Hardball Times Prospects, Continued

Aaron Gleeman is continuing to post his Top 50 prospects for 2006 list. Last time, I speculated that Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia were surely both still to come, while Anibal Sanchez may or may not be on the top 50 list.

Now we have the answers.

Anibal Sanchez is indeed on the list, coming in at #40. Gleeman touts Sanchez' outstanding K/BB ratios, but says "the reason Sanchez isn't ranked higher is that he reportedly experienced a significant drop in velocity down the stretch last season and has been dealing with shoulder tendinitis this spring." The arm troubles have kept others from ranking Sanchez higher, but if he stays healthy, I believe he'll have a terrific career.

In the same article, Gleeman ranks Dustin Pedroia at #36. Frankly, I'm surprised he's not listed higher. He's not a Huge Upside guy, but at the same time I believe he's a Can't Miss. Pedroia simply swings a terrific bat. He's not going to hit 30 homers a year, but he is going to hit over .300 and have solid OBP and SLG figures. There's a lot of value in that. There's no mention about why Dustin's not higher, but Gleeman does say that "Pedroia is only 22, but he's a league-average middle infielder whenever and wherever the Red Sox decide they need him." Meaning, today Pedroia could step into the lineup and be a league average performer at either short or second. Which, of course, makes him better than the guy playing shortstop this season. Gonzalez is only signed to a one-year contract, however, and I'll bet dollars to donuts that Pedroia is in the lineup on Opening Day of 2007.

Jon Lester shows up in the next segment, listed at #33. "While Jon Papelbon arrived in the majors first, Lester has a good shot at being Boston's best homegrown starter down the road." I thought that Lester was as good as Papelbon last season, but he's younger and there should be no rush to get him to Boston. He'll be there sometime this year, I'm guessing.

So you have five guys who played in Portland last year among the top 50 prospects in baseball. That's astounding. That's not to mention the one additional guy who is surely coming up - Craig Hansen. The Sox also briefly held Andy Marte, who should be toward the top of the list despite being traded twice in the offseason.

I don't believe that any of the 2006 Sea Dogs will appear on the list, however. How fortunate we were to have such a terrific accumulation of talent in Portland last summer. Five of these guys will be in the majors at some point this season, I would guess. Papelbon and possibly Hansen will go north with the Sox next week, and Hanley Ramirez will be with the Marlins as the season opens, while Lester and Pedroia will be in Boston in September at the latest. Earlier if injuries or performance so dictates. Only Sanchez, who may start the year in AA for Florida, is likely to have to wait a year to get to the show.