Red Sox Preview

At baseball-primer. Most of the Primer previews have been terrific. This one has its problems, which are well documented in the reader feedback section. Still, a pessimistic (if ill-reasoned) take that still calls for 90 wins as a worst-case scenario tells you how good the Sox should be.

Radio Network Expands

The Sea Dogs radio network now has 11 stations, including a new one in Southern NH. Going after the NH Fisher Cats' audience before there is one, I guess. (By the way, I'm not sure what a “Fisher Cat” is, but it’s certainly a better name than the Primaries, which was originally announced as the mascot. Between the Fisher Cats, the Rock Cats, the Bay Sox, the Sea Dogs and the Sea Wolves, it would appear the the EL has its canine, feline and nautical bases covered.)

NL Central Preview

1) Chicago 2) Houston 3) St. Louis 4) Cincinnati 5) Milwaukee 6) Pittsburgh

The smart money is against the Cubs winning the division for a second consecutive year. Actually, the smart money is against the Cubs even having a winning record for a second consecutive year – they haven’t accomplished that since they finished a six-year run under Leo Durocher in 1972! But the pitching: Prior, Wood, Maddux, Zambrano, Clement – all of whom would be at worst a #2 guy on many major league teams. Prior is dinged up at the start of the season, but he’s something special. I envision Prior, Beckett and Oswalt going head to head for the Cy Young every season for the next 10 years or so. Kerry Wood established a reputation when he struck out 20 in a game in 1998. He’s never been quite as good as the hype, but he’s still just 27 and has a couple of monster seasons ahead of him. Zambrano had a 3.11 ERA over 214 IP at age 22 last year. Maddux isn’t Maddux any longer, but he’s still one of the best. All they can expect out of the #5 slot is 200 IP at an ERA+ over 100 – in other words, a solid #3 guy. Awesome! The bullpen was decent last year, and all they did was replace “Six Finger” Alfonseca with LaTroy Hawkins. The offense has some solid bats. Sosa and Alou are getting up there in age but are still going strong. Derrek Lee is a big upgrade over what the Cubs got from Karros and Choi last year, and a full season of Ramirez will also help. A couple of key injuries could really derail the North Siders, but I see them with 90+ wins and the division title.

Houston made the biggest noise of the off season, stealing Pettitte and Clemens away from the Yankees. Combined with Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt, this is another formidable rotation, though (other than Oswalt) moreso on reputation than in what the Astros will likely see in 2004. Clemens is 41 and can’t go on forever (can he?), and Pettitte is just another, well, Wade Miller if he had never pitched for the Yankees. Like the Cubs, the Astros have a fine #5 guy in Tim Redding. The offense won’t be as potent as Chicago’s. They are old, for one thing (Bagwell, Biggio, and Kent are all 35 or older, as is Brad Ausmus, who isn’t really relevant in talking about hitting). Lance Berkman is a great hitter still in his prime (and primed for a rebound year), and guys like Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg have a lot of promise if Mr. Weebles lets them play every day. But that’s the problem with the Astros, and one of the primary reasons I have them finishing in second place. Jimy Williams seems to win everywhere he goes, but he also always seems to fiddle too much for his own good, and he ends up sitting good players to get the Geoff Blums and Mike Lansings of the world a couple hundred at bats. I think that’s enough to land the Astros in second place, though they will definitely be in the hunt for the Wild Card.

The Cardinals are a real good team, and I think that they would run away with the NL West or AL Central. Unlike the top two in the division, the Cardinals suffer from a lack of good pitching. Behind Matt Morris, there is Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Carpenter. Not exactly the 1999 Braves there. The bullpen was a disaster last year, but Fassero and Yan are gone, resulting in what is known as “addition by subtraction.” Ray King will fill in nicely there, and Izzy is healthy from the get-go. The offense has some huge bats, led of course by Albert Pujols, with Jim Edmonds and former Sea Dog star Edgar Renteria also among the best at their positions. JD Drew is gone, but Reggie Sanders can still hit and is good for 130 games a year, or about 25 fewer starts by the subs than you get with Drew. After the pitching staff, the Cardinals’ biggest weaknesses are the holes at second base and left field, which could be filled by Tony Womack(!) and Ray Lankford (!), respectively, which would be bad. Like Jimy Williams, Tony LaRussa does some things that drive me crazy, and having “versitile” guys (like Womack) who can’t hit is one of them. Another is his fascination with relief-pitching matchups, which unfortunately seems to have infected more and more managers in recent years. The good news there is that this means that we will never have to see him manage in another World Series, because he handicaps his bench with that extra LOOGY on the playoff roster. I think 85 wins or so for the Redbirds.

