Red Sox Projections. Part 2 - the Pitchers

I guess I have the benefit of some hindsight in reviewing the Red Sox pitching staff after seeing a couple of games.

See The Hardball Times for discussion of FIP (“Fielding Independent Pitching” – it adjusts for how often balls in play become hits vs. the league average) and PR (“Pitching Runs” – another way of comparing pitchers performance against the league averages).

THE ROTATION:

Curt Schilling
32 G, 11 GS, 93.3 IP, 8-8, 9 Sv 5.69 ERA, 3.67 FIP, -10 PR 2005

Schilling was hampered by his ankle injury last year and was never the guy we’ve become used to over the years, though his FIP indicates that he didn’t get any help from his defense. It was a lost season for the ace, but he appears to have had a healthy spring and he was dominant on opening day against the Rangers. If he approaches the Schilling of old, expect him to be at +30 PR or so, or an improvement of about four wins.

Josh Beckett
29 GS, 178.7 IP, 15-8, 3.37, 3.25 FIP, 17 PR 2005 Florida
Bronson Arroyo 35 G, 32 GS, 205.3 IP, 14-10 - 4.51 ERA, 4.48 FIP, -7 PR

With Arroyo traded for Wily Mo Pena, Beckett essentially takes his spot in the rotation. There are concerns about Beckett’s shoulder injury, and indeed his 178 IP last season were a career high. However, the 17 PR that he posted in that time would have led the Red Sox. Even if Beckett misses his usual few starts again in 2006 this is a big upgrade, worth 2.5 – 3 wins.

David Wells
30 GS , 184 IP, 15-7, 4.45 ERA, 3.87 FIP, 2 PR 2005

Wells is very consistent. Like Beckett, he has injury concern, and his back or his knees are likely to have him miss a couple of starts. Even at age 43, however, I see no reason to expect anything less than about 30 starts of league-average (or better: the 2005 season was one of the worst of Wells’ career) pitching, just like last year.

Matt Clement
32 GS, 191.0 IP, 13-6, 4.57 ERA, 4.08 FIP, -1 PR 2005

Clement started hot last season, even making the AL All Star, then faded in a second half that featured a line drive off the head in Tampa Bay. Clement’s ERA last season was higher than expected, but his FIP indicates that he actually pitched better than the numbers show. (We see this a lot – Boston’s defense wasn’t too good last year.) Historically Clement has been a good, if underappreciated, pitcher. Like Wells, I’ll venture that Clement will give us more of the same or better in 2006.

Tim Wakefield
33 GS, 225.3 IP, 16-12, 4.15ERA, 4.79 FIP, 6 PR 2005

Wakefield had one of the best seasons of his career last year, and for a time during the mid summer he basically had the entire rotation riding on his back. He’s durable and inconsistent, like all knuckleballers. He’ll pitch a couple hundred innings, but projecting anything other than league average ERA is folly.

Wells, Clement and Wakefield were worth about one win compared to an average pitcher in 2005. That sounds about right to me. There’s upside potential, but given age, injury and other concerns (Clement’s makeup), there is also significant downside risk. If any of these guys ends up not performing up to standards, I would expect Jonathan Papelbon to step in. Papelbon pitched well in limited action after spending the first half of the year in AA and AAA last season, but is slated for bullpen action this year.

In summarizing the rotation, it looks like Schilling and Beckett should be worth about a seven-win improvement over Schilling, Arroyo, Wade Miller, Jeremi Gonzalez and several other spot starters last season.

THE BULLPEN

The bullpen was a disaster last year, no question about it. Mike Timlin, Mike Myers and (late in the season) Papelbon were the only guys who were anything other than terrible. Even Schilling was shaky during his time in the pen. At the start of the season, Timlin, Papelbon and closer Keith Foulke appear to be the keys to the pen.

Foulke: 45.7 IP, 5.91 ERA, 15 Sv, -6 PR
Timlin: 80.3 IP, 2.24 ERA, 13 Sv, 19 PR
Papelbon: 34 IP, 2.65 ERA, 7 PR

Foulke is coming off knee surgery and he certainly looked hittable in his first outing this year. That result can be tempered somewhat by the fact that he has only been throwing off a mound for a few weeks and likely has not built up his arm strength. Assuming he is healthy, he should be able to get his fastball back up to the upper-80’s and los-90’s, making his changeup all the more effective. It’s not likely that Foulke will pitch as poorly as he did in 2005. That said, it’s unlikely that Timlin will pitch as well as he did last season, when at times he seemed like the only reliever that manager Terry Francona could trust to get people out. Papelbon is an unknown. He started last season in Portland, and he only has 34 major league innings under his belt coming into this season. That said, he’s a top prospect, a polished guy who throws hard and has good control. When coming out of the bullpen, he can rear back and gun it without having to worry about keeping his stamina up. I would expect a sub-3:00 ERA out of him pitching in relief.

The Rest
Julian Tavarez: 65.7IP, 3.84 ERA, 5 PR 2005 St. Louis
Rudy Seanez: 60.3 IP, 2.83 ERA, 13 PR 2005 San Diego
David Riske: 72.7 IP, 3.47 ERA, 11 PR 2005 Cleveland
Lenny Dinardo: 14.7 IP, 1.84 ERA, 2 PR

This looks like a pretty solid bunch, with some durable guys who don’t give up a lot of runs. That’s pretty much what I said last season, which didn’t work out so well, though this bunch looks a bit better. Riske seems to be the least risky of the bunch. Tavarez is a bit of a loose cannon, but should be effective. Seanez was excellent for the Padres last season, but it’s worth noting that he looked very washed up when he pitched nine games for Sox in 2003. I’m going to tentatively predict that they should be better, overall, than last year’s bullpen.

Summarizing the pitching and the lineup together, the 2006 Red Sox look to be a little better than the 2005 unit that won 95 games. I think that the lineup will put up just as many runs as last year’s league-leaders, and the pitching staff looks to be much improved. Factoring the “plus seven wins” that I figured for Schilling and Beckett, that would put the Red Sox at 102 wins this season. Well, the competition is improved too, so I don’t see a 100-win season happening. I do think that another season with 95 or so wins and another run at the postseason is in the cards.