Red Sox vs. Yankees

Well, the battle has renewed, with game one being won by the bad guys, 11-3. At this writing, the Red Sox stand 6.5 games behind the Yankees with two more games left in the series. The common conception is that the Red Sox are in serious trouble if they don't win the next two games and narrow the gap to 4.5 games. This conception is not without its merits. It is still only June - but it's June 30.

Is it time to panic? The Yankees have been red-hot, while Boston's play has been uninspired over the last month or so. However, there is reason for some optimism in the Hub. According to Baseball Prospectus' Adjusted Standings, when you consider the Red Sox runs scored and allowed, adjusted for competition and park effects on scoring, they "should" have a record of 47-28, while the Yankees should be 45-29, or 1.5 games behind. ("Should" isn't really an appropriate term. What this means is that, given the way run differentials have been shown to correlate with wins and losses over the long history of baseball, this type of run distribution is more commonly found with a team playing .627 baseball. It's a Bill James thing.) One way to look at this, then, is that the Red Sox have been "unlucky" in the way they have grouped their runs - winning more than their fair share of blowouts, while not doing as well in the close games that the Yankees have. This "luck" (or random chance) factor is quite likely to level out over the course of the season, and the Yankees and Red Sox should have similar success going forward, all things being equal.

All things, of course, are not equal. Both teams will undoubtedly make a trade before the end of July, I suspect for a pitcher in both cases. The Yankees are a decent bet to upgrade at second base, while the ongoing lack of power from Kevin Millar might lead the Sox to make a move for a right-handed slugger. The return of Ellis Burks could also provide a spark for the Red Sox.

Of course, we don't know what changes will be made at this point. So we are left with looking at what kind of production the teams will get from their existing rosters going forward. Are some players due to improve or decline? Will some players get more playing time than they have thus far this season?

The answer to the second question is obviously "yes" for the Red Sox. Both Nomar Garciaparra and Trot Nixon are back in the lineup, having only played 16 and 11 games, respectively, to this point. Trot is already swinging the bat well, and his .981 OPS far exceeds the lack of production from Gabe Kaplar and company this season. (To be fair, Kaplar has hit well against left handed pitchers, especially recently). Nomar has struggled a bit with the bat, by his standards, but his power already makes him favorable to Pokey Reese in the lineup. When the glove comes around, he'll be a true improvement. The Yankees, on the other hand, haven't lost as many key players to injury. Jason Giambi has missed a few games, but I think his problems are ongoing and he'll be out of the lineup with some frequency over the rest of the season. There has also been some trouble in center field, with Kenny Lofton missing a lot of time, but his replacements (primarily Ruben Sierra and Bubba Crosby) haven't represented a huge downgrade with the bat thus far.

Answering the first question is pretty simple. I don't expect there to be a great deal of change in production from the continuing batters. While you might argue that Jorge Posada or Mark Bellhorn are both playing above their heads, one could also argue that Derek Jeter (who has already turned it around) or Kevin Millar will likely bat better the rest of the way than they have year-to-date. (Keeping my fingers crossed on Millar!) One wild card could be the return of Ellis Burks, who, if he can return to being a lefty-masher, will be an upgrade from David Ortiz when the Sox face a Southpaw.

Finally, the pitching. I'm not going to talk about the bullpens, because both have been solid and both closers have been pretty lights-out thus far. The rotations are another story, and pretty similar at that. Both teams have "aces" (Martinez and Mussina) who have disappointed by their own standards, but have been effective overall and should be expected to pitch well the rest of the way. Both teams have #2 "aces" (Schilling and Vazquez) who have been just what was expected. Both teams have #4 and #5 guys (Lowe & Arroyo, Contreras & Lieber) who have been up - and - down and hard to figure out. I'm going to say that these guys will remain enigmatic the rest of the way, and that's why I expect both teams to go out and get someone. That leaves the #3 guys. The Yankees have a terrific but injury-prone pitcher currently on the DL with a bad back. An extended absence from Kevin Brown could be costly. The Red Sox have Tim Wakefield, who is in the midst of his worst season since 2000. Yet he's a knuckleballer who is notoriously streaky, and his numbers could regulate the rest of the way. Right now, this is the only clear advantage for the Red Sox - a likely-to-improve Wakefield vs. injury-prone Kevin Brown and his AAA fill-ins.

I still see this as a very close race, still too close to call regardless of the results of the next two games. It's most likely going to come down to health and whatever impactful trades can be swung. Don't despair, Red Sox fans, I think it's going to continue to be a fun ride!