1996 Top Double-A Prospects

From Minorleagueball.com. Three former Sea Dogs were among the top 10 prospects in the Eastern League - Luis Castillo, Felix Heredia and Todd Dunwoody. Of those three, Castillo has had a very good major league career, Heredia has been around (he's a lefty), but he's been pretty inconsistent, and Dunwoody never really got himself established in the majors. Career stats through 6/30/05:

Castillo: 1,062 G 294/371/357-18-256, 277 SB. Zero power, good on-base skills, good defense.
Heredia: 511 G 28-19, 6 SV, 4.42 ERA, 1.48 WHIP. Journeyman lefty setup, now with his 6th ML team.
Dunwoody: 295 G 233/277/348-11-81. Career peaked in 1998. Hasn't played in bigs since 2002. Current property of the Twins.

There were several other regulars on that team who went on to have major league careers:

Kevin Millar: 866 G, 290/365/482-106-451. Solid major league hitter and noted clubhouse presence.
Dave Berg: 582 G, 269/328/373-21-163. Journeyman utility player, now with Pawtucket.
Mike Redmond: 509 G, 281/345/357-11-143. Backup catcher, can get on base, good defensive rep, simply owns Tom Glavine (1075 career OPS).

Other than Heredia, the pitching staff was a little less successful in the majors:
Tony Saunders: 62 G, 13-24, 4.56 ERA, 1.58 WHIP. All star potential, career derailed with broken arm(s). Currently attempting a comeback with Baltimore.
Will Cunnane: 184 G, 13-12, 3 Sv, 5.26 ERA, 1.61 WHIP. Had a brief moment of glory with the 2003 Braves. Currently property of the Cubs (I think).
Marc Valdes: 144 G, 12-15, 4 Sv, 4.95 ERA, 1.59 WHIP. Recently resurfaced with the Trenton Thunder.

There were a few guys who appeared briefly with the 1996 Sea Dogs who also went on to have significant careers: Livan Hernandez, Alex Gonzalez and Brian Meadows. And as good as the 1996 team was, the 1997 team might have been even better, with Millar holding over to be joined by Gonzalez (full time), Mark Kotsay and Randy Winn, along with famous flameout Josh Booty. The pitching staff featured Meadows for the full year, and AAAA guys like Hector Mercado, Mike Duvall and Bryan Ward.

Beating the Odds

Two jinxes were averted at Hadlock Field last night:

1) Despite the severe thunderstorms that rolled through Portland in the afternoon, no rain fell during the ball game
2) Despite me being in attendance, the Sea Dogs pulled out a 12-inning, 9-8 win over the Altoona Curve.

Obviously, co-scorer Nick has a positive influence on the team, though we do seem to get a lot of extra-inning games when we are paired. The game started 1/2 an hour late and lasted about four hours, so I didn't actually arrive home until midnight. I'm paying the dues for BIS and you, the loyal SeaBlog reader!

Chris Durbin batted cleanup and was the offensive hero on the night, going 4-6 with two home runs (including the game-tying shot in the bottom of the 9th), a double and five RBI. He's obviously out of his slump now and is again second on the team (behind Jared Sandberg) with 41 RBI. It was a rough night for the pitching on both sides, but the Sea Dogs bullpen held on over the last four innings and gave the offense time to pull this one out.

Scorer's Notes:

