Finally Some Sunshine

After sitting through the rain and cold on Friday night (and the cold a couple of weeks ago), I along with a few thousand other fans, was finally rewarded with some decent weather Saturday afternoon. The Sea Dogs felt good about the weather, taking their second straight from New Hampshire with a 10-5 victory. Cory Keylor was the star of the show this afternoon, going 3-5 with a home run and 5 RBI. Old friend Charlie Zink was equally strong on the rubber, pitching six shutout innings, allowing only five base runners and striking out five.

Portland faced another of New Hampshire's top pitchers, lefty David Purcey. Purcey's prospect shine has dimmed a bit since he first came to New Hampshire a couple of years ago. He's still a good stuff/poor command guy, though he does seem to have a better handle on his curve ball these days. (He also has slimmed down a bit since he first appeared in the league.) Purcey alternated good innings with others where he allowed Portland hitters to string together base runners. His biggest problem was an inability to handle Keylor.

While Zink was impressive, Bryce Cox was not. This was my first look at Cox, who is listed as Boston's #4 prospect. Cox struggled mightily in throwing strikes, and when he did throw them they were hit hard, even for outs. In 1 1/3 innings, Cox walked three, hit a batter, and allowed three hits, including a towering three-run home run over the scoreboard in left-center field by David Smith. Mike James was called upon to get the last five outs of the game.

Notes:

• Jacoby Ellsbury was a bit of a disappointment, getting only one hit (an RBI double) and one walk. Hey, when a guy comes into the game hitting .468, you expect better.
  
• This version of the Sea Dogs is going to bother opposing pitchers. They take a lot of pitches and draw a lot of walks. When aboard, they run the bases aggressively and make things happen with their speed. In addition to Ellsbury, Jeff Corsaletti is a guy who particularly relies on his speed to make things happen. Corsaletti has already shown an ability to lay down a bunt along with avoiding double plays by hustling down the line. It's the variety of small ball that fans find enjoyable.
• Case in point on taking pitches - out of 38 batters for the Sea Dogs in the game, only three swung at the first pitch, and only a handful more swung before taking a strike.
  
• New Hampshire CF Dustin Majewski is another speedy guy who takes a lot of walks. However, he hasn't been too successful in hitting the ball when he doesn't walk. Since arriving in AA in the middle of last season, he has nearly as many walks as hits. You can do that if you're Barry Bonds. If you struggle to hit .230 in AA, pitchers won't let you get away with the walks for long.
  

Dogs Play Despite Rain, Defeat NH

After causing seven of the first ten home games to be postponed (and the other three to be played in wintry temperatures), mother nature finally cooperated and allowed the Portland Sea Dogs to play the first two games of the latest home stand. Well, sort of cooperated. Friday night's game was played in a steady drizzle/rain and a temperature around 40 degrees, but team officials said, emphatically, "we're playing the damn game!"

The Sea Dogs were undeterred, and overcame the rain and a brief failure of a light bank to defeat the New Hampshire Fisher Cats 6-2. Jacoby Ellsbury was the star of the show, reaching base five times on four hits and a hit by pitch, and scoring two runs. Ellsbury's batting average stood at .468 following the game. Portland faced off against New Hampshire's top prospect (#3 in the Toronto system) Rickey Romero. Romero was OK, though it's tough to make much judgment given the conditions. The lefty featured a 90-mph fastball and a sharp curve. Unfortunately for him, the curve ball often failed to travel the requisite 60 feet, 6 inches, and the balls in the dirt beat up catcher Robinzon Diaz and contributed to a lot of activity on the basepaths from Sea Dogs runners. Diaz didn't help matters much by short-hopping every throw to second. Portland runners finished with three steals, one with an additional advance due to a Diaz error, and two bases taken on wild pitches.

