Saturday, October 10, 2009

Yay for the Monkee

Huh! Is it playoff time already? Indeed it is, and the Red Sox are once again embroiled with the Angels. Let’s take this opportunity to see how the Monkee did in predicting batting performance this season.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee
425 PA: 209/313/390, 14 HR, 47 RC actual

Well, the power figures exceeded expectations. The captain was actually having a pretty decent season, going into the All Star break with an .826 OPS and 13 homers. Afterward he hit .157 with one home run, with the free fall really taking stride when Boston acquired Victor Martinez at the trade deadline. And thank goodness for that. Varitek probably doesn’t warrant anything other than a third catcher/bullpen coach role next year.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee
588 PA: 304/413/548, 27 HR, 117 RC actual

The Monkee and I were skeptical of Youk’s power surge in 2008, but he proved us wrong this year. I still think this will be a short-term fad, but I’m not complaining. Youk improved his walk rate a bit again this year.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee
714 PA: 296/371/443, 15 HR, 105 RC actual

The reigning MVP won’t repeat that honor this year. Pedroia’s batting average dropped by quite a bit, which is also directly reflected in his slugging figure. Before the season I predicted that Pedroia would improve his walk rate this year, and that was borne out. So I got that going for me.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee
484 PA: 290/337/494, 17 HR, 63 RC actual

Lowell’s hip injury cost him some playing time again this year. BA and slugging were pretty accurate, but his walk rate, which was never great to begin with, is slipping.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee
123 PA: 284/352/367, 1 HR, 16 RC actual (Boston only)

Well, Lugo was hurt and couldn’t play, then he came back and couldn’t field, so he still didn’t play. Meantime Jed Lowrie got hurt and had surgery. Meantime Nick Green had a few good games and fooled everyone into thinking he could handle an everyday shortstop job. Then Lugo got traded away, Alex Gonzalez got traded for, and Green got hurt. Though lacking power, Lugo did outperform his Monkee-projected slash rates for the Sox, then continued to do so with the Cardinals. This was expected, because his execrable 2007 season was weighted into this mix.

LF Jason Bay (30)
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee
638 PA: 267/384/567, 36 HR, 117 RC actual

Not too bad of a prediction. Once again the Monkee shortchanged the power numbers. Bay’s walk rate was also better than normal. Bay was another guy with a crappy 2007 season in the mix, which helped keep the prediction down.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC Monkee
691 PA: 301/355/415, 8 HR, 99 RC actual

The Monkee did well with Ellsbury, too. Jacoby had a slightly higher BA, which flow through the other slash stats. Ellsbury’s team-record 70 steals are reflected in the inflated runs created number.

RF JD Drew (33)
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee
529 PA: 279/392/522, 24HR, 96 RC actual

The Monkee was damn close with Drew, once again only missing out on the power numbers. Once again, a poor 2007 season depressed that projection.

DH David Ortiz (33)
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee
627 PA: 238/332/462, 28 HR, 86 RC actual.

Here’s one that the Monkee didn’t do to good on. Ortiz didn’t hit at all for the first two months of the year, which doomed his slash stats. He did make a comeback through the rest of the year in terms of home runs, but this is nothing short of disappointing for Ortiz.

Overall, this was one of the best years for the Monkee. Varitek and Ortiz both fell short of expectations, but this was mostly related to age-related decline that this type of system won’t pick up. A few other guys showed more power than the Monkee precicted, but overall everything was within the ballpark of the predictions. So yay for the Monkee!

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