Wednesday, June 30, 2004

Red Sox vs. Yankees

Well, the battle has renewed, with game one being won by the bad guys, 11-3. At this writing, the Red Sox stand 6.5 games behind the Yankees with two more games left in the series. The common conception is that the Red Sox are in serious trouble if they don't win the next two games and narrow the gap to 4.5 games. This conception is not without its merits. It is still only June - but it's June 30.

Is it time to panic? The Yankees have been red-hot, while Boston's play has been uninspired over the last month or so. However, there is reason for some optimism in the Hub. According to Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, when you consider the Red Sox runs scored and allowed, adjusted for competition and park effects on scoring, they "should" have a record of 47-28, while the Yankees should be 45-29, or 1.5 games behind. ("Should" isn't really an appropriate term. What this means is that, given the way run differentials have been shown to correlate with wins and losses over the long history of baseball, this type of run distribution is more commonly found with a team playing .627 baseball. It's a Bill James thing.) One way to look at this, then, is that the Red Sox have been "unlucky" in the way they have grouped their runs - winning more than their fair share of blowouts, while not doing as well in the close games that the Yankees have. This "luck" (or random chance) factor is quite likely to level out over the course of the season, and the Yankees and Red Sox should have similar success going forward, all things being equal.

All things, of course, are not equal. Both teams will undoubtedly make a trade before the end of July, I suspect for a pitcher in both cases. The Yankees are a decent bet to upgrade at second base, while the ongoing lack of power from Kevin Millar might lead the Sox to make a move for a right-handed slugger. The return of Ellis Burks could also provide a spark for the Red Sox.

Of course, we don't know what changes will be made at this point. So we are left with looking at what kind of production the teams will get from their existing rosters going forward. Are some players due to improve or decline? Will some players get more playing time than they have thus far this season?

The answer to the second question is obviously "yes" for the Red Sox. Both Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon are back in the lineup, having only played 16 and 11 games, respectively, to this point. Trot is already swinging the bat well, and his .981 OPS far exceeds the lack of production from Gabe Kaplar and company this season. (To be fair, Kaplar has hit well against left handed pitchers, especially recently). Nomar has struggled a bit with the bat, by his standards, but his power already makes him favorable to Pokey Reese in the lineup. When the glove comes around, he'll be a true improvement. The Yankees, on the other hand, haven't lost as many key players to injury. Jason Giambi has missed a few games, but I think his problems are ongoing and he'll be out of the lineup with some frequency over the rest of the season. There has also been some trouble in center field, with Kenny Lofton missing a lot of time, but his replacements (primarily Ruben Sierra and Bubba Crosby) haven't represented a huge downgrade with the bat thus far.

Answering the first question is pretty simple. I don't expect there to be a great deal of change in production from the continuing batters. While you might argue that Jorge Posada or Mark Bellhorn are both playing above their heads, one could also argue that Derek Jeter (who has already turned it around) or Kevin Millar will likely bat better the rest of the way than they have year-to-date. (Keeping my fingers crossed on Millar!) One wild card could be the return of Ellis Burks, who, if he can return to being a lefty-masher, will be an upgrade from David Ortiz when the Sox face a Southpaw.

Finally, the pitching. I'm not going to talk about the bullpens, because both have been solid and both closers have been pretty lights-out thus far. The rotations are another story, and pretty similar at that. Both teams have "aces" (Martinez and Mussina) who have disappointed by their own standards, but have been effective overall and should be expected to pitch well the rest of the way. Both teams have #2 "aces" (Schilling and Vazquez) who have been just what was expected. Both teams have #4 and #5 guys (Lowe & Arroyo, Contreras & Lieber) who have been up - and - down and hard to figure out. I'm going to say that these guys will remain enigmatic the rest of the way, and that's why I expect both teams to go out and get someone. That leaves the #3 guys. The Yankees have a terrific but injury-prone pitcher currently on the DL with a bad back. An extended absence from Kevin Brown could be costly. The Red Sox have Tim Wakefield, who is in the midst of his worst season since 2000. Yet he's a knuckleballer who is notoriously streaky, and his numbers could regulate the rest of the way. Right now, this is the only clear advantage for the Red Sox - a likely-to-improve Wakefield vs. injury-prone Kevin Brown and his AAA fill-ins.

