All Star Recap, Part 1 - Prospect Movement

My All Star Break recap turned out to be fairly lengthy, so I'm going to break it down into two posts. Here is part one. Part two will follow later today or tomorrow.

We’ve reached the All Star break (not the midpoint of the season – there are less than 60 games left) with the Sea Dogs holding the top spot in the Eastern League North Division with a 45-40 record and in a virtual tie with the rival New Hampshire Fisher Cats (46-41). Both teams are 1.5 games ahead of the hated Trenton Thunder. Norwich and Binghamton are 5 games back and New Britain pulls up the rear, 9 games out of first. The top two teams in the division go to the playoffs. That seemed like a sure thing for Portland back in April, when the team opened the season with 10 straight wins and was clearly loaded with a bunch of prospects. The Sea Dogs have scuffled a bit since then, slowed by cold, rainy weather throughout May, injuries and inconsistent play, playing five games below .500 over their last 75 contests. With a recent round of promotions, the team’s success over the last two months is uncertain. A number of terrific players remain, however, so I think the Sea Dogs still have a great chance to vie for their first EL Championship. Let’s recap the pre-All Star results.

Prospect movement: Cla Meredith got off to an outstanding start for the Sea Dogs, recording nine saves and allowing zero runs in 15 innings over the first month before being promoted to Pawtucket (and, briefly, Boston). Meredith started out OK for the PawSox but has struggled lately and has a 5.20 ERA in 27.2 innings at AAA. Since his promotion, the back end of the bullpen has been inconsistent. Marc Deschenes took over the closer role and has recorded 8 saves, but he’s been shaky of late and currently sports a 4.26 ERA. Conor Brooks has also been granted a couple of save opps, but he carries a 4.81 ERA.

Manny Delcarmen closed out a few games for the Sea Dogs, too. After a rough start, he gained control of his electrifying stuff and left town with a 3.23 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 39 innings pitched. Delcarmen has really taken to Pawtucket - 9 strikeouts (vs. 1 hit and 2 walks) in his first four innings pitched! Delcarmen was promoted at roughly the same time as starter Jon Papelbon. Paps was solid for Portland in 14 starts, with a 2.48 ERA, sub 1.00 WHIP and nearly a K per innings. He gave up just one run with 7 K’s in 6 innings in his Pawtucket debut.

Dustin Pedroia was Portland’s best hitter through mid-June, batting 324/409/508-8-40 and making pitchers work every time he batted. He also played terrific defense at second base despite being a career-long shortstop prior to this season. Since his promotion, Pedroia has hit 262/380/381-0-4 in 11 games. He missed a week after being hit on the wrist with a pitch, and his performance may have been hurt a bit by the injury.

Looking forward, Papelbon’s rotation spot will be filled by another top prospect, Anibal Sanchez, who was the top pitcher in the Carolina League before being promoted. Sanchez struck out six in four shutout innings in his Sea Dogs debut last week. Pedroia’s production won’t be replaced, but his promotion has created a permanent spot for Kenny Perez to play. Perez bounced around the lineup following his return from Pawtucket in May, and has produced enough (296/335/383-3-24) to be named to the All Star team. The bullpen has been a trouble area all season long, however Randy Beam (promoted from Wilmington) and Denney Tomori (demoted from Pawtucket) have pitched well in limited innings and Deschenes is capable of being a shutdown guy, so I do have some optimism for the pen for the remainder of the season.

I would conclude that the movement of prospects has been to the detriment of Portland's roster. Pedroia has played better than any second baseman in the organization (the big league club included), so even a fine player like Perez is a downgrade. Nobody has pitched as well out of the bullpen as Meredith and Delcarmen did, so the Dogs need someone to step up there. And while Sanchez looks to be every bit the pitcher that Papelbon is, I don't expect him to dominate AA hitters at this stage of his career like Papelbon did this season, though I certainly wouldn't rule it out, either.