Dogs sweep Cats

The Portland Sea Dogs completed a three-game sweep of the New Hampshire Fisher Cats with a crisp 3-0 victory on Sunday afternoon. Denney Tomori was very impressive in outdueling Josh Banks. Tomori allowed just four base hits while striking out six in 6.2 innings, and picked up his first victory as a Sea Dog. Banks, who was pitching very strong at the beginning of the season but has struggled a bit lately, was undone by a couple of errors by first baseman Chip Cannon in a three run fourth inning. The game was completed in a quick two hours and ten minutes. Portland now leads second place Trenton, which was swept by the Akron Aeros, by three games. New Hampshire has now lost ten games in a row and sits four games below .500.

Scorer's Notes:

• Tomori can throw in the low 90's, but he's really a junkball pitcher at heart. Slinging the ball with a sidearm delivery, he's reminiscent of Luis Tiant in that he throws a variety of pitches at a of speeds in a variety of locations. The batter simply cannot guess what is coming next, especially when Tomori is throwing them all for strikes. When a pitcher gets a strikeout, I note what pitch was thrown for strike three. For a couple of Tomori's K's, however, I had to append a question mark. I know it was 73 mph, which is the speed of his curveball, but it didn't look like a curveball. Slow change? I dunno.
• Josh Banks was also very impressive. His out pitch is his changeup, which was responsible for three of his five K's on the afternoon. Banks didn't walk anybody and gave up five hits in allowing just one earned run in six innings pitched.
• Jim Mann put an exclamation point on the fine pitching for the afternoon. Recently rescued from the independent Nashua Pride and now the Portland closer, Mann struck out the Fisher Cats on just ten pitches to finish the game.
• Jim Buckley was the offensive hero for the Sea Dogs with two hits, a stolen base, and the only RBI of the game. The steal was a peculiar one, as he was running on a failed hit and run. Buckley practically came to a stop between first and second, hoping to get into a rundown with Brandon Moss on third base, but Erik Kratz held on to the ball and Buckley strolled into second base.

Perez Traded / Papelbon makes major league debut.

In the category of former Sea Dogs news:

Sea Dogs infielder Kenny Perez was traded to the Arizona Diamondbacks for major league outfielder Jose Cruz Jr. Cruz fills a need on the major league roster now that Trot Nixon is out with an injured back. He's a former gold glove winner with some power. Cruz is a low-batting average guy - he's hitting .213 this season and .248 for his career - but he draws a fair amount of walks, thus achieving a decent on base percentage. With 12 homers for Arizona this season, Cruz now has 187 on his career. Perez is a good middle infielder in an organization with a bunch of outstanding middle infielders in the minors. I think he'll make it to the big leagues, but he'll probably have a better chance to play in Arizona than he would have in Boston. This is a good move for the Red Sox, dealing from an area where they have some strength, and not really weakening their minor league system in filling a need.

Meanwhile, Jon Papelbon made his major league debut today, starting in Fenway against the Minnesota Twins. It was a quick ride for Papelbon, who was filling in for Matt Clement. While Papelbon didn't have the pinpoint control that we've come to expect from him, issuing five walks in 5.1 innings, he did show signs of dominance in allowing just four hits and striking out seven. Two of the hits were solo home runs, which was reminiscent of his time in Portland. The radio announcers said that Papelbon hit 95 on the radar. I never saw him above 92 in Portland, so maybe he had some extra adrenaline today. Or maybe the Portland radar isn't calibrated the same as the Boston radar. It was an impressive debut for Paps, though he'll probably be returned to Pawtucket roster when Clement is ready to start again.

In other news - apparently there is no other news on the trade front, after all of the Manny Ramirez and A.J. Burnett rumors. I'm glad that the Sox didn't make a move for the sake of making a move, and I'm glad that none of the premier prospects were traded today.

Friday Night W vs. Fisher Cats

The Sea Dogs moved back into first place on Friday night with a 5-3 victory over the New Hampshire Fisher Cats. Portland's David Pauley wasn't particularly sharp in allowing 8 hits over five innings pitched, however he allowed only two runs (one unearned) to collect his 7th victory in outdueling top prospect David Purcey. Coupled with Trenton's loss, the win puts the Sea Dogs back into sole posession of first place in the EL North.

Scorer's Notes:

• As noted previously, Purcey was making his AA debut. A 2004 first round draft pick out of the University of Oklahoma, Purcey appeared to be very raw. He's a big lefty with a herky-jerky motion who throws in the low-mid 90's and mixes in a curveball and changeup. Purcey struggled with his command, particularly early, and was consistantly throwing his curveball into the dirt in front of the plate. As he went along his control improved and he settled down over his last four innings. He allowed four runs (three earned) on four hits and four walks over six innings, striking out three. Purcey will have to get his stuff under control to succeed at the AA level. He doesn't have the fastball to dominate batters if he can't get his breaking stuff into the strike zone consistently.
• This was my first look at converted catcher Edgar Martinez, who is now a relief pitcher for Portland. Martinez, whose physique resembles that of El Guapo, was tipping the radar at 95 mph and he blew away Miguel Negron to end his inning-and-a-third stint. Martinez has pretty good control (only four balls in 18 pitches, 49/14 K/BB ratio in 38 IP on the season, and if he develops a consistent off-speed pitch he'll be another bright arm in the Red Sox system.
• I'm not sure why the Sea Dogs seem to have such difficulty with number nine hitters, but SS Raul Tablado proved a difficult out, going 3-4 and hitting the ball solidly each time up.
• This was also my first look at second baseman Scott Youngbauer. Youngbauer has struggled with the bat in AA this season, but he appears to be a very good fielder in the middle of the diamond, with good range and soft hands. He's very aggressive with the bat - probably a little too aggressive for the Red Sox liking. Youngbauer doesn't appear attempt to work the count, swinging early and often in the count.

Fisher Cat Prospect Update

Since the Fisher Cats are coming to town, let’s update who on the current roster is a prospect, and how they are faring.

David Purcey (LHP, ranked #2). Purcey was recently recalled from class A Dunedin, where he pitched 21 games (94.1 IP) with a 3.63 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, and 116/56 K/BB ratio. The strikeouts and ERA look good, but he’s allowed a lot of walks and his WHIP is high. The ERA is less impressive when you see that he’s also allowed 13 unearned runs. Scheduled to make his New Hamphshire debut in tonight’s game, so I’ll get a chance to report back on him.

Josh Banks (RHP, #4) started the season off strong, but has cooled somewhat. 20 starts for NH, 113 IP with a 4.38 ERA but with an excellent 1.11 WHIP and a so-good-it's-silly 101/8 K/BB ratio. I believe that he's slated for Saturday's start.

Ismael Ramirez (RHP, #15) has been a workhorse: 21 starts, 119.1 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, fine control with a 97/23 K/BB ratio.

Vince Perkins (RHP, #16) has made 16 starts (18 total appearances) with 85 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 70/34 K/BB. Quite similar to Ramirez, though Ismael seems a little more polished with his command.

Curtis Thigpen (C, #18) was recently promoted from the Lansing Lugnuts (one of the best nicknames in baseball), where he it 287/397/413-5-35 in 79 games. Good plate discipline (54 BB vs. just 34 K's), but not a lot of power. Not bad for a catcher, though. Has had a slow start in his first nine games with the Fischer Cats: 206/270/324-1-5 with just two walks vs. 8 K's. Not nearly enough playing time to make a judgment on those numbers, however, especially considering that he skipped a level with the promotion.

Toronto has been fairly aggressive promoting players through the system this year. One player who was on my original evaluation of New Hampshire, Shaun Marcum, was promoted to Syracuse after posting a 2.53 ERA in nine AA starts. Dustin McGowan (RHP, #9) is technically still on the roster, but the word is that he'll be pitching for Toronto this weekend, so he's not coming to Portland. He started the season in Dunedin and has pitched just six games for New Hampshire (35 IP, 3.34 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). Zach Jackson is another guy who has passed through, starting in Dunedin, then 9 games with the Fisher Cats (54 IP, 4.00 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) after Marcum was promoted, and now he's in Syracuse.

While members of the prospect list make up the pitching leaders for New Hampshire, the top hitters are not among the top prospects. Rob Cosby (310/350/520-12-44 in 81 games) and Ryan Roberts (264/369/509-12/34 in 58 games) are the big bats, while Miguel Negron (257/303/369-6-25, 18 steals ) is the low-OBP speed guy in the lineup. Overall, it doesn't appear to be a very potent offensive team.

