Annual Monkee Review

The Red Sox rode strong pitching and a solid offense to their second World Series Championship in four years. The feeling throughout the season was that the offense in general failed to live up to expectations. Was that true? We here at the SeaBlog have a projection system that we call the Monkee, and it’s time now to see how well the Monkee did at projecting the 2007 Red Sox.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee Projection
518 PA 255/367/421 17 HR 70 RC actual

We were looking for a bounce-back season for Varitek following a dismal 2006 season, and the captain did bounce back for a decent season. Before the season I suggested that the Monkee might be a bit optimistic and that turns out to have been the case. The increased walk rate might actually be a big red flag for Varitek, as it could be a sign that he is losing confidence in his swing and looking more to take a walk. His HR total was right on the projection, but his power continued to flag as it did in 2006 (IsoP of .167 vs. .162 in 2006). ‘Tek remained healthy throughout the season, which is a good sign, but his offense is no longer the asset it once was.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
625 PA 288/390/453 16 HR 100 RC Actual

Youkilis continued to improve at the plate, despite a heavy swoon in the second half. His BA/OBP were basically in line with the projection, but Youk yanked a few extra homers to build up his SLG.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Monkee
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe’s SeaBlog prediction
581 PA 317/380/442 8 HR 91 RC Actual

Since the Monkee had little to work with, we simply made up a projection for Pedroia’s rookie year. Dustin surprised even the SeaBlog in hitting well over .300 on his way to the Rookie of the Year Award. Pedroia’s walk rate was a bit lower than expected, which I think is a reflection of his being a little too patient and falling behind early in the count. When he swings, he tends to put the ball in play - Pedroia was the second-most difficult player in the league to strike out – and fortunately with solid contact. Obviously he has good strike zone judgment, and I think his walk rate will improve as he gains experience.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
611 PA 272/335/447 19HR 83RC Projection
653 PA 324/378/501 21 HR 109 RC Actual

The Monkee wasn’t the only one – I don’t think anybody saw this season coming from Mike Lowell. The steady third baseman took advantage of the friendly confines of Fenway Park and a.337 batting average on balls in play (BABIP), which was 50 points better than his career average. In other words, it was a fluke season. But a good fluke to have, as Lowell capped things off by being named Most Valuable Player in the World Series.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC projection
630 PA 237/294/349 8 HR 63 RC Actual

The Monkee and I were certain that Lugo would be a significant improvement over Alex Gonzalez with the bat. The Monkee and I were wrong. Lugo was the Anti-Lowell, with a BABIP of 50 points below his career norms (.262 vs. .312). Combine this with a walk rate right in line with his career norms and a strikeout rate actually a bit lower than normal, and I see a rebound coming for 2008.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127 RC Projection
569 PA 296/388/493 20 HR 91 RC Actual

Manny not being Manny. The BA and OBP were hinted at in the 2005 season, but Manny’s power numbers were far and away the worst of his illustrious career. The silver lining is that the home run swing came back in the post season. Here’s hoping it was lingering injury effects and not a permanent slide in his ability.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71 RC Projection
591 PA 268/330/382 6 HR 69 RC Actual

Coco Crisp was another guy from whom we were looking for a return to form in 2007, but it didn’t happen. The power stroke that saw him hitting 42 doubles and 16 homers in his last season in Cleveland never appeared. In its place, unfortunately, was a slappy speedster swing from a guy who didn’t get on base all that much. Coco appears to have played himself out of a job after Jacoby Ellsbury hit .353 in 33 late-season games.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89 RC Projection
552 PA 270/373/423 11 HR 77 RC Actual

Another guy of whom I was confident that he could at least outperform the guy he replaced (in this case Trot Nixon), but that didn’t really happen. Drew’s BA and OBP were lower than his career norms and about the same that Nixon provided in 2006. While Drew did out-power Nixon, his slugging percentage was well below his career standards, and even then was only salvaged by a September power surge. It is that September performance (4 HR, 1.072 OPS) that has me optimistic for him next year.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC Projection
172 PA 218/291/385 5 HR 16 RC Actual

Uhh, if you include what Wily Mo did following his trade to the Nationals in August, the Monkee doesn’t look so bad. But, no. WiMP was a no-show for the Sox. Thank goodness Jacoby came along and made us forget about him.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC Projection
667 PA 332/445/621 35 HR 156 RC Actual

Practically everybody in Red Sox Nation thinks that Big Papi had an off season. This is primarily because both his home run and RBI numbers were down from previous years. This is far from the truth, however. Papi’s batting average and OBP were absolutely huge, and the lumbering DH scored 30 runs more than his closest teammate (Pedroia with 86). The popular conception is that Mike Lowell and his 120 RBI was Boston’s MVP, but it’s really Papi in a landslide.

The 10 projections break out as follows:
Too pessimistic: 2 (Pedroia, Lowell)
Too optimistic: 5 (Lugo, Ramirez, Crisp, Drew, Pena)
About right: 3 (Varitek, Youkilis, Ortiz)

It’s a continuing trend for the Monkee to be somewhat optimistic. Unfortunately, we don’t have the time or ability to figure out where things usually go wrong. In this case, two of the guys were new to Boston this season, two were injured last year, and one guy never got to play. We’ll call it “extenuating circumstances” for all five!