NL East Preview

I think the NL previews will be smaller books, because I don’t know as much about the teams.
1) Philadelphia 2) Florida 3) Atlanta 4) Montreal 5) New York

Others have done it before me, but now that I say it, it’s official. The Atlanta Braves are done. They’ve dominated for like 30 years now, but the run is over. The Philadelphia Phillies have surpassed them (or, more accurately, the Braves have fallen behind the Phillies). The Phillies, with Thome, Abreu, Burrell (if he bounces back), Lieberthal (despite his scheduled season-ending injury) and Marlon Byrd in the lineup, will score a ton of runs. If they put more emphasis on performance than on payroll, David Bell will sit in favor of Chase Utley and improve the offense further. The pitching staff is overrated from top to bottom, but still solid with Millwood, Padilla, Myers, Wolf and Milton, and Billy Wagner is a huge upgrade from Jose Mesa. The Phils will win about 95 games and charge into the playoffs in a brand spanking new stadium.

There is clearly bias in my selection of the Marlins to finish second in the division. Former Sea Dogs still abound on the roster (particularly the pitching staff), and the team is the defending world champs, for cripes sake! Better yet, there was no 1997-style fire sale this time. Some key talent was not retained (Derrek Lee, Pudge Rodriguz, Ugie Urbina), but at least the Fish were able to score Hee Seop Choi for their troubles. Mike Lowell and Luis Castillo were also re-signed. The team will also benefit from a full season of Miguel Cabrera, who is a true star in the making. The pitching staff is where this team really shines, led by Josh Beckett, who threw some of the most dominating playoff games you will ever see last October. He’s been dogged by nagging injuries during his short career, but if he avoids those he’s a 20-game winner in the making. Backing him up are a solid rotation including Brad Penney, Carl Pavano and Dontrelle Willis. AJ Burnett is expected back in mid-summer. Good pitching will take you a long way. I think the Marlins will win about 87 games and contend for the wild card.

The Braves have finished in first for 12 of the last 13 seasons. For most of that time, they were led by the pitching: Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, and a revolving cast of #4 and #5 guys. Only Smoltz remains now from those glory days, and he’s in the bullpen. The 2004 rotation features Russ Ortiz, Mike Hampton, Paul Byrd, Horacio Ramirez, and…Jaret Wright? Mostly good, but not at all dominant. Last season the rotation was not so dominant either, but the offense scored a ton of runs behind the big bats of Sheffield, Lopez, Chipper and Andruw. Now Sheffield, Javy, and Vinny Castilla (who had a decent year) are gone, too. There is still some potential in the offense. Chipper and Andruw are complemented nicely by Furcal, Marcus Giles and JD Drew, but a lot of runs are still missing. My head tells me that the Braves are better than the Marlins, but if Florida’s pitching stays healthy, they have a chance, so I’m picking it that way. Say 85 wins and golf in October for the Braves.

The Expos will be vagabonds again this year. The travel and the limited budget will again sink their chances. I think Les Expos are a good team, despite the loss of Vlad. Nick Johnson can hit, Vidro is one of the best second basemen in baseball, and Cabrera has been inconsistent throughout his career but has a high ceiling. Schneider and Wilkerson also have a great deal of promise, and veteran acquisitions Tony Batista and Carl Everett are also assets (especially comparing Batista to Fernando Tatis). I’m also high on the pitching staff, though Vazquez will be missed mightily. Livan Hernandez found a new level last season, and I like Okha and Day. A healthy return from Tony Armas, Jr. would be huge. Ultimately, the ridiculous ownership situation will keep Montreal from acquiring needed help mid season, and I think that they will finish around .500.

That leaves the Mets, who look much improved, but not good enough to challenge for the playoffs. Piazza is healthy again, which can only help. Reyes and Matsui look like a good keystone combo, and Mike Cameron is a huge upgrade over Timo Perez and Jeff Duncan. Cliff Floyd will be solid in the 120 games for which he is healthy. There is talent in the rotation, but Glavine and Leiter are past their best years, as is Steve Trachsel (whatever those years might have been). Korean Jae Weong Seo was impressive as a rookie in 2003. Things are looking up for the Mets, but they were way down last season (66 wins) that “up” means something like a 10-game improvement and another finish in the basement.