Delcarmen Promoted / Trade Musings

Manny Delcarmen became the latest Sea Dog to make the leap to the big leagues, getting the call to join the Red Sox today. Early season control problems led to a slow start for him in Portland, but he rebounded for a 3.23 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, and 49/20 K/BB ratio in 39 innings before being recalled to Pawtucket on July 6. In seven appearances for the PawSox, Delcarmen allowed three runs on nine hits and four walks over 9.2 innings, striking out 14 in the process. Delcarmen's fastball reaches the upper 90's and can be devastating, especially when he throws it and his off speed stuff for strikes. His sharp-breaking curveball is a knee buckler, and impossible to hit when the batter is looking for heat. Hopefully he can throw strikes and get a couple of good innings under his belt to gain some confidence, because he can help the Red Sox this season. Otherwise he might follow the footsteps of Cla Meredith as someone who looks like he needs more minor league seasoning.

There is speculation that this move is designed to showcase Delcarmen for a possible trade by the end of the week. The Red Sox are locked in a tight divisional race with the Yankees and Orioles and could clearly use some help, especially pitchers and a first baseman. There are a lot of nice prospects in the Red Sox system, and they could make a deal or two without ruining the minor league system. Here's how I would handle the various prospects in making a deadline deal (note that I am less familiar with the guys below AA, so I won't really be discussing them):

Pitchers:
Untouchable: Jon Lester and Anibal Sanchez. Lester is, in my opinion, the best pitching prospect in the system, a 21 year old lefthander with a 2.45 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 119 K's vs. 36 walks in 103 innings pitched. Sanchez is a little behind Lester in his development. At 22 years of age, Sanchez has thrown 93.1 innings between Wilmington and Portland, with a 2.21 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 117/30 K/BB ratio. Sanchez throws in the mid 90's and has a nice changeup as well.

Available: Jon Papelbon and Abe Alvarez. These two are currently at AAA and have the benefit of being more "Major League Ready" than Lester and Sanchez. Alvarez was the shining star of this minor league organization just a year ago, but hasn't been mentioned much this year with Lester, Sanchez and Papelbon pitching so well. Alvarez is a junkballer with good control. He's only 22 years old and has posted a 4.60 ERA and 1.21 WHIP, with 79 K's vs. 27 walks in 105.2 innings for Pawtucket, and looks to me like a Bill Lee clone. Papelbon has more upside than Alvarez and has great stuff. He's pitched 104.2 innings between Portland and Pawtucket with a 2.75 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, and 96/24 K/BB ratio. Terrific numbers, but he's the oldest of this bunch and might not project as high as Lester and Sanchez. I'd hate to see him go, but if he can bring a top starter in return I think the Sox would be OK.

Also Available: David Pauley, Cla Meredith, Manny Delcarmen. Meredith and now Delcarmen have both been promoted to Boston this season, so they are obviously close to major league ready. I would make them available (Delcarmen's sexy fastball and all) because relief pitching is a little more readily available than starting pitching, and in the minors, success as a reliever is less impressive than success as a starter. David Pauley has had a nice season in Portland and I think he's going to be a legitimate, back-of-the-rotation major league starter. He won't land any big game by himself, but he could be part of a package to land a stud, or he could bring some bullpen help.

The Red Sox aren't going to hand the keys to the rotation over to a bunch of younsters any time soon, so they are unlikely to have more than a spot or two available for the guys in the minors in the coming years. The fact that there are five guys in the system who could be big league starters by 2007, along with some top relievers, means that the Sox have the luxury of having pieces to work with without stripping out the whole system.

Position players:

Untouchable: Dustin Pedroia. I’ve written plenty about him here, especially before his promotion to Pawtucket. He’s struggled since being hit by a pitch shortly after his promotion, but he’s the real deal – a good contact hitter who works the count and has surprising pop, and a solid middle infield glove. If I’m the Red Sox GM, Pedroia is my second baseman for next season, so he’s not going anywhere.

Nearly Untouchable: Hanley Ramirez. Hanley is available for top-rate major league talent. He’s a true five-tool guy and has been the Sox’ #1 prospect for three years now, but he probably needs a year at AAA and he’s blocked (at shortstop) by Edgar Renteria. I think Ramirez’s star has lost a little shine because his batting average is in the .270’s right now, but he’s hitting the ball hard, drawing more walks than normal, and seems to always rise to a challenge. He’s got a higher ceiling than Pedroia does, but he’s more risky as well, which is why I would trade him before Pedroia.

Available: Brandon Moss, Jeremy West, David Murphy, Chris Durbin. Moss has the biggest upside here, but I’m concerned by his strikeouts this season. He had an unexpected breakout last season, which may turn out to be a bit of a fluke. West looks like a good hitter, but has shown zero power since the first week of the season, which won’t cut it at first base. Murphy’s recent hot streak has really resurrected his prospect status, and he’s a good fielder, but there are questions about his ability to sustain his batting performance. Durbin is a fine hitter, but so-so in the field. He needs to hit for power to be useful at the big league level. All of these guys have enough questions that they won’t land a star by themselves, but I could see one packaged with a David Pauley-type in a trade.

Also Available: Kevin Youkilis and Kelly Shoppach. Youkilis is the heir apparent to third base, but I could foresee the Sox trading him and keeping Mueller around for a couple more years while Ramirez acclimates to third base. I like Shoppach a lot, but he’s blocked by Varitek for three more years after this one. I’d like to see Shoppach start to share the position over the next couple of years, but it’s hard to see the Sox taking playing time away from ‘Tek while he’s playing as well as he has been the last few years. Since there is little to be gained by having Shoppach playing in AAA or sitting on the major league bench, I would be willing to part with him in the right deal.

There is less top-grade talent among the position players, which is why I am expecting a pitcher or two to be dealt. The Sox have Ramirez playing a few different positions lately, which can only help whether he is traded or he stays (e.g. it may make the Sox more willing to part with Youkilis). Youkilis is obviously ready for the big leagues right now, which makes him marketable but also could free up Bill Mueller for a trade. Shoppach seems to be a guy without a spot in the Red Sox future, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he were traded. I’m not sure there will be a huge market for the rest of the guys I mentioned, with the likely exception of Brandon Moss.