2006 Monkee Predictions

As I did last season, I will here attempt to project the performance of the 2006 Boston Red Sox. (If you look a little below on this page, you will see where I reviewed the results of my first foray into the world of performance projection.) To refresh your memories, I use a rather simplistic projection system that I call the Monkee system, because a) it’s easy enough that a monkey could do it, b) I like that fact that TangoTiger named his “monkey” projection system (Marcel, after the monkey featured in Friends), and c) the Monkees were fun but not to be taken too seriously, like my projection system. Today I will look at the starting lineup. Pitching doesn’t lend itself to this kind of projection like hitting does, so later I will do a more qualitative preview of the staff.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 34)
539 PA 281/365/489 22HR 84 Runs Created 2005
534 PA 284/370/491 21HR 84 RC 2006

It doesn’t seem like much of an analysis to predict that a guy will basically have exactly the same stats as he did the year before. However, ‘Tek has been extremely consistent over the last three years. So much so that the Monkee almost exactly nailed his 2005 performance. Catchers in their mid 30’s are known to fall off the cliff, offensively, with little warning. As a result, I would suggest that Varitek is much more likely to fall way short of this projection than he is to exceed it. Saying he won’t get there, however, is like saying the Braves won’t win the NL East. You know it’s going to happen some time, but it’s hard to call it for the upcoming season.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (27)
519 PA 272/355/399 9HR 63RC 2005 Kevin Millar
126 PA 265/378/409 3HR 16RC 2006 Monkee
550 PA 265/378/409 12HR 69 RC 2006 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis takes over for Kevin Millar, who was terrible last season. Youkilis’ career rates are superior to those posted by Millar last season, despite a lack of steady playing time over the last two years. Youks is entering his age 27 season, which is generally one of a player’s peak years, so he’s likely to take a step forward. It’s also worth noting that he destroyed AAA pitching last year. I believe he’s ready for a full-time gig in the Show. His defense can’t be worse than Millar’s was, either. I look for a step forward at this position. And if the remaining first base at bats go more to Hee Seop Choi than to JT Snow, all the better from an offensive perspective.

Second Base: Mark Loretta (34)
535 PA 257/338/399 11HR 64RC 2005 Mark Bellhorn / Tony Graffanino
584 PA 311/374/430 9HR 83RC 2006 Loretta projection

Last season, as not predicted in this space, was a disaster for Mark Bellhorn. Tony Graffanino played well for the Sox after being acquired from the Royals, but was well over his career norms, particularly in slugging percentage. The Red Sox basically stole Loretta from the Padres for backup catcher Doug Mirabelli. Loretta has excellent on-base skills and pretty good pop in the form of doubles power. His slugging percentage was way down last year (.347), but it’s hard to know how much to attribute to age, injuries, or pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. If I were a betting man, I’d say that Loretta won’t have quite the SLG that the Monkee projects, but that his OBP will make him a solid improvement in the lineup.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (32)
590 PA 295/369/430 10HR 82RC 2005 Bill Mueller
589 PA 265/337/447 19HR 80RC 2006 Lowell Projection

Mike Lowell is another guy who had a disastrous 2006 season, but this time he’s coming to the Sox following it, unlike Millar and Bellhorn. The Monkee puts a lot of weight on the most recent season, but also acknowledges the likelihood that a player will regress to his established performance if he has an outlier season. Such a bounceback for Lowell should result in about the same level of production at third base in 2006. Last season Bill Mueller had a typical Bill Mueller season. Lowell’s a different guy. He’ll post a lower batting average and OBP, but hit with more power. Given that he’s coming from pitcher-friendly Pro Player Stadium in Miami, there’s some upside potential in these numbers. I’m going to go with the Monkee and call third base a wash this year.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez (29)
692 PA 276/332/385 8HR 80RC 2005 Edgar Renteria
540 PA 250/297/404 14HR 591RC 2006 Gonzalez projection