• Starting pitcher Chris Smith was a little better this time out than last, but still not great. He allowed three runs on 8 hits over five innings and left with a three-run lead. Smith got his fastball into the upper 80's more frequently than last time out, which is a good sign.
• Another good sign was Stefan Bailie (resident whipping boy of late) showing signs of getting out of his awful slump. Bailie hit a monster home run over the left field wall his first time up, then eventually scoring the winning run after starting the 12th with a hard-hit line drive to the gap in right center. Bailie also struck out twice and grounded into a bases-loaded DP to end the 9th, but we'd be happy with baby steps, and he took a couple of big boy steps last night.
• Speaking of hard-hit line drives, the Wicket fielded his position flawlessly and made a couple of nice stops on hard hit balls down the line. Apparently Sandberg is better off when he doesn't have time to think.
• Hanley Ramirez is another guy who's been criticized here lately, and he had a good game, too. Ramirez hit the ball harder than I've seen from him lately, including a line drive that went past the pitcher about as fast as any ball I've ever seen hit. He also made several highlight-reel plays in the field. This is the guy we came to see.
• Matt Peterson pitched for Altoona and provided another disappointing outing, allowing six runs on seven hits and five walks over five innings pitched. His ERA is now a lofty 6.59. Peterson's fastball never reached 90, and his off speed stuff just wasn't effective. He's struggling right now. Josh Sharpless, another prospect who I wrote about, pitched two innings and allowed a run while striking out three. I was expecting more heat from him (low-90's is what we got), but he appears to change speeds and keep the hitters off balance. Leadoff man Rajai Davis had just one hit in six at bats.
• Denney Tomori made his AA debut. He gave up a hit on his very first pitch but was perfect for the rest of his two-inning stint. His sidearm delivery looks tough on righties.
• I was early enough to get a set of 2005 Sea Dogs player cards. Some day soon I'll paw through them and make some comments here.

Roster moves, and more

Hot on the heels of his first win of the season, lefthander Phil Devey was released by the Sea Dogs yesterday. I thought that Devey pitched OK for Portland. His W/L record was only 1-6, but there were a couple of tough-luck losses mixed in there. Over 38 IP, Devey had a 3.79 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, and he struck out a batter per inning. Still, he's 28 years old and an independent league reclamation, so he's not considered a prospect. His roster spot was filled by Denney Tomori, a 37-year-old Japanese League veteran who the Sox signed in the off season. According to his Soxprospects.com page, Tomori is a sidearmer with a 95 MPH fastball. It must be a fairly straight fastball, as his Japanese League stats do not stand out, and his Pawtucket line (34 IP, 5.03 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 27 K/8 BB) isn't any more inspiring than Devey's was. I'm not sure who replace Tomori on the PawSox roster. Tomori wouldn't appear to be any more of a potential future Red Sox pitcher than Devey is, but I guess they feel compelled to keep him around after bringing him over from Japan.

Also, the Sea Dogs lost game one vs. Altoona 10-7 last night. It was a "Bad Kason" night last night. Now that I think of it, as much as I like the Good Kason / Bad Kason thing, I think I'm going to switch it to Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde from now on. So it was Mr. Hyde last night for the Sea Dogs giving up more runs than the offense could cover. Tonight's scheduled starters are the disappointing Chris Smith for Portland vs. the disappointing Matt Peterson for Altoona. I'm scoring the game, so I hope not to be disappointed. And it turns out that Jon Papelbon's start wasn't just pushed back for a couple of days, but that his turn was skipped altogether to get him some additional rest. Papelbon is tentatively scheduled to start on Saturday.

Renteria would move for Ramirez

According to this article from the Boston Globe, Edgar Renteria says that he'd be willing to switch positions in the future to make room for Hanley Ramirez, if asked. Renteria was signed by the Red Sox to a 4-year, $40 million contract in the offseason, leading many to question what are Boston's plans for Ramirez. Edgar and Hanley became friends during spring training, and Renteria thinks very highly of the talented prospect.

The article doesn't mention the potential fly in the ointment in this whole scenario - Dustin Pedroia, who (in my opinion) has passed Ramirez as Boston's top prospect and, being in AAA and all, is now closer to the majors than is Ramirez. (Actually, it's not just me, as Soxprospects.com now has Pedroia on the top of the list.) As I stated previously, I believe that Pedroia will be playing second base in Boston next year. I don't believe that Ramirez will be ready by opening day, but when he arrives Renteria (if he moves) would likely switch to 3B, keeping Pedroia at second base. (That or Hanley moves to 3B or CF - dunno who the Sox will have in those positions next season.) It's only six games, but Pedroia seems to be doing OK thus far - 263/440/474 (2 2B, 1 3B, 4 BB, 0K) - in Pawtucket. He was hit by a pitch Monday, however, and hasn't played since. Can't find any more news about him on the PawSox web site, though.

