Sunday Spectacular

For the third time in about a week, the Sea Dogs rode a grand slam to victory. This time it was David Murphy's slam into the right field Pavilion seats that accounted for all of the scoring in a 4-2 Portland victory over Bowie. Murphy's blast was a rude welcome to Bowie reliever Eric Dubose, who entered the game with two outs in the bottom of ths sixth after starter James Johnson loaded the based with two walks and a hit batsman. The victory completed a weekend sweep and improved Portland's recort to 13-10.


The four runs were plenty for the rejuvinated Chris Smith, who turned in his fourth stellar performance in five starts on the season. Smith allowed just one unearned run over seven innings while walking none and striking out four. Smith did get off to an inauspicious start, hitting both the second and third batters of the game with pitches. The performance lowered Smith's ERA to 1.53 on the season, and he's allowed just 16 hits and is sporting a fine 19/5 K/BB ratio in 29.1 innings pitched. Kevin Frederick allowed Jeff Fiorentino's blast into the Pavilion in the 8th inning, but retired the six other batters he faced to record the save.
Left : Chris Smith Hurls

Scorer's Notes:

• Though there weren't any warnings, the game featured five hit batsmen. Smith hit the aforementioned two batters in the first, whereas Johnson picked off three batters in his 5.2 innings pitched. Shortstop Zach Borowiack was plunked twice.
• The teams did their best to confuse the scorekeepers by matching Bowie's pitcher James Johnson with the newest Sea Dog, left fielder Jay Johnson. Johnson got the best of Johnson, inducing a flyout and a strikeout, before Johnson walked ahead of Murphy's slam in the sixth. Jay Johnson, who was called up when VDB was place on the disabled list, was the hero in his AA debut on Saturday, completing a 3-5 day with a two-run double in the 12th.
• Chad Spann was charged with the error that led to the first Bowie run in the sixth, but he made several fine plays, including a barehanded grab-and-throw on Brooks Badeaux's bunt attempt in the third, and a nice backhanded snag and throw to get Leo Daigle to end the sixth.
• The weather could not have been more perfect for baseball. Temps in the mid 60's, no humidity, a light breeze, not a cloud in the sky. Absolutely perfect! April baseball in Maine can often be cold and miserable, but this made me forget all that. It also inspired me to order up the first Sea Dog Biscuit of the season. This was a day tailor-made for extra innings. Alas, the teams finished up business in a mere 2 hours, 25 minutes.

Glorious Sunday at Hadlock.

Sea Dogs top Bowie

The Sea Dogs defeated the Bowie Baysox 4-3 on a chilly Friday evening at Hadlock. The game, particularly early on, was played at a brisk pace, befitting the cool weather. The pitching matchup featured Bowie's Brian Finch, one of Baltimore's better pitching prospects, against Phil Seibel, who was recently recalled from Greenville.

Brian Finch warms up.

Seibel got the better of the pitching matchup, though it didn't look that way at the outset. Finch is a big guy, but he doesn't throw particularly hard with a fastball tipping out in the upper 90's. He's a sinker/slider guy and induced a fair number of groundball outs. Finch breezed through the first three innings, surrendering a sole walk to VDB before inducing Zach Borowiack to hit into a double play. However, Finch allowed leadoff doubles in each of the next three innings and allowed each runner to score. Seibel survived a difficult second inning in which he allowed a leadoff home run to cleanup batter Leo Daigle, hit a batter and gave up a double to the #8 batter. He struck out #9 batter Gera Alvarez (one of two Alvarezes (Alveri?) in the Bowie lineup) to escape with just one run allowed. After that he settled down, and finished with just one run allowed on two hits while recording seven strikeouts.

Victor Ramos pitched a perfect sixth inning before coughing up the lead in the seventh. Portland regained the lead in the bottom of the inning on Borowiack's run-scoring double before Barry Hertzler shut the Baysox down with two perfect innings of relief.

Scorer's Notes:

• It's Portland's pitching that has them above .500 at the moment. The hitters have been abysmal. Only two batters in last night's lineup (Jeremy West and Luis Jiminez) are currently batting above .250. West's .284 average leads the team, while Jiminez's .843 OPS is far ahead of West's second-best .703.
• Jiminez leads the Sea Dogs with 12 walks on the season. He's a big lefty swinger who more than a little resembles Big Papi at the plate. Despite putting up decent numbers, Boston is Jiminez's sixth organization, though he's still a week shy of his 24th birthday.

Little(?) Papi at the plate

• Especially disappointing for Portland has been the performance of Brandon Moss. Moss was one of Portland's top hitters last season, and was expected to tear up the EL in his second go-round this year. Instead, he's posted a feeble 169/198/337 stat line, though his 14 RBI lead the team, as do his three home runs (tied with Jiminez). On the other hand, he's struck out 20 times, almost 25% of his plate appearances, vs. only two walks.
• Speaking of not hitting, Bowie's Ryan Bautista has struck out 31 times vs. only one walk on the season.
• On the food front, I tried the BBQ Chicken sandwich from the rightfield grill. It was very tasty, served with peppers and onions, and it settled better than the sausages do.