BA Interview with Mark Rogers

With the Sea Dogs rained out yesterday and no transactions to talk about, I looked around for a topic for today’s post. Fortunately Baseball America came through with an interview with Harpswell native Mark Rogers, who is currently toiling for the West Virginia Power, Milwaukee’s low-A entry in the South Atlantic League. Rogers recently earned his first professional win, and is improving following a rough start to the season. His primary focus, however, is getting consistent with his mechanics, which will help him succeed as he advances through the system.

Last year in the short-season Arizona Rookie League Rogers pitched 26.2 innings with a very good 35/14 K/BB ratio, however he allowed 30 hits for a 1.65 WHIP and 4.72 ERA. This season his hit rate is down (61 in 68.3 innings), but his walk rate is up, so his WHIP is still pretty high at 1.54, though he continues to strike batters out (78 on the season) with his upper-90’s heat. Given that he’s working on his mechanics and developing his repertoire of pitches – he could dominate high school batters with his fastball and an average curve ball – I’d rather see the walks than a lot of hits. I think that the control will come over time.

Rogers is still a raw prospect, but he has a lot of physical gift. Lots of kids who come to the minor leagues with big fastballs can’t get enough together to make it to the show. Rogers seems like an intelligent and mature young man, so I have hopes for him. If he gains command of his considerable stuff, he could be a top-line starter in the big leagues some day. Best of luck to him!

Dogs lose / Deschenes Promoted

On the very same day that I touted him as the guy I prefer to Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester struggled on the mound and was the losing pitcher in Portland's 9-4 loss to the New Britain Rock Cats. Lester got into a high pitch count by walking four and striking out six in 4.2 innings of work This is similar to a couple of the starts that he had earlier in the year, and may have been the result of a little rust after his previous start was skipped.

Meanwhile, Papelbon picked up his first AAA victory by pitching five strong innings, allowing just four hits and one walk while striking out 8 in Pawtucket's 9-1 victory over Buffalo. In doing so, Papelbon lowered his Pawtucket ERA to 3.57 and increased his K/BB ratio to a very impressive 21/2. The final two innings of the game (the first game of a double header) were pitched by recently promoted Marc Deschenes, who allowed two hits and struck out two batters. This marked Deschenes' first AAA action since 2002 when he pitched in four games with the Iowa Cubs. Deschenes hasn't had too much success at this level (he also pitched for Buffalo in 2001), recording a 6.49 ERA and 2.02 WHIP (with an equally ugly 32/27 K/BB ratio) in 34.2 innings. Deschenes has probably been the most consistent reliever for Portland this season, but less effective than expected. He appeared in 39 games and pitching 43.1 innings for the Sea Dogs with a 3.74 ERA and 1.52 WHIP, but with a fine 54/24 K/BB ratio (11.2 K/9 - very nice!). He's also allowed six unearned runs this season. Coming on the heels of a year where he pitched 33 innings with a 2.45 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, this performance has to be somewhat disappointing for both Deschenes and the Sea Dogs. No move has yet been made to fill his spot on the Portland roster.

Deschenes, of course, was sent up to fill Manny Delcarmen's roster spot. Delcarmen made his major league debut in Tampa last night, pitching a perfect 8th inning and striking out the first batter he faced (Johnny Gomes), however he was hit by a ball off the bat of Alex Gonzalez in recording the final out. After the ball hit off Matt Clement's head earlier in the game, Delcarmen's incident was fairly minor. Delcarmen ("the other Manny") looked fairly poised and did a decent job in throwing strikes during his debut.

Delcarmen Promoted / Trade Musings

Manny Delcarmen became the latest Sea Dog to make the leap to the big leagues, getting the call to join the Red Sox today. Early season control problems led to a slow start for him in Portland, but he rebounded for a 3.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 49/20 K/BB ratio in 39 innings before being recalled to Pawtucket on July 6. In seven appearances for the PawSox, Delcarmen allowed three runs on nine hits and four walks over 9.2 innings, striking out 14 in the process. Delcarmen's fastball reaches the upper 90's and can be devastating, especially when he throws it and his off speed stuff for strikes. His sharp-breaking curveball is a knee buckler, and impossible to hit when the batter is looking for heat. Hopefully he can throw strikes and get a couple of good innings under his belt to gain some confidence, because he can help the Red Sox this season. Otherwise he might follow the footsteps of Cla Meredith as someone who looks like he needs more minor league seasoning.

There is speculation that this move is designed to showcase Delcarmen for a possible trade by the end of the week. The Red Sox are locked in a tight divisional race with the Yankees and Orioles and could clearly use some help, especially pitchers and a first baseman. There are a lot of nice prospects in the Red Sox system, and they could make a deal or two without ruining the minor league system. Here's how I would handle the various prospects in making a deadline deal (note that I am less familiar with the guys below AA, so I won't really be discussing them):

Pitchers:
Untouchable: Jon Lester and Anibal Sanchez. Lester is, in my opinion, the best pitching prospect in the system, a 21 year old lefthander with a 2.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 119 K's vs. 36 walks in 103 innings pitched. Sanchez is a little behind Lester in his development. At 22 years of age, Sanchez has thrown 93.1 innings between Wilmington and Portland, with a 2.21 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 117/30 K/BB ratio. Sanchez throws in the mid 90's and has a nice changeup as well.

Available: Jon Papelbon and Abe Alvarez. These two are currently at AAA and have the benefit of being more "Major League Ready" than Lester and Sanchez. Alvarez was the shining star of this minor league organization just a year ago, but hasn't been mentioned much this year with Lester, Sanchez and Papelbon pitching so well. Alvarez is a junkballer with good control. He's only 22 years old and has posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, with 79 K's vs. 27 walks in 105.2 innings for Pawtucket, and looks to me like a Bill Lee clone. Papelbon has more upside than Alvarez and has great stuff. He's pitched 104.2 innings between Portland and Pawtucket with a 2.75 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 96/24 K/BB ratio. Terrific numbers, but he's the oldest of this bunch and might not project as high as Lester and Sanchez. I'd hate to see him go, but if he can bring a top starter in return I think the Sox would be OK.

Also Available: David Pauley, Cla Meredith, Manny Delcarmen. Meredith and now Delcarmen have both been promoted to Boston this season, so they are obviously close to major league ready. I would make them available (Delcarmen's sexy fastball and all) because relief pitching is a little more readily available than starting pitching, and in the minors, success as a reliever is less impressive than success as a starter. David Pauley has had a nice season in Portland and I think he's going to be a legitimate, back-of-the-rotation major league starter. He won't land any big game by himself, but he could be part of a package to land a stud, or he could bring some bullpen help.

The Red Sox aren't going to hand the keys to the rotation over to a bunch of younsters any time soon, so they are unlikely to have more than a spot or two available for the guys in the minors in the coming years. The fact that there are five guys in the system who could be big league starters by 2007, along with some top relievers, means that the Sox have the luxury of having pieces to work with without stripping out the whole system.

Position players:

Untouchable: Dustin Pedroia. I’ve written plenty about him here, especially before his promotion to Pawtucket. He’s struggled since being hit by a pitch shortly after his promotion, but he’s the real deal – a good contact hitter who works the count and has surprising pop, and a solid middle infield glove. If I’m the Red Sox GM, Pedroia is my second baseman for next season, so he’s not going anywhere.

Nearly Untouchable: Hanley Ramirez. Hanley is available for top-rate major league talent. He’s a true five-tool guy and has been the Sox’ #1 prospect for three years now, but he probably needs a year at AAA and he’s blocked (at shortstop) by Edgar Renteria. I think Ramirez’s star has lost a little shine because his batting average is in the .270’s right now, but he’s hitting the ball hard, drawing more walks than normal, and seems to always rise to a challenge. He’s got a higher ceiling than Pedroia does, but he’s more risky as well, which is why I would trade him before Pedroia.

Available: Brandon Moss, Jeremy West, David Murphy, Chris Durbin. Moss has the biggest upside here, but I’m concerned by his strikeouts this season. He had an unexpected breakout last season, which may turn out to be a bit of a fluke. West looks like a good hitter, but has shown zero power since the first week of the season, which won’t cut it at first base. Murphy’s recent hot streak has really resurrected his prospect status, and he’s a good fielder, but there are questions about his ability to sustain his batting performance. Durbin is a fine hitter, but so-so in the field. He needs to hit for power to be useful at the big league level. All of these guys have enough questions that they won’t land a star by themselves, but I could see one packaged with a David Pauley-type in a trade.

Also Available: Kevin Youkilis and Kelly Shoppach. Youkilis is the heir apparent to third base, but I could foresee the Sox trading him and keeping Mueller around for a couple more years while Ramirez acclimates to third base. I like Shoppach a lot, but he’s blocked by Varitek for three more years after this one. I’d like to see Shoppach start to share the position over the next couple of years, but it’s hard to see the Sox taking playing time away from ‘Tek while he’s playing as well as he has been the last few years. Since there is little to be gained by having Shoppach playing in AAA or sitting on the major league bench, I would be willing to part with him in the right deal.

