AL Mid Season Report

AL East:
Prediction: Boston, New York, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Actual: New York, Boston (-7), Tampa Bay (-13.5), Toronto (-17), Baltimore (-17.5)

Things have really changed since the Q1 update for the AL East. New York got hot, Boston got cold, Tampa got real hot, Toronto stayed bad and Baltimore hit the skids. Right now my bold prediction that the Orioles will finish in last place is looking solid, though Toronto is giving them a run for the money. As stated before the season, the Orioles' problem is pitching, or lack thereof. Daniel Cabrera has come out of nowhere to post a 6-3, 2.90 record at the break, and Rodrigo Lopez has had a nice bounceback, but "Ace" Sidney Ponson is 3-12, 6.29 and he's not been the worst pitcher in the bunch! Toronto's pitching is a little worse than I expected, especially Pat Hentgen and the entire pen, but the offense has struggled behind an ineffective and sometimes injured Carlos Delgado, with nobody else really stepping in. I'm not sure what happened in Tampa Bay. The once anemic bats have shown some life, and the Crawford/Baldelli tandem is an exciting one. The pitching is mediocre, which is a big improvement even from May. Just being average is good enough to cause some excitement in Tampa Bay, though their run differentials indicate a second-half slump. Speaking of slumps, the Red Sox have played indifferent ball for two months now, but with the offense intact were showing signs of life prior to the break. I think they'll still give the Yankees a run for their money, because there just has to be a significant injury in that (New York) lineup before the season is out. In the meantime, they've played awesome ball.

AL Central:
Prediction: Minnesota, Kansas City, Chicago, Cleveland, Detroit
Actual: Chicago, Minnesota (-.5), Detroit (-5.5), Cleveland (-5.5), Kansas City (-15.5)

The White Sox have had an awesome offense this year, and average pitching which is good enough given the runs scored. The offense was so good that it got a White Sox pitcher (Loaiza) onto the all star team. The Sox traded for Freddy Garcia to make a run at the playoffs. It's a definite improvement over the dregs they've had in the #5 slot, but do you want to put your postseason hopes on Freddy Garcia's shoulders? It shouldn't be a problem, though, because the Twins just don't excite me. They have a first baseman with a .364 slugging % (making Kevin Millar look good!), give too many at bats to Guzman and Rivas, and have been riding Lew Ford through the season. Even if Joe Mauer hits like he has since returning, I don't see this team with enough offense to compete. They might not need it if the pitching holds up - Brad Radke's having another good year, and Johan Santana has a 2.01 ERA since June 1st. Detroit and Cleveland both continue to surprise and remain in the hunt, and both have done it with high scoring offenses. Pudge Rodriguez is having a great year, and Carlos Guillen is making me look pretty smart for the Tigers, while Cleveland is led by Travis Hafner, Victor Martinez and Matt Lawton. The Indians have received good pitching from their top 3 (Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee), but the bottom of the rotation and the bullpen have stunk. The Tigers pitching has been more consistently mediocre-to-poor. The Royals have been all poor. The Royals have just been bad. The pitching has been terrible, save for rookie Zack Grienke, who has his bullpen and offense to blame for a 1-6 W/L record. The offense is anemic. Mike Sweeny is having an off year, and with Carlos Beltran now traded and Ken Harvey having taken a good hard look at the name on the back of his jersey, there just isn't any help there. The fire sale is on in KC. Boy, did I miss the boat on them this year!

AL West:
Prediction: Oakland, Anaheim, Seattle, Texas
Actual: Texas, Oakland (-2), Anaheim (-2.5), Seattle (-17).

This division has turned over a lot in the second quarter, too, but Texas, Oakland and Anaheim continue to be tightly bunched. We knew that the Rangers would score runs, and they have not disappointed, but it's the pitching - particularly Rogers and Drese - that has them in first place. The bullpen has held it together for the rest of the rotation, and Francisco Cordero has been lights out at the end of the game. Still, I don't see a team with Kenny Rogers and Ryan Drese as it's two best starters winning this division - it'll be third place by the time they are done. Oakland has the legitimate pitching, and I still believe they'll finish in first place. With the surprising Scott Hatteberg, the resurgent Jermaine Dye and Mark Kotsay, and the return of Eric Chavez, the offense is good enough to win 60% of Oakland's games. The Angels look like a great offensive team, but it's really Vlad, Guillen, Anderson and Jeff Davanon at this point. Kennedy and Eckstein have disappointed in the middle of the infield. Darin Erstad is wasting space with his patented .740 OPS at first base. The Angels pitching has been good despite Bartolo Colon's struggles, and I think that the rotation is good enough, given the bullpen support that they get, to stay in the wild card race with the Red Sox and Twins. As for the Mariners - I didn't think they'd contend, but I didn't dream that they would be this bad. The offense has been abysmal, with only four guys (Randy Wynn, Raul Ibanez, Jolbert Cabrera and Dave Hansen) sporting slugging percentages over .400. Ichiro!, Edgar, Boone, Olerud, Spiezio, Wilson - all under .400. That's just gross. Rich Aurilia (the guy they got rid of Carlos Guillen for) was so bad that the M's simply cut him last week. The pitching has been so-so, though the guy most responsible for positive results was traded to the White Sox. July will be a big selling month in Seattle as they wallow in the basement.