Hansen Promoted

Craig Hansen's stay in Portland proved to be a short one. He was promoted to Pawtucket after allowing just one run in 11 innings for the Sea Dogs. The run that he allowed in his last appearance was the first of his minor league career.

When Hansen was sent to Portland at the start of the season, Red Sox minor league guru Ben Cherington commented that the Sox wanted Hansen to be on a program of pre-scheduled, multi-inning appearances. The team thought that AA was the best place for this program. While this may be the case, it's also clear that AA hitters aren't much of a challenge for the young fireballer. He's better served to try his luck against the more developed batters in the International League. The way Boston's bullpen is looking thus far on the season, it appears the Sox could benefit from having Hansen make the leap sooner rather than later.

As part of the roster shuffle, Charlie Zink returned to Portland. Also, Devern Hansack was transferred to Lowell and Phil Seibel was promoted from Greenville. Seibel, a lefty who appeared in two games for the Red Sox in 2004, is recovering from Tommy John surgery. He made his 2006 Sea Dogs debut with a start Friday night. I'll write more about that in the game recap.

Sea Dogs Return Home

The Sea Dogs are back in town, and so am I, so I actually get to go to a couple of games this weekend. The Sea Dogs return home with a .500 record over their first 20 games. First up are the Bowie Baysox, who are 12-8 and in third place in the EL South. There are a few guys who make John Sickels top 20 Orioles prospects:


#4 Adam Loewen (pictured) is a 22 year old LHP and is given a B rating by Sickels. Thus far Loewen sports a 2-2 record with a 4.35 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and impressive 26 K's vs. 9 BB in just 20.2 IP. The walk rate is a little high, but the guy is missing bats.

#8 James "JJ" Johnson is, like Loewen, a very big young man, standing at 6'5". The righty hurler also rates a B from Sickels. JJ's numbers are better than Loewen's thus far: 3-0, 3.52, 1.30, 24/5 in 23 innings pitched. Better control, and only 1 HR on the season.

#16 Brian Finch is another big righthander, and rates as a "C" prospect. Finch has mixed numbers thus far, 1-2, 2.49, 1.57, 12/10 in 21.2 IP. Actually, the only good number there is his ERA, and that doesn't reflect that he's allowed as many unearned runs as earned runs on the season.

#11 Jeff Fiorentino is a lefthanded hitting outfielder, but he is currently on the DL and we may not see him in Portland. Firoentino has appeared in seven games thus far, and is hitting 231/364/500-2-5 on the young season.

Most of the position players are in their late 20's or early 30's, far too old to be considered "prospects." I don't recognize too many as former major leaguers. OF Tony Alvarez has 64 MLB at bats for the Pirates under his belt

For the pitchers, Eric Dubose certainly has been in the big leagues, he's a TNSTAAPP poster boy, soon to turn 30 years old and stuck in AA. Calvin Maduro is another guy who has quite a few MLB innings, but he hasn't seen Baltimore since 2002. 30 year-old Jason Pearson has 2.2 major league innings under his belt. Regular readers of this blog may recognize Pearson as a soft-tossing lefty who joined the Sea Dogs from the Independent Leagues for a few weeks last summer.

It looks like we're going to get Loewen and Finch at the start of the series, so there will be a good test for the Portland hitters over the weekend.

Sickels on Hanley

Hanley Ramirez, former top prospect for the Red Sox. He's gone from the Red Sox system, but certainly not forgotten by this blog. John Sickels shares his thoughts on Hanley after his fast start with the Marlins.

"Given his age and athleticism, he has a good chance to develop into a truly outstanding player, perhaps something like Edgar Renteria at his age 27/28 peak."

Personally, I think Hanley will be better than Renteria, at least with the bat. Looking at the comments, there are some people who jumped from the Hanley bus last season who are climbing back on.

Curse Strikes Again

Today's topic is a bit dated, because I was away for a few days, but I'd like to point out that the Curse of the SeaBlog appears to be alive and well. The Sea Dogs had a few good pitching performances, including a near no-no by Chris Smith. Then, merely one start following my post singing his praises, Kason Gabbard's alter-ego reared his ugly head in a 7-3 loss to New Britain. Mr. Hyde gave up four walks, five hits, and seven runs in 3.1 innings in taking the loss.

Kason Gabbard takes the mound.

This sort of thing isn't new, unfortunately, for either Gabbard or the Sea Blog. I have to warn guys like Pauley, Hansen, and El Guapo, as they might be next. Warning to any hitter who decides to get hot as well. The curse has taken down a lot of great players during its short existance.

