NL Central Preview

1) Chicago 2) Houston 3) St. Louis 4) Cincinnati 5) Milwaukee 6) Pittsburgh

The smart money is against the Cubs winning the division for a second consecutive year. Actually, the smart money is against the Cubs even having a winning record for a second consecutive year – they haven’t accomplished that since they finished a six-year run under Leo Durocher in 1972! But the pitching: Prior, Wood, Maddux, Zambrano, Clement – all of whom would be at worst a #2 guy on many major league teams. Prior is dinged up at the start of the season, but he’s something special. I envision Prior, Beckett and Oswalt going head to head for the Cy Young every season for the next 10 years or so. Kerry Wood established a reputation when he struck out 20 in a game in 1998. He’s never been quite as good as the hype, but he’s still just 27 and has a couple of monster seasons ahead of him. Zambrano had a 3.11 ERA over 214 IP at age 22 last year. Maddux isn’t Maddux any longer, but he’s still one of the best. All they can expect out of the #5 slot is 200 IP at an ERA+ over 100 – in other words, a solid #3 guy. Awesome! The bullpen was decent last year, and all they did was replace “Six Finger” Alfonseca with LaTroy Hawkins. The offense has some solid bats. Sosa and Alou are getting up there in age but are still going strong. Derrek Lee is a big upgrade over what the Cubs got from Karros and Choi last year, and a full season of Ramirez will also help. A couple of key injuries could really derail the North Siders, but I see them with 90+ wins and the division title.

Houston made the biggest noise of the off season, stealing Pettitte and Clemens away from the Yankees. Combined with Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt, this is another formidable rotation, though (other than Oswalt) moreso on reputation than in what the Astros will likely see in 2004. Clemens is 41 and can’t go on forever (can he?), and Pettitte is just another, well, Wade Miller if he had never pitched for the Yankees. Like the Cubs, the Astros have a fine #5 guy in Tim Redding. The offense won’t be as potent as Chicago’s. They are old, for one thing (Bagwell, Biggio, and Kent are all 35 or older, as is Brad Ausmus, who isn’t really relevant in talking about hitting). Lance Berkman is a great hitter still in his prime (and primed for a rebound year), and guys like Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg have a lot of promise if Mr. Weebles lets them play every day. But that’s the problem with the Astros, and one of the primary reasons I have them finishing in second place. Jimy Williams seems to win everywhere he goes, but he also always seems to fiddle too much for his own good, and he ends up sitting good players to get the Geoff Blums and Mike Lansings of the world a couple hundred at bats. I think that’s enough to land the Astros in second place, though they will definitely be in the hunt for the Wild Card.

The Cardinals are a real good team, and I think that they would run away with the NL West or AL Central. Unlike the top two in the division, the Cardinals suffer from a lack of good pitching. Behind Matt Morris, there is Woody Williams, Jeff Suppan, and Chris Carpenter. Not exactly the 1999 Braves there. The bullpen was a disaster last year, but Fassero and Yan are gone, resulting in what is known as “addition by subtraction.” Ray King will fill in nicely there, and Izzy is healthy from the get-go. The offense has some huge bats, led of course by Albert Pujols, with Jim Edmonds and former Sea Dog star Edgar Renteria also among the best at their positions. JD Drew is gone, but Reggie Sanders can still hit and is good for 130 games a year, or about 25 fewer starts by the subs than you get with Drew. After the pitching staff, the Cardinals’ biggest weaknesses are the holes at second base and left field, which could be filled by Tony Womack(!) and Ray Lankford (!), respectively, which would be bad. Like Jimy Williams, Tony LaRussa does some things that drive me crazy, and having “versitile” guys (like Womack) who can’t hit is one of them. Another is his fascination with relief-pitching matchups, which unfortunately seems to have infected more and more managers in recent years. The good news there is that this means that we will never have to see him manage in another World Series, because he handicaps his bench with that extra LOOGY on the playoff roster. I think 85 wins or so for the Redbirds.

The Reds crashed and burned last season behind a variety of injuries, primarily to 2/3 of their terrific outfield. It may be asking a lot from Griffey, but a healthy return by he, Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns should, on its own, be sufficient to land the Reds in fourth place. (I know, I know, whoopty-freakin’-doo!) Barry Larkin is a shell of his former self, and Sean Casey probably isn’t going to turn out to be the slugger we once expected, but the big three in the OF will produce a lot of runs. And the Reds will need them, because their pitching staff is a shambles. Paul Wilson led the staff last season with a 4.64 ERA. That’s the good news, and I’m not going to tell you the bad news, because it hurts my eyes looking up the stats. The pitching was bad last year. It won’t be good this year, but with Lidle, Harang, and maybe Claussen (eventually), it will be better. I think the Reds will improve by a few games, win in the low 70’s, and finish ahead of the real weak sisters of the division.

It’s against my better judgement to pick a team associated with the Seligs to finish in anything but last place, especially after they got rid of their best player, but I have a feeling about this team. Actually, that’s a little gas, and the team that I have a feeling about is probably the Pirates, not the Brewers. The Brewers have a bunch of guys with limited upside, but more upside than downside I guess. Sheets, Franklin and Bangor native Matt Kinney should be consistent in the rotation. Overbay, Helms, Spivey, Jenkins, Grieve are all guys who are good enough to be the worst regular on a good team, if that makes any sense. (Better than Enrique Wilson, IOW). Scott Podsednik came out of nowhere to contend for rookie of the year last season, and while he’s probably not going to be as good this year, he’s a solid contributor. The guys to build around (Fielder, Weekes, ex-Doy de la Rosa) are down in the minors, but there is enough at the big league level to scare the 70 win mark.

It’ll be a race with Pittsburgh, however. The Pirates are moribund, locked in this terrible spiral of signing and playing known mediocrities in the hope (I guess) that the fans want to see recognizable names on the field. I think that the nice people in the Steel City might want to see a winner on the field, but that’s just me. So it is with the 2004 Bucs, with guys like Raul Mondesi and Randall Simon on the roster. The only good regular is Jason Kendall, though Craig Wilson could be if given the chance. There is some hope for the future with guys like Freddy Sanchez, Jason Bay and (maybe?) Bobby Hill. Not that these guys will ever be given a chance, mind you, because they are not Veterans. There are a couple of decent arms in the rotation, primarily Kip Wells and maybe Kris Benson, if he’s past the injury bug. Meadows and Fogg are known mediocrities who can eat up some innings before turning things over to - Jose Mesa, who is having a helluva spring, but is 38 and had a 6.52 ERA last year for the Phillies. The Pirates messing around with Jose Mesa is a perfect illustration of why I’m picking them for the cellar. 65 wins, if they are lucky.