NL Mid Season report

We're at the All Star Break. Let's check in on the pre-season predictions.

NL East
Prediction: Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Expos, Mets
Actual: Phillies, Braves (-1), Marlins (-1.5), Mets (-2), Expos (-15)

Only two games separate the 4th place Mets from the 1st place Phillies. Having allowed more runs than they've scored, the Marlins are actually a bit over their heads right now. I actually think they are more like a .500 team and they will fade out of contention by the end of the season, especially of Beckett misses a lot more time. I expected better from the Phils, and they have scored a lot of runs but the pitching (particularly Millwood and Myers) has disappointed, leaving them with a 46-41 record. The Braves are playing like the .500-ish team that I thought they were, while the Mets have really surprised me offensively. The top 3 in the rotation have been solid, and they seem determined to get help before the trading deadline, so they'll be in the thick of things until September. The Expos have been abysmal, particularly on offense, where nobody is performing like expected. MLB needs to find them a home and stop abusing this franchise.

NL Central
Prediction: Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates
Actual: Cardinals, Cubs (-7), Reds (-7.5), Brewers (-8.5), Astros (-10.5), Pirates
(-14.5)

The Cardinals have really surprised me. Everybody knew that they could hit, but the pitching has been great and the Redbirds have the best record in the NL. Jeff Suppan, Chris Carpenter (?!?) and Jason Marquis have all been much better than expected - but do you want to bet your post season on these guys? The Cubs are on pace for about 88 wins, but they have both Prior and Wood healthy finally, and their worst starting pitcher at the moment is Greg Maddux. They will challenge for the division. Both the Reds and the Brewers have been nice surprises, but the Reds have been outscored by 41 runs and have terrible pitching. With Junior finally injured, this team is ready to fade. I think the Brewers are actually a better team than the Reds are, but still a .500 team unlikely to contend for the wild card. The starting pitching, led by Ben Sheets, has been excellent. The Astros were built for a run this year, and at 10.5 games out, things aren't looking too good. Still, they are only 4.5 games out of the Wild Card slot, and any semblance of health for Andy Pettitte will be good news in the second half. Turning Richard Hidalgo into Carlos Beltran was a nice move for them. The Cubs are for real, and the Cardinals are way ahead, so the Astros definitely have their work cut out for them. The Pirates are fulfilling their destiny of last place.

NL West
Prediction: Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies
Actual: Dodgers, Giants (-0.5), Padres (-2.0), Rockies (-12.5), Diamondbacks (-18.5)

The Dodgers are in first, but I think that it's a war of attrition here. LA has had "good enough" pitching (exception: Hideous Nomo), enough offense from Beltre, Lo Duca and Bradley, and soft competition. I don't like their chances with Ishii, Weaver and Lima in the rotation, but nobody else in the division is any good, either. The Giants are as many games over .500 as Jason Schmidt is. As much as they rely on Barry Bonds, they won't go anywhere if Schmidt breaks down, because the rest of the rotation is "mediocre". Bonds has been all world, some guys (Tucker, Grissom) have fortunately been better than expected, some guys (Durham) have fortunately been about what we expected, and some guys (Snow, Perez) have unfortunately been about what we expected. There is just not enough behind Bonds and Schmidt for this team to seriously compete. That leaves the Padres as still my choice to win this division. With any sort of power from Klesko, Burroughs and/or Payton, the Padres will walk away with this division, because the pitching is there, especially with the return of Jake Peavey. The Rockies are bad, with their usual superficially good batting stats not enough to make up for shoddy pitching. I totally missed the boat on the Diamondbacks. I didn't think that they would be good, but I never thought they would be this bad. They have certainly missed Richie Sexson, but the offense has been there. Still, Randy Johnson and Brandon Webb have combined for a 3.38 ERA - and a 13-16 W/L record. The rest of the rotation has combined for a 6.99 ERA! This team has no chance, and is now in the uncomfortable position of needing to trade it's best player.