There is less top-grade talent among the position players, which is why I am expecting a pitcher or two to be dealt. The Sox have Ramirez playing a few different positions lately, which can only help whether he is traded or he stays (e.g. it may make the Sox more willing to part with Youkilis). Youkilis is obviously ready for the big leagues right now, which makes him marketable but also could free up Bill Mueller for a trade. Shoppach seems to be a guy without a spot in the Red Sox future, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he were traded. I’m not sure there will be a huge market for the rest of the guys I mentioned, with the likely exception of Brandon Moss.

Stefan Bailie Retires

In a move that flew under the radar, Portland 1B/DH Stefan Bailie announced his retirement from baseball. Bailie has struggled with injuries througout his four-year career, including three stints on the disabled list this season. Unfortunately for Bailie, his time on the active roster was probably as painful as his injuries this season: he hit just 147/197/302-5-11 with 47 strikeouts in 35 games. It was sad to see, especially after watching him tattoo the left field wall in his time in Portland last season. Bailie hit 309/364/590-8-28 with 15 doubles and 34 K's in 37 games for the Sea Dogs after similarly tearing up the Carolina league with Sarasota, and he was Boston's minor league hitter of the year in 2004.

From MaineToday.com:
Bailie will be remembered fondly by (manager Todd) Claus, who had him in Single-A for half of last season. "Last year in front our team," said Claus, "I told him I'd take him on any club that I had, because he'd run through a wall for you. He gave you everything he had, and that's all a manager can ask."

We wish Bailie the best of luck in his post-baseball career.

Dogs Sweep Back Into First

Safely away from the (apparently) unfriendly confines of Hadlock Field, the Sea Dogs swept the New Hampshire Fisher Cats over the weekend. The sweep, combined with Akron’s taking two of three from the Trenton Thunder, put the Sea Dogs back into first in the see-saw EL North, half a game ahead of Trenton and 1.5 games up on New Hampshire.

Pitching was the name of the game for the Sea Dogs, despite the fact that the team skipped ace Jon Lester’s turn in the rotation to give the young lefty some extra rest. Friday night Anibal Sanchez shook off his rough Hadlock debut to shut out New Hampshire over seven innings, allowing just three hits and two walks while striking out 11 in Portland’s 4-0 victory. On Saturday, David Pauley allowed a run on four hits and one walk in seven innings of work to outduel Vince Perkins 3-1. Sunday’s finale featured two 10th inning home runs (off the bats of Kenny Perez and Brandon Moss) for a 5-3 win. Dr. Jekyll showed up this time, allowing three runs (only one earned) on three hits and a walk in also pitching seven innings. With the starters pitching deeper into the games than they had over the past couple of weeks the bullpen received a much-needed break.

David Murphy was the hitting star over the weekend, collecting six hits, including two homers, and knocking in 7 runs in 13 at bats. Also of note, the Red Sox continue to get Hanley Ramirez experience at other defensive positions. After playing five games at second base, the gifted shortstop manned the hot corner on Sunday. Rumors will undoubtedly continue to swirl around Boston’s plan for Ramirez at least until Sunday’s trade deadline.

Jon Lester Interview

The Royal Rooters occasionally conduct interviews with Red Sox prospects. This time around it's Portland pitcher Jon Lester. It's a short interview and not real meaty, but it should be of interest to most readers of this Blog.

A welcome off day / roster moves

The Sea Dogs enjoyed a day off from the grind yesterday. Kevin Thomas of MaineToday.com takes the pulse of the team in today's story. The team recognizes that it's struggling, and they are ready to continue fighting through it as they open a series in Manchester tonight.

The Sea Dogs made a couple of roster moves during the day off. Raul Nievez was placed on the DL and Justin Sturge was reassigned to Wilmington. Taking their places are pitcher Edgar Martinez and infielder Scott Youngbauer. Sturge has been a part of the bullpen that has struggled of late. In 33 appearances he's pitched 48 innings with a 4.88 ERA and 1.41 WHIP, along with a 33/16 K/BB ratio. He's replaced by Martinez, who was a backup catcher in Portland last season. Martinez was abysmal with the bat, which prompted a demotion and his conversion to pitcher. He's had much success on the mound - a 0.90 ERA in just 10 innings pitched last season, while this year he's pitched 34.1 innings with a stellar 2.10 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 46/12 K/BB ratio.

Youngbauer started the season playing for the Akron Aeros, where he did not hit well (216/275/353-5-19 in 41 games), though he is a better hitter than Nievez (576 OPS this season). Youngbauer has been tearing it up in Wilmington, however (321/380/514-2-18 in 27 games, with 5 doubles and 5 triples to boot). I'm assuming that Youngbauer will fill Nievez' super-utility role. He hit fairly well at AA last season (744 OPS between Reading and Akron), but at 26 he's not a prospect and I find it hard to believe that he'll be taking significant playing time away from Kenny Perez or Jared Sandberg.

Away, Sweet Away

So the Sea Dogs lost their sixth straight game 12-7 to the Phillies yesterday. Thus ended a 1-6 home stand coming out of the All Star break. Portland's home record drops to 20-24, second worst in the EL. However, they have the second best away record at 28-22 (Erie, coincidentally, is #1 in the EL in both categeries), and they play 15 of their next 22 on the road. Since first place New Hampshire is the first stop, we could be back in first by the end of the weekend. The pitching went through a rough week. If the top three get back on track this weekend, the Sea Dogs will be fine.

Oh, and no word from Charlie Eshbach yet.

An Open Letter to Charlie Eshbach

Dear Charlie:

Your Sea Dogs lost another home game last night, their fifth in a row, and now they are sitting in third place in the EL North, 1.5 games behind first place New Hampshire and trailing Trenton by 1 game for second place. According to my calculations, the Sea Dogs are now 20-23 at home this season, which (according to MaineToday.com) is second worst in the EL.

You know all of this, of course. But what you may not know (unless you are a regular visit to this Blog) is that I have been working for a baseball consulting firm this season, and have attended many games at Hadlock field. I don't have my records in front of me at the moment, but I would estimate that I have attended about 25 games this season, in which the Sea Dogs have something like a 7-18 record. If the team were even close to .500, say 12-13 in those games, they would still be in first by 3.5 games. The Sea Dogs are much better at home (about 13-5) when I am not in attendance. Also, I was scheduled to work many of the games that were rained out, as well as a lot of the games that were played in such poor weather that in-game attendance was much lower than expected. I am starting to believe that my presence is bringing the team down.

Charlie, I get paid about $25/game by the consulting firm (note to the IRS - it's actually far, far less than this amount. I'm negotiating here). By the end of the season, I will have earned close to $1,000 (note to IRS - still negotiating, telling a little white lie!) in this gig. Here is my proposal to you: NEXT season, if the Portland Sea Dogs are willing to pay me $1,000, I will not renew my affiliation with the consulting firm. Instead, I will stay home and let the top Red Sox prospects play to their fullest potential. August of this season can be bought out as well, for how about $250. I think it's fair to say that any playoff revenues that may be in jeopardy by my continuing attendance at Hadlock Field would far exceed the cost for the Sea Dogs to keep me away. If you are interested in my proposal, please comment here and I will get in touch with you at the Sea Dogs front office to finalize the details.

Thanks for considering my proposal.