Portland pitcher Matt Goodson was equally OK. I was most impressed by his sinker, which resulted in 10 ground ball outs (one DP) vs. 3 fly ball outs. Portland's bullpen received solid efforts from Kyle Jackson and Beau Vaughan, both of whom pitched two shutout innings in relief. New Hampshire's bullpen struggled, particularly in the bottom of the eighth innings. Zack Borowiak started things off with a single that coincided with the failure of the lights behind the first base dugout. Following a 15-minute delay (that felt like a half hour for those of us sitting in the rain), the Dogs took advantage of a loss of command by Cats reliever Jo Matumoto. Matumoto walked #9 batter Bryan Pritz and allowed a bunt single by Ellsbury before walking in two runs. Tracy Thorpe was then hailed from the bullpen, and he immediately issued another bases-loaded pass, giving Portland a four-run cushion for the ninth inning. Vaughn then dispatched the side without incident.

Notes:

• Ellsbury is really impressive, and I don't suspect he'll be in Portland for long. He has tons of speed, and his game is built around it. In addition to his bunt grounder, he had an infield hit in the 6th. He also turns singles into doubles and causes a lot of commotion on the basepaths. He's got some pop in his bat, but I don't think that he'll ever be a big home run hitter. He also covers a lot of ground in center field. He's really a prototype center fielder / leadoff hitter. Ellsbury currently leads Portland in BA, OBP, SLG, runs, RBI, doubles and stolen bases. It's looking like he's too good for this league.
  
• Eric Crozier looked terrible at the plate in striking out four times from the cleanup spot, but he still managed to finagle a walk to knock in Portland's fifth run of the game.
  
• New Hampshire reliever Jean Machi is a dead ringer for Rich Garces and Edgar Martinez, therefore worthy of the nickname El Guapo III.
  

Prospects on the Sea Dogs

Between all the rainouts and away games, there's not been a lot momentum at the Sea Blog. I thought I would fill the void by going back to John Sickels' listing of Boston's top prospects heading into this season, and see who is on the Portland roster.

1) Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, B+. Good bat, good glove. Through yesterday's games, Ellsbury was tearing up the EL to the tune of 455/500/705-0-9 with 9 extra base hits and four steals through 10 games. He could play himself up to Pawtucket before the All Star game.

2) Clay Buchholtz, RHP, B+. "Good combination of stuff and command," which makes him sound a bit like Jonathan Papelbon. He's only made two starts for Portland, with a 3.82 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 10/2 K/BB ratio in 9.2 innings pitched.

10) Bryce Cox, RHP, B-. A reliever, but not a closer. He's another guy that I haven't seen pitch. Cox has been effective thus far. He's appeared in four games without allowing a run over 7 innings pitched.

17) Jed Lowrie, 2B/SS, C+. He's got good on-base skills, but disappointed a bit last season. Through nine games, he's hitting 212/270/364-1-3.

19) Jeff Natale, 2B, C+. Another diminutive (5' 9") middle infielder who is surprisingly good with the bat. Just 147/333/176-0-2 through the first 10 games, but the six walks belie good plate discipline. Last year, Natale hit 304/446/469-17-87 with 103 walks between Greenville and Wilmington. At 24, he's a little on the old side for a prospect, but if he continues to hit he'll have a career.

Others of note: OF Jeff Corsaletti (303/395/364-0-6); LHP Tommy Hottovy (6.00 ERA in 9 IP); RHP Kyle Jackson (9.64 ERA with 7 walks in 3.2 IP);

Dogs First Win, part two

Good seats still available

Above was the scene at Hadlock Field, as a sparse crowd braved the cold temperatures (43 degrees at game time - hah!) to watch the final game of the series between the Sea Dogs and the New Britain Rock Cats. Those few who stayed the full nine witnessed a rather humdrum game won by the Sea Dogs 8-5 for their first victory of the season.

This was a game without a lot of intrigue. Perhaps part of that is because I didn't do my homework to see who on the Rock Cats is a top prospect. Perhaps another part of that is because I am a fan of good pitching, and last night wasn't a good night to be a pitcher. It appeared that the pitchers were struggling to get a feel for their breaking stuff, whereas the wind blowing out made for a small field. The hard throwers could benefit from nerve-jangling inside pitches on a cold night like this, but I didn't see too much of that happening. Neither starting pitcher lasted more than four innings, with Portland starter Andrew Dobies taking to the bench after just three innings and 70 pitches thrown.

