Sea Dogs Mid Year Pitching Review

Believe it or not, we are basically at the halfway point of the 2004 season, with 70 of the 142 scheduled games now in the books. Let's take a look at the Sea Dogs pitching leaders thus far:

Relief Pitchers. Let's look at the guys who have been used the most:
Games: Perez , Nelson 23; Howell 21; Young 16; Donaldson, Glaser 14 (2 starts)
IP: Howell 38; Perez 37.1; Glaser 31.1; Nelson 26.3; Donaldson 25.7; Young 24
Sv: Nelson 13; Perez 3; Glaser 2, Young 2; Weatherby, Larson 1

Nelson is obviously getting the "closer" workload, with just over 1 IP per game, while the rest of these guys have gone more than one inning with regularity. Let's see how they stack up:

Nelson: 1.71 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 14.4 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 1HR, .280 BA on Balls in Play (BABIP)*
Perez: 2.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2 HR, .273 BABIP
Donaldson: 3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3 HR, .233 BABIP
Young: 4.88 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 6.8 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 2 HR, .329 BABIP
Glaser: 6.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 6.4 K/BB, 2 HR, .380 BABIP
Howell: 6.63 ERA, 1.61 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 8 HR, .288 BABIP

Joe Nelson has looked terrific, with an extraordinarily high K rate covering for a fairly high walk rate to the tune of an excellent 3.5 K/BB ratio. He's keeping the ball in the ballpark and he doesn't look to be exceedingly lucky with his BABIP rate, either. Perez and Donaldson have posted similar numbers, both of which would be fine for a back-of-the-bullpen guy if Nelson weren't around. Donaldson's walk rate is a little higher, and his low BABIP may signal a slight increase in WHIP and ERA to come. Glaser's ERA belies otherwise good peripherals, with an OK WHIP (team WHIP is 1.41) and excellent K/9 and K/BB rates. That .380 BABIP should come down, and I expect Glaser's numbers to approach those of Donaldson and Perez the rest of the way. Jason Howell has taken the most relief innings and done the least with them, as all of his ratios compare poorly to the rest of the staff, and the 8 HR allowed is not good at all. His future innings should probably go to Ryan Larson, who has done very well (4-0, 1 sv, 3.00 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 7.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, .316 BABIP) since arriving from Sarasota.

Now on to the starters. Let's look at the current rotation:
GS: Alvarez 14, Zink 14, Smith 13, Gamble 10, Stevens 9
IP: Alvarez 75.1, Zink 73.1, Smith 70.1, Stevens 61.1, Gamble 56

Alvarez: 3.94 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 7.1 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 9 HR, .316 BABIP
Smith: 3.97 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 10.0 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 10 HR, .355 BABIP
Gamble: 4.18 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 5.3 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3 HR, .305 BABIP
Stevens: 4.70 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 6.5 K/9. 11.0 K/BB, 2 HR, .327 BABIP
Zink: 5.40 ERA, 1.83 WHIP, 5.5 K/9, 0.8 K/BB, 2 HR, .336 BABIP

Overall, not a bad group. Alvarez, Smith and Stevens all have shown excellent control, with Stevens only allowing 4 walks in 61 innings pitched! Smith leads the Eastern League in strikeouts while maintaining a low walk rate. He's given up quite a few home runs, but his BABIP looks a little high and should come down a bit. Alvarez is a bit more crafty than Smith, but his numbers are very similar, with the 9 HR allowed the only item of concern. Both of these guys could very well be ready for Pawtucket right now. Stevens came down from Pawtucket early this season and I believe that the 4.70 ERA represents a little bad luck, because all of the other numbers are solid. Jerome Gamble has also been solid, but the K rates don't excite me very much, and he's probably the lesser prospect of them all. That's giving Zink some credit for past performance, because he has really struggled this season in walking 6.8 batters per 9 innings pitched, pushing his WHIP way up. Most major league knuckleballers post below-average BABIP allowed, and I think the .336 mark is also indicative of Zink's problems controlling his pitch. Zink is fortunate to have only allowed 2 HR thus far, or else things could be far worse. Though still inconsistent, he's shown signs of coming around in recent weeks, and he posted good numbers in Portland last year, so I'm keeping a positive outlook on him.

Given that pitching has been a bit of a problem for the Sea Dogs this year, I believe that the current staff is overall very good and should keep Portland in a lot more games the rest of the way. The rotation is probably one of the best in the league even without Zink pitching to his expectations, and Ron Johnson has a nice stable of arms to go to in the bullpen. Things are looking good for the second half of the season.

*BABIP tracks the number of hits given up when the ball is turned over to the defense, i.e. not a BB, K or HR. The rationale behind tracking BABIP is that the pitcher has less control over BABIP than he does over K, BB and HR allowed, and wide variations may be due more to random chance than an actual indication of pitcher's ability. The Sea Dogs team average is .319 thus far.