A look at Mark Bellhorn

Trying out a new font - blogger.com just keeps coming up with new ways to improve the Blogging experience.
 
Maybe I'm obsessed with this guy, but there's been a lot of debate over the merits of Mark Bellhorn at The Big Jab forums.  I think that he's been doing a terrific job, and I believe that his ability to get on base really trumps the fact that he strikes out a lot, and that his defense is a little on the shaky side.  Still, I believe that his range is pretty good, which many others disagree with.  His zone ratings, per ESPN.com, are actually pretty decent for a second baseman, though obviously not as good as Pokey Reese .
 
The biggest argument against Bellhorn is his strikeout rate - you can't have your #2 batter striking out so much.  Putting the ball in play can cause errors, move runners along, etc.  All this is true.  Putting the ball in play can result in double plays, too, and many many balls in play with runners on don't actually move anybody.  I did this purely subjective analysis of strikeouts vs. other kinds of outs:
 
Let's start with the obvious: strikeout vs. popup to the infield. How often does a popup to the infield result in anything more than one out with no runners advancing? I'd say it's far less than 1%, so a strikeout isn't really worse than a popup to the infield.  Next, strikeout vs. shallow fly to the outfield. How often does a shallow fly to the outfield result in anything other than one out with no runners advancing? Well, outfielders don't drop many balls, maybe one in 100 at most. Sometimes you'll get a runner to tag and score on a shallow fly, but I'm not sure that they score when running on a shallow fly any more often than they get thrown out trying, but say they succeed 75% of the time - you're looking at a strikeout being worst than a shallow fly only about 3% of the time. That's not too much. 
 
Strikeout vs. deep fly ball - here you've got more chance to move a runner or two along - but how many deep fly balls actually move runners along - one in 10? Also, you get more errors on deep fly balls, maybe two in 100 vs. one in 100 on shallow flies. So K's are 10% worse than deep fly balls - but deep fly balls are probably going to be the least prominent in the mix.
 
Finally, K vs. ground ball. If nobody is on base, there's no difference, other than a 3 - 5% chance that an error will be committed. Not a lot. If a runner is on base, you might move him up with an out (better than a K), you might force him with an out (no difference), or you might get a double play (worse than a K). What is the probablility of each happening, and how often do you bat with bases empty vs. runners on? I think you get as many DP's as you get runners moved along, but even if not, it can't be more than a 5% disadvantage for a K.
 
So, if you throw it all together, based on frequency of each happening with nobody on or with runners on base, I'm thinking that a strikeout is maybe 3% worse than any other out. Make it 5%, if you prefer "rounder" numbers. So once out of every 20 times a guy strikes out vs. making another kind of out, the team is worse off. That's not a lot.  But it's also worse than people who have looked at this objectively, like Bill James with his "runs created" statistic.  (I used to link to a page that did a great job of explaining RC and the expanded formula, but it seems to have gone missing.  You can email me if you would like to know the formula that I used).  In the RC formula, strikeouts are given a 2% negative adjustment - not much at all. 
 
So for Bellhorn, I decided to look at how many times an "average" batter strikes out, then plugged that number into the RC formula instead of Bellhorn's actual strikeouts. Per the Hardball Times pitching stats, AL batters strike out, on average 6.4 times per 27 outs made. This means that an "average" AL batter would have 57 K's this year over the number of outs that Bellhorn has made, whereas Bellhorn has 96 K's (10.8/27 outs).
 
The results:
Bellhorn (96 K's) has "created" 57.7 runs this season.
Bellhorn (57 K's) would "create" 58.1 runs this season.
 
It is also appropriate to look at the positive impact of Bellhorn's walks. The average AL pitcher allows 3.4 walks/27 outs, whereas Bellhorn earns 6.9 walks/27 outs (more than double!). That would reduce Bellhorn's walks to 30 on the season. I moved those walks to at-bats and increased hits and total bases based on Bellhorn's current BA and SLG rates.
The results:
Bellhorn (61 BB's) has "created" 57.7 runs this season.
Bellhorn (30 BB's) would "create" 50.6 runs this season.
 
So, the walks have been worth 6.1 runs, while the strikeouts have cost 0.4 runs. Net 5.7 runs to the positive. Considering that a 10-run differential is worth about one win, Bellhorn's selectivity will be worth about one win for the season compared to a guy who has the same BA and SLG but with average BB and K rates.
 
The summary, then, for Mark Bellhorn:
.268/.388/.443, 61 BB, 96 K, 57.7 RC, 6.5 RC/27 outs "as is"
.268/.331/.443, 30 BB, 57 K, 51.0 RC, 5.3 RC/27 with "normal" walk and strikeout rates.
 
I'll stick with the "as is" version, thank you very much!