Joe

Scorer's Notes:

• The game was delayed by an hour due to thunderstorms and downpours. Once the rain passed, it was a pleasant Portland evening, warm enough for shorts but with a nice cooling fog by the end of the night. The crowd was a lot more excited and sociable than I am used to seeing, maybe the result of an extra hours worth of beer consumption.
• Buddy Dave and I were joined by our very close friends Ken and Dennis, one of whom is"back home" from Arizona for a week. Hanging out and catching up certainly made the rain delay go by faster. We had a great time.
• Cole Hamels got the start for the Reading Phillies. The result was a mixed bag - he walked five batters in six innings, but only allowed two hits with 5 K's. He was behind in the count all night, but managed to survive. Hamels was throwing in the low-90's, topping out at 92 mph, and mixing in breaking pitches that he didn't throw consistently for strikes. He's a lefty whose repertoire is very similar to Jon Lester's, though Hamels is quite a bit more raw at this point (my expert opinion, after seeing him throw 112 pitches). As I stated in the Phillies preview, I suspect that this may have to due with rust, as he's missed quite a bit of time to injury the last couple of seasons.
• Sea Dogs manager Todd Claus and DH Alberto Concepcion were tossed in consecutive innings for arguing balls and strikes. The unexpected part of these events is that they were arguing in opposite directions. Claus got into it with the home plate umpire because he thought his pitchers (Mr. Hyde and Denney Tomori) were getting squeezed. In the next inning, Concepcion watched three consecutive "ball fours" cross the plate in striking out. Coming out to warm up the pitcher before the 7th (he is the normal starting catcher), Concepcion instead chose to argue about the large strike zone, resuliting in his own ejection.
• The game featured 14 hits, 13 walks and 20 strikeouts. The Sea Dogs went the entire second inning with fewer than five swings at Hamels' offerings.
• Other Phillies prospects: Michael Bourn was 0-5 with 3 K's, but showed his great speed in running out a couple of ground balls. Chris Roberson was 2-3 with a nail-in-the-coffin two-run homer in the top of the 9th. Triple Crown candidated Randy Ruiz had a double and two walks on the evening.
• If you are ever trying to avoid detection by the police, my suggestion is that you enter a game at Hadlock as a defensive substitution. The PA announcer certainly won't betray your location.
• And to that crowd of drunk people who didn't really have tickets to those seats they were occupying in section 108: sit the hell down, we're trying to watch a game here!

Reading Phillies Prospects

The Reading Phillies are the final Eastern League team to come to Portland this season, so this is my final "Prospect Preview" on the season (though I will likely continue with "Prospect Reviews" in the future. First of all, feel free to look at all of the Phillies top prospects according to John Sickels, as well as his mid-year update.

Cole Hamels (#3, LHP, B) has had his progress slowed a great deal by injuries the last couple of seasons. Hamels pitched just three games for Clearwater this season, and just twice in Reading since his promotion earlier this month. He's been pretty successful thus far, allowing just 7 earned runs and striking out 32 in 29 innings. He's allowed 14 walks in that span, which is too many, but this isn't really in line with his career marks and could merely be a sign of rust. Only 21 and obviously posessing loads of talent, Hamels is yet another top pitcher to come through the EL this season. It looks like he's on tap for Tuesday, when I'm scheduled to work, so I look forward to seeing more of him then.

Sickels has this to say:

"Yes, Phillies fans, I am aware that Cole Hamels has the most raw talent of
anyone on this list. I have him at Grade B right now because of last year's
elbow problems (which I find very worrisome), as well as the stupidity of the
bar fight. If he is healthy and has his head screwed on straight this year,
he'll move back up quickly. Remember that Grade B is not an insult in my system,
but it does reflect the uncertainties in his profile."

Michael Bourn (OF, #4, B) is the leadoff batter who Sickels "likes a lot" and is hitting 279/363/370-4-27 with 28 steals in 89 games this season. Bourn skipped high A ball to come to Reading, and he isn't showing the same power and on-base numbers as last year when he hit 317/433/470 for Lakewood. He draws a fair amount of walks, but strikes out a lot more than you want from a leadoff guy.

Francisco Butto (RHP, #14, C) Pitching out of the bullpen, Butto has thrown 28 innings for Akron, posting a 3.54 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, 23 K's and 9 walks. In 28.1 innings at Clearwater at the beginning of the season, Butto's numbers were very similar, with the exception that he recorded a few more K's and a few less walks. This follows a season where he didn't fare too well with Clearwater, though his numbers were strong with Lakewood in 2003 (3.03 ERA)

"Many of the Grade C pitchers (Brito and Butto in particular) have live arms but sketchy and inconsistent track records."

Chris Roberson (OF. #20, C) is hitting 318/376/471-9-44 with 23 steals in 91 games. These numbers are almost identical to what he posted last season in Clearwater. Roberson hasn't posted lofty home run totals yet has good power numbers due to a lot of doubles and triples. It's a good all-around batting performance, but at 25 years of age he's a little old for the league and one probably can't anticipate that his doubles and triples are an indication of more homers to come, as one might if he were a few years younger.

Reading’s offensive also feature’s the Eastern League’s top hitter on the season. Randy Ruiz has destroyed opposing pitching to the tune of 356/406/673-24-81. He’s tied with Trenton’s Shelley Duncan with 24 home runs, but leads the other triple-crown categories by a wide margin. Ruiz is also tops in the league in slugging % and fourth in OBP. Ruiz, however, is 27 years old and has never played above A ball until this year, despite hitting pretty well pretty much every year. I’m not sure what’s going on there.

The pitching staff has been led by a couple of minor league veterans: 28-year-old Chris Rojas has thrown 105.2 IP with a 3.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, and decent 90/26 K/BB ratio. This is the most success he’s shown at AA in his fourth season at this level (first in the EL), led by an improved walk rate. 29 year-old Allen Davis first reached AA in 1998, though he hasn’t pitched at this level since he was with Harrisburg in 2002. In 108.1 IP, Davis has posted a 3.57 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 55/11 K/BB ratio. Seung Hak Lee has made 11 starts for Reading with a 1.97 ERA in 64 innings, however his peripherals (1.28 ERA, 50/24 K/BB) don’t suggest that he can sustain quite such a low ERA. Lee is a Korean who spent much of last season at AAA Scranton.

Reading’s bullpen is anchored by a couple of workhorses. Ryan Cameron, a Sea Dog in 2003 and 2004, has pitched very well in 60.1 relief innings: 2.24 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 62/22 K/BB. Cameron has shown promise in the past, and these numbers represent probably the best of what one could expect from him. Cameron shares the team lead in saves (7) with Travis Minix, who has 50.1 IP with a 1.97 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 44/12 K/BB ratio.

Virtually all of the statistical leaders on this team were signed as minor league free agents and are too old to be considered strong major league prospects at this time.

Should I feel bad?

I am in the habit of checking the referrals to my Blog through my sitemeter account. Today, for at least the third time this year, somebody searched for Colin Young and came across my blog, in which I refer to Young as "the enemy of my soul". I feel kind of guilty when I see this, because usually somebody is searching for players they like (or, alternately, they are searching for references to themselves). But I stand by it - anybody who makes me sit in the pouring rain while he balks a guy all the way around the bases in a game that is already a blowout, well, I just have no sympathy for him.

Ummm -but I'm not bitter or anything! 8^)

Blog Curse Continues

The Curse of the Sea Blog went into a slump for a little while, but now it looks like it's back on track. The Sea Dogs lost again this afternoon, 5-2 to the Akron Aeros. The Sea Dogs looked completely uninspired today in scraping together only three hits off Dan Denham and making a couple of errors in the field. After winning the series opener, the Dogs lost three in a row to Akron.

In a surprise move, top prospect Anibal Sanchez started for the Sea Dogs on the mound. While he showed flashes of why he is so good, he also struggled and failed to get through the fourth inning. Things started poorly, as Sanchez gave up a home run to leadoff batter Franklin Gutierrez and hard singles to the next two batters. A strikeout and double play got Sanchez out of the jam, and he cruised through the next two innings while recording four strikeouts. A home run by Brad Snyder, a couple walks, a balk and a misplayed ground ball accounted for two more runs before Sanchez was removed. Sanchez featured a fastball that reached 95 mph, a curve ball that he could throw for strikes, and a knee-buckling change. His biggest problem on the day was control, and he managed to throw first-pitch strikes to only six of the 17 batters that he faced. I've seen similar performances from Jon Papelbon and Jon Lester this season, so I'm not concerned with this shaky performance. I believe that he can pitch at this level.

Scorer's Notes:

• Hanley Ramirez was playing second base for the second game in a row. The story is that the Red Sox want to get him experience at other positions. This can only be a bad sign for Mark Bellhorn. Hanley didn't get much activity at second, but he did a nice job in turning a double play, applied the tag on a stolen base, and made a nice diving stop to his right to snag Eider Torres' grounder for the final out in the 9th.
• For some reason unknowable to me, Sanchez wore long sleeves in the 90-degree sunshine.
• I think that we had everything but a triple today in the ways a player can reach base - single, double, home run, error, walk, hit-by-pitch, and catcher's interference. I might be forgetting something. Oh, yeah, wild pitch on a strikeout - we didn't have one of those. By the way, when you're seeing a lot of these things (errors, balks, catcher's interference), you're not seeing good baseball.
• One of the between-innings promos is "Lob A Lobster", where two guys with lacrosse sticks lob rubber lobsters to the two contestents, who are trying to catch them in an old-fashioned lobster trap. This game is a bad idea for couples. Today, two buddies from out of state (Connecticut and NYC) were our contestents. After receiving some generous scoring and winning the prize (dinner at Newick's Restaurant in South Portland), one of the guys celebrated by taunting the Sea Dogs dugout, pointing to the Yankee logo on his shirt. Yankee fans are so bush league.
• Both of the guys who hit home runs were featured in my prospect preview the other day. The rest of the day wasn't all that similar, as Gutierrez collected 4 strikeouts forllowing his home run, while Snyder collected a single and a double.
• Each team's top home run hitter was batting 7th. It's understandable for the Sea Dogs, as Jared Sandberg isn't as good as the guys ahead of him. But I can't figure out why Jon Van Every continues to bat behind the light hitting Shaun Larkin (who was at least playing a more sensible position today - third base).
• The relief rotation was the same for the Sea Dogs as on Friday, so I got another look at Jason Pearson. He's got a mediocre fastball (~86 mph), but throws a slow curve for strikes, which accounts for most of his success on the mound.