I still see this as a very close race, still too close to call regardless of the results of the next two games. It's most likely going to come down to health and whatever impactful trades can be swung. Don't despair, Red Sox fans, I think it's going to continue to be a fun ride!

Tuesday, June 29, 2004

Many Roster Moves

Lots of roster moves for the Sea Dogs. Not noted in the article, I think, is that George Lombard, who (as I stated in a previous post) really shouldn't be in AA, went up to Pawtucket. Also, relief ace Joe Nelson was promoted, leaving the "closer" job to Juan Perez, I guess. I was not aware until today that Nelson had previous major league experience, though with 8 runs allowed in 2 IP with the 2001 Braves, I'm sure he'd like another shot.

Sheldon Fulse and John Hattig are back, with Jesus Medrano also on the mend. This will definitely help the offense (though Lombard's leaving will hurt some). Also, James Johnson and Chris Cameron were returned from Pawtucket. Jason Howell, who has struggled this season, was demoted to Sarasota and Mike Campo, unfortunately, was released as a result of these moves.

Thursday, June 24, 2004

Mid Season Batting Report

Let's take a look at the Sea Dogs hitting stats at the midpoint of the season. I have sorted by total plate appearances (showing just the leaders, with a couple of exceptions), and the stats shown are BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, GPA, RC, and RC/27 outs, with the team leaders highlighted. (Apologies for the funky formatting - I don't know how to do tables)

Name PA BA OBP SLG OPS GPA RC RC/27
Total 2,763 .269 .354 .422 .776 .265 358 5.1
Ronenberg 308 .290 .371 .498 .869 .291 45.7 5.8
O'Keefe 264 .261 .371 .464 .835 .283 40.1 6.4
Bailey 238 .305 .437 .537 .974 .331 46.8 9.0
Perez 232 .302 .335 .433 .768 .259 30.1 5.0
Hattig 229 .282 .402 .543 .945 .317 42.0 7.9
McGowan 225 .267 .320 .325 .645 .225 20.2 3.4
Campo 202 .241 .363 .434 .797 .272 28.3 5.7
Medrano 193 .268 .304 .380 .684 .232 21.0 4.0
Nieves 180 .229 .304 .261 .565 .202 12.7 2.5
Kilburg 151 .283 .385 .362 .747 .264 19.7 5.5
Fulse 138 .265 .360 .444 .804 .273 18.5 5.2
Martinez 135 .163 .206 .211 .417 .145 5.3 1.3
Lombard 59 .385 .441 .596 1.037 .347 15.5 12.7
Alvarez 35 .233 .343 .300 .643 .229 2.7 2.8

This is a pretty decent offense, overall. There are a lot of guys who can take a walk, and the .354 OBP is very acceptable. Jeff Bailey has been mashing the ball, and leads the team in all of the major rate stats (as well as the sabermetric ones shown above) exceps slugging percentage, where he is second on the team. Bailey has split his defensive play behind the plate and in the outfield. He appears to struggle a bit catching, which is too bad, because if he can swing the bat like this (he's sporting a .255 Major League Equivalent Average, meaning he'd be an average major league hitter - above average for a catcher) he would have a career as at least a part-timer in the big leagues. The other catcher, Edgar Martinez, will never be confused with his namesake playing for the Seattle Mariners. Martinez is all glove, his hitting stats are by far the worst on the team.

Two guys who jump out at me are Mike O'Keefe and Kenny Perez. The last time I wrote about the Sea Dogs batting statistics, I singled out these two for making a lot of outs without bringing much production. I gave Perez a pass, because he plays middle infield, but I said at the time that O'Keefe's hitting was just not acceptable for a 1B/corner OF type. Well, I guess O'Keefe reads the SeaBlog, because he has really turned things around. His batting average is so-so, but he has taken over the team lead in walks and now sports a very good .371 OBP, and he's hitting for power. O'Keefe was way down on the list of runs created per 27 outs last time around, but now his 6.4 RC/27 is third behind only Bailey and John Hattig. For his part, Perez has also picked up the BA and the power (he still doesn't draw many walks, and his production stands head and shoulders above the remaining middle infielders (Medrano, Nieves, and Alvarez, who came down from Pawtucket a few weeks ago). It looks to me like the 23-year old is turning into a decent prospect for the Red Sox (or for trade bait).