Bunt Double Sparks Sea Dogs

Speedy outfielder Matthew Van Der Bosch's (hereafter referred to as "VDB") leadoff bunt double in the bottom of the 10th inning sparked the Sea Dogs to a 4-3 victory over the Bingamton Mets on a relatively unchilly Friday night at Hadlock. The win levelled the series with the Mets at one game apiece and brought the Sea Dogs back to .500 on the young season. Brandon Moss followed the diminutive VDB's seeing-eye bunt with a deep fly to left that moved the runner to third. Following an intentional walk to Chris Durbin, David Murphy hit a fielder's choice grounder to second base on which the Mets had no chance to turn two or prevent the winning run from scoring.

Murph prepares to hit as VDB takes his lead in the first inning

The Sea Dogs jumped out to a 3-0 lead on Jeremy West's three-run shot over the left-center field wall in the bottom of the first inning, then were baffled by the assortment of off-speed pitches offered by starter Miguel Pinango and three relievers while the Mets scrapped a couple of runs off Portland starter Kason Gabbard before tying the game in the 7th off Jon Searles. Gabbard, whose up and down performance last season led me to name him Dr. Jekyll / Mr. Hyde, was the good doctor for his second straight start to start the season before tiring in the sixth. Gabbard's troubles are usually the result of poor control. He tends to walk too many batters and fall behind in the count, and his stuff isn't overpowering enough for him to easily escape trouble. This wasn't a problem last night, as Gabbard regularly got ahead of hitters and kept the ball down. In 5.1 innings, Gabbard recorded 9 ground ball outs and 5 K's. This early-season sharpness is a good sign for the lefty in his third go-round at AA.

Dr. Jekyll

Scorer's Notes:

• In addition to Pinango, who was getting his sweeping curve over the plate all night, reliever Ryan Cullen kept the Sea Dogs off balance. The 9th inning featured a succession of Dogs batters watching 87 mph fast balls go by in the strike zone, then swinging at curveballs in the dirt.
• In contrast Edgar "Guapo Jr." Martinez brought the heat in striking out four of the five batters he faced. Guapo, whose cap is already nearly white from rosin (he pounds the rosin bag on his head as soon as he reaches the mound) wasn't throwing in the mid-90's like he was at the end of last season, but he did top out at 93 and missed a lot of bats. Martinez now has 11 K's in just 5.2 IP on the young season.
• On second thought, given that at least one of Martinez' offerings was shown to be 46 mph, I'd say that the accuracy of the gun could be called into question.
• This was the first Friday Fireworks game of the season. When the game edged into extra innings, I was having bad memories of the 14-inning April marathon that I had the pleasure of scoring last spring. Like that night, there were a lot of kids on hand who were starting to get wired as the game drew on. They were staying up past their bed time, bored of the game, and eager for the fireworks. It makes for an interesting energy in the ballpark.
• One of the quirks that I love about minor league baseball - the DH batting ninth. That was the case with Bingamton's Kevin Rios last night.
• Another thing about minor league ball: everything is for sale. OK, that's the case in the majors, too. New to Hadlock this year are sponsorships for foul balls and the on-deck circle. Somebody sponsors the frigging on-deck circle!

Three in a Row

The Sea Dogs have captured the first two games of the series with the New Britain Rock Cats (note to Rock Cats management - the Norwich Navigators changed their name, so can you!). On Monday, the Sea Dogs won an ugly contest 12-4, with old friend Charlie Zink collecting the win in relief. Tuesday it was a wild and wooly performance by Craig Hansen, who pitched two eventful, but scoreless, innings to earn his first AA win. Chris Durbin is 6-9 in the series and is now batting .500 on the young season.

Meanwhile, Greg over at the Defenders Blog sent me one more picture over the weekend - Brandon Moss just prior to hitting his big double that spurred the Dogs on to the win.
Moss steels his concentration. Note the empty seats in the front row. Ah, April baseball in New England!

Dogs Fetch First Win

Portland finally won its first game of the year, 4-2 over the Connecticut Defenders on Sunday. This followed losses on Thursday and Friday. Next up is a three game series against New Britain before the home opener Thursday vs. Binghamton.

Thanks to Greg over at the Defender's Blog, who sent me a couple of pictures from the series:


Hansen prepares to hurl, Murphy prepares to hit.

Open House at Hadlock

On Saturday I took a drive down to Portland to visit the Sea Dogs' Open House. This was an opportunity to get the first ballpark hot dog of the year and to check out the new pavilion seats over the bullpen in right field. This was also an opportunity to experiment with capturing digital images with my own camera, and transferring them to the Blog.

When one enters the stadium, the new RF seats are easily noticeable, and perhaps even a bit of an eyesore, just a big block of seats rising toward the sky:

New RF Pavilion. Not an architectural treasure.

However, the perspective is a lot different from the seats. There is a wonderful, expansive view of the field that is unlike any other in the stadium:

View from the Top.