The Reds crashed and burned last season behind a variety of injuries, primarily to 2/3 of their terrific outfield. It may be asking a lot from Griffey, but a healthy return by he, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns should, on its own, be sufficient to land the Reds in fourth place. (I know, I know, whoopty-freakin’-doo!) Barry Larkin is a shell of his former self, and Sean Casey probably isn’t going to turn out to be the slugger we once expected, but the big three in the OF will produce a lot of runs. And the Reds will need them, because their pitching staff is a shambles. Paul Wilson led the staff last season with a 4.64 ERA. That’s the good news, and I’m not going to tell you the bad news, because it hurts my eyes looking up the stats. The pitching was bad last year. It won’t be good this year, but with Lidle, Harang, and maybe Claussen (eventually), it will be better. I think the Reds will improve by a few games, win in the low 70’s, and finish ahead of the real weak sisters of the division.

It’s against my better judgement to pick a team associated with the Seligs to finish in anything but last place, especially after they got rid of their best player, but I have a feeling about this team. Actually, that’s a little gas, and the team that I have a feeling about is probably the Pirates, not the Brewers. The Brewers have a bunch of guys with limited upside, but more upside than downside I guess. Sheets, Franklin and Bangor native Matt Kinney should be consistent in the rotation. Overbay, Helms, Spivey, Jenkins, Grieve are all guys who are good enough to be the worst regular on a good team, if that makes any sense. (Better than Enrique Wilson, IOW). Scott Podsednik came out of nowhere to contend for rookie of the year last season, and while he’s probably not going to be as good this year, he’s a solid contributor. The guys to build around (Fielder, Weekes, ex-Doy de la Rosa) are down in the minors, but there is enough at the big league level to scare the 70 win mark.

It’ll be a race with Pittsburgh, however. The Pirates are moribund, locked in this terrible spiral of signing and playing known mediocrities in the hope (I guess) that the fans want to see recognizable names on the field. I think that the nice people in the Steel City might want to see a winner on the field, but that’s just me. So it is with the 2004 Bucs, with guys like Raul Mondesi and Randall Simon on the roster. The only good regular is Jason Kendall, though Craig Wilson could be if given the chance. There is some hope for the future with guys like Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay and (maybe?) Bobby Hill. Not that these guys will ever be given a chance, mind you, because they are not Veterans. There are a couple of decent arms in the rotation, primarily Kip Wells and maybe Kris Benson, if he’s past the injury bug. Meadows and Fogg are known mediocrities who can eat up some innings before turning things over to - Jose Mesa, who is having a helluva spring, but is 38 and had a 6.52 ERA last year for the Phillies. The Pirates messing around with Jose Mesa is a perfect illustration of why I’m picking them for the cellar. 65 wins, if they are lucky.

NL East Preview

I think the NL previews will be smaller books, because I don’t know as much about the teams.
1) Philadelphia 2) Florida 3) Atlanta 4) Montreal 5) New York

Others have done it before me, but now that I say it, it’s official. The Atlanta Braves are done. They’ve dominated for like 30 years now, but the run is over. The Philadelphia Phillies have surpassed them (or, more accurately, the Braves have fallen behind the Phillies). The Phillies, with Thome, Abreu, Burrell (if he bounces back), Lieberthal (despite his scheduled season-ending injury) and Marlon Byrd in the lineup, will score a ton of runs. If they put more emphasis on performance than on payroll, David Bell will sit in favor of Chase Utley and improve the offense further. The pitching staff is overrated from top to bottom, but still solid with Millwood, Padilla, Myers, Wolf and Milton, and Billy Wagner is a huge upgrade from Jose Mesa. The Phils will win about 95 games and charge into the playoffs in a brand spanking new stadium.