Seeing how it worked so well the last time, I guess I'll call out Sean McGowan. McGowan is a big (6'6", 240 lbs) singles hitter playing first base and DH. His .320 OBP and .325 SLG wouldn't be good for a shortstop, yet there he is in the middle of the lineup. Now 27 and seeing action in AA for the fifth straight year, McGowan is really running out of time in his minor league career. And speaking of major league careers, newly acquired George Lombard is the only player on the Sea Dogs who has had one. Since his arrival a couple of weeks ago, Lombard has truly mashed EL pitching - which is to be expected. He did so the last time he saw significant time in AA, in 1998 with the Greenville Braves. At 29, Lombard is a man among boys, but it's hard to believe that his fast start is going to get him anywhere near the outfield in Fenway Park. He's played parts of five seasons with the Braves, Tigers and Devil Rays and has hit 225/279/343 in 124 big league games.

(I should be more fair to Lombard. He has actually been on the OF grass at Fenway. I saw a game in 2002 between the Tigers and Red Sox, and Lombard played CF and led off. But he'll never be there in a Red Sox uniform).

Finally, I should mention a couple of other solid bats for the Sea Dogs. Bret Ronenberg has been in the lineup more than any other Dogs batter, and he has hit very well in the process. For those who still need to know such things, Ronenberg leads Portland with 12 HR and 44 RBI on the season, and he's been perhaps the most consistent Sea Dogs batter. John Hattig has missed a couple of weeks with an injury, otherwise he would likely have the team HR lead (he currently has 10). Hattig is close behind Bailey in production for Portland, second in OBP but with a few points extra in SLG. Two players who have missed some time with injuries, Mike Campo and Sheldon Fulse, have both swung productive bats while in the lineup, and Joel Kilburg, who has filled the utility role, has shown a good eye and not much power thus far.

As with the pitching staff, I expect a good second half from Portland's batters. With O'Keefe swinging the bat well and Lombard in the lineup, I expect to see McGowan's playing time diminished for the rest of the season. There gets to be a time when a minor league team has to play the guys who are going to move forward, and I don't see McGowan doing that at this juncture. The same goes for Edgar Martinez, whose bat just can't get it done, however there are fewer options at the catcher position right now. When Hattig returns, he'll combine with Ronenberg, Bailey and Lombard (if he stays here, he really doesn't belong in AA) to form a formidable middle of the lineup. I think that the Sea Dogs are well poised for a run at the Eastern League playoffs this year.

Wednesday, June 23, 2004

Productive Outs

Larry Mahnken at the Hardball Times has presented a study on "Productive Outs", the new "junk stat" (as described by Lee Sinins) being promoted by ESPN. Mahnken basically debunks Buster Olney's contention that productive outs are a good thing.

I agree. I wrote Olney at the time he published his original article and suggested that stats like OPS with runners on base (which was ignored in the article) might also help explain how teams are scoring runs. Olney never replied. I'm glad others see this as the reactionary (against the "Moneyball" teams) junk stat that it is.

Tuesday, June 22, 2004

Sea Dogs Mid Year Pitching Review

Believe it or not, we are basically at the halfway point of the 2004 season, with 70 of the 142 scheduled games now in the books. Let's take a look at the Sea Dogs pitching leaders thus far:

Relief Pitchers. Let's look at the guys who have been used the most:
Games: Perez , Nelson 23; Howell 21; Young 16; Donaldson, Glaser 14 (2 starts)
IP: Howell 38; Perez 37.1; Glaser 31.1; Nelson 26.3; Donaldson 25.7; Young 24
Sv: Nelson 13; Perez 3; Glaser 2, Young 2; Weatherby, Larson 1

Nelson is obviously getting the "closer" workload, with just over 1 IP per game, while the rest of these guys have gone more than one inning with regularity. Let's see how they stack up:

Nelson: 1.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 1HR, .280 BA on Balls in Play (BABIP)*
Perez: 2.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2 HR, .273 BABIP
Donaldson: 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3 HR, .233 BABIP
Young: 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 2 HR, .329 BABIP
Glaser: 6.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 6.4 K/BB, 2 HR, .380 BABIP
Howell: 6.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 8 HR, .288 BABIP

