Year-end appraisal for the Monkee

Opening day is coming quickly, and it’s time to preview the 2006 Boston Red Sox. First, however, let’s take a look back at the Monkee projection system that I used last year for the hitters, and the subjective projections that I did for the pitchers, to see if it makes sense for anybody to read my 2006 projections. Please note that I will do some performance projections regardless of their perceived merit. The stats shown are Plate Appearances (PA), Batting Avg/On-Base Percentage/Slugging Percentage, Home Runs and Runs Created.

Jason Varitek, Catcher
527 PA 282/364/473 19HR 77RC 2005 proj
539 PA 281/366/489 22HR 84RC 2005 act

Boom! Knocked the first pitch out of the park. ‘Tek had a touch more power than I predicted, but otherwise this is spot on. All this proves is how consistent the Captain has been over the last few years. For the record, I was skeptical that Varitek would live up to the projection, and he proved me wrong.

Kevin Millar, First Base
577 PA 291/367/480 20HR 87RC 2005 proj
519 PA 272/355/399 9HR 63RC 2005 act

I fouled one off, but this was a swinging strikeout. About all Millar did close to expectations was draw walks. The power dropoff was swift and extraordinary. I thought the projection was a bit optimistic, but I never thought that Millar would tank like this.

Mark Bellhorn, Second Base
497 PA 254/368/429 14HR 65RC 2005 proj
640 PA 254/368/429 18HR 83RC 2005 projection with playing time adjustment
335 PA 216/328/360 7HR 34RC 2005 act

Like typical Mark Bellhorn, this was a strikeout looking. Way, way off base on everything but the walk rate. Bellhorn was a disaster last year before he mercifully got hurt and gave way to Tony Graffanino. My only saving grace here was that I thought predicting Bellhorn’s performance, given the ups and downs of his career, would be a challenge.

Bill Mueller, Third Base
500 PA 297/374/475 13HR 77RC 2005 proj
590 PA 295/369/430 10HR 82RC 2005 act

Mueller stayed healthy and beat the playing time projection, and the power projection was silly, but everything else was spot on. In my analysis, I wrote, “the slugging percentage … is extremely unlikely to be repeated. I think Mueller will bat in the 290s, but his OBP and SLG will probably be closer to what he put up last season – maybe even a little lower when it comes to the power numbers.” His ’04 numbers were 283/363/446. This is at the very least a solid single, and you could argue that I should stretch it into a double.

Edgar Renteria, Shortstop
642 PA 305/354/435 11HR 91RC 2005 proj
692 PA 276/335/385 8HR 80 RC 2005 act

Renteria fell well short in batting average, and the power number were worse than expected (actual IsoD of 109 vs. projected of 130). I wrote at the time, “Worst case scenario is that he puts up the numbers that Boston’s three shortstops accumulated last season, though I would be shocked if his OBP were anywhere near as low as .309.” Well, that was correct, except his power fell well short. I put the ball in play, but failed to reach base.

Manny Ramirez, Left Field
638 PA 321/416/609 39HR 136RC 2005 proj
650 PA 292/388/594 45HR 125RC 2005 act
Manny fell short in BA, but after adjusting for this all the other numbers were in line. Only Manny could put up these numbers and have them be somewhat disappointing. Well, Manny and Pujols, I suppose. We’ll give the Monkee a base hit for this one.

Johnny Damon, Center Field
698 PA 290/362/466 16HR 100RC 2005 proj
688 PA 316/366/439 10HR 101RC 2005 act

Batting average up, power down, overall production about what the Monkee predicted. Damon was slapping at the ball more last year, resulting in more singles and less power. He also walked less than normal. Still a terrific year. Another base hit for the Monkee.

Trot Nixon, Right Field
375 PA 291/372/527 17HR 64RC 2005 proj
500 PA 291/372/527 23HR 85RC 2005 proj with playing time adjustment
470 PA 275/357/446 13HR 65RC 2005 act

I adjusted the projection to mitigate Trot’s 2004 injury, and that turned out to be a good call. Yet another player who fell short in batting average and power numbers. I’m not sure why this is, but so far Damon is the only guy to exceed the BA projection, and Varitek the only one to exceed the SLG expectations. Another out.

Jay Payton, Right Field
200 PA 287/340/451 6HR 27 RC 2005 proj
144 PA 263/312/429 5HR 18 RC 2005 act

Payton was traded midway through the year, and was on pace to exceed the playing time projections. His batting average fell short, but the other numbers (isolated from BA) were right in line. But it’s another out.

The Monkee is 4-9 with a double and a home run, and now Big Papi steps to the plate.

David Ortiz, Designated hitter
573 PA 292/370/582 33 HR 108 RC 2005 proj
713 PA 300/397/604 47 HR 146 RC 2005 act

Ortiz’ playing time projection was short because he only had one season as a full-timer in the three-year mix. Papi had a tremendous season, better than the projection expected, and better than I predicted. (I called for about a “two-win decline” from 2004. In fact, Papi was more than a win better based on his 12-run increase in runs created.)

Overall, the Monkee projections were somewhat optimistic for last year. Varitek was spot on. Mueller, Damon, and Manny were reasonably in line with the projections (after my subjective adjustment for Mueller). Papi did better than the Monkee thought that he would. Renteria, Nixon and Payton fell short, primarily due to batting average. Millar and Bellhorn came up way short of expectations. Could be better, but could be worse, and a continuing refrain in my analysis of the projections last season was how optimistic I thought that they were.

I’m going to do the projections again this year (because crunching numbers is fun!), but this exercise seems to indicate that there is some value in the process as well.