhat mixed.

First of all, the line was solid: 7 IP, 5 hits. 2 runs. no walks, 3 punchouts.

He was far from overpowering, however, as there were a lot of hard hit balls and more great defensive plays than I'm used to seeing.

His stuff doesn't look overpowering, either. His fastball tops out at about 92, but seems to have some good sinking action on it. He recorded 10 ground ball outs vs. 8 fly outs. He also throws a slider and a curve ball. (Slider AND curve ball? Those crazy Japanese!) Slider in the low-mid 80's and curve in the 70's. He throws the off speed stuff a lot, which I wasn't expecting. According to Soxprospects.com, he also has a forkball with some potential. I know I saw this pitch once (and thought, "Wow! What was that?") - mid-80's with a wicked break. If he can throw that thing for strikes, it'll be a helluva changeup. I don't recall seeing it other times, but maybe it looked different because it went into the dirt.

He threw a lot of strikes, though maybe not the greatest command inside the zone (see prior comment about hard-hit balls). He didn't work too many deep counts in the game. I had him at 100 pitches exactly over seven innings, but I think it was 72 through six, so a crisp 12 pitches/inning.

He's definitely good, and at an appropriate level for his age (22). I'm not sure I see an obvious top-of-the-rotation arm, but I can see him as a mid-rotation guy. And if he can command all the offspeed stuff and throw it for strikes when he needs to, he can definitely keep hitters off balance and perhaps succeed at the top of the rotation, a la Greg Maddux. (Not that I'm comparing him to Maddux, or course. He won't be nearly as good as Maddux, but he's an example of a guy who had lots of success without the plus heat.)

Through 11 starts, Tazawa has thrown 61.1 innings with a 2.79 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 2.5 BB9 and greater than 3:1 K:BB ratio. He's definitely one of the better pitchers in the EL this year, and I can see him warranting a July promotion to Pawtucket. But I don't think Boston will see much of him before 2011.

Dogs Walk off With a Win

Bases loaded, two outs, bottom of the ninth. The Portland Sea Dogs and the Connecticut Defenders are tied at two. At bat is Boston's top prospect - one of the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball this year according to most - slugging first baseman Lars Anderson. The crowd is on its feet. The biggest pitch of the night is on its way. Anderson cocks his bat and.....

watches it miss the strike zone! Ball four! Sea Dogs win!

OK, so it's not the most clutchiest-sounding finish for such a dramatic situation. A grand slam certainly would have made (what was left of) the crowd go much more nuts than it did. But a win is a win, and the finish illustrates one of the reasons Anderson is so highly regarded - his patience at the plate. Sure, he's a big strapping kid with lots of power, but there are lots of those kinds of players out there. Anderson realizes that you don't have to hit every pitch out of the ballpark to win games. He's not afraid to take a walk, and this combination of on-base skill and pure power are what sets him apart from the rest. He's 21 years old and already in AA. He's got a bright future ahead of him.

Good seats still available

Also impressing last night was 22-year-old center fielder Josh Reddick. Reddick isn't as big as Anderson, and he's more athletic. Reddick is also much more aggressive at the plate. Contrary to the Red Sox organizational philosophy of being patient at the plate, Reddick rarely walks. However, he has a sweet swing, hits the ball squarely and has surprising power. Reddick was 4-5 with a double and a game-tying home run in the bottom of the 8th. Reddick also has good speed, which enabled him to leg out an infield single with two outs in the 9th, helping to set up Anderson's heroics. Reddick's legs also enabled him to track down a long fly ball off the bat of Connecticut's Bobby Felmy in the sixth inning, saving extra bases.

The Sea Dogs got some good pitching as well. Starter Adam Mills gave up two runs over the first five innings, but he was extremely efficient in throwing only 56 pitches. Also efficient was reliever Richie Lentz. After allowing the aforementioned deep fly ball by Felmy, Lentz overpowered the next five Connecticut batters with his blazing fastball. He recorded five strikeouts while throwing only three pitches out of the strike zone. Reliever Chris Province collected the win by allowing only one baserunner to reach (on an error) over the last two frames.

Top pitching prospect Junichi Tazawa enjoys the Portland weather while charting pitches.

Though it was the second game of the season, the crowd was of the typical April Friday variety, with about 3,000 in attendance. Fortunately the weather was warmer than I expected, with temps in the mid 50's at game time and mid 40's by the time the final run scored. Here's hoping the mild air is the norm this spring!

Return of the Monkee

I did this thing for a couple of years where I came up with some rudimentary projections of how the Red Sox players will hit during the upcoming season, in order to guess if they will be better or worse than last year. The simple explanation is that I do a weighted-average computation based on the last three seasons stats, with the most recent season weighted the heaviest. Last year I think I skipped this exercise, but it's a new season and I'm ready to give it a go again.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
472 PA: 220/313/359, 13 HR, 47 Runs Created 2008
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee

Varitek's hitting was abysmal last season, particularly when batting left-handed. The Monkee is looking for a bit of a bounceback this season, but a modest one. Lots of people point to Varitek's off-field problems as the reason for his poor season. I point to the fact that he was a 36-year-old catcher who had an awful season with the bat two years earlier. I expect the plate appearances to fall short of this projection, as George Kottaras starts being groomed to take over full time in a year or two.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
621 PA: 312/406/569, 29 HR, 120 RC 2008
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee

Youkilis had a career year in 2008. I hear lots of Sox fans say he's going to build on it and be a true slugger. Maybe he will, but the fact of the matter is that prior to 2008, Youk had never hit more than 29 home runs over the course of two seasons, ever, in his career. The 21 HR projected by the Monkee looks about right to me, with Youkilis's typical solid OBP.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
726 PA: 326/372/493, 17 HR, 123 RC 2008
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee

Pedroia had a breakout season last year, winning the AL MVP award with solid hitting, decent power, and Gold Glove defense. Because the Monkee uses three years of data, Pedroia's abbreviated 2006 stats are included, so I increased the plate appearances to what should be a more realistic figure. The Monkee projects some regression, which is reasonable, but Pedroia is at an age that he could easily continue to improve. If anything, I think the slugging projection is reasonable but that Pedroia will draw more walks and exceed this OBP projection.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
468 PA: 274/338/461, 17 HR, 63 RC 2008
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee

Lowell missed 49 games last season due to injuries. He appears to be healthy again this season, and though he's getting older, he's also not been particularly injury-prone in the past. So I think the 564 plate appearances are reasonable. Lowell had an exceptional season in 2007, with a .324 BA and .378 OBP that were well above his career norms. Those numbers have inflated the projection a bit. I think the rate stats will be closer to his 2008 actuals, but the additional playing time will be worth an additional win for the team.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
613 PA: 263/344/365, 3 HR, 69 RC (Lugo and Lowrie combined) 2008
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee

I admit that there are problems with this projection. First of all, Lugo is injured and Lowrie will open the season as the starting shortstop. Secondly, the Monkee can't really handle projecting a half-season worth of performance, so I have nothing for Lowrie. Suffice it to say that I believe the shortstop position will generate more offense than the Lugo projection above, because if Lugo gets the job back when he returns from injury, he'll have to do better than this to keep the job. Lowrie, who used to seemingly pull walks out of thin air when he played for the Sea Dogs, hit 258/338/400 in his first taste of the majors last season, and I fully expect him to do better than that with additional experience.

LF Jason Bay (30)
636 PA: 297/388/528, 29 HR, 113 RC (Bay and Manny Ramirez combined) 2008
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee

Jason Bay came to the Red Sox in the beginning of August and basically continued Manny Ramirez' production through the rest of the season. Of course nobody noticed that because Manny went out and hit close to .400 for the Dodgers over the same time period. Bay doesn't hit for the same kind of average as Manny, but I expect him to post a good OBP and the same solid power that this position generated in 2008.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
609 PA: 280/333/394, 9 HR, 78 RC 2008
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC 2009 Monkee

As with Pedrioa, I have bumped up Ellsbury's playing time, which the Monkee diluted due to the fact that 2008 was the speedster's first full season in the majors. Interestingly, Ellsbury's ridiculous September of 2007 skews the averages upward to a projection that I think is reasonable for the coming season. Because he is the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury's will want his OBP to meet or exceed this level or he will be a liability.

RF JD Drew (33)
456 PA: 280/408/519, 19 HR, 82 RC 2008
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee

The oft-injured Drew missed 53 games in 2008. The Monkee expects him to be in the lineup more in 2009 - but only by about 15 games because, as previously mentioned, the man gets hurt a lot. The Monkee expects JD's increase in playing time to be tempered by a drop off in power, as 2008 was his best year since '05 in that area. I think Drew can repeat in the power deparment this year, but my best guess is that his actual rates will split the difference between 2008 and the Monkee projection. I think he'll be worth half a win simply by appearing in the lineup more.

DH David Ortiz (33)
491 PA: 264/369/507, 23 HR, 79 RC 2008
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee

With the Monkee projecting a 41 run increase in Ortiz' offense (four wins), it's clear that Big Papi's health is a big key to Boston's success in 2009. Ortiz started very slowly and ended up missing 53 games, due a wrist injury and perhaps also residual effects from a sore knee. Many are concerned that Ortiz will continue to struggle as his body breaks down. I think differently. At 33, the big man isn't especially old, and like Lowell he's not historically been injury-prone. I think a decent bounceback can be expected, and while the 50 home run season won't be repeated, 33 dingers is well within his reach.

The Red Sox were second in the American League last year with 845 runs scored (5.22 per game), this despite the fact that Varitek was a black hole, and Ortiz, Lowell, Drew and Manny each missed a third of Boston's season. The raw projections above show +35 runs from the returning players, or 3.5 wins. What's missing from this equation is of course the bench. Coco Crisp in particular grabbed over 409 plate appearances and created 53 runs, filling in the gaps when Ellsbury and Drew were out of the lineup. Much of the 35 run increase projected is simply the result of the core players remaining in the lineup.

But that doesn't mean I think that the offense will lose runs this year. On the contrary: I believe that the projections for Drew, Pedroia and the shortstop position are a bit on the pessimistic side, whereas Lowell and Ellsbury are optimistic but maybe closer to reality, especially with Ellsbury.

Then there is the particular matter of the bench. Last year Kevin Cash "complemented" Jason Varitek with a somehow-worse .647 OPS. This year's backup will be George Kottaras. He's a rookie, but the numbers he put up in Pawtucket (243/348/456, 22 HRs) and his age (26) suggest a guy that will hit major league pitching at a better than .700 OPS. No, his batting average doesn't excite anybody, but he's got a nice combination of discipline and power and I think he will blossom in a part-time role this season.

Secondly, Crisp's replacement as primary backup outfielder this season is Rocco Baldelli. I acknowledge that there are legitimate questions about how much Baldelli will be able to play given his medical issues, but if he's on the field, he's going to produce with the bat. He's never been a strong OBP guy, but he's got real power, and he should easily outproduce Crisp.

Overall, I think there's a very good chance that this lineup is 35 runs better than last season. The standard conversion is that 10 runs = 1 win, so that would mean the Sox will win 3.5 more games this year than last given the lineup. Of course we have yet to look at the pitching (which I think will be better), or the competition (which I think will be better), but the Red Sox definitely look to be poised for another 90+ win season and another trip to the playoffs in 2009.

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