Aeros down Sea Dogs

The Akron Aeros defeated the Sea Dogs 8-1 on a beautiful Friday evening in front of a packed house at Hadlock Field. Charlie Zink pitched two solid innings to start the game and it looked for a while like we were in for a pitchers duel between Zink and Akron starter Rafael Perez. That changed when Zink gave up back-to-back home runs to Jon Van Every and Javier Cardona to start the third. Zink struggled a bit after that point as the Aeros rolled. The Sea Dogs managed just four hits off Perez and two relievers, with David Murphy's home run accounting for their lone run.

Scorer's Notes:

• Murphy's stock continues to rise again as his bat is coming around. Sometimes batting 9th less than a month ago, he was in the three hole last night despite facing a lefty. Murphy now boasts a 746 OPS and is second on the team with 49 RBI. He also made a nice running, back-to-the-infield catch on Franklin Gutierrez' long fly ball in the third.
• Perez has now made three starts for the Aeros with a 0.89 ERA. Perez was fairly well-regarded following the 2003 season, however he struggled quite a bit last year. He seems to have regained his form, posting a 3.32 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, however the 48/32 K/BB ratio (in 77.2 IP) was ho-hum. In 20.1 IP at Akron, however, he's allowed just 14 hits and 5 walks while recording 17 K's. Last night Perez featured a featured a fastball that topped out at 90 mph and a slider in the low-80's. Last night his sinker led to 11 ground ball outs and 4 K's.
• Akron featured the smallest first baseman I have ever seen in AA: Shaun Larkin, who I believe is usually a second baseman. Listed at 5'9", 170 lbs, he looked smaller to me than Dustin Pedroia. He's got some pop (20 HR in 2003), though he has been old for the leagues that he has played in since finishing college. Larkin has struggled with his first taste of AA: 224/299/377-4-25 in 49 games. His walk rate this year is higher than in years past, which is a good sign for him.
• I got my first look at Jason Pearson, who Portland rescued from the Atlantic League a week ago. Pearson is a lefty who features a slow curve ball. With the exception of the double that he allowed to Cardona in the 8th to allow two inherited runners to score, Pearson pitched pretty well in relief.
• Yesterday I wrote that Aeros 1B Michael Aubrey "must have missed some time with injury this year." Well, duh - he's on the DL right now with a bone bruise in his back. By the sound of what I read at the Cleveland Indians Report, Aubrey has been a bit injury-prone in his career to date.
• The PA crew showed a possible-record three Red Sox highlights during last night's game. Boston's 17-1 destruction of the Yankees was the best news the Hadlock Faithful received all night.

Akron Aeros Prospects

Here, by way of John Sickels' ratings, are the top prospects on the Akron Aeros roster. Akron heads into the second half of the season with a 49-40 record, best in the Eastern League, and (it would naturally follow) first in the EL south. Sickels is pretty high on the Cleveland system, and Akron boasts five of his top guy, including three top-5 players.

Michael Aubrey (1B, #3, B+ rating) Hitting 283/336/462-4-20 in 28 games for Akron. He must have missed some time with injury this year. Last year he batted 261/340/425-5-22 in 38 games for the Aeros after posting a 988 OPS in single A. Power is developing as he adjusts to AA.

Franklin Gutierrez (OF, #4, B+) Batting 241/306/396-8-33 on the season. Very disappointing numbers after he hit 302/372/466-5-35 in 70 games for Akron last year (and going 10-17 in major league spring training. Gutierrez hit 24 home runs in 2003, so the power drop off is kind of mysterious.

Brad Snyder (OF, #5, B+) Snyder is hitting a fine 262/353/505-4-15 in 25 games with Akron after starting the season at single A Kinston, where he hit 278/365/431-6-28 in 58 games. Numbers were similar, but a little better, in two A ball stops last season. Has some power and can draw a walk, and he looks like he's progressing to be a useful major leaguer.

Jeremy Sowers (LHP, #8, B) also started the year at Kinston. In four starts at Akron, he's pitched very well: 22.2 IP, 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 24/6 K/BB. At Kinstone he made 13 starts, throwing 71.1 innings with a 2.78 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 75 K and 19 BB. The numbers are impressive, especially the 4:1 K:BB ratio, given that this is his first year of pro baseball after graduating from Vanderbilt last year.

Jake Dittler (RHP, #18, C+) is repeating AA, though he is still young (only 22). This year he's made 18 starts, pitching 114.2 innings with a 3.30 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 64K/39BB (1.64:1 ratio). Last year he had a 5.02 ERA and 1.48 WHIP in 107.2 innings for the Aeros, though the K/BB numbers were better (85/40). Better than last year, but the numbers are still fairly ho-hum.


The Aeros placed three players on the EL All Star team: RHP JD Martin, (10GS, 56.2 IP, 2.38 ERA with a very impressive 0.88 WHIP and 63/8 K/BB ratio), 3B Pat Osborn (282/342/392-5-40) and OF Jon Van Every (240/352/467-15-41), who has been the team's top slugger. Martin injured his elbow and was replaced on the all star roster by left handed reliever Chris Cooper (47.1 IP, 2.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 49/17 K/BB, 7 saves).

All Star Coverage

I got to watch a few innings last night. The Sea Dogs players acquitted themselves nicely, with Brandon Moss flashing the leather, Hanley Ramirez showing off his speed, and Kenny Perez delivering the game winning hit in the EL North's 9-6 victory. I'm not going to write too much, because MaineToday.com has you covered.

New Britain's Dan Matienzo was named the game's MVP.

Trenton's Shelley Duncan won the home run hitting contest.

Glenn Jordan has a column about the Sea Dogs hosting the event.

14-year-old Matt Watson, an incoming freshman at Deering High, was the catcher for the HR contest.

And here's an overview of the whole experience.

It was a lot of fun to see all the different teams represented on the Hadlock diamond, along with images of Portland in the background. All Star games always have a certain style and feeling of excitement, and I'm glad we got to host one. With 12 teams in the league, we may have to wait another dozen years, but I'm sure the Sea Dogs will put on a classy event next time around, too!

More Shameless Promotion

(Not self-promotion, mind you. Unsolicited, too!)

Jim Baumer's book, When Towns Had Teams, reached another milestone when Baumer announced the formation of River Vison Press, his DIY publishing company. The book is on schedule for a fall release, and River Vision is accepting pre-orders after August 1st. I have had several discussions with the author over the last several months, and I eagerly await the release of the book. It promises to evoke nostalgia not just for the type of baseball that really isn't prevalent these days, but also for the small-town Maine culture as it existed following World War II.

We're pretty heavily focused on the Sea Dogs here at Joe's SeaBlog, but there is always time for baseball at all other levels. The love of baseball is a lifelong passion for many, it doesn't stop when we realize that we don't have the talent to move to the next level (or to remain at our current level). Town team ball provided an outlet for many players who wanted to continue playing for the love of the game. Local adult amateur baseball is now primarily played by college kids looking for competition in the summer. The leagues have diminished in number and lack the types of legendary characters who play well into their 40's (and beyond). When Towns Had Teams will revisit those simpler days gone by and will be a worthy read. I encourage all of my readers to check out River Vision Press, and to return after August 1st to place your orders.

Checking in on the Monkee

Before the major league season started I decided to try projecting the performance of the Red Sox batters for this season. Since we're at the All Star Break, now seems like a good chance to see how my projections (that I dubbed Monkee projections, because they didn't require a lot of thought and are primarily for fun) are holding up. I used the ESPN.com player pages to come up with the "projected" performance.

Jason Varitek:
527 PA 282/364/473 19HR 77RC Monkee
540 PA 301/367/525 24HR 91RC Projection

The Monkee predicted a pretty good season for the Captain, and it seems to be coming through. 'Tek is hitting for a little more power than expected, and so far is putting up better numbers than his terrific 2004 season.