The seating is in the style of Fenway's Monster Seats, with "bar table" frontage that allows a place for the patron to place his or her food and drink. It also appears to be a good surface to keep score on. It's a lot nicer than balancing everything on your lap. The seats are folding chairs, and the tiering is steeper than the traditional seating, which allows for much less obstruction from the patrons in front of you. When the design was orignially announced, management stated that they could have installed more seating in this section, but that they wanted it to be a unique experience. That it appears to be. I believe that this will be a popular setup for the fans and that, along with the fact that this is the only place in the ballpark that one can catch a home run ball, will make the pavilion a popular ticket.

Waiting for the first pitch. I'll have to wait for a few more days!

Dogs drop Opener

The Sea Dogs collected their first loss of the 2006 season about two weeks earlier than last year, when they started 10-0. It was different last night when the Connecticut Defenders won their inagural game, 5-1. The highlights were few for the Sea Dogs. New first baseman/DH Luis Jimenez was the lone offensive star with a home run and a single to lead Portland's three-hit "attack" off Connecticut starter Chris Begg. Craig Hansen was also impressive for the Dogs, with a six up, six down relief outing during which he registered three K's.

Jiminez

My new blogger friend Greg recaps the game at his Defenders Blog. He's more pleased with the results than I am.

Opening Day for the Sea Dogs!

The Sea Dogs open the 2006 season tonight in Norwich, facing the (newly renamed) Connecticut Defenders. Returning starter David Pauley toes the rubber for Portland tonight. Pauley was 9-7 with a 3.81 ERA for the Dogs last season, and I expect good things from this sinker/slider pitcher in 2006. The Sea Dogs have a lot of players returning from the team that made it to the championship series last year, and should be strong once again.




















David Pauley - photo from the Sea Dogs official web site.

Ex-Dogs Shine

The major league season is just a few days old, and already some former Sea Dogs standouts have had some standout performances.

Jonathan Papelbon, who we followed closely in this space last season, collected his first major league save Wednesday night, blowing away the Rangers on 11 pitches and recording two K's in the process. We here at the Sea Blog think that it's too early to assume that Papelbon is now The Closer for the Red Sox (for one thing, there's another guy being groomed for that role), but (as I noted yesterday), he is well suited for late-inning relief.

Papelbon nailed down the win for another Portland alum, Josh Beckett. Of course, the Sea Dogs were affiliated with the Florida Marlins when Beckett came through town for a couple of months in 2001. Beckett's stats for Portland were insanely good - 13 starts, 8-1, 1.82 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and a 102:19 K:BB ratio in 74 innings pitched. And, though he's starting his fifth full major league season, Beckett is only six months older than the rookie Papelbon! After scuffling a bit in the first inning (though not allowing a lot of hard-hit balls), Beckett settled down then really found a groove over his last three innings. He allowed just one run while striking out five in seven innings pitched in his Red Sox debut.

Finally, though he's no longer with the organization, Hanley Ramirez remains near and dear to our hearts. After struggling a bit on opening day, Hanley was 4-5 with a double and three RBI in Florida's 11-2 win on Tuesday. After hitting a triple last night, he now has a three-game hitting streak and is hitting .462 to start the season. I think Hanley's going to surprise a few people who wrote him off after last season. I've seen him rise to a challenge more than once, and he may do it again this year in Florida.

Red Sox Projections. Part 2 - the Pitchers

I guess I have the benefit of some hindsight in reviewing the Red Sox pitching staff after seeing a couple of games.

See The Hardball Times for discussion of FIP (“Fielding Independent Pitching” – it adjusts for how often balls in play become hits vs. the league average) and PR (“Pitching Runs” – another way of comparing pitchers performance against the league averages).

THE ROTATION:

Curt Schilling
32 G, 11 GS, 93.3 IP, 8-8, 9 Sv 5.69 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -10 PR 2005

Schilling was hampered by his ankle injury last year and was never the guy we’ve become used to over the years, though his FIP indicates that he didn’t get any help from his defense. It was a lost season for the ace, but he appears to have had a healthy spring and he was dominant on opening day against the Rangers. If he approaches the Schilling of old, expect him to be at +30 PR or so, or an improvement of about four wins.

Josh Beckett
29 GS, 178.7 IP, 15-8, 3.37, 3.25 FIP, 17 PR 2005 Florida
Bronson Arroyo 35 G, 32 GS, 205.3 IP, 14-10 - 4.51 ERA, 4.48 FIP, -7 PR

With Arroyo traded for Wily Mo Pena, Beckett essentially takes his spot in the rotation. There are concerns about Beckett’s shoulder injury, and indeed his 178 IP last season were a career high. However, the 17 PR that he posted in that time would have led the Red Sox. Even if Beckett misses his usual few starts again in 2006 this is a big upgrade, worth 2.5 – 3 wins.

David Wells
30 GS , 184 IP, 15-7, 4.45 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 2 PR 2005

Wells is very consistent. Like Beckett, he has injury concern, and his back or his knees are likely to have him miss a couple of starts. Even at age 43, however, I see no reason to expect anything less than about 30 starts of league-average (or better: the 2005 season was one of the worst of Wells’ career) pitching, just like last year.