In taking a quick look at the New Britain roster, along with John Sickels' list, it appears that there are a couple of decent pitchers on the Rock Cats roster, which makes sense in Minnesota's pitching-rich system. None of these guys (Anthony Swarzak, Brian Deunsing or Jose Mijares) pitched in this game, but one position player (3B David Winfree, #19 on Sickels' list with a "C" grade) started as DH. Winfree had an OK game, with a pair of identical ground ball singles between third and short and a pair of strikeouts on the night.

Portland's top position player prospect was in the lineup of course. Jacoby Ellsbury had a decent game, with two hits (including a double) and an RBI. His double was actually hit pretty softly, while his RBI single was a rocket off the glove of third baseman Gil Velazquez. He's looking good early, and I won't be surprised if he is promoted prior to the All Star game.

Notes:

• According to the message board, Velazquez is in his 7th Eastern League season. That's a lot of time in AA - not really good enough to be promoted, but good enough (and versatile enough) to keep a job.
  
• Portland 3B Andrew Pinckney got a lot of action. Sometimes he looked sloppy, sometimes he looked good. I don't suspect he's as good a fielder as Chad Spann was last year, but he seems to have pretty good range. It's hard to tell based on just one game, of course, and a cold one at that.
  
• New Britain cleanup hitter Matt Allegra didn't put a single ball in play all night, with two walks and three strikeouts. He did manage seven foul balls on the evening.
  
• Tough to tell who Portland's closer is supposed to be. Bryce Cox is the top prospect in the bullpen and Kyle Jackson is another highly-regarded reliever. Mike James collected 25 saves in Wilmington last season. So naturally it was big Beau Vaughan on for the ninth inning last night to pick up his first-ever professional save.
  
• The Red Sox update board, in previewing last night's Fenway debut for Daisuke Matsuzaka, boasted the following as the pitching matchup: Dice-K vs. Ichiro.
  
• Finally, the promotion of the year - a lucky fan will win $25,000 in home repairs if a Portland pitcher throws a perfect game during a regular-season game at Hadlock. I'm surprised that they didn't say, "and it can't be a 7-inning game in a double header, either." That's a pretty safe $25,000.
  

Chilly Win for Sea Dogs

I was finally able to get to my first baseball game of the year, and it was a happy ending to a cold night, as the Sea Dogs prevailed 8-5. Eric Crozier hit his first Sea Dogs home run to give the team the lead in the fifth inning and the bullpen was able to hold on. According to the box score, the game time temperature was 43 degrees, but it got a lot colder than that as the evening progressed. The saving grace was that there was no precipitation or heavy wind. The game was a bit sloppy, but I think that the weather had a lot to do with that.

I'll post a full report this evening when I have more time.

More Snow / 2007 Sea Dogs Roster

It's official, game four of the opening series vs. the Connecticut Defenders was wiped out by Thursday's storm and the stubborn refusal of the temperatures to rise high enough to adequately clear the field - much to the chagrin of Sea Dogs and Defenders fans alike. The Dogs will try again Monday against the New Britain Rock Cats.

Meanwhile, we have yet to cover the 2007 Sea Dogs. 11 players return from last year's championship team, including top prospect Jacoby Ellsbury, who will patrol center field for at least the first part of the season. Ellsbury's return was necessitated by a crowded outfield in Pawtucket, which includes Portland graduates David Murphy and Brandon Moss, as well as a couple of major league veterans being stored in AAA in case of emergency. Also on the roster are top pitching prospects Clay Bucholtz and Bryce Cox, who will anchor the rotation. With returning lefties Andrew Dobies and Tommy Hottovy, Portland looks to have a strong rotation entering the season.

Infielder Jed Lowrie is another good prospect making his Portland debut. Among the surprise returnees are two pitchers who moved up to AAA last season: Chris Smith and knuckleballer Charlie Zink. Both have been here for several years before, but like Ellsbury found themselves caught up in a numbers game. As a knuckleballer, Zink still has time to develop, whereas Smith is being converted to a reliever, a role in which he may be able to throw harder than he can in pacing himself for a 100-pitch outing.

A quick review of the roster leads me to think that this year's team has the chance to be very good once again. This is a testament to the strong development system that the Red Sox have implemented in recent years.