Joe Nelson has looked terrific, with an extraordinarily high K rate covering for a fairly high walk rate to the tune of an excellent 3.5 K/BB ratio. He's keeping the ball in the ballpark and he doesn't look to be exceedingly lucky with his BABIP rate, either. Perez and Donaldson have posted similar numbers, both of which would be fine for a back-of-the-bullpen guy if Nelson weren't around. Donaldson's walk rate is a little higher, and his low BABIP may signal a slight increase in WHIP and ERA to come. Glaser's ERA belies otherwise good peripherals, with an OK WHIP (team WHIP is 1.41) and excellent K/9 and K/BB rates. That .380 BABIP should come down, and I expect Glaser's numbers to approach those of Donaldson and Perez the rest of the way. Jason Howell has taken the most relief innings and done the least with them, as all of his ratios compare poorly to the rest of the staff, and the 8 HR allowed is not good at all. His future innings should probably go to Ryan Larson, who has done very well (4-0, 1 sv, 3.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, .316 BABIP) since arriving from Sarasota.

Now on to the starters. Let's look at the current rotation:
GS: Alvarez 14, Zink 14, Smith 13, Gamble 10, Stevens 9
IP: Alvarez 75.1, Zink 73.1, Smith 70.1, Stevens 61.1, Gamble 56

Alvarez: 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 9 HR, .316 BABIP
Smith: 3.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 10 HR, .355 BABIP
Gamble: 4.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3 HR, .305 BABIP
Stevens: 4.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.5 K/9. 11.0 K/BB, 2 HR, .327 BABIP
Zink: 5.40 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 K/BB, 2 HR, .336 BABIP

Overall, not a bad group. Alvarez, Smith and Stevens all have shown excellent control, with Stevens only allowing 4 walks in 61 innings pitched! Smith leads the Eastern League in strikeouts while maintaining a low walk rate. He's given up quite a few home runs, but his BABIP looks a little high and should come down a bit. Alvarez is a bit more crafty than Smith, but his numbers are very similar, with the 9 HR allowed the only item of concern. Both of these guys could very well be ready for Pawtucket right now. Stevens came down from Pawtucket early this season and I believe that the 4.70 ERA represents a little bad luck, because all of the other numbers are solid. Jerome Gamble has also been solid, but the K rates don't excite me very much, and he's probably the lesser prospect of them all. That's giving Zink some credit for past performance, because he has really struggled this season in walking 6.8 batters per 9 innings pitched, pushing his WHIP way up. Most major league knuckleballers post below-average BABIP allowed, and I think the .336 mark is also indicative of Zink's problems controlling his pitch. Zink is fortunate to have only allowed 2 HR thus far, or else things could be far worse. Though still inconsistent, he's shown signs of coming around in recent weeks, and he posted good numbers in Portland last year, so I'm keeping a positive outlook on him.

Given that pitching has been a bit of a problem for the Sea Dogs this year, I believe that the current staff is overall very good and should keep Portland in a lot more games the rest of the way. The rotation is probably one of the best in the league even without Zink pitching to his expectations, and Ron Johnson has a nice stable of arms to go to in the bullpen. Things are looking good for the second half of the season.

*BABIP tracks the number of hits given up when the ball is turned over to the defense, i.e. not a BB, K or HR. The rationale behind tracking BABIP is that the pitcher has less control over BABIP than he does over K, BB and HR allowed, and wide variations may be due more to random chance than an actual indication of pitcher's ability. The Sea Dogs team average is .319 thus far.

While You Were Out - Dogs leave the Cellar

In the past week, the Portland Sea Dogs moved out of the cellar into 5th Place in the Eastern League North. After a poor start (7-13 in April), the Sea Dogs have stabilized all areas of their game, with good hitting and starting pitching and improved work from the bullpen. The Dogs are 26-24 in May and June this season.


Portland is now a game ahead of New Britain and just a game behind Trenton. The Dogs now sit four games behind the New Hampshire Fisher Cats for second place in the division. It's important to finish ahead of New Hampshire, not just because of the "natural" rivalry between Maine and NH, but because Fisher Cats are really just another variety of weasel. And nobody wants to lose to a weasel.

Juan Perez named to futures game

Sea Dogs relief pitcher Juan Perez was named to the Futures All-Star game to be played on July 11th. Perez has been the Sea Dogs second-best reliever this year (behind closer Joe Nelson), sporting a 2-0 record and 3 saves. In 37 1/3 IP, the 23-year old has a 2.41 ERA, a fine 1.10 WHIP, has averaged a strikeout per inning and has a 3:1 K:BB ratio. All impressive numbers. With the bullpen the source of many of the team's problems this year, Perez and Nelson have proven very steady. Perez, who is on the "International" squad, is the Red Sox' sole representative in the game.