Doug Mirabelli missed a few weeks of action, which will keep his playing time down. I originally projected 23 RC in 175 PA's, now I've got him at 16 RC in 132 PA's. Barring injury, he'll end up with more like 150 PA's, but the rate is a bit lower (.121 RC/PA vs. the projected .131).

Kevin Millar:
577 PA 291/367/480 20HR 87RC M
549 PA 264/342/368 7 HR 63RC P

Millar is far underperforming projections from both a BA and SLG perspective. We're eagerly anticipating that patented second-half turnaround. Every day we wait, the likelihood of a trade increases.

Mark Bellhorn:
497 PA 254/368/429 14HR 65RC 2005 “Mickey Dolenz” Projection
640 PA 254/368/429 18HR 83RC 2005 “Joe’s Sea Blog” Projection
600 PA 221/332/360 11HR 66RC Projection

I named the original Monkee projection Mickey Dolenz because it was kind of goofy. Bellhorn is tough to peg, as he's never had two good full seasons in a row. I expected more playing time than the Monkee and adjusted accordingly. Thus far, we're both right, me on the playing time and Mickey on the runs created. That's not a good combination. I thought Bellhorn would repeat last year knowing that he was in the lineup every day, but that hasn't been the case, except in the strikeout category (he's on pace for 190 this season).

Bill Mueller:
500 PA 297/374/475 13HR 77RC “Peter Tork”
564 PA 285/389/406 7HR 73 RC Proj

I named Mueller's projection after Peter Tork, because it was silly. The projected power numbers were highly skewed by Mueller's outstanding 2003 season. I wrote, " think Mueller will bat in the 290s, but his OBP and SLG will probably be closer to what he put up last season – maybe even a little lower when it comes to the power numbers (note: 363 and 446, respectively). Mueller’s a great guy to have in the lineup, and an .800 OPS would be nothing for him to be ashamed of." My analysis is looking pretty good on this one, except that Mueller is drawing more walks than I thought he would, keeping his OBP up. Overall, about what I expected.

Edgar Renteria:
642 PA 305/354/435 11HR 91RC M
668 PA 272/327/387 11HR 75RC P

Like Mueller, I thought that Renteria's projection was a little optimistic because he had such a big year in 2003. I thought he'd be a little better than this, however. I wrote "Worst case scenario is that he puts up the numbers that Boston’s three shortstops accumulated last season (272/309/411-14-81), though I would be shocked if his OBP were anywhere near as low as .309." Looks like we're right in line with the "worst case scenario". Renteria is also on pace to hit into 24 double plays, which is just way too many.

Manny Ramirez:
638 PA 321/416/609 39HR 136RC “Davy Jones”
661 PA 275/361/549 41HR 109RC Proj

Damn fine numbers for most anybody but Manny. Davy Jones was the pretty Monkee, hence the name appended to this projection. IsoP and IsoD are down a little, but the big problem is the low batting average, which I don't understand. Maybe it's age, but Manny hasn't controlled his at bats this season the way we are used to seeing him do.

Johnny Damon:
698 PA 290/362/466 16HR 100RC M
700 PA 343/386/473 7HR 118RC P

Damon's having a terrific season and is probably the Red Sox offensive MVP thus far. Interestingly (and a bit ominously), his improved performance is almost entirely wrapped up in his increased batting average, as his secondary average of .228 is well below his career standard of .273 and last year's .312. Damon is being more aggressive, seeing only 3.65 pitches/PA vs. 4.1 the last two years. The result is that he's become an effective table setter by slapping a lot of singles. I don't really trust that this will continue to return these kind of results for the remainder of the year, but I still expect that he will finish ahead of the Monkee at season's end.

Trot Nixon:
375 PA 291/372/527 17HR 64RC 2005 “Mike Nesmith”
500 PA 291/372/527 23HR 85RC 2005 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
466 PA 296/377/484 17HR 87RC Proj

Mike Nesmith was the pessimistic Monkee projecting a lot less playing time than Nixon is likely to end up with this season. He's a little behind the PAs that I projected, but that should change now that Jay Payton is gone and there is no right-handed alternative to Nixon at the moment. Trot's power isn't what I thought it would be this year, but overall I think a pretty good projection by the Monkee.

Speaking of Payton, he won't be back the rest of the season, but let's see how our projections were running for him:
200 PA 287/340/451 6HR 27 RC M
268 PA 263/313/429 9HR 32 RC P

As noted above, Payton was getting more PT than I expected. (Apparently it was less than he expected, however.) Payton provided some timely hits, but his performance was a little worse than I expected. This is tied directly to his batting average, as IsoD and IsoP are right on target.

David Ortiz:
573 PA 292/370/582 33 HR 108 RC M
709 PA 314/396/585 39 HR 137 RC P

Finally, Big Papi. The Monkee didn't think Ortiz would play this much because he didn't play full time in either 2003 or 2002, and I ran the Monkee projection despite the fact that we knew he'd play nearly every day barring injury. Papi is having another monster season, on track to provide similar numbers to last year (983 OPS, 41 HR, 133 RC).

On balance I think that the Monkee is doing a pretty good job, though the lineup as a whole is probably about two wins off the pace that I predicted prior to the season. The Monkee doesn’t really have anybody pegged, though Nixon and Ortiz are right on except for the playing time. Damon and Varitek are the only guys doing better than the projection, though both could be in the ballpark by season’s end. Mueller and Renteria weren’t going to hit the Monkee projection anyway, and Mueller is actually doing just what I predicted. Millar, Bellhorn and Renteria have all disappointed thus far and need to pick up the pace in the second half to meet what the Monkee expected from them.

Odds'n' Ends

Jon Lester was named Eastern League pitcher of the week after allowing just five hits with 12 K's in seven shutout innings against Trenton last week. Lester was the second consecutive Sea Dog to win the award. Jon Papelbon celebrated by being promoted to Pawtucket. Lester celebrated by outdueling himself, shutting out New Hampshire on just one hit in a seven-inning complete game on Monday, this time striking out 13 batters. The 13 K's were a personal best and tied the Sea Dogs record set by AJ Burnett in April, 1999. Note that Burnett pitched 9 innings in that game. It may just be a matter of time before Lester follows Papelbon to Rhode Island.

Here's an article from MaineToday.com discussing how Lester was discussed as an additional player in the failed Manny Ramirez for Alex Rodriguez trade during the 2003-04 offseason. That non-deal seems to have worked out OK for the Sox.

Finally, here's another MaineToday article, about All Star Jared "the Wicket" Sandberg, and his hopeful road back to the big leagues.

All Star Break recap, Part 2 - The Holdovers

I was a little hasty in declaring the EL All Star Break in effect. Actually, the Sea Dogs swept a doubleheader from New Hampshire yesterday and now hold a two-game lead over the Fisher Cats in the EL North.

In my last post I reviewed the how player movement has impacted the Sea Dogs for the remainder of the season. Today I will discuss those players who remain on the roster from Opening Day, and what we might expect from them the rest of the way.

Several players got off to very hot starts but have cooled considerably as the year has gone along. #1 prospect Hanley Ramirez has been a bit of a disappointment in that he hasn’t hit as well as he did following his arrival here last summer. The numbers (276/340/419-5-30, 7 3B, 18 SB) aren’t all that bad, just not quite what we expected after he hit over .300 with more power in 30+ games last summer. Ramirez missed some time with an injury and seems to be hitting the ball harder since he’s returned, so I expect big things from him for the rest of the season.

Jeremy West and Jared Sandberg also posted gaudy stats in April. Both have cooled considerably. West has shown good discipline (.359 OBP, only 37 K’s), but he hasn’t been hitting the ball with authority and his power numbers (.406 SLG, 4 HR, 24 RBI) are disappointing to say the least. Power hasn’t been Sandberg’s problem – he leads the team with 16 HR, 55 RBI and .217 IsoP – and he also leads the team with 42 walks, but he’s struck out 80 times and is batting just .236. Sandberg has also committed 21 errors at (primarily) third base. For a guy with a couple of years in the bigs, this doesn’t seem acceptable.

Two former Baylor University outfielders seem to have flip-flopped in terms of "prospect" status this year. David Murphy was the highly-touted first rounder in 2003 who has failed to hit for any power in the professional ranks, causing his stock to drop despite being a solid glove in center field. He’s brought his stats up in recent weeks, however, and now has a 276/328/391-5-46 line. Murphy’s .115 IsoP, while not impressive in it’s own right, is his best since his college days, and his 46 RBI are second on the team. If these developments are the sign of his maturation as a hitter, he’ll be back among the better prospects by next season. Chris Durbin was a 10th round pick in 2003 despite very similar college stats, the result of his being a lesser defensive player and a year older than Murphy. Durbin’s been injured several times this season but in-between has been a pleasant surprise: 292/358/504-10-41 in 58 games. With his power development he has turned into a decent corner outfielder.