But this isn't about Pedroia, it's about Hanley Ramirez. For some reason unbeknownst to me, Ramirez is actually hitting quite a bit worse than he did last season (310/360/512 in 2004; 268/328/395 in 2005). The article claims that Ramirez "lacks discipline at the plate", but I don't actually agree with that. He certainly doesn't walk a lot, but he's walking a little more and striking out a little less than last year, and his IsoD of .060 is certainly nothing to be ashamed of. It's pretty much in line with what Renteria has done historically. Ramirez' problem this season is that he's not hitting the ball with as much authority lately. Is this because of his recent back injury? Is he cutting down on his swing to reduce strikeouts (which weren't really a problem to begin with)? Or is he trying to pull the ball more, going away from his natural opposite-field swing? The last one is my theory. (That, or he's been reading his own press clippings about how good he is and he's gotten a little lazy at the plate.) Whatever the reason, Ramirez just isn't making the kind of solid contact over the last month or so that we saw all of last August from him. I suspect it's something that can and will be adjusted for, and he'll start hitting the ball hard again, maybe earning his own promotion to Pawtucket in August.

Altoona Curve Prospects

With a 41-34 record, the Altoona Curve are in a virtual tie with Erie for first in the EL South division. The Curve carry a fair number of prospects, with five of John Sickels' top 20 on their roster.

Tom Gorzelanny (LHP, #4, B) has pitched 61.1 innings over 11 starts this season, with a 3.08 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 56/21 (2.7:1) K/BB ratio. According to Sickels, "Tom Gorzelanny has a good arm for a lefty (90-95 MPH fastball), but is dogged by command problems at times. If he resolves that he could move to B+." His numbers are pretty consistent this season with those he posted in A ball, with his K rate down just a little bit. This is to be expected with the jump in levels, but I'm not sure if it equates to an improvement in command. Never one to give up a lot of home runs,Gorzelanny has allowed just two this season.

Matt Peterson (RHP, #7, B-) has stuggled in 13 starts this season, with a 6.28 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, and 36/37 K/BB ratio. He struggled over seven starts with the Curve last season, but pitched pretty well for Binghamton (Mets, AA) before coming over in the Kris Benson trade. For Binghamton, Peterson posted a very respectable 3.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, numbers which ballooned in Altoona. "Matt Peterson . . . is another guy with a very good arm, but with occasional control problems. I like his long-term potential but he should not be rushed." He's pitching in AA for the third consecutive year (6 starts in Binghamton in 2003), so I don't think he's being rushed, but his numbers are showing serious deterioration, which is a problem.

Rajai Davis (OF, #8, B-) is a classic leadoff hitter. On the season he's batting 295/361/354-2-24 and leading the team with 28 steals (in 33 attempts) and 50 runs scored. He has very little power but he draws some walks and causes trouble on the base paths. According to Sickels, "Rajai Davis has been an excellent leadoff man at the Class A level, but is untried in Double-A and is already 24." Davis had a higher BA and SLG in single A, and didn't strike out as much as he has for the Curve, but he does seem to be handling AA OK and projects to have a few useful seasons in the majors.

Paul Maholm (LHP, #11, C+) has very similar numbers to Gorzelanny on the season: 13 starts, 63.2 IP, 3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 57/21 (2.7:1) K/BB, 4 HR allowed. Whereas Gorzelanny is a power pitcher, "Maholm has to show he can use his finesse game at higher levels." Maholm's peripherals have improved from those he displayed at single A last season, so he seems to be developing. Soft-tossing lefties can be fun to watch (Abe Alvarez, Bill Lee), but they have little room for error and they can sometimes get crushed.

Josh Sharpless (RHP, #20, C) was recently promoted and pitches in relief. Before the season, Sickels reported that "Sharpless is a sleeper with a hot fastball but control problems." It's easy to see where that comment came from; last season in the Sally league, Sharpless struck out 13.2 batters per nine, but also walked 6.7 batters, which seems like too many. Sharpless appears to have improved his control this season, in 27 IP at Lynchburg, he struck out 46 (15 per 9 IP!), with only 11 walks (3.7/9), 7 hits (0.67 WHIP) and a 0.00 ERA (one unearned run allowed). Um, that's pretty good! In 7.1 AA innings, he has a very impressive 10/2 K/BB ratio, allowing seven base runners and two runs scored (2.45 ERA). I hope I get a chance to see him pitch tomorrow night.