The Monkee is projecting a 21 run dropoff at the shortstop position, which would be a two-win decline from last season. The good news, however, is that most of that will come in the form of fewer plate appearances. Whereas Renteria spent most of last season in the two hole, Gonzalez will bat ninth, and will certainly be pinch hit for on a regular basis, unlike Edgar. Gonzalez’ power took a major drop last year, so the .404 slugging might be ambitious. On the other hand, Alex should have an OBP over .300 (if not by much). Like Lowell, Gonzalez’ numbers will probably improve simply by the virtue of not playing half of his games in Miami. I think he’s pretty much the same batter as Renteria, and he can’t do any worse than Edgar was with the leather last season, so call it another wash.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
650 PA 292/388/594 45HR 126RC 2005
660 PA 305/399/599 43HR 133RC 2006

Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
688 PA 316/366/439 10HR 101RC 2005 Johnny Damon
573 PA 293/391/438 13HR 79RC 2006 Monkee
688 PA 293/391/438 15HR 94RC 2006 Joe’s SeaBlog

There was much hand-wringing about Boston’s failure to re-sign Johnny Damon. Then the Sox traded for Coco Crisp, and all was right with the world again. Crisp is just as good a hitter as Damon right now and, at age 26, is still on the upswing. The Joe’s Sea Blog projection puts Crisp’s playing time at a more reasonable level than the Monkee was projecting. I fully expect Coco to do better than what I’ve shown above, particularly on the slugging line. He gets on base and should get a ton of doubles. The Fenway Faithful will love him before the All Star break.

Right Field: Trot Nixon (32)
470 PA 275/357/446 13HR 65RC 2005
378 PA 290/371/493 14HR 61RC 2006 Monkee
475 PA 290/371/493 17HR 74RC 2005 Joe’s SeaBlog

Here we again make a playing time projection, as the PA’s were diluted by Trot’s 2004 injury problems. Trot always has injury problems, however, so there’s no guarantee he’ll get to his usual 120-130 games played. I also think that the projection is a bit optimistic. The injuries are taking their toll on Nixon’s body. I expect his numbers will be closer to the 2005 actuals than the ’06 projections.

Right Field: Wily Mo Pena (24)
248 PA 257/298/396 6HR 27 RC 2005 Jay Payton / Gabe Kaplar
250 PA 252/306/489 15HR 34 RC 2006 Pena Joe’s SeaBlog projection.

It’s become clear that Nixon needs a platoon/injury partner in right field, and Theo Epstein made a great move in acquiring Wily Mo Pena. Just 24, Wily Mo is on the upswing of his career but has already shown prodigious power. He should hit better than this based on normal career development (as was the case with Crisp), but if most of his PA’s are against lefties, all the better still. Even with somewhat limited plate appearances, Wily Mo will likely provide the biggest area of improvement in the Boston lineup outside of Mark Loretta.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
713 PA 300/397/604 47 HR 146 RC 2005
656 PA 298/387/602 42 HR 131 RC 2006

Another great year for Papi, but probably a decline from last year. One must predict a decline from a career year, and besides, it’s unlikely Papi will make it to the plate 700 times again in 2006. But we’ll take these numbers in a heartbeat.

Boston’s lineup is much changed from last season, with six of the guys above different from the guys I was writing about last year at this time. Still, it looks to be as good on paper as last year’s team. I expect a decline in only two positions this season – one to a somewhat lower place in the stratosphere (DH Ortiz), and one due to a rightful decline in plate appearances (SS Gonzalez). And for Gonzalez’ sake, most of the dropped plate appearances will be taken by better hitters, so this may be a net positive for the lineup. I must acknowledge the distinct possibility that Varitek and Lowell won’t meet the projections that the Monkee has set out for them.

I’m also showing only two positions with improvement, 2B with Mark Loretta and RH RF with Wily Mo Pena. Youkilis (and Choi?) could also be a big step forward, and I think Coco Crisp will be better than the 2006 version of Johnny Damon, but in line with the 2005 version in terms of production. All other positions should be about the same.

The 2005 Red Sox led the American League with 910 runs scored. It’s to the front office’s credit that they were able to completely revamp the lineup but continue to field a team that could reach 900 runs again in 2006.