There is clearly bias in my selection of the Marlins to finish second in the division. Former Sea Dogs still abound on the roster (particularly the pitching staff), and the team is the defending world champs, for cripes sake! Better yet, there was no 1997-style fire sale this time. Some key talent was not retained (Derrek Lee, Pudge Rodriguz, Ugie Urbina), but at least the Fish were able to score Hee Seop Choi for their troubles. Mike Lowell and Luis Castillo were also re-signed. The team will also benefit from a full season of Miguel Cabrera, who is a true star in the making. The pitching staff is where this team really shines, led by Josh Beckett, who threw some of the most dominating playoff games you will ever see last October. He’s been dogged by nagging injuries during his short career, but if he avoids those he’s a 20-game winner in the making. Backing him up are a solid rotation including Brad Penney, Carl Pavano and Dontrelle Willis. AJ Burnett is expected back in mid-summer. Good pitching will take you a long way. I think the Marlins will win about 87 games and contend for the wild card.

The Braves have finished in first for 12 of the last 13 seasons. For most of that time, they were led by the pitching: Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, and a revolving cast of #4 and #5 guys. Only Smoltz remains now from those glory days, and he’s in the bullpen. The 2004 rotation features Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Paul Byrd, Horacio Ramirez, and…Jaret Wright? Mostly good, but not at all dominant. Last season the rotation was not so dominant either, but the offense scored a ton of runs behind the big bats of Sheffield, Lopez, Chipper and Andruw. Now Sheffield, Javy, and Vinny Castilla (who had a decent year) are gone, too. There is still some potential in the offense. Chipper and Andruw are complemented nicely by Furcal, Marcus Giles and JD Drew, but a lot of runs are still missing. My head tells me that the Braves are better than the Marlins, but if Florida’s pitching stays healthy, they have a chance, so I’m picking it that way. Say 85 wins and golf in October for the Braves.

The Expos will be vagabonds again this year. The travel and the limited budget will again sink their chances. I think Les Expos are a good team, despite the loss of Vlad. Nick Johnson can hit, Vidro is one of the best second basemen in baseball, and Cabrera has been inconsistent throughout his career but has a high ceiling. Schneider and Wilkerson also have a great deal of promise, and veteran acquisitions Tony Batista and Carl Everett are also assets (especially comparing Batista to Fernando Tatis). I’m also high on the pitching staff, though Vazquez will be missed mightily. Livan Hernandez found a new level last season, and I like Okha and Day. A healthy return from Tony Armas, Jr. would be huge. Ultimately, the ridiculous ownership situation will keep Montreal from acquiring needed help mid season, and I think that they will finish around .500.

That leaves the Mets, who look much improved, but not good enough to challenge for the playoffs. Piazza is healthy again, which can only help. Reyes and Matsui look like a good keystone combo, and Mike Cameron is a huge upgrade over Timo Perez and Jeff Duncan. Cliff Floyd will be solid in the 120 games for which he is healthy. There is talent in the rotation, but Glavine and Leiter are past their best years, as is Steve Trachsel (whatever those years might have been). Korean Jae Weong Seo was impressive as a rookie in 2003. Things are looking up for the Mets, but they were way down last season (66 wins) that “up” means something like a 10-game improvement and another finish in the basement.

Devil Rays 8, Yankees 3

The Yankees lose, dropping them into last place.

AL East Preview

The Biggie:

1) Boston 2) New York 3) Toronto 4) Tampa Bay 5) Baltimore

I don’t know how much of this is wishful thinking, and how much is based in realistic expectations. This is the year that the Red Sox overtake the Yankees. I truly believe that the division will come down to which team is least impacted by injuries, and despite the fact that the Red Sox were abnormally healthy last year, and already have a couple of dings this year, I think that the Red Sox are less susceptible to injuries than the Yankees are this season. And for all the talk about all the Red Sox hitters who had “career years” last year, I don’t think we should expect a huge letdown this season. First off, Bill Mueller will not hit like he did last year, and likely won’t come close. Varitek is probably not going to repeat, either. Nixon and especially Ortiz had “career years”, but I see no reason why they wouldn’t be able to come close to repeating this year (other than Nixon’s back injury, which could be a problem). Millar’s “career year” consisted of high HR and RBI totals that were a result of playing time – his rate stats were far below his career averages. Manny was Manny, Nomar was Nomar, and Damon was Damon. Walker’s bat will be missed, but Reese’s glove will make up for that. And Bellhorn has the potential be Mueller Redux. (He also has the potential to be Jeremy Giambi Redux, but I’m being an optimist here). So the offense is almost as good, and the pitching is loads better. Out with John Burkett, in with Curt Schilling. Out with Fossum and Suppan, in with Kim and Arroyo. Derek Lowe, who loses effectiveness when his confidence is shaken, should be much better with Pokey’s incredible range behind him. Pedro will be Pedro, Wakefield will be Wakefield. Then you take innings that were thrown by guys like Brandon Lyon, Chad Fox and Scott Sauerbeck, and give them to Keith Foulke. What’s not to like? This team will win 100 games and the division this year.

Still, it’s asking a lot to beat the Yankees. Vazquez and Brown are better than Pettitte and Clemens. Sheffield is better than Mondesi and Garcia. And, um, Alex Rodriguez is better than Aaron Boone. On the other hand, Miguel Cairo ain’t quite up to the level of Soriano just yet. And there are other potential problems. If Giambi re-injures his knee, they are stuck with Travis Lee or Tony Clark, instead of Nick Johnson. Giambi can DH, but that means Williams or Lofton is out of the lineup. Mussina and Vazquez are rocks at the top of the rotation. Brown was healthy and his usual devastating self last season, and he really shouldn’t be thought of as more of an injury risk than Martinez, other than the fact that he is seven years older. Contreras only has 71 major league innings under his belt. He could be great, but we’re not sure yet. Jon Lieber would ordinarily be a terrific #5 guy, but he hasn’t pitched in a year and a half. Questions abound. The bullpen looks solid, but again is an aging group not without its injury history (Gordon, Karsay, even Rivera). The Yanks fall just short with 97 wins this year.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the unluckiest team in baseball, being stuck in the same division with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Jays have a lot of things going for them, including a GM (JP Ricchardi) and manager (Carlos Tosca – first manager of the Sea Dogs) of whom I think highly. Toronto scored a lot of runs last year, and with Delgado, Hinske, and rising star Vernon Wells returning, they should do more of the same in 2004. By all accounts, this team has a lot of great hitting prospects in the minor leagues, too. The rotation, which was thin behind Cy Young winner Roy Halladay last year, looks improved with Pat Hentgen, Ted Lilly and Miguel Batista in the mix. Neither Hentgen nor Batista are all that young, however (and Hentgen has recent injury history), meaning they could fall apart in a hurry. The bullpen should be decent with Aquilino Lopez and Kerry Ligtenberg.

Tampa Bay will not finish fourth this season, but I think that they have more of a future than the Orioles, so I am picking them in that order anyway. The Devil Rays have some good young talent (Huff, Baldelli, Crawford) that they augmented with some decent role players (Tino, Fick, Cruz Jr.), and I think the offense will be pretty good. With Victor Zambrano as the “ace”, however, the pitching is a bit thin. I think the acquisition of Danys Baez was another good move. The Rays cut ties with some of the usual veteran dregs that they brought to camp (Deivi Cruz, Mike Williams), which is good, while the veteran dregs still on the roster (Tino, etc.) are decent risks for the money. This is a significant departure from previous D-Ray teams, which featured wildly overpriced, unproductive veteran dregs (Greg Vaughn, Albie Lopez, Jose Canseco, etc.).