In addition to the prospects mentioned, the other top pitchers are starter Mike Connolly (84 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 60/24 K/BB), reliever Brady Borner (45 IP, 1.60 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 44/9 K/BB) and closer Justin Kaye (34 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 38/14 K/BB). Hitting leaders are a couple of good gap-power guys, Jose Bautista (who somehow managed to play for four major league teams last season – I think he was a Rule 5 guy) at 305/382/465-8-47, and Tom Evans (another former big leaguer but, at age 30, not a prospect) at 277/392/518-8-27 in just 52 games. Josh Bonifay is swinging the power stick: 259/328/546-13-39 in just 50 games.

David Ortiz Prospect Review

One of the fun things from the Minor Leage Ball site is the prospect retrospectives of current players. This time it's our own Big Papi. Check out the picture, identifying Ortiz as David Arias. I've never heard it explained why the name changed.

Dogs Salvage a W

Maybe this will help the Sea Dogs turn the corner again. After wasting two terrific starting pitching performances on Friday and Saturday, Portland brought out the bats to win a 10-6 slugfest vs. the Navigators and salvage the final game of the brief road trip to Norwich. Now they return to Portland to face the Altoona Curve for a three game series. Winners of only two of their last 10 games, the Sea Dogs find themselves half a game behind Trenton for first place in the EL North.

Charlie Zink started for the Sea Dogs in place of Jon Papelbon. According to manager Todd Claus (as told to the Portland Press Herald), the team wanted to give Papelbon a little extra rest and allow him to work with minor league pitching instructor Al Nipper. Papelbon looked a bit uncomforable in his last start on Tuesday evening, so hopefully this move nips any problems in the bud.

It's close, but Papelbon is now the second-best (statistically speaking) pitcher on the staff this season

14 GS, 82.1 IP, 5-1, 2.51 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 84 K, 29 BB, 5 HR Jon Lester
13 GS, 81.0 IP, 4-2, 2.67 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 73 K, 22 BB, 9 HR Jon Papelbon

Papelbon has the edge in WHIP and K/BB (3.31 vs. 2.90), as well as innings/start, but Lester has really come on strong over the last couple of months. Papelbon's home run rate is really what's making his ERA higher than Lester's at this point. Neither Lester nor Papelbon has gotten a great deal of support from the offense or the bullpen, as both could easily have 8 or 9 wins at the moment.

Dogs end brutal homestand.

For the 10th time in a row, I attended a game that the home team lost. This time it was a 7-1 loss for the Sea Dogs at the hands of the Trenton Thunder. The Sea Dogs were never in this game. Eric Duncan hit a three run home run in the first inning off Chris Smith and the Thunder were never threatened thereafter. Overall Trenton batters hit four home runs on the night, accounting for all of their runs. Portland finally pushed across a run on a passed ball in the sixth inning. The Sea Dogs finished their homestand with a 1-6 record. Now they are off on a brief road trip to Norwich before they return next week for our first look at the Altoona Curve and a return match against Norwich over the 4th of July weekend.

Scorer's Notes:

• This was my first-ever look at Chris Smith, and it wasn't a pretty one. Smith, who pitched very well for the Sea Dogs in the first half of last season before a shoulder injury sidelined him, has lost arm strength and is relying on a lot of slow stuff. It sometimes works (5 K's in 4 IP), but he's getting hit hard (5.20 ERA). Many pitchers come back from surgery and eventually throw harder than they did before, so there is still hope for Smith, but as of right now he's not a premier pitcher.
• After he was so hot for about a month, Brandon Moss has been painful to watch. Last night was his third 0-4, 4 K night in a week (yep, I saw them all). Moss was overeager at the plate, getting himself behind in the count by swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and not really giving himself a chance to succeed. For the homestand, Moss was 4-28 with 16 strikeouts.
• Stefan Bailie avoided an 0-17 homestand with a cue-shot single that spun past the first baseman in the 7th inning. He's looked worse than Moss at the plate, but sometimes it's a little thing like this that gets a guy going.
• Red Sox owner John Henry was apparently at the game, but I don't think he was in the crowd like Theo was the other night. He can't have enjoyed what he saw, but I'm glad that Boston's management is taking the time to visit Portland.
• Dustin Pedroia was 3-8 with a walk, two doubles and three runs scored in his first two games for Pawtucket.
• In a move unlikely to help the offense, Portland and Pawtucket swapped backup catchers, with Jeff Bailey going South (and up to AAA) and Jim Buckley returning to Portland. Buckley was 6-38 against AAA pitching.