Matt Clement
32 GS, 191.0 IP, 13-6, 4.57 ERA, 4.08 FIP, -1 PR 2005

Clement started hot last season, even making the AL All Star, then faded in a second half that featured a line drive off the head in Tampa Bay. Clement’s ERA last season was higher than expected, but his FIP indicates that he actually pitched better than the numbers show. (We see this a lot – Boston’s defense wasn’t too good last year.) Historically Clement has been a good, if underappreciated, pitcher. Like Wells, I’ll venture that Clement will give us more of the same or better in 2006.

Tim Wakefield
33 GS, 225.3 IP, 16-12, 4.15ERA, 4.79 FIP, 6 PR 2005

Wakefield had one of the best seasons of his career last year, and for a time during the mid summer he basically had the entire rotation riding on his back. He’s durable and inconsistent, like all knuckleballers. He’ll pitch a couple hundred innings, but projecting anything other than league average ERA is folly.

Wells, Clement and Wakefield were worth about one win compared to an average pitcher in 2005. That sounds about right to me. There’s upside potential, but given age, injury and other concerns (Clement’s makeup), there is also significant downside risk. If any of these guys ends up not performing up to standards, I would expect Jonathan Papelbon to step in. Papelbon pitched well in limited action after spending the first half of the year in AA and AAA last season, but is slated for bullpen action this year.

In summarizing the rotation, it looks like Schilling and Beckett should be worth about a seven-win improvement over Schilling, Arroyo, Wade Miller, Jeremi Gonzalez and several other spot starters last season.

THE BULLPEN

The bullpen was a disaster last year, no question about it. Mike Timlin, Mike Myers and (late in the season) Papelbon were the only guys who were anything other than terrible. Even Schilling was shaky during his time in the pen. At the start of the season, Timlin, Papelbon and closer Keith Foulke appear to be the keys to the pen.

Foulke: 45.7 IP, 5.91 ERA, 15 Sv, -6 PR
Timlin: 80.3 IP, 2.24 ERA, 13 Sv, 19 PR
Papelbon: 34 IP, 2.65 ERA, 7 PR

Foulke is coming off knee surgery and he certainly looked hittable in his first outing this year. That result can be tempered somewhat by the fact that he has only been throwing off a mound for a few weeks and likely has not built up his arm strength. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to get his fastball back up to the upper-80’s and los-90’s, making his changeup all the more effective. It’s not likely that Foulke will pitch as poorly as he did in 2005. That said, it’s unlikely that Timlin will pitch as well as he did last season, when at times he seemed like the only reliever that manager Terry Francona could trust to get people out. Papelbon is an unknown. He started last season in Portland, and he only has 34 major league innings under his belt coming into this season. That said, he’s a top prospect, a polished guy who throws hard and has good control. When coming out of the bullpen, he can rear back and gun it without having to worry about keeping his stamina up. I would expect a sub-3:00 ERA out of him pitching in relief.

The Rest
Julian Tavarez: 65.7IP, 3.84 ERA, 5 PR 2005 St. Louis
Rudy Seanez: 60.3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 13 PR 2005 San Diego
David Riske: 72.7 IP, 3.47 ERA, 11 PR 2005 Cleveland
Lenny Dinardo: 14.7 IP, 1.84 ERA, 2 PR

This looks like a pretty solid bunch, with some durable guys who don’t give up a lot of runs. That’s pretty much what I said last season, which didn’t work out so well, though this bunch looks a bit better. Riske seems to be the least risky of the bunch. Tavarez is a bit of a loose cannon, but should be effective. Seanez was excellent for the Padres last season, but it’s worth noting that he looked very washed up when he pitched nine games for Sox in 2003. I’m going to tentatively predict that they should be better, overall, than last year’s bullpen.

Summarizing the pitching and the lineup together, the 2006 Red Sox look to be a little better than the 2005 unit that won 95 games. I think that the lineup will put up just as many runs as last year’s league-leaders, and the pitching staff looks to be much improved. Factoring the “plus seven wins” that I figured for Schilling and Beckett, that would put the Red Sox at 102 wins this season. Well, the competition is improved too, so I don’t see a 100-win season happening. I do think that another season with 95 or so wins and another run at the postseason is in the cards.

Open House at Hadlock

Official Website of the Portland Sea Dogs - News

The Portland Sea Dogs will host an open house on Saturday, April 8 from 11:00 am
to 2:00 pm. Fans are invited to come see the new U.S. Cellular Pavilion Seats.
Free food will be provided by Dunkin' Donuts, Binga's Winga's and the Portland
Sea Dogs. Please call the Sea Dogs at 207-874-9300 for more information.

Could be fun!

New RF Pavilion at Hadlock

Sweet!

New Year, New Look

You'll notice the new look to Joe's SeaBlog. It's a new year and time for a fresh start. I think the Blog will be a little more user-friendly to the reader. Also, I believe that this template will allow photos, while the old template did not.