Which is a nice segue to the Orioles, who got out from under some crappy contracts and immediately signed some more. The Tejada signing was pretty good for the price, but I think he’s been a bit overrated the last couple of years. He plays every day and is a huge upgrade over Deivi Cruz regardless. Javy Lopez, on the other hand, has one (admittedly terrific) “Back from the Dead” season, and suddenly he warrants a 3-year deal? I don’t get that, for a team that’s not that close to contending. Then, because you can never have enough 1B/DH-types, the O’s inked Raffy Palmiero, who can still get it uhhhm, still hit (sorry), but why bother (unless you really want to light a fire under Jack Cust, Marty Cordova and David Segui)? “Why bother” if you’re going to sign BJ Surhoff, too? And especially “why bother” if your pitching rotation starts and ends with Sidney Ponson, who should have another couple of good seasons in him. After Ponson, the cupboard is really bare, the kind of bare where losing Omar Daal is considered a bad thing. I just don’t understand what Orioles GM Beatagan is trying to do here, and I fear that which I don’t understand. So I have to Orioles winning 64 games this year, one behind the Devil Rays.

Minor League Veterans

A Portland Press Herald story about minor league veterans who are expected to fill out the Portland and Pawtucket rosters this summer. Tim Kester is 32 and isn’t likely to ever make the big leagues, but he would still rather play baseball than go get a real job. And more power to him, I say. Too often, I hear people talk about how baseball players are only in it for the money these days. They say this because players regularly hold out for top dollar or sign with the highest bidder. We live in a country with an economic system built on the beauty of greed – capitalism doesn’t work if people aren’t striving for that next dollar. It’s hammered into our heads pretty much from the day we were born. Yet, when an athlete has the audacity to follow the capitalist principals that he has been taught, suddenly it’s a bad thing. Yes, baseball is a game, but it’s also a big business and it’s the players’ job. If I take a higher-paying job, people don’t chide me for “being in it for the money.” And make no mistake about it – I am in my current job only for the money. But that’s OK, because it’s the American Way. Unless you are an athlete.

Guys like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Randy Johnson, Edgar Martinez – they don’t stay in the game just for the money. They all have plenty of money. They stay in the game because they love to play baseball. That doesn’t stop them from wanting the most that they can get, but I don’t think that’s a contradiction. They love baseball. And so do Tim Kester, and Trace Coquillette, and all the other guys in this article. They play baseball for the love of the game. And that’s a good thing.

AL Central Preview

Yuck! 1) Minnesota 2) Kansas City 3) Chicago 4) Cleveland 5) Detroit.

Minnesota won 90 games last season and while I’m not enthralled with all of their moves this season, the fact remains that they are very talented and have a lot of young players who should still be improving. A.J. Pierzinski was a real good hitting catcher, but I don’t think they’ll miss him much after Joe Mauer gets some significant playing time. Shannon Stewart should provide a lesson in “correlation” vs. “causation.” He’s a good player, but the Twins have a ton of good corner outfielders, and with a limited budget may have been better served spending the money elsewhere. Like second base, where Rivas doesn’t field particularly well, and can’t hit at all. The pitching is decent, led by Radke, Santana (in the rotation all year) and Lohse. If Joe Mays could come anywhere near his 2001 performance all would be good. Getting rid of Reed was a positive, but they replaced him with another worthless Rick (Helling), who fortunately broke a leg and won’t be on the mound at the start of the season. I think the Twins will win 87-88 games, which should be enough in this division.

I really really really wanted to pick the Royals to win the Central. They’ll give the Twins a run for their money, but I just don’t think that they have the pitching to keep up. Brian Anderson, Kevin Appier, Jimmy Gobble and Darrell May don’t inspire a ton of confidence. Gobble’s young and could surprise. May seemingly resurrected his career last year, but I’m not going to bet on a repeat from a guy in his 30’s. He could go all Jamie Moyer on me, but that’s not where the smart money is. The bullpen, however, is hugely improved this year. The Royals gave 142 innings (about 10% of the season total) to relievers with ERAs above 6.00 last season – most well above 6. (That’s not counting Chris George’s 93 IP at a 7.11 ERA, all as a starter, mind you). The Royals’ offense will be better, replacing Brent Mayne and his 651 OPS with Benito Santiago, who keeps chugging along (unless, of course, that BALCO thing played a factor), and bringing in Matt Stairs to keep Ken Harvey from having to bat against RHP. Also, Raul Ibanez won’t be missed if Juan Gone can play 120 games. Sweeney should be good for an extra 100 PAs this year, and Carlos Beltran is one of the best players in the big leagues who is just now entering his prime. The Royals are better than last year, but their record last year was a bit of an aberration (they gave up more runs than they scored), so I’ll say 85 wins for them.