The other corner outfielder is another top prospect, Brandon Moss. Some said that Moss, who spent most of last season in Low-A ball, was being rushed in starting the season in Portland. Moss certainly struggled at the start, batting near .200 until mid-May, when he caught fire and brought his average up to .300 in the course of about three weeks. Moss has cooled again and is now hitting .269/348/453-11-41 on the season. That’s still good enough to make the All Star team. Moss certainly has good potential, but he has struck out a lot (87 to lead the team) and he needs to be more consistent, in my opinion. I think that he’ll hit well for the remainder of the season, and he’s been a solid defender in right field.

On the Pitching front, Jon Lester has been outstanding all season long. After pitching a seven-inning complete game one hitter on Monday (with a Sea Dogs record-tying 13 strikeouts to boot), on the heels of another 7 inning, 12K, shutout appearance, Lester has firmly entrenched himself as one of the top pitching prospects in AA. For the season, Lester has made 17 starts and pitched 98.1 innings. His ERA and WHIP drop with every outing, now standing at 2.38 and 1.10, respectively. Lester has recorded 114 strikeouts (10.4/9 innings) vs. 34 walks (3.4 K/BB). These numbers are simply outstanding, and could land him in Pawtucket sooner than anybody expected.

David Pauley also pitched a great game yesterday, and he has been a solid #3 (behind Lester and Jon Papelbon) all season long. I don't think that Pauley has as high a ceiling as those two (or new #2 Anibal Sanchez), but he's quietly put together the kind of solid season that would have made him the top pitcher on the Sea Dogs many years. Pauley has also made 17 starts with 97.1 innings pitched, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB. I don't believe that Pauley will be promoted until next season, so he may end up being heavily relied upon down the playoff stretch. On the other hand, with Papelbon and Lester unlikely to be dealt, Pauley could be traded by the Red Sox by the end of July.

After Lester, Pauley and Sanchez, the Sea Dogs will rely on three guys who have been inconsistent this season. Kason Gabbard, Charlie Zink and Chris Smith (currently on the DL) all sport ERAs in excess of 5.00 and WHIPs in the 1.50 range. Gabbard and Smith are both in various stages of injury recovery, and Zink is still working out the kinks in the knuckleball, so I expect the inconsistency to continue. I think Smith has the most talent of the three, but he's also most recently removed from his injuries, so I don't expect much from him the rest of 2005. If Gabbard can have more Jekyll and less Hyde on the mound, he'll be a decent #4. Otherwise it'll be best to hope for the bats to be on when any of these three are pitching. I think that the Sea Dogs will get enough quality starts out of thes three to win more often than they lose the rest of the way, which should get them to the playoffs in September.

As I wrote last time, the bullpen has been inconsistent all season long, and I expect that to continue for the rest of the year. The Sea Dogs recently added Jason Pearson and Jim Mann from the independent Nashua Pride, and I think the bullpen will continue to be a revoving door until they find six consistent performers. Deschenes, Tomori and Beam should be solid, Brooks will be there all year, and the rest of the guys will have to perform when called upon.

As the Eastern League season is only 142 games long, the post All Star Game period will be a sprint. I think that the Sea Dogs have the horses to compete, even if Lester and Hanley Ramirez get the August call to Pawtucket (both very likely, in my opinion). Come out and see them while you can, because tickets are cheap and you won't be disappointed.

All Star Recap, Part 1 - Prospect Movement

My All Star Break recap turned out to be fairly lengthy, so I'm going to break it down into two posts. Here is part one. Part two will follow later today or tomorrow.

We’ve reached the All Star break (not the midpoint of the season – there are less than 60 games left) with the Sea Dogs holding the top spot in the Eastern League North Division with a 45-40 record and in a virtual tie with the rival New Hampshire Fisher Cats (46-41). Both teams are 1.5 games ahead of the hated Trenton Thunder. Norwich and Binghamton are 5 games back and New Britain pulls up the rear, 9 games out of first. The top two teams in the division go to the playoffs. That seemed like a sure thing for Portland back in April, when the team opened the season with 10 straight wins and was clearly loaded with a bunch of prospects. The Sea Dogs have scuffled a bit since then, slowed by cold, rainy weather throughout May, injuries and inconsistent play, playing five games below .500 over their last 75 contests. With a recent round of promotions, the team’s success over the last two months is uncertain. A number of terrific players remain, however, so I think the Sea Dogs still have a great chance to vie for their first EL Championship. Let’s recap the pre-All Star results.

Prospect movement: Cla Meredith got off to an outstanding start for the Sea Dogs, recording nine saves and allowing zero runs in 15 innings over the first month before being promoted to Pawtucket (and, briefly, Boston). Meredith started out OK for the PawSox but has struggled lately and has a 5.20 ERA in 27.2 innings at AAA. Since his promotion, the back end of the bullpen has been inconsistent. Marc Deschenes took over the closer role and has recorded 8 saves, but he’s been shaky of late and currently sports a 4.26 ERA. Conor Brooks has also been granted a couple of save opps, but he carries a 4.81 ERA.

Manny Delcarmen closed out a few games for the Sea Dogs, too. After a rough start, he gained control of his electrifying stuff and left town with a 3.23 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched. Delcarmen has really taken to Pawtucket - 9 strikeouts (vs. 1 hit and 2 walks) in his first four innings pitched! Delcarmen was promoted at roughly the same time as starter Jon Papelbon. Paps was solid for Portland in 14 starts, with a 2.48 ERA, sub 1.00 WHIP and nearly a K per innings. He gave up just one run with 7 K’s in 6 innings in his Pawtucket debut.

Dustin Pedroia was Portland’s best hitter through mid-June, batting 324/409/508-8-40 and making pitchers work every time he batted. He also played terrific defense at second base despite being a career-long shortstop prior to this season. Since his promotion, Pedroia has hit 262/380/381-0-4 in 11 games. He missed a week after being hit on the wrist with a pitch, and his performance may have been hurt a bit by the injury.

Looking forward, Papelbon’s rotation spot will be filled by another top prospect, Anibal Sanchez, who was the top pitcher in the Carolina League before being promoted. Sanchez struck out six in four shutout innings in his Sea Dogs debut last week. Pedroia’s production won’t be replaced, but his promotion has created a permanent spot for Kenny Perez to play. Perez bounced around the lineup following his return from Pawtucket in May, and has produced enough (296/335/383-3-24) to be named to the All Star team. The bullpen has been a trouble area all season long, however Randy Beam (promoted from Wilmington) and Denney Tomori (demoted from Pawtucket) have pitched well in limited innings and Deschenes is capable of being a shutdown guy, so I do have some optimism for the pen for the remainder of the season.

I would conclude that the movement of prospects has been to the detriment of Portland's roster. Pedroia has played better than any second baseman in the organization (the big league club included), so even a fine player like Perez is a downgrade. Nobody has pitched as well out of the bullpen as Meredith and Delcarmen did, so the Dogs need someone to step up there. And while Sanchez looks to be every bit the pitcher that Papelbon is, I don't expect him to dominate AA hitters at this stage of his career like Papelbon did this season, though I certainly wouldn't rule it out, either.

News from a couple days ago: June Minor League award winners

One current and one former Sea Dog were presented with Red Sox minor league awards for June:

Dustin Pedroia, who was promoted from Portland to Pawtucket on June 22, was presented the Quality Plate Appearance award. Pedroia hit a combined .318 with 11 2B, 14 RBI, 17 runs and 17 BB during the month, resulting in a .420 (or so) OBP. I've written here before that Pedroia consistently has great at bats and he's a terrific hitter, so this award is no surprise. After his promotion, he was hit on the wrist with a pitch and missed about a week. He returned the other day, and now is hitting 276/400/414-0-2 with 6 runs, 4 BB and just one strikeout in 8 games for the PawSox.

Jon Lester was named pitcher of the month, which is also no surprise, as he has had a month-plus run of terrific pitching. In June, the Eastern League All Star made six starts, going 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 36 K's in 32 innings pitched. Lester is among the league leaders in ERA and strikouts this season.

Also receiving awards were Greenville (A) 3B Andrew Pinckney (offensive player of the month), Greenville OF Bret LeVier (defensive player of the month), Pawtucket OF Chip Ambres (baserunner of the month); Wilmington (A) of Bryan Pritz (base stealer of the month) and Dominican Summer League pitcher Emilis Guerrero (Latin pitcher of the month). Several of these guys should be coming through Portland in the next couple of years, with the exception of Ambres.