Let me know what you think!

Edgar Martinez Profile

The Press Herald has a nice article about Sea Dogs closer Edgar "Baby Guapo" Martinez in today's paper.

Also of note, the Sox finally cut ties with utilityman Raul Nievez. I didn't start out as a fan of Nievez because he's not much of a hitter, but his versatility certainly came in handy, especially on the occasions when the Sea Dogs found themselves short a player or two on the roster. Nievez also seemed to relate well with the fans, which is always nice to see, too. Alas, there's only so long that a guy can hang around the upper minors if it doesn't look like he's going to be a big leaguer. Nievez, for all of his versatility and heart, doesn't seem to have the talent to be a big leaguer. It's too bad to see good guys go, but that's the way the game is some times.

More MaineToday Coverage

Another 2006 Sea Dogs preview from the Maine Sunday Telegram.

2006 Monkee Predictions

As I did last season, I will here attempt to project the performance of the 2006 Boston Red Sox. (If you look a little below on this page, you will see where I reviewed the results of my first foray into the world of performance projection.) To refresh your memories, I use a rather simplistic projection system that I call the Monkee system, because a) it’s easy enough that a monkey could do it, b) I like that fact that TangoTiger named his “monkey” projection system (Marcel, after the monkey featured in Friends), and c) the Monkees were fun but not to be taken too seriously, like my projection system. Today I will look at the starting lineup. Pitching doesn’t lend itself to this kind of projection like hitting does, so later I will do a more qualitative preview of the staff.

Catcher: Jason Varitek (age 34)
539 PA 281/365/489 22HR 84 Runs Created 2005
534 PA 284/370/491 21HR 84 RC 2006

It doesn’t seem like much of an analysis to predict that a guy will basically have exactly the same stats as he did the year before. However, ‘Tek has been extremely consistent over the last three years. So much so that the Monkee almost exactly nailed his 2005 performance. Catchers in their mid 30’s are known to fall off the cliff, offensively, with little warning. As a result, I would suggest that Varitek is much more likely to fall way short of this projection than he is to exceed it. Saying he won’t get there, however, is like saying the Braves won’t win the NL East. You know it’s going to happen some time, but it’s hard to call it for the upcoming season.

First Base: Kevin Youkilis (27)
519 PA 272/355/399 9HR 63RC 2005 Kevin Millar
126 PA 265/378/409 3HR 16RC 2006 Monkee
550 PA 265/378/409 12HR 69 RC 2006 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Youkilis takes over for Kevin Millar, who was terrible last season. Youkilis’ career rates are superior to those posted by Millar last season, despite a lack of steady playing time over the last two years. Youks is entering his age 27 season, which is generally one of a player’s peak years, so he’s likely to take a step forward. It’s also worth noting that he destroyed AAA pitching last year. I believe he’s ready for a full-time gig in the Show. His defense can’t be worse than Millar’s was, either. I look for a step forward at this position. And if the remaining first base at bats go more to Hee Seop Choi than to JT Snow, all the better from an offensive perspective.

Second Base: Mark Loretta (34)
535 PA 257/338/399 11HR 64RC 2005 Mark Bellhorn / Tony Graffanino
584 PA 311/374/430 9HR 83RC 2006 Loretta projection

Last season, as not predicted in this space, was a disaster for Mark Bellhorn. Tony Graffanino played well for the Sox after being acquired from the Royals, but was well over his career norms, particularly in slugging percentage. The Red Sox basically stole Loretta from the Padres for backup catcher Doug Mirabelli. Loretta has excellent on-base skills and pretty good pop in the form of doubles power. His slugging percentage was way down last year (.347), but it’s hard to know how much to attribute to age, injuries, or pitcher-friendly Petco Park in San Diego. If I were a betting man, I’d say that Loretta won’t have quite the SLG that the Monkee projects, but that his OBP will make him a solid improvement in the lineup.

Third Base: Mike Lowell (32)
590 PA 295/369/430 10HR 82RC 2005 Bill Mueller
589 PA 265/337/447 19HR 80RC 2006 Lowell Projection

Mike Lowell is another guy who had a disastrous 2006 season, but this time he’s coming to the Sox following it, unlike Millar and Bellhorn. The Monkee puts a lot of weight on the most recent season, but also acknowledges the likelihood that a player will regress to his established performance if he has an outlier season. Such a bounceback for Lowell should result in about the same level of production at third base in 2006. Last season Bill Mueller had a typical Bill Mueller season. Lowell’s a different guy. He’ll post a lower batting average and OBP, but hit with more power. Given that he’s coming from pitcher-friendly Pro Player Stadium in Miami, there’s some upside potential in these numbers. I’m going to go with the Monkee and call third base a wash this year.