Thursday, June 17, 2004

Still we Believe....

Today I went to the Lewiston Flagship Cinemas to catch "Still We Believe: The Boston Red Sox Movie" before it left town for good. I have to say that I enjoyed the movie, but not the main characters. As anybody reading this probably knows, the movie follows the Red Sox through the 2003 season, from the day tickets went on sale to the general public through the ultimate heartbreak in October.

The movie was terrific in portraying the energy of the ballpark and the emotion of the fans. Getting a "behind the scenes" glimpse of players in the clubhouse as well as of the ownership and front office was a treat. The downside was the fans themselves, who I found to be annoying. "Angry Bill" has gotten the most press, and he certainly was the most charismatic figure in the film. I found him to be whiny and annoying, a know-it-all who was pessimistic and more pessimistic depending upon the score of the game. He was the worst part of the movie, the type of Sox fan that I most despise. And we saw him in shorts, which really should have ended up on the cutting-room floor.

I also found the two female fans, Erin and Jessamy ("professional fans") to be pretty grating at times. They were very passionate, to be sure, but kind of annoying in the process. I liked the guy who owns the bar in Santa Monica - an out-of-town Red Sox haven is always cool. One note, however: when doing "good luck shots", maybe consider something a little less foofy than lemondrops. I mean, I know they taste good, but you have the fate of the Red Sox in your hands here! Lemondrops?

The film spends a lot of time on the postseason, when emotions are at there highest, as well it should. The director does a fair job of keeping the momentum going through the game action. And we get the ultimate heartache, which didn't feel much better than the first time around. (Adding insult to injury was a shot of the Owners box during the Oakland series, and there was the smiling face of the man who went on to sell my employer off, starting a chain of events that ultimately culminated in my personal unemployment. But I digress).

It's a good movie for Red Sox fans, even if I don't really know anybody as pathetic as most of those presented in the film. And I imagine it would make big bucks in NYC, though I expect the mocking of Red Sox fans will increase as a result. Go see it, or (better yet) rent it when it hits DVD.

Tuesday, June 15, 2004

Non-posting streak reaches five days

I been busy. The Sea Dogs split four with Norwich over the weekend, winning the games pitched by Alvarez and Zink, to remain in last place.

I'm thinking that the daily recaps probably won't continue. I originally conceived of this blog when I was going to have a job at Hadlock Field through the summer, but that fell through so I'm mostly regurgitating Press Herald stories about the Sea Dogs. Frankly, you can look those up yourself.

So what I'm going to do is maybe make fewer posts, but more meaningful ones. Writing about all the games takes away from being able to do deeper analysis. I hope to do some statistical analysis on a more regular basis.

Also, it looks like the Red Sox Nation web site has died a sudden but quiet death. There have been no updates in over a week, and my most recent submission was never posted. I still have items in the works that I am considering posting here, though I don't really like how these articles look in the "blog" format, so I'm going to noodle on that a bit.

Whew! That's kind of freeing to write. I hope to be back tomorrow with a real post to the blog.

Thursday, June 10, 2004

Recent Callup Earns W

The new kid done good in a 5-3 Sea Dogs victory over Trenton on Wednesday afternoon. Jarrett Gardner allowed three first inning runs, including Aaron Rifken's 9th homer on the season, before settling down and allowing three hits over his final four innings pitched. In his AA debut, Gardner outdueled Taiwanese bonus baby Chien-ming Wang, he of the 95-mph fastball and reputedly nasty stuff. The fact that Wang, who is 24 years old and currently sporting a 4.99 while repeating AA, is a top Yankee pitching prospect appears to say volumes about the Empire's minor league system.

Gardner walked one and struck out two. The balanced offense was led by two hits from Bret Ronenberg and two RBI from Kenny Perez. The Sea Dogs now return to Portland to host the New Britain Rock Cats (again!), with a chance to move back ahead of the Cats and out of the EL North Cellar.

Wednesday, June 09, 2004

8's wild in Trenton win.