And while there was no baseball in Portland this weekend, the Pawtucket Red Sox have begun their season, with strong contributions from Sea Dogs alums Devern Hansack and Craig Hansen.

The 2007 Monkee

For the third consecutive year, I have performed the overly simplistic calculations that go into my annual Monkee projections for the Boston Red Sox. I am hoping that these projections don’t prove to be overly optimistic for the third consecutive year. Last season’s lineup was plagued by sub-standard contributions from several positions, then finally sunk by the injury that kept slugger Manny Ramirez out of the lineup for the final month of the season. With new players replacing some of the weaker links from last season and a return to form from a few others, the Red Sox are hoping to resume their normal position among the top run scoring teams in the major leagues.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 36)
416 PA 238/325/400 12HR 47 Runs Created 2006
482 PA 267/365/452 17HR 67 RC 2007 Monkee prediction

Varitek was the most consistent batter on the Red Sox from 2003-2005. In 2006, however, it looked like age finally caught up to him. ‘Tek suffered a huge dropoff that may have been due in part to injury, in part to his excess workload associated with the World Baseball Classic, and in part to age. At least one of those factors won’t be in play this year, and hopefully the captain can stay healthy. It’s reasonable to predict that Varitek will bounce back somewhat in 2007, but I think the Monkee is a bit optimistic with this line.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (28)
680 PA 279/381/429 13HR 92RC 2006
395 PA 277/381/425 8HR 53C 2007 Monkee
650 PA 277/381/425 13HR 87 RC 2007 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis had a good year at first base for the Red Sox last year, providing an expected solid OBP with little pop and a good glove. His lack of power keeps me from thinking of Youkilis as an asset in the lineup, but one could certainly do worse. Since last season was his first as a full-time player in the majors, the Monkee is pessimistic on this playing time. Youkilis seems to be a pretty durable guy, so I’ve projected out more playing time. I think Youkilis will likely exceed his predicted line, making up for Varitek’s probable shortfall.

Second Base: Dustin Pedroia (23)
703 PA 285/344/361 5HR 77RC 2006 Mark Loretta
45 PA 191/355/303 1HR 3RC 2007 Pedroia Monkee projection
650 PA 280/360/420 10 HR 85RC Joe;s SeaBlog prediction

The Monkee has very little to work with for Pedroia: 98 sub-par plate appearances. Those who have followed this blog for the last couple of years know that I am very high on Boston’s young second baseman, and I think he’ll have a pretty good year. I’ve put in what I think is a realistic and potentially conservative prediction for him. Regardless, I pretty much guarantee that he will provide more offense than Mark Loretta did last season. My pet peeve over the winter was listening to Red Sox fans wonder why the Sox were going with Pedroia, instead of re-signing Loretta and letting Pedroia have another year in AAA. The great misconception is that Loretta had a good year last season, while Pedroia proved that he wasn’t ready for the big show. On count number one, I say bollocks – Loretta did a good job of putting the ball in play, but his punch-and-judy act was no asset to the lineup. On count number two, I also say bollocks. Pedroia hit for a low average, but he put the ball in play and was not overmatched by major league pitching. Furthermore, he had a terrific season at AAA. There is nothing to be gained by having him return to the minors, and there is no reason to think that he won’t provide more offense (and probably better defense) than Loretta did last season.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (33)
631 PA 284/339/475 20HR 92RC 2006
611 PA 272/335/447 79HR 83RC 2007

Lowell had a nice bounceback last year following a disastrous 2005 season in which he hit only 8 home runs for the Marlins. Lowell had a typical Mike Lowell season last year, but the Monkee thinks he’ll fall back a little bit, and I tend to agree. My other pet peeve over the winter relates to people who suggested that Lowell’s second-half struggles are indicative of a continuation of his downward career spiral. In fact, Lowell’s first- and second-half splits almost exactly matched his career norms. I think Lowell will continue to provide a good glove and decent bat from the 6^th or 7^th spot in the lineup in 2007.