Shortstop: Alex Gonzalez (29)
692 PA 276/332/385 8HR 80RC 2005 Edgar Renteria
540 PA 250/297/404 14HR 591RC 2006 Gonzalez projection

The Monkee is projecting a 21 run dropoff at the shortstop position, which would be a two-win decline from last season. The good news, however, is that most of that will come in the form of fewer plate appearances. Whereas Renteria spent most of last season in the two hole, Gonzalez will bat ninth, and will certainly be pinch hit for on a regular basis, unlike Edgar. Gonzalez’ power took a major drop last year, so the .404 slugging might be ambitious. On the other hand, Alex should have an OBP over .300 (if not by much). Like Lowell, Gonzalez’ numbers will probably improve simply by the virtue of not playing half of his games in Miami. I think he’s pretty much the same batter as Renteria, and he can’t do any worse than Edgar was with the leather last season, so call it another wash.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez (34)
650 PA 292/388/594 45HR 126RC 2005
660 PA 305/399/599 43HR 133RC 2006

Manny being Manny.

Center Field: Coco Crisp (26)
688 PA 316/366/439 10HR 101RC 2005 Johnny Damon
573 PA 293/391/438 13HR 79RC 2006 Monkee
688 PA 293/391/438 15HR 94RC 2006 Joe’s SeaBlog

There was much hand-wringing about Boston’s failure to re-sign Johnny Damon. Then the Sox traded for Coco Crisp, and all was right with the world again. Crisp is just as good a hitter as Damon right now and, at age 26, is still on the upswing. The Joe’s Sea Blog projection puts Crisp’s playing time at a more reasonable level than the Monkee was projecting. I fully expect Coco to do better than what I’ve shown above, particularly on the slugging line. He gets on base and should get a ton of doubles. The Fenway Faithful will love him before the All Star break.

Right Field: Trot Nixon (32)
470 PA 275/357/446 13HR 65RC 2005
378 PA 290/371/493 14HR 61RC 2006 Monkee
475 PA 290/371/493 17HR 74RC 2005 Joe’s SeaBlog

Here we again make a playing time projection, as the PA’s were diluted by Trot’s 2004 injury problems. Trot always has injury problems, however, so there’s no guarantee he’ll get to his usual 120-130 games played. I also think that the projection is a bit optimistic. The injuries are taking their toll on Nixon’s body. I expect his numbers will be closer to the 2005 actuals than the ’06 projections.

Right Field: Wily Mo Pena (24)
248 PA 257/298/396 6HR 27 RC 2005 Jay Payton / Gabe Kaplar
250 PA 252/306/489 15HR 34 RC 2006 Pena Joe’s SeaBlog projection.

It’s become clear that Nixon needs a platoon/injury partner in right field, and Theo Epstein made a great move in acquiring Wily Mo Pena. Just 24, Wily Mo is on the upswing of his career but has already shown prodigious power. He should hit better than this based on normal career development (as was the case with Crisp), but if most of his PA’s are against lefties, all the better still. Even with somewhat limited plate appearances, Wily Mo will likely provide the biggest area of improvement in the Boston lineup outside of Mark Loretta.

DH: David Ortiz (30)
713 PA 300/397/604 47 HR 146 RC 2005
656 PA 298/387/602 42 HR 131 RC 2006

Another great year for Papi, but probably a decline from last year. One must predict a decline from a career year, and besides, it’s unlikely Papi will make it to the plate 700 times again in 2006. But we’ll take these numbers in a heartbeat.

Boston’s lineup is much changed from last season, with six of the guys above different from the guys I was writing about last year at this time. Still, it looks to be as good on paper as last year’s team. I expect a decline in only two positions this season – one to a somewhat lower place in the stratosphere (DH Ortiz), and one due to a rightful decline in plate appearances (SS Gonzalez). And for Gonzalez’ sake, most of the dropped plate appearances will be taken by better hitters, so this may be a net positive for the lineup. I must acknowledge the distinct possibility that Varitek and Lowell won’t meet the projections that the Monkee has set out for them.

I’m also showing only two positions with improvement, 2B with Mark Loretta and RH RF with Wily Mo Pena. Youkilis (and Choi?) could also be a big step forward, and I think Coco Crisp will be better than the 2006 version of Johnny Damon, but in line with the 2005 version in terms of production. All other positions should be about the same.

The 2005 Red Sox led the American League with 910 runs scored. It’s to the front office’s credit that they were able to completely revamp the lineup but continue to field a team that could reach 900 runs again in 2006.

And a Couple of Suprises

This article details the initial roster for the Sea Dogs, and there are a couple of surprises on it - center fielder David Murphy and relief pitcher Craig Hansen. It was routinely assumed that Murphy would be heading to Pawtucket after he hit over .300 for the second half of the 2005 season, but in reality, his numbers were basically identical to Moss'. Murphy's a little older and a more polished defender, but I guess I'm not totally suprised that he's coming back.