The Thunder downed the Sea Dogs 8-5 Tuesday night. It was eights wild for Charlie Zink - 8 runs allowed on 8 hits and 8 walks. No control of the knuckler, I guess. He was knocked out in the 5th inning. The Red Sox Prospect guys have Zink as the #8 pitching prospect in the organization right now. Abe Alvarez remains #2.

Jarrett Gardner, #6 on the list, has been recalled to fill in for Jerome Gamble today. A 19th round pick from Louisville last year, Gardner has a 7-1 with a 1.54 ERA for the Single-A Augusta Greenjackets. He has terrific control, with just 5 walks vs. 36 K's in 58 1/3 IP this season.

Tuesday, June 08, 2004

Venus transits the Sun

In an astronomical occurance that hasn't happened in 122 years, Venus transited the Sun this morning. That means that it moved between the sun and Earth, but it's not big enough (or close enough to Earth) to have "eclipsed" the sun.

Or so they say anyway. I was outside standing in a field with 50 or so other people at the Crystal Spring farm in Brunswick between 5:30 and 7:00 this morning, and all I saw was fog. Oh, yeah, horses, cows and the like. But a lot of fog. No sun. No Venus. No "once-in-a-lifetime" spectacle. (Actually, it's twice in a lifetime. It'll happen again in 2012, but won't be visible in Maine). Fog. And it was chilly out there, too.

The host of the event, Robert Burgess, a lawyer from Brunswick and a NASA Ambassador, couldn't have been a nicer guy. Real intelligent and informative. His telescope never got out of his car.

A couple of telescopes did make it out of the car, to give the news guy some footage of people looking at fog. A bunch of folks from the Astronomical Society of Northern New England brought them. These are impressive machines, let me tell you. Dr. Keith Quattrocchi and Dr. Richard Kahn, who run the Maine Astronomical Society brought some honkin' equipment. In addition to the big scopes, Dr. Quattrocchi brought recording equipment to record and project the transit on both a TV screen and a laptop. Alas, this equipment stayed in the cars, too.

The doctors were very nice people too. Apparently, Dr. Q. has a computer-controlled observatory in his home - with which he can control the scope and see the results from the comfort of his living room. Now THAT is cool!

Harpswell Native goes #5

Mark Rogers of Orr's Island and Mt. Ararat High School was the #5 pick taken (by the Milwaukee Brewers) in the major league draft. Rogers becomes the highest drafted Maine high school player, although South Portland's Billy Swift was selected #2 overall after his senior season at UMaine. Here's the Times Record version of the story.

Rogers had been headed to the University of Miami, but this article makes it sound like he's going to go pro. I think it makes sense to go pro, for a couple of reasons:

1) If he blows out his arm in college, he never gets the payday,
2) The minor league organization is more likely to look after his arm (limited pitch counts) than the college team is. The goal of the minor league system is to get a healthy player to the major league team. The goal of the University of Miami is to win the College World Series, and lots of college coaches will send their kids out for 140, 150 pitch games. This goes back to #1.
- I think that having his dad for his coach probably really benefitted Rogers during high school. He had a longer view of the implications of Mark pitching too much.
3) He'll have cash in the bank to get his education if his playing career falls short of expectations.

(Also, being a 3.9 student, he might just get an academic scholarship regardless).

Now, if a guy is passing up college for a $100K bonus or so (or anything lower), I think that it's a bad move. For Mark Rogers, I can see mostly positives if he signs with the Brewers (the fact that it's the Brewers being the biggest negative).

Sea Dogs lose in Pitching Duel

The Portland Sea Dogs lost 2-0 to Trenton Monday night. Josh Stevens provided another strong pitching outing for Portland (7 IP, 1R, 7K's), but the Thunder's Buddy Carlyle was just a little better. Top Yankee prospect Dioner Navarro (motto: "where will I be playing August 1st?") was in the middle of both rallies, including a run scoring double.

I hate losing to the Yankees, even in AA!

Monday, June 07, 2004

Portland take 2 of 3 over Weekend.

The Sea Dogs took two of three from the New Hampshire Fisher Cats at Hadlock Field over the weekend. After letting Friday night's game slip away, 3-2, the Dogs bats took over in a 14-6 victory Saturday, while Chris Smith continued his team-leading strikeout ways in a 7-2 victory Sunday. The Sea Dogs got good starting pitching in all three games. Jerome Gamble allowed just one run on six hits in 6 2/3 IP on Friday night, Abe Alvarez gave up just three runs on six hits in 6 IP Saturday (after being staked to an early 12 run lead), and Smith matched Gamble's line in Sunday's game. Bret Ronenberg led the offense by homering in all three games.