Shortstop: Julio Lugo (31)
429 PA 255/294/397 9HR 45RC 2006 Alex Gonzalez
589 PA 289/346/408 9HR 75RC 2007 Lugo projection

Lugo probably won’t provide the same defense as Gonzalez, but the 50-point improvement in OBP will more than offset any potential downgrade with the glove. Lugo will assume leadoff duties for the Sox, and should provide a fine spark at the top of the order.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
558 PA 321/439/619 35HR 124RC 2006
611 PA 308/411/608 40HR 127RC 2006

Manny was having a tremendous season before a controversial injury basically ended his season in August. He’s a great hitter, and he’ll have another great season with the bat this year, but his erratic behavior is wearing thin among Red Sox fans, this one included. And he has to hit to have value, as he is among the worst fielders in the league. Here’s hoping for 150+ games with a 1,000 OPS and fans again being happy with Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
452 PA 264/312/385 8HR 50RC 2006
538 PA 285/328/430 12HR 71RC 2007

Coco was another in a string of disappointments with the 2006 Red Sox. Crisp had a great first week of the season, then got hurt and was never the same. Ideally, Crisp will provide decent on-base skills and a fair amount of pop. If he stays healthy, expect something on the order of 85 runs created or better.

Right Field: JD Drew (31)
453 PA 268/373/394 8HR 55RC 2006 Trot Nixon
510 PA 289/408/518 20HR 89RC 2007 Drew Projection

The most controversial signing of the off season was the five-year deal that Boston gave to JD Drew. The oft-injured right fielder is seen as a “soft” player, compared to the tough-as-nails Nixon. I care more about production than having a guy run through a wall, and it’s not like Nixon is any stranger to the DL. Nixon has declined terribly in the last couple of years, and his sub-Gonzo slugging percentage was embarrassing. Drew brings terrific on-base skills and good power, and he should fit in nicely behind Ramirez. If he can stay in the lineup for 140 or more games, he’ll be a huge upgrade over Nixon this season.

Outfield: Wily Mo Pena (25)
304 PA 301/349/489 11HR 47 RC 2006
327 PA 275/326/499 17HR 48 RC 2007

If Drew or any of the other outfielders becomes injured, Wily Mo will be called upon to fill in. If everybody stays healthy, I think the plate appearance projection, and probably the rest of the numbers, will turn out to be optimistic. Wily Mo has intriguing potential, particularly in terms of power. Pena seemed to sacrifice some power for improved batting average last season. I think he’ll find more of a power stroke this year, given the opportunity to hit. He’s a nice insurance policy for the lineup.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
686 PA 287/413/636 54 HR 146 RC 2006
691 PA 294/401/618 49 HR 143 RC 2007

Big Papi had his third straight career year, so the Monkee predicts a bit of a decline for the third straight year, albeit a minor one. Nobody will be disappointed if he puts up the numbers shown above. It would be another monster season from the perennial MVP candidate.

Boston’s success this season depends largely on bounce back seasons from Varitek and Crisp, and better production from Drew, Lugo and Pedroia than was attained by their predecessors. The Monkee sees this happening pretty much across the board: Varitek +20 runs created, Pedroia +8, Lugo +30, Crisp +21 and Drew +34 add up to a whopping 103 runs more than last season. The remainder of the lineup – Papi, Manny, Youkilis and Lowell, all seem to me to be pretty consistent, with Lowell being the most vulnerable of the four. Of course, I said the same thing about Varitek last spring, and he fell off the cliff. Still, I think the lineup will be much improved and, combined with an stronger rotation, will lead to a much improved team in 2007. Later this week, I’ll look at the rotation and wrap up my (almost) pre-season predictions.

Snowed Out

Put me in, coach!

Baseball season is starting, and the blogging is supposed to be starting as well. Unfortunately for me, two budgets are occupying much of my time and even more of my energy. I have my usual Monkee Predictions for the Red Sox in the pipeline, and Sea Dogs blogging will start up as soon as the season gets underway.

That has been postponed for a couple of days, however, as an April storm dumped over a foot of snow on Hadlock on what was supposed to be opening day. The field conditions made it impossible to get the game in on Friday, and I'm skeptical about Saturday. I was supposed to go on Thursday, and I'm scheduled for Saturday as well, so I might get to catch the Flag Raising ceremony after all.

Once the season gets going, hopefully I'll get back into the swing of this blog.