All Star Break recap, Part 2 - The Holdovers

I was a little hasty in declaring the EL All Star Break in effect. Actually, the Sea Dogs swept a doubleheader from New Hampshire yesterday and now hold a two-game lead over the Fisher Cats in the EL North.

In my last post I reviewed the how player movement has impacted the Sea Dogs for the remainder of the season. Today I will discuss those players who remain on the roster from Opening Day, and what we might expect from them the rest of the way.

Several players got off to very hot starts but have cooled considerably as the year has gone along. #1 prospect Hanley Ramirez has been a bit of a disappointment in that he hasn’t hit as well as he did following his arrival here last summer. The numbers (276/340/419-5-30, 7 3B, 18 SB) aren’t all that bad, just not quite what we expected after he hit over .300 with more power in 30+ games last summer. Ramirez missed some time with an injury and seems to be hitting the ball harder since he’s returned, so I expect big things from him for the rest of the season.

Jeremy West and Jared Sandberg also posted gaudy stats in April. Both have cooled considerably. West has shown good discipline (.359 OBP, only 37 K’s), but he hasn’t been hitting the ball with authority and his power numbers (.406 SLG, 4 HR, 24 RBI) are disappointing to say the least. Power hasn’t been Sandberg’s problem – he leads the team with 16 HR, 55 RBI and .217 IsoP – and he also leads the team with 42 walks, but he’s struck out 80 times and is batting just .236. Sandberg has also committed 21 errors at (primarily) third base. For a guy with a couple of years in the bigs, this doesn’t seem acceptable.

Two former Baylor University outfielders seem to have flip-flopped in terms of "prospect" status this year. David Murphy was the highly-touted first rounder in 2003 who has failed to hit for any power in the professional ranks, causing his stock to drop despite being a solid glove in center field. He’s brought his stats up in recent weeks, however, and now has a 276/328/391-5-46 line. Murphy’s .115 IsoP, while not impressive in it’s own right, is his best since his college days, and his 46 RBI are second on the team. If these developments are the sign of his maturation as a hitter, he’ll be back among the better prospects by next season. Chris Durbin was a 10th round pick in 2003 despite very similar college stats, the result of his being a lesser defensive player and a year older than Murphy. Durbin’s been injured several times this season but in-between has been a pleasant surprise: 292/358/504-10-41 in 58 games. With his power development he has turned into a decent corner outfielder.

The other corner outfielder is another top prospect, Brandon Moss. Some said that Moss, who spent most of last season in Low-A ball, was being rushed in starting the season in Portland. Moss certainly struggled at the start, batting near .200 until mid-May, when he caught fire and brought his average up to .300 in the course of about three weeks. Moss has cooled again and is now hitting .269/348/453-11-41 on the season. That’s still good enough to make the All Star team. Moss certainly has good potential, but he has struck out a lot (87 to lead the team) and he needs to be more consistent, in my opinion. I think that he’ll hit well for the remainder of the season, and he’s been a solid defender in right field.

On the Pitching front, Jon Lester has been outstanding all season long. After pitching a seven-inning complete game one hitter on Monday (with a Sea Dogs record-tying 13 strikeouts to boot), on the heels of another 7 inning, 12K, shutout appearance, Lester has firmly entrenched himself as one of the top pitching prospects in AA. For the season, Lester has made 17 starts and pitched 98.1 innings. His ERA and WHIP drop with every outing, now standing at 2.38 and 1.10, respectively. Lester has recorded 114 strikeouts (10.4/9 innings) vs. 34 walks (3.4 K/BB). These numbers are simply outstanding, and could land him in Pawtucket sooner than anybody expected.

David Pauley also pitched a great game yesterday, and he has been a solid #3 (behind Lester and Jon Papelbon) all season long. I don't think that Pauley has as high a ceiling as those two (or new #2 Anibal Sanchez), but he's quietly put together the kind of solid season that would have made him the top pitcher on the Sea Dogs many years. Pauley has also made 17 starts with 97.1 innings pitched, 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB. I don't believe that Pauley will be promoted until next season, so he may end up being heavily relied upon down the playoff stretch. On the other hand, with Papelbon and Lester unlikely to be dealt, Pauley could be traded by the Red Sox by the end of July.

After Lester, Pauley and Sanchez, the Sea Dogs will rely on three guys who have been inconsistent this season. Kason Gabbard, Charlie Zink and Chris Smith (currently on the DL) all sport ERAs in excess of 5.00 and WHIPs in the 1.50 range. Gabbard and Smith are both in various stages of injury recovery, and Zink is still working out the kinks in the knuckleball, so I expect the inconsistency to continue. I think Smith has the most talent of the three, but he's also most recently removed from his injuries, so I don't expect much from him the rest of 2005. If Gabbard can have more Jekyll and less Hyde on the mound, he'll be a decent #4. Otherwise it'll be best to hope for the bats to be on when any of these three are pitching. I think that the Sea Dogs will get enough quality starts out of thes three to win more often than they lose the rest of the way, which should get them to the playoffs in September.

As I wrote last time, the bullpen has been inconsistent all season long, and I expect that to continue for the rest of the year. The Sea Dogs recently added Jason Pearson and Jim Mann from the independent Nashua Pride, and I think the bullpen will continue to be a revoving door until they find six consistent performers. Deschenes, Tomori and Beam should be solid, Brooks will be there all year, and the rest of the guys will have to perform when called upon.

As the Eastern League season is only 142 games long, the post All Star Game period will be a sprint. I think that the Sea Dogs have the horses to compete, even if Lester and Hanley Ramirez get the August call to Pawtucket (both very likely, in my opinion). Come out and see them while you can, because tickets are cheap and you won't be disappointed.