The Sea Dogs crawled out of the EL East basement with the win. At 26-29, Portland is now 1/2 game ahead of Norwich for fifth place, but more importantly (and more amazingly), the Sea Dogs are just two games behind the Fisher Cats for second place in the division.

Friday, June 04, 2004

New Red Sox Nation Column - Derek Lowe

Here's the RSN column about Derek Lowe. No more of that Big Jab BS.

Sea Dogs finally top Binghamton

After losing four straight to the Mets, the Portland Sea Dogs finally pulled off a win, 4-3 on Thursday. The Sea Dogs fell behind early as Charlie Zink gave up two runs in the first inning, but those were the only runs that Zink allowed despite surrendering six hits and five walks in six innings pitched. After a pretty good stretch over the last two weeks, Zink's ERA is now down to 4.62 this season. Portland scored three times off reliever Blake McGinley in the 7th and 8th innings, highlighted by Mike O'Keefe's 6th home run of the season, to ice the come-from-behind victory. Ryan Larson, just recalled from Sarasota, picked up the W, while Joe Nelson collected his 11th save on the season.

Thursday, June 03, 2004

Former Dog make ML Debut (Sea Dogs rained out)

Former Portland Sea Dog Matt Treanor made his major league debut for the Marlins last night, going 1-3 with a walk in the game while catching Dontrelle Willis, who was perfect heading into the 7th inning. Treanor, who has bounced around the minors for 10 years now, hit .216 with 11 HR and 36 RBI in 85 games for the Sea Dogs in 2001-02

Wednesday, June 02, 2004

Win streak snapped

OK, the Sea Dogs have trouble with Binghamton. We get it now. No need to keep proving it, as with last night's 8-1 Mets victory, which snapped Portland's four game winning streak.

Josh Stevens allowed all eight runs in six innings pitched. The Two Davids, Wright and Bacani, each had three hits and two RBI for the Mets. (A third David, David Detienne, also chipped in with a hit and an RBI). Sean McGowan's home run accounted for Portland's scoring. The Sea Dogs are now 2-6 vs. the Mets.

Reliever Colin Young was put on the DL, and Ryan Larson was called up from Sarasota to replace him. Young has two saves and a 5.74 ERA in 11 games thus far for the Sea Dogs. Larson's prior promotion didn't go too well: 4 runs (3 earned) in 1 2/3 IP, for a 16.20 ERA. Larson has, however, posted a 2-0 record with a 1.77 ERA and one save in 20+ IP for Sarasota.

Tuesday, June 01, 2004

Dogs Sweep Cats

This time it was the Fisher Cats, as the Sea Dogs took four in a row in New Hampshire. The Sea Dogs got strong pitching throughout the series.

On Friday, Portland came from behind for a 6-3 win. The Sea Dogs have been on the other end of come-from-behind rallies several times this season, so it was good to have one go their way for a change. Charlie Zink had another good outing (two runs, 6K in 6 1/3 IP), while the offense was paced by John Hattig and Joe Kilburg (3 hits apiece), and Mike O'Keefe, who had two hits and two RBI during the late ralley.

Jerome Gamble led the way by allowing four hits and one run over seven innings in a 5-1 victory. Bret Ronenberg and Jeff Bailey both homered in dropping New Hampshire's Cameron Reimers' record to 6-2.

It was Abe Alvarez' turn on Sunday. The crafty lefty was perfect through five before finishing with a seven-inning, three hit, two run performance in the 8-5 win. Abe's control was again immaculate as he allowed no walks and struck out four during the outing before the Fisher Cats touched the bullpen for three runs. Mike Campo had three hits, including a homer, and three RBI, and Ronenberg also homered in leading the 13-hit Sea Dog attack.

Portland completed the sweep on Memorial Day, finishing off the Cats 5-3. Chris Smith started and allowed just one run in five innings pitched, striking out six in the process. Jeff Bailey hit two home runs for four RBI, while John Hattig's three hits and Mike O'Keefe's two safeties also paced the offense.

Portland is now in a virtual tie for fifth place, percentage points ahead of the New Britain Rock Cats and only 3.5 games behing the Fisher Cats for second place in the EL North.