Ambres has both speed and power, however he was released by the Marlins for some reason after last season. Apparently they don't understand the value of a walk, because he has traditionally hit for a relatively low average. Last season at AA Carolina, Ambres his 241/352/449-20-62 with 76 walks and 26 steals in 137 games. The Sox liked his skills, however, and he has rewarded them with a superb season. Through 78 games played, Ambres is hitting 302/411/516-10-48 with 44 walks and 17 steals, and he was named to the Eastern League All Star team. Despite being completely off the radar at the beginning of the season, he has risen to #13 on the list at Soxprospects.com.

Sanchez Shines! Portland Poaches Pride!

Anibal Sanchez’ AA debut was a resounding success as he pitched four shutout innings vs. the Trenton Thunder this afternoon, sending the Sea Dogs to a 4-0 victory in the series finale. According to the Portland Sea Dogs web site, Sanchez was limited to 53 pitches because he was pitching on three days rest. He was very effective, however, limiting the Thunder to two hits and two walks while striking out six. Thus it would appear that Sanchez is ready to take over where Jon Papelbon left off.

Speaking of promotions, I missed one yesterday, as fireballing Manny Delcarmen was recalled to Pawtucket. Delcarmen had a difficult start to the season as he struggled with his command, walked too many batters and was hit pretty hard. He righted the ship pretty quickly, however, and left Portland having pitched 39 relief innings with a 3.23 ERA (but with 9 UER - his RA was 5.31), 1.31 WHIP, 49 K (11.3/9) and 20 BB (2.5 K/BB). Delcarmen throws heat (topping out at 97 in the games that I've seen) and his success depends upon his control, which has improved recently. When he gets his slow stuff (curve and change) over for strikes, he's devastating. His prospect status was derailed by injuries, but I think that he's back in the mix and is an intriguing player right now.

In the wake of Delcarmen’s departure (and the "inactivation" of Randy Beam, whatever that means), the Sea Dogs poached two pitchers from the Independent Nashua Pride. Joining the team today were lefty Jason Pearson and righty Jim Mann. Pearson is a 29-year-old with 2.2 innings of major league experience (2002 Padres, 2003 Cardinals), who spent most of last season with St. Louis’ AAA club in Memphis, where he had a 4.55 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 29.2 IP, striking out 7.9 batters per 9 innings pitched and posting a 2.2:1 K:BB ratio. He finished the year with Florida’s AA team in Carolina, posting good numbers. With Nashua he made 30 relief appearances, with a 6-1 record with 1.69 ERA and 1.06 WHIPin 32 IP. He did allow six unearned runs (his RA was 3.68), and his K/BB ratio wasn’t too hot (5.3 K/9, 1.5 K/BB), but he should be a useful arm out of the recently depleted bullpen.

Jim Mann was serving as Nashua’s closer. In 30 innings he recorded a 1.50 ERA and 1.00 WHIP while collecting 16 saves. His control was a bit shaky (13 walks), but more than compensated by his 37 strikeouts, an average of 11.1/9 IP. Mann has a bit more major league experience than does Pearson, having thrown 31.2 innings at the top level with the Mets, Astros and Pirates. Now 30 years old, Mann flamed out big time in AAA last season, posting an 8.13 ERA and 1.81 WHIP in 62 innings with Nashville (Pirates) and Columbus (Yankees). He seems to have righted the ship this year in reducing the hits allowed and increasing the strikeouts, thus resurrecting his career in Organized baseball.

The signing of these Nashua players is not unusual for the Sea Dogs. There is actually a fair amount of cross-pollination between the two teams. Current Sea Dog Marc Deschenes and recently-released Phil Devey are former Pride members (Prides?), while the Nashua roster features former Dogs Joe Kilburg , Kevin Haverbusch and Colin Young (the enemy of my soul, thank god they didn’t bring him back). Former Portland catcher John Nathans was also with Nashua earlier this season. The Pride also currently employ former Red Sox OF and long-time major leaguer Darren Bragg. The Independent Leagues (Nashua is in the Atlantic League) are populated with former minor leaguers and some big leaguers hoping to get another shot at the Show. I don’t follow them closely, but it is fun to peruse the rosters on occasion.

Durbin an All Star, Lester Shines Again

As is often the case in minor league baseball, the EL All Star roster has been shuffled because of player promotions. In this case, Portland's Jon Papelbon and Trenton's Kevin Thompson were both moved up to AAA, leaving All Star slots open. Papelbon was replaced by Trenton's Justin Pope, while Thompson was replaced by Portland's Chris Durbin. Durbin has been on the DL three times this year (he is currently on the shelf), but is a worthy choice regardless. He is among the team leaders in several categories, with a 292/358/504-10-41 line in 58 games played. Durbin's stock has risen quite a bit this year. He came into the season as the "other" outfielder, along with top prospects Brandon Moss and David Murphy. Murphy has come around with the bat lately and is a much better defender than Durbin is, but Durbin has probably passed him as a prospect at this point.

Speaking of promotions, it looks like Jon Lester is trying to follow in Papelbon's footsteps. I noted recently how similar their numbers are this year, and last night Lester had an outing that was nearly as impressive as Pap's final Portland start: 5 H, 0 BB, 12 K in seven shutout innings vs. Trenton. Lester now has made 16 starts, throwing 91.1 innings with a 2.56 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 10.0 K/9 and 3.1 K/BB. He's as deserving as Papelbon was, and I believe there's a good chance that he'll go up, especially if somebody like Abe Alvarez or Papelbon finds himself in Boston.

Hadlock Redies for the All Star game

The Portland newspapers printed this feature about the preparations for next week's Eastern League All Star game, which takes place in Portland this year. The article highlights several of the top prospects who will be appearing in the game.

Also, after taking three of four from Norwich over the weekend, the Sea Dogs lost to the pesky Thunder and are now in a tie for first place in the EL North. Both Gabbard and Zink gave Mr. Hyde performances over the last couple of days. Of further note, Denney Tomori started game two of Saturday's double header and pitched four shutout innings. So far, AA is not a challenge for the Japanese sidewinder. Finally, a couple of DL moves were made, as Chris Durbin hit the list for the third time this season, and Chris Smith for the second time. Sheldon Fulse and Pete Fischer came off the DL to replace them.

Papelbon, Sanchez Promoted

The Red Sox develpmental machine continues to turn. Following Saturday's six-inning, no-hit, 10K masterpiece (for which he was named Eastern League pitcher of the week), Jon Papelbon was promoted to the Pawtucket Red Sox on Sunday. Papelbon leaves town having made 14 starts, with a 5-2 record and 2.48 ERA in 87 innings pitched. His peripherals were very strong, as he posted a 0.94 WHIP, 8.6 K/ 9 IP, and 3.6 K/BB ratio. The only "negative", if you can call it that, is that he allowed a team-leading 9 home runs. This equates to less than one per nine innings, however, and he gave up very few in the last month or month and a half of his stay. Given that he’s fairly old for AA (24), it was time for him to see what he can do at the next level. We wish him the best.

While we’re sad to see Papelbon go, we’re excited for the arrival of Anibal Sanchez, another top Sox prospect who tore up the Carolina League while pitching for the Wilmington Blue Rocks. Sanchez’ record this season is very similar to Papelbon’s: 14 GS, 78.2 IP, 6-1, 2.40, 0.98 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 4.0 K/BB. At the time of his promotion, Sanchez was leading the CL in ERA and tied for first in strikeouts (though in 12 fewer IP than Frederick’s James Johnson). I’m guessing that Sanchez will take Papelbon’s spot in the rotation on Thursday or so.

Papelbon is the third Sox "prospect" to be promoted to Pawtucket this season, following closer Cla Meredith and second baseman Dustin Pedroia. I believe that SS Hanley Ramirez will likely follow in their footsteps sometime around the first of August, whereas other top prospects on the Portland roster (Lester, Moss & West) will probably stick around for the entire season and make the jump in 2006.

And while we focus a lot on the "prospects" here at the Sea Blog, I would also like to acknowledge that a few other Sea Dogs have made the trip to Rhode Island this summer – Raul Nievez and Jim Buckley, who were promoted to serve as AAA backups, and Jeff Bailey, who started the season in Pawtucket, came to Portland for a couple of months to kickstart his bat, then was returned to the PawSox a couple of weeks ago. This type of player is really the backbone of minor league baseball, the guy who comes to the ballpark every day and does whatever is asked of him for the betterment of the team and the organization. We can often easily relate to these players, many of whom become fan favorites (guys like Pookie Wilson from the late 1990’s come to mind). So while we celebrate the accomplishments of the top prospects, we can also appreciate the contributions of all of the (primarily) young men playing minor league baseball.