I really really wanted to pick the White Sox to finish lower than third, because I believe Ozzie Guillen will turn out to be a worse manager than Larry Bowa. Ozzie was a slap hitter who never took a pitch and wants everybody to play the same way he did. It’ll be fun the first time he calls for a bunt from Frank Thomas. Still, the offense looks pretty good. Thomas can still hit and Ordonez is one of the best in the league. There’s no way Konerko and Crede can be as bad as last year. The pitching’s a little thin. The ChiSox didn’t get anybody to replace Colon, Buehrle gets away with a lot of balls in play (though last year is probably representative of the type of season he’ll probably put up), and you read it here first, Loaiza will not win 21 games this season. Ozzie’s not concerned with pitch counts, so look for someone to end up on the DL with a sore arm, too. Ozzie also has Billy Koch closing out games in spring training, so you know he’ll bounce back, but Marte is the best reliever in the pen and he’ll pitch a lot with the game on the line, too. I believe that the Sox have the talent to contend, but I think Guillen will botch things up enough that a couple of games over .500 is the best they can hope for.

Cleveland is a year or two away from contending. They have a real nice core of young players (Jody Gerut, Milton Bradley, Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, Ryan Ludwick) and some good young pitching (Sabathia, Billy Traber, Cliff Lee, Jason Stanford), but I think they’ll take a couple of years to gel. Though I wasn’t impressed with the way they tried to screw the man, the Indians were smart to realize that they didn’t need to spend premium dollars for a closer and let Danys Baez go. Whether or not he should have been in the rotation to begin with is another topic. Anyway, say 70-75 wins for Cleveland this year.

The Detroit Tigers were historically bad last season. They pretty much could have fielded the same team this year and won more games than they did last year, because nobody is that bad. But the Tigers did better than that – they actually went out and got better players this year. Primary, of course, is Pudge Rodriguez, who will be one of the best hitting catchers in the league, as opposed to guys like Inge who barely put up a 600 OPS. Carlos Guillen was another good pickup. There are a lot of good shortstops in the AL (some of whom are now third basemen), but when you get past them, Guillen is as good as you’ll find. Rondell White is another upgrade, but I think that the money spent on Fernando Vina could have gone elsewhere. The pitching has to be better. Bonderman is only 21 and has a lot of promise. Cornejo added a new split finger pitch, and might even get his K rate over 3/9 IP. Mike Maroth is another soft-tosser who will be helped by being relied upon less. The Tigers also added Jason Johnson, who is nobody’s savior but is still a clear upgrade over Knotts and Bernero and Will Ledezma. It also looks like the Tigers are going to sign UUUrbina, who will be their best reliever, but why you wanna spend the extra money if you’re going to finish in last place again. Still, there is hope again in Detroit, and the side benefit to having one of the worst teams of all time is that you get to have one of the biggest single-season improvements of all time. I think they improve by 20+ wins this year, but fall a bit short of 70 total.

Team by Team analysis

By the way, if you want to see some real good in-depth analysis of each team, check in at BaseballPrimer.com. The Hardball Times is a new site that also has some real good analysis. My predictions are much more cursory and are more of an amusement than anything else, but these two places really get in-depth.