Hansen I was surprised by, at least initially. Hansen is just an injury or two away from Boston, and we all expected he'd be in Pawtucket. According to Ben Cherington, "Craig will be pitching in multiple-inning stints with days off and a side in between....We feel that he will benefit from some time in this structured program, and we feel it will be more productive in Double-A." This much makes sense to me. What it also means, however, is that we won't really get to see him in his ultimate "closer" role. The closer is overrated in baseball, but it is fun to feel the electricity in the crowd when the big guy comes in to shut the door at the end of the game.

It looks like the starting lineup will be basically the same as last year: Moss, Murphy and Chris Durbin in the outfield, backed up by late season callup Matt van der Bosch (aka "VDB"). Jeremy West will return to play first base, and late season callups Chad Spann (3B) and Zach Borowiak (2B) will complete the infield along with former Binghamton Met Chris Bacani. Alberto Concepcion will again be the starting catcher.

Most of the rotation will be returnees as well. Chris Smith and David Pauley are two decent prospects who will start the season in Portland. They will be accompanied by a former top prospect Charlie Zink, the knuckleballer who struggled mightily in his first year and a half of AA, but really pitched strong at the end of the season last year. Also returning is Dr. Jekyll and Mister Hyde, aka Kason Gabbard. Not to be negative, but frankly I'm surprised that Gabbard is back. About all he's shown me over the last couple of years is that he's left handed. Last year, while alternating between being unhittable (Jekyll) and unmissable (Hyde), he posted a pedestrian 4.5 walks per nine innings pitched and just 1.5 strikeouts per walk. Rounding out the rotation is Jose Vaquenado, who put up good numbers at Wilmington last year but, at age 25, is pretty old for the competition that he has been facing.

Along with Hansen, Edgar "El Guapo Jr." Martinez will return to the bullpen, and he will likely be the closer for the Sea Dogs. The rotund righty has only been pitching for a season and a half, but I think he's real impressive. He's got a fastball in the mid-90's and a pretty good changeup. He doesn't seem to walk too many batters, either. He'll be a crowd favorite this season.

Hansen is one of the top prospects in baseball, and Murphy, Moss, Martinez and Pauley are also decent prospects, but none of the top guys who were in A ball last year look to be starting the season in Portland. Instead, CF Jacoby Ellsbury and 2B/SS Jed Lowrie will start the season in Wilmington. We may have to wait until 2007 to see the next generation of top stars to come through town.

Press Herald Coverage - Brandon Moss & Chris Smith

The Portland Press Herald is starting to get into the swing of things, too. Here are a couple of articles about players returning to Portland. Brandon Moss had an OK year last year. It was a bit of a letdown compared to his breakout season in A ball in 2004. However, Moss was just 21 last year, which is young for AA, and he more than held his own while showing some flashes of terrific ability. He'll get more seasoning before he gets promoted, probably later this summer (I would guess).

Chris Smith is another story, coming back to Portland for his third go-round. He was an ace of the staff in 2004 before getting hurt. Last year he was recovering from his arm injury and also from the death of his father and struggled around stints on the DL. This year his arm appears to healed, and he is in a better state emotionally. He's ready to re-energize his career. Based on what he did in 2004, and his resurgance at the end of the season last year, I'm hoping Smith will again turn into a staff ace and move up to Pawtucket before the season is out.

Projecting Wily Mo

Dan Fox at Baseball Prospectus has written an article projecting the likely career ahead of new Red Sox outfielder Wily Mo Pena. Pena is an intriguing player. He has a ton of power, doesn't walk much and he strikes out a lot. The fact that he hits around .250 has a lot of people saying that he won't amount to much. What the don't seem to consider is the fact that Wily Mo is only 24 years old and is starting his fourth major league season. The fact that he's been an above-average hitter over the last couple of seasons is very impressive given his age. I'm not ready to call him a Hall of Famer, but I think he could turn out to be a steal for the Red Sox. For now it looks like he'll be platooning with Trot Nixon in right field.

Fox looks at Wily Mo from a couple of different angles, looking at similarity scores from BP as well as the Bill James method from Baseball-Reference.com. Both of these sysems pick former Toronto star Jesse Barfield as the #1 comp for Wily Mo. The Baseball Prospectus similarity scores also throw out names like Willie Stargell and Kirk Gibson, both of whom were obviously excellent ballplayers. Pena probably can't stand up to the defensive reputation of Barfield, who was gifted with a cannon arm, Jesse was a fearsome hitter for a couple of years in his mid-20's, and the Sox would be very happy with that kind of progress.

Fox also runs some graphs and determines that players with Wily Mo's profile tend to reach their peaks a little early, but they maintain their performance for a long period of time. In wrapping up the article, Fox summarizes:

(G)iven the history of players with similar profiles, it seems Red Sox fans have reason to be optimistic that Pena will enjoy a relatively long career. And although he may not hit the top of his comparable list a la Willie Stargell and instead fall somewhere in the Jessie Barfield range, with adequate playing time and patience, he’ll likely be a productive hitter for at least the next few years.