The 2007 Monkee

For the third consecutive year, I have performed the overly simplistic calculations that go into my annual Monkee projections for the Boston Red Sox. I am hoping that these projections don’t prove to be overly optimistic for the third consecutive year. Last season’s lineup was plagued by sub-standard contributions from several positions, then finally sunk by the injury that kept slugger Manny Ramirez out of the lineup for the final month of the season. With new players replacing some of the weaker links from last season and a return to form from a few others, the Red Sox are hoping to resume their normal position among the top run scoring teams in the major leagues.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
416 PA 238/325/400 12HR 47 Runs Created 2006
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee prediction

Varitek was the most consistent batter on the Red Sox from 2003-2005. In 2006, however, it looked like age finally caught up to him. ‘Tek suffered a huge dropoff that may have been due in part to injury, in part to his excess workload associated with the World Baseball Classic, and in part to age. At least one of those factors won’t be in play this year, and hopefully the captain can stay healthy. It’s reasonable to predict that Varitek will bounce back somewhat in 2007, but I think the Monkee is a bit optimistic with this line.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
680 PA 279/381/429 13HR 92RC 2006
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis had a good year at first base for the Red Sox last year, providing an expected solid OBP with little pop and a good glove. His lack of power keeps me from thinking of Youkilis as an asset in the lineup, but one could certainly do worse. Since last season was his first as a full-time player in the majors, the Monkee is pessimistic on this playing time. Youkilis seems to be a pretty durable guy, so I’ve projected out more playing time. I think Youkilis will likely exceed his predicted line, making up for Varitek’s probable shortfall.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
703 PA 285/344/361 5HR 77RC 2006 Mark Loretta
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Pedroia Monkee projection
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe;s SeaBlog prediction

The Monkee has very little to work with for Pedroia: 98 sub-par plate appearances. Those who have followed this blog for the last couple of years know that I am very high on Boston’s young second baseman, and I think he’ll have a pretty good year. I’ve put in what I think is a realistic and potentially conservative prediction for him. Regardless, I pretty much guarantee that he will provide more offense than Mark Loretta did last season. My pet peeve over the winter was listening to Red Sox fans wonder why the Sox were going with Pedroia, instead of re-signing Loretta and letting Pedroia have another year in AAA. The great misconception is that Loretta had a good year last season, while Pedroia proved that he wasn’t ready for the big show. On count number one, I say bollocks – Loretta did a good job of putting the ball in play, but his punch-and-judy act was no asset to the lineup. On count number two, I also say bollocks. Pedroia hit for a low average, but he put the ball in play and was not overmatched by major league pitching. Furthermore, he had a terrific season at AAA. There is nothing to be gained by having him return to the minors, and there is no reason to think that he won’t provide more offense (and probably better defense) than Loretta did last season.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
631 PA 284/339/475 20HR 92RC 2006
611 PA 272/335/447 79HR 83RC 2007

Lowell had a nice bounceback last year following a disastrous 2005 season in which he hit only 8 home runs for the Marlins. Lowell had a typical Mike Lowell season last year, but the Monkee thinks he’ll fall back a little bit, and I tend to agree. My other pet peeve over the winter relates to people who suggested that Lowell’s second-half struggles are indicative of a continuation of his downward career spiral. In fact, Lowell’s first- and second-half splits almost exactly matched his career norms. I think Lowell will continue to provide a good glove and decent bat from the 6^th or 7^th spot in the lineup in 2007.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
429 PA 255/294/397 9HR 45RC 2006 Alex Gonzalez
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC 2007 Lugo projection

Lugo probably won’t provide the same defense as Gonzalez, but the 50-point improvement in OBP will more than offset any potential downgrade with the glove. Lugo will assume leadoff duties for the Sox, and should provide a fine spark at the top of the order.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
558 PA 321/439/619 35HR 124RC 2006
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127RC 2006

Manny was having a tremendous season before a controversial injury basically ended his season in August. He’s a great hitter, and he’ll have another great season with the bat this year, but his erratic behavior is wearing thin among Red Sox fans, this one included. And he has to hit to have value, as he is among the worst fielders in the league. Here’s hoping for 150+ games with a 1,000 OPS and fans again being happy with Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
452 PA 264/312/385 8HR 50RC 2006
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71RC 2007

Coco was another in a string of disappointments with the 2006 Red Sox. Crisp had a great first week of the season, then got hurt and was never the same. Ideally, Crisp will provide decent on-base skills and a fair amount of pop. If he stays healthy, expect something on the order of 85 runs created or better.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
453 PA 268/373/394 8HR 55RC 2006 Trot Nixon
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89RC 2007 Drew Projection

The most controversial signing of the off season was the five-year deal that Boston gave to JD Drew. The oft-injured right fielder is seen as a “soft” player, compared to the tough-as-nails Nixon. I care more about production than having a guy run through a wall, and it’s not like Nixon is any stranger to the DL. Nixon has declined terribly in the last couple of years, and his sub-Gonzo slugging percentage was embarrassing. Drew brings terrific on-base skills and good power, and he should fit in nicely behind Ramirez. If he can stay in the lineup for 140 or more games, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Nixon this season.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
304 PA 301/349/489 11HR 47 RC 2006
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC 2007

If Drew or any of the other outfielders becomes injured, Wily Mo will be called upon to fill in. If everybody stays healthy, I think the plate appearance projection, and probably the rest of the numbers, will turn out to be optimistic. Wily Mo has intriguing potential, particularly in terms of power. Pena seemed to sacrifice some power for improved batting average last season. I think he’ll find more of a power stroke this year, given the opportunity to hit. He’s a nice insurance policy for the lineup.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC 2006
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC 2007

Big Papi had his third straight career year, so the Monkee predicts a bit of a decline for the third straight year, albeit a minor one. Nobody will be disappointed if he puts up the numbers shown above. It would be another monster season from the perennial MVP candidate.

Boston’s success this season depends largely on bounce back seasons from Varitek and Crisp, and better production from Drew, Lugo and Pedroia than was attained by their predecessors. The Monkee sees this happening pretty much across the board: Varitek +20 runs created, Pedroia +8, Lugo +30, Crisp +21 and Drew +34 add up to a whopping 103 runs more than last season. The remainder of the lineup – Papi, Manny, Youkilis and Lowell, all seem to me to be pretty consistent, with Lowell being the most vulnerable of the four. Of course, I said the same thing about Varitek last spring, and he fell off the cliff. Still, I think the lineup will be much improved and, combined with an stronger rotation, will lead to a much improved team in 2007. Later this week, I’ll look at the rotation and wrap up my (almost) pre-season predictions.