AL West Predictions

I’m going to start with the low-hanging fruit here – the AL West has the fewest teams, therefore should be easiest to analyze.
1) Oakland, 2) Anaheim, 3) Seattle, 4) Texas

Lots of people are talking up the free-spending Angels, but it really comes down to the arms – Hudson, Mulder and Zito are easily the best top three in the West, Harden could very well follow in their footsteps, and Mark Redman is Just Fine as a #5 guy. For all the talk about Ted Lilly (who I think is a fine pitcher), he’s 28 and has only posted an ERA+ greater than 100 once in his career. Offensively, I think the A’s are just as good as last year despite losing Tejada. Bobby Crosby hit well in the minors, and I think Tejada has already peaked. Replacing Ramon Hernandez with Damian Miller is a downgrade, but everything else is a positive. Chavez and Ellis are still young enough that they should be on the upswing. Platooning Hatteberg with Karros has to be better than playing Hatteberg every day, and Jermaine Dye can’t be any worse, though Byrnes, Guillen and McMillan (former Sea Dog) were decent last year. Primarily though, I don’t think that you can understate how much of an upgrade Bobby Kielty and Mark Kotsay (former Sea Dog) are over Singleton and Long, and that doesn’t consider the suckage that is Long’s glove. The A’s won 96 games last season and should be good for the same this year.

Without question, the Angels will be better in 2004, but the improvement is greatly exaggerated, IMO. Replacing Aaron Sele and Kevin Appier’s 2003 performances with Colon and Escobar is a big plus, even if I’m not as optimistic as many about Escobar’s ability to sustain a high level of performance for 200 innings. I think they’ll get a typical Escobar season: 180 IP, 4.25 ERA, which is still pretty good. I also think that Lackey and Washburn are good bets to improve, and the bullpen looks to be devastating again. On offense, any team would be better with Vlad in the lineup, and the Angels aren’t an exception. He’ll be taking the at bats of guys like Jeff Davanon and Eric Owens. Adding Vlad and Jose Guillen (who I think was a bad signing – I believe he’ll be a one-year wonder) to the outfield, however, moves Darin Erstad to first base. Erstad is the best fielding center fielder in the majors, but one of the worst hitters at that position. He’s probably an overall asset in CF, but a big sinkhole at first base with a 700 OPS. 2000 looks a long way away for this guy. Still, a return to health by Eckstein and (especially) Glaus, and the offense is better overall. Not good enough to catch the Athletics, however – say 90 wins or so.

Things are grim in Seattle, where the window of opportunity is about to slam shut. They had a good rotation last year, but there are warning signs. Moyer is 41 and could easily fall off the cliff real soon. Garcia hasn’t been good for two seasons, and I question whether he’ll ever meet his early promise. Gil Meche is still young, but you wonder if his arm will hold up again. Ryan Franklin is either a late bloomer or a flash in the pan. Joel Pinero promises to be real good. None of the Mariners starters missed a turn last year. The odds of that happening again are pretty slim. Eddie Guardado has put together a couple of real nice years as Seattle’s closer, but he’s 33 and doesn’t promise to be any better than what the M’s had last year, anyway. Speaking of getting old, there is everybody on the offense. The good news is that Scott Spiezio replaces Jeff Cirillo at third. The bad news is that there is no more good news. OK, Ichiro! will electrify things again, but nothing more. At age 35, Bret Boone isn’t likely to be as good as last season. Ditto Olerud and Edgar. The M’s replaced a good shortstop (Carlos Guillen) with an older, inferior player (Rich Aurilia). They replaced a great fielding CF (Cameron) who strikes out a lot with an older, inferior player (Ibanez) who hit a lot of homers in a home run park the last couple of years. By moving Randy Winn from left to center, the Mariners are worse at two OF positions. Not good. I think they’ll be lucky to win 85 games this season.

The Rangers finished in last place with the 2003 Most Valuable Player on their roster. Now they don’t have him. Soriano is good, but he’s not nearly as valuable as ARod. Kenny Rogers promises to be better than anybody the Rangers started last year, and Chan Ho Park has to be better, doesn’t he? Still, the pitching is bad and the offense (Blalock, Tiexiera and Soriano excepted) is bad. The silver lining for Tom Hicks is that he’ll get to keep more of his money, but the Rangers won’t come within 10 games of the Mariners.

Counter

Hey! I got the counter on there! Where is everybody?

Also, I'm going to do MLB predictions/previews starting as soon as tomorrow. Something to look forward to, everybody! (anybody?)

Links have returned

Extensive links now posted to the right.

