Checking in on the Monkee

Before the major league season started I decided to try projecting the performance of the Red Sox batters for this season. Since we're at the All Star Break, now seems like a good chance to see how my projections (that I dubbed Monkee projections, because they didn't require a lot of thought and are primarily for fun) are holding up. I used the ESPN.com player pages to come up with the "projected" performance.

Jason Varitek:
527 PA 282/364/473 19HR 77RC Monkee
540 PA 301/367/525 24HR 91RC Projection

The Monkee predicted a pretty good season for the Captain, and it seems to be coming through. 'Tek is hitting for a little more power than expected, and so far is putting up better numbers than his terrific 2004 season.

Doug Mirabelli missed a few weeks of action, which will keep his playing time down. I originally projected 23 RC in 175 PA's, now I've got him at 16 RC in 132 PA's. Barring injury, he'll end up with more like 150 PA's, but the rate is a bit lower (.121 RC/PA vs. the projected .131).

Kevin Millar:
577 PA 291/367/480 20HR 87RC M
549 PA 264/342/368 7 HR 63RC P

Millar is far underperforming projections from both a BA and SLG perspective. We're eagerly anticipating that patented second-half turnaround. Every day we wait, the likelihood of a trade increases.

Mark Bellhorn:
497 PA 254/368/429 14HR 65RC 2005 “Mickey Dolenz” Projection
640 PA 254/368/429 18HR 83RC 2005 “Joe’s Sea Blog” Projection
600 PA 221/332/360 11HR 66RC Projection

I named the original Monkee projection Mickey Dolenz because it was kind of goofy. Bellhorn is tough to peg, as he's never had two good full seasons in a row. I expected more playing time than the Monkee and adjusted accordingly. Thus far, we're both right, me on the playing time and Mickey on the runs created. That's not a good combination. I thought Bellhorn would repeat last year knowing that he was in the lineup every day, but that hasn't been the case, except in the strikeout category (he's on pace for 190 this season).

Bill Mueller:
500 PA 297/374/475 13HR 77RC “Peter Tork”
564 PA 285/389/406 7HR 73 RC Proj

I named Mueller's projection after Peter Tork, because it was silly. The projected power numbers were highly skewed by Mueller's outstanding 2003 season. I wrote, " think Mueller will bat in the 290s, but his OBP and SLG will probably be closer to what he put up last season – maybe even a little lower when it comes to the power numbers (note: 363 and 446, respectively). Mueller’s a great guy to have in the lineup, and an .800 OPS would be nothing for him to be ashamed of." My analysis is looking pretty good on this one, except that Mueller is drawing more walks than I thought he would, keeping his OBP up. Overall, about what I expected.

Edgar Renteria:
642 PA 305/354/435 11HR 91RC M
668 PA 272/327/387 11HR 75RC P

Like Mueller, I thought that Renteria's projection was a little optimistic because he had such a big year in 2003. I thought he'd be a little better than this, however. I wrote "Worst case scenario is that he puts up the numbers that Boston’s three shortstops accumulated last season (272/309/411-14-81), though I would be shocked if his OBP were anywhere near as low as .309." Looks like we're right in line with the "worst case scenario". Renteria is also on pace to hit into 24 double plays, which is just way too many.

Manny Ramirez:
638 PA 321/416/609 39HR 136RC “Davy Jones”
661 PA 275/361/549 41HR 109RC Proj

Damn fine numbers for most anybody but Manny. Davy Jones was the pretty Monkee, hence the name appended to this projection. IsoP and IsoD are down a little, but the big problem is the low batting average, which I don't understand. Maybe it's age, but Manny hasn't controlled his at bats this season the way we are used to seeing him do.

Johnny Damon:
698 PA 290/362/466 16HR 100RC M
700 PA 343/386/473 7HR 118RC P

Damon's having a terrific season and is probably the Red Sox offensive MVP thus far. Interestingly (and a bit ominously), his improved performance is almost entirely wrapped up in his increased batting average, as his secondary average of .228 is well below his career standard of .273 and last year's .312. Damon is being more aggressive, seeing only 3.65 pitches/PA vs. 4.1 the last two years. The result is that he's become an effective table setter by slapping a lot of singles. I don't really trust that this will continue to return these kind of results for the remainder of the year, but I still expect that he will finish ahead of the Monkee at season's end.

Trot Nixon:
375 PA 291/372/527 17HR 64RC 2005 “Mike Nesmith”
500 PA 291/372/527 23HR 85RC 2005 Joe’s SeaBlog projection
466 PA 296/377/484 17HR 87RC Proj

Mike Nesmith was the pessimistic Monkee projecting a lot less playing time than Nixon is likely to end up with this season. He's a little behind the PAs that I projected, but that should change now that Jay Payton is gone and there is no right-handed alternative to Nixon at the moment. Trot's power isn't what I thought it would be this year, but overall I think a pretty good projection by the Monkee.

Speaking of Payton, he won't be back the rest of the season, but let's see how our projections were running for him:
200 PA 287/340/451 6HR 27 RC M
268 PA 263/313/429 9HR 32 RC P

As noted above, Payton was getting more PT than I expected. (Apparently it was less than he expected, however.) Payton provided some timely hits, but his performance was a little worse than I expected. This is tied directly to his batting average, as IsoD and IsoP are right on target.

David Ortiz:
573 PA 292/370/582 33 HR 108 RC M
709 PA 314/396/585 39 HR 137 RC P

Finally, Big Papi. The Monkee didn't think Ortiz would play this much because he didn't play full time in either 2003 or 2002, and I ran the Monkee projection despite the fact that we knew he'd play nearly every day barring injury. Papi is having another monster season, on track to provide similar numbers to last year (983 OPS, 41 HR, 133 RC).

On balance I think that the Monkee is doing a pretty good job, though the lineup as a whole is probably about two wins off the pace that I predicted prior to the season. The Monkee doesn’t really have anybody pegged, though Nixon and Ortiz are right on except for the playing time. Damon and Varitek are the only guys doing better than the projection, though both could be in the ballpark by season’s end. Mueller and Renteria weren’t going to hit the Monkee projection anyway, and Mueller is actually doing just what I predicted. Millar, Bellhorn and Renteria have all disappointed thus far and need to pick up the pace in the second half to meet what the Monkee expected from them.