AL East Preview

The Biggie:

1) Boston 2) New York 3) Toronto 4) Tampa Bay 5) Baltimore

I don’t know how much of this is wishful thinking, and how much is based in realistic expectations. This is the year that the Red Sox overtake the Yankees. I truly believe that the division will come down to which team is least impacted by injuries, and despite the fact that the Red Sox were abnormally healthy last year, and already have a couple of dings this year, I think that the Red Sox are less susceptible to injuries than the Yankees are this season. And for all the talk about all the Red Sox hitters who had “career years” last year, I don’t think we should expect a huge letdown this season. First off, Bill Mueller will not hit like he did last year, and likely won’t come close. Varitek is probably not going to repeat, either. Nixon and especially Ortiz had “career years”, but I see no reason why they wouldn’t be able to come close to repeating this year (other than Nixon’s back injury, which could be a problem). Millar’s “career year” consisted of high HR and RBI totals that were a result of playing time – his rate stats were far below his career averages. Manny was Manny, Nomar was Nomar, and Damon was Damon. Walker’s bat will be missed, but Reese’s glove will make up for that. And Bellhorn has the potential be Mueller Redux. (He also has the potential to be Jeremy Giambi Redux, but I’m being an optimist here). So the offense is almost as good, and the pitching is loads better. Out with John Burkett, in with Curt Schilling. Out with Fossum and Suppan, in with Kim and Arroyo. Derek Lowe, who loses effectiveness when his confidence is shaken, should be much better with Pokey’s incredible range behind him. Pedro will be Pedro, Wakefield will be Wakefield. Then you take innings that were thrown by guys like Brandon Lyon, Chad Fox and Scott Sauerbeck, and give them to Keith Foulke. What’s not to like? This team will win 100 games and the division this year.

Still, it’s asking a lot to beat the Yankees. Vazquez and Brown are better than Pettitte and Clemens. Sheffield is better than Mondesi and Garcia. And, um, Alex Rodriguez is better than Aaron Boone. On the other hand, Miguel Cairo ain’t quite up to the level of Soriano just yet. And there are other potential problems. If Giambi re-injures his knee, they are stuck with Travis Lee or Tony Clark, instead of Nick Johnson. Giambi can DH, but that means Williams or Lofton is out of the lineup. Mussina and Vazquez are rocks at the top of the rotation. Brown was healthy and his usual devastating self last season, and he really shouldn’t be thought of as more of an injury risk than Martinez, other than the fact that he is seven years older. Contreras only has 71 major league innings under his belt. He could be great, but we’re not sure yet. Jon Lieber would ordinarily be a terrific #5 guy, but he hasn’t pitched in a year and a half. Questions abound. The bullpen looks solid, but again is an aging group not without its injury history (Gordon, Karsay, even Rivera). The Yanks fall just short with 97 wins this year.

The Toronto Blue Jays are the unluckiest team in baseball, being stuck in the same division with the Yankees and Red Sox. The Jays have a lot of things going for them, including a GM (JP Ricchardi) and manager (Carlos Tosca – first manager of the Sea Dogs) of whom I think highly. Toronto scored a lot of runs last year, and with Delgado, Hinske, and rising star Vernon Wells returning, they should do more of the same in 2004. By all accounts, this team has a lot of great hitting prospects in the minor leagues, too. The rotation, which was thin behind Cy Young winner Roy Halladay last year, looks improved with Pat Hentgen, Ted Lilly and Miguel Batista in the mix. Neither Hentgen nor Batista are all that young, however (and Hentgen has recent injury history), meaning they could fall apart in a hurry. The bullpen should be decent with Aquilino Lopez and Kerry Ligtenberg.

Tampa Bay will not finish fourth this season, but I think that they have more of a future than the Orioles, so I am picking them in that order anyway. The Devil Rays have some good young talent (Huff, Baldelli, Crawford) that they augmented with some decent role players (Tino, Fick, Cruz Jr.), and I think the offense will be pretty good. With Victor Zambrano as the “ace”, however, the pitching is a bit thin. I think the acquisition of Danys Baez was another good move. The Rays cut ties with some of the usual veteran dregs that they brought to camp (Deivi Cruz, Mike Williams), which is good, while the veteran dregs still on the roster (Tino, etc.) are decent risks for the money. This is a significant departure from previous D-Ray teams, which featured wildly overpriced, unproductive veteran dregs (Greg Vaughn, Albie Lopez, Jose Canseco, etc.).

Which is a nice segue to the Orioles, who got out from under some crappy contracts and immediately signed some more. The Tejada signing was pretty good for the price, but I think he’s been a bit overrated the last couple of years. He plays every day and is a huge upgrade over Deivi Cruz regardless. Javy Lopez, on the other hand, has one (admittedly terrific) “Back from the Dead” season, and suddenly he warrants a 3-year deal? I don’t get that, for a team that’s not that close to contending. Then, because you can never have enough 1B/DH-types, the O’s inked Raffy Palmiero, who can still get it uhhhm, still hit (sorry), but why bother (unless you really want to light a fire under Jack Cust, Marty Cordova and David Segui)? “Why bother” if you’re going to sign BJ Surhoff, too? And especially “why bother” if your pitching rotation starts and ends with Sidney Ponson, who should have another couple of good seasons in him. After Ponson, the cupboard is really bare, the kind of bare where losing Omar Daal is considered a bad thing. I just don’t understand what Orioles GM Beatagan is trying to do here, and I fear that which I don’t understand. So I have to Orioles winning 64 games this year, one behind the Devil Rays.