Dogs on the Shelf

Three prospective Sea Dogs were put on the DL. OF Justin Headley and P Greg Montalbano are out for a couple of months with shoulder injuries, and P Brett Rudrude had Tommy John surgery last fall and will miss all season. Montalbano is a Massachusetts boy who was a 5th round pick way back when, now he's 26 with a lenghty injury history. Headley will be 29 soon and posted a .700 OPS last season. Rudrude had decent peripherals in Sarasota last season (1.27 WHIP, 4.22 ERA, 3.27 K/BB ratio), but also isn't a top prospect.

More Links

Damn! I went with a new format and lost my links. Also my comments pages. What a dummy!

More Sea Dogs stuff

I plan to post a lot of the Portland Press Herald links on this page, so here are a couple from the last couple of days:

John Nathans hopes to return to Portland. A hard working catcher who has never been a starter in the minors, he's unlikely to reach the big leagues.

John Hattig (3B, #10 position player) is the only player from Guam in organized baseball. .385 OBP/.806 OPS in Sarasota last season. A third baseman, and only one year younger than Youkilis, his major league career may hinge on a trade (of either Youkilis or himself).

Prospects Heading to Portland

According to the Portland Press Herald, in addition to Charlie Zink (Boston's #4 pitching prospect, according to soxprospects.com) and Jerome Gamble (#9), it now looks like Abe Alvarez (#3) and Chris Smith (not in the top 12) will be here as well. I'm looking forward to watching Zink, the knuckleballer on the fast track to the show, and I'm really looking forward watching the junkballing Alvarez. Abe is a flaky lefty (just look at his picture in his soxprospects.com profile) who had a 23-5, 2.52 record in two seasons at Long Beach State. He saw very limited action at Lowell last season (19 IP, after 122 during his college season), but posted an insane 0.55 WHIP, 19/2 K/BB ratio, and allowed only two unearned runs.

On the position-player side, two highly anticipated prospects look to start the season in Sarasota. SS Hanley Ramirez (#3 position-player prospect) and OF David Murphy, (#5, top pick for the Sox last season) might be on track to reach Portland by mid summer. Ramirez' progression would appear to be especially important if the Sox fail to resign Nomar. Ramirez has had some discipline issues (reportedly due to immaturity - he just turned 20), but he posted a 730 OPS in Augusta with good speed and good pop. A little more plate discipline would serve him well. Murphy was a star at Baylor, and posted a .453 OBP for Lowell for 21 games before struggling a bit in Sarasota (636 OPS). Murphy showed none of the power he had in college, but hopefully that will return when he becomes more familiar with wooden bats and professional pitching.

(Other) We are the Champions!

Team Matero comes back from near oblivion to win the Good Time Lanes Tuesday Night Speed League. After struggling all year and having to win a sudden-death rolloff in the final week of the regular season, the team easily moved past Team Burnett in the semifinals before disposing of Team Singleton in the five-game final by a cool 35 (or so) pins. David and Karen, per usual, bowled poorly vs. Mom's team, but Joe set the pace with a 149 in the first game and finished with a 614 to lead the team to victory.

After carrying the lowest average on the team during the regular season, Joe (I) was the top bowler in both rolloff rounds to carry the team. Two week totals:

Joe 593-614/120.7 avg (135.7 net)
Karen 560-550/111.0 avg (124.3 net)
David 567-535/110.2 avg (125.2 net)

It didn't hurt that Jim Singleton bowled poorly this week, but I'm giving Joe (myself) most of the credit for the victory.

Hadlock gets new video board

Hadlock Field goes high-tech with a new video scoreboard. Here’s hoping that they use it for good (instant replays), not evil (fan dance contest).

Updates

Added some links and a comments host. Tried to add a counter but, as has been my experience with these things, I don't appear to have succeeded.

Welcome!

Welcome to Joe's SeaBlog. I plan to use this site to share my experiences and observations from attending Portland Sea Dogs baseball games at Hadlock Field in Portland, Maine this summer. My first impression is that my Blog name might imply something other than "Baseball", but what the hey. It is what it is right now.

Soon I will be adding links to favorite sites (primarily baseball) to this page.

The world doesn't need another baseball blog, but it's getting one anyway. I'm a niche player. Hopefully, I'll find that niche.