AL West Predictions

I’m going to start with the low-hanging fruit here – the AL West has the fewest teams, therefore should be easiest to analyze.
1) Oakland, 2) Anaheim, 3) Seattle, 4) Texas

Lots of people are talking up the free-spending Angels, but it really comes down to the arms – Hudson, Mulder and Zito are easily the best top three in the West, Harden could very well follow in their footsteps, and Mark Redman is Just Fine as a #5 guy. For all the talk about Ted Lilly (who I think is a fine pitcher), he’s 28 and has only posted an ERA+ greater than 100 once in his career. Offensively, I think the A’s are just as good as last year despite losing Tejada. Bobby Crosby hit well in the minors, and I think Tejada has already peaked. Replacing Ramon Hernandez with Damian Miller is a downgrade, but everything else is a positive. Chavez and Ellis are still young enough that they should be on the upswing. Platooning Hatteberg with Karros has to be better than playing Hatteberg every day, and Jermaine Dye can’t be any worse, though Byrnes, Guillen and McMillan (former Sea Dog) were decent last year. Primarily though, I don’t think that you can understate how much of an upgrade Bobby Kielty and Mark Kotsay (former Sea Dog) are over Singleton and Long, and that doesn’t consider the suckage that is Long’s glove. The A’s won 96 games last season and should be good for the same this year.

Without question, the Angels will be better in 2004, but the improvement is greatly exaggerated, IMO. Replacing Aaron Sele and Kevin Appier’s 2003 performances with Colon and Escobar is a big plus, even if I’m not as optimistic as many about Escobar’s ability to sustain a high level of performance for 200 innings. I think they’ll get a typical Escobar season: 180 IP, 4.25 ERA, which is still pretty good. I also think that Lackey and Washburn are good bets to improve, and the bullpen looks to be devastating again. On offense, any team would be better with Vlad in the lineup, and the Angels aren’t an exception. He’ll be taking the at bats of guys like Jeff Davanon and Eric Owens. Adding Vlad and Jose Guillen (who I think was a bad signing – I believe he’ll be a one-year wonder) to the outfield, however, moves Darin Erstad to first base. Erstad is the best fielding center fielder in the majors, but one of the worst hitters at that position. He’s probably an overall asset in CF, but a big sinkhole at first base with a 700 OPS. 2000 looks a long way away for this guy. Still, a return to health by Eckstein and (especially) Glaus, and the offense is better overall. Not good enough to catch the Athletics, however – say 90 wins or so.

Things are grim in Seattle, where the window of opportunity is about to slam shut. They had a good rotation last year, but there are warning signs. Moyer is 41 and could easily fall off the cliff real soon. Garcia hasn’t been good for two seasons, and I question whether he’ll ever meet his early promise. Gil Meche is still young, but you wonder if his arm will hold up again. Ryan Franklin is either a late bloomer or a flash in the pan. Joel Pinero promises to be real good. None of the Mariners starters missed a turn last year. The odds of that happening again are pretty slim. Eddie Guardado has put together a couple of real nice years as Seattle’s closer, but he’s 33 and doesn’t promise to be any better than what the M’s had last year, anyway. Speaking of getting old, there is everybody on the offense. The good news is that Scott Spiezio replaces Jeff Cirillo at third. The bad news is that there is no more good news. OK, Ichiro! will electrify things again, but nothing more. At age 35, Bret Boone isn’t likely to be as good as last season. Ditto Olerud and Edgar. The M’s replaced a good shortstop (Carlos Guillen) with an older, inferior player (Rich Aurilia). They replaced a great fielding CF (Cameron) who strikes out a lot with an older, inferior player (Ibanez) who hit a lot of homers in a home run park the last couple of years. By moving Randy Winn from left to center, the Mariners are worse at two OF positions. Not good. I think they’ll be lucky to win 85 games this season.

The Rangers finished in last place with the 2003 Most Valuable Player on their roster. Now they don’t have him. Soriano is good, but he’s not nearly as valuable as ARod. Kenny Rogers promises to be better than anybody the Rangers started last year, and Chan Ho Park has to be better, doesn’t he? Still, the pitching is bad and the offense (Blalock, Tiexiera and Soriano excepted) is bad. The silver lining for Tom Hicks is that he’ll get to keep more of his money, but the Rangers won’t come within 10 games of the Mariners.