Trenton Thunder Prospects

Usually I do this before a series starts, but I’ve been too busy this week, so here’s the "better late than never" version of the Trenton Thunder Prospect Preview. Here’s how John Sickels rated the Yankees prospects at the beginning of Spring Training, and here’s the review he did a few weeks ago.

The Thunder have four guys on the Top 20 list, including the #1 guy:

Eric Duncan (3B, #1, B+) is the only Yankee prospect that Sickels rates as a "potential star". In the review, Sickes states that Duncan is "overmatched by Double-A competition at this point, though young for the level." At the time, Duncan had posted a 235/324/327 line through 40 games. Now he’s at 239/338/367-8-34 through 72 games. The batting average remains low, but there are clear upticks in his discipline (evidenced by the four walks the other night) and power numbers. He’s only 20, one of the younger players in the EL, so there is certainly room for him to grow. Duncan posted OPS of 828 and 830 at two levels of A ball last year, with 16 HR and 83 RBI in 129 games. The Yankees may have been rushing him a bit to have him start the year in AA, but I think that’s because they are so very desperate to have a prospect in the higher levels of the minors come the July trading deadline. Duncan seems to be acclimating, so I think this move has turned out OK.

Melkey Cabrera (OF, #6, B-) is a scrappy little guy whose numbers have also improved since the review post. He's currently batting 269/312/409-8-40. Cabrera is another 20-year-old, so he's young for the league, too. Last season he had a .779 OPS in low-A (85 games) and .845 OPS in 42 games at high-A. He's got some pop in his bat, but he doesn't draw a lot of walks and he isn't really a speed guy, either. Portland fans seem to like his first name.

Bronson Sardinha (#8, OF/3B, C+) has put up numbers similar to Melkey’s – 259/327/408-6-34 on the season. I guess you can erase the "3B" from above as long as Duncan is on the team, because I don’t believe he’s got the same kind of upside. Sardinha played half a season at AA last year, in which he batted 267/356/387-6-29 in 72 games. He’s showing more power (18 doubles), but the discipline seems to have deteriorated somewhat.

Sardhina and Cabrera are really just middle-of-the-road guys; the fact that they are in the top 10 for prospects is a real indictment of the system.

The only Thunder pitcher on the list is Ramon Ramirez (#19, RHP, C). "Problems with his command", says Sickels. Ramirez started the year in Columbus (AAA), but was demoted after a poor start. His numbers through nine starts in Trenton aren’t all that inspiring: 49.2 IP, 4.35 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 44/21 K/BB. He pitched 18 games for the Thunder last season, with a 4.69 ERA but slightly better WHIP and K/BB rates. Ramirez pitched well in a losing effort against the Sea Dogs last night: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 3 K.

Matt Desalvo (RHP) garnered a "watch out for" in the prospect review, meaning he’s a guy whose stock is rising. Desalvo is a sinker/slider guy who pitched pretty well on Tuesday night. He’s pitched 63.1 innings this season with a 3.27 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, and 70/34 K/BB ratio. His walk rate is pretty high, but all the other numbers look pretty good, and he’s one of the better pitchers on the team. Desalvo pitched very well in Tampa last season (1.43 ERA, 1.04 WHIP) before getting knocked around in a handful of AA starts.

Not among the top prospects because they are both 25-year-olds are the two top hitters in the lineup, OF Kevin Thompson (326/435/543-8-35, 24 SB) has done it all for Trenton, getting on base and hitting for power at the top of the lineup, and adding a bunch of stolen bases to boot. At the opposite end of the spectrum is hulking 1B Shelley Duncan (264/333/518-18-51), who provides the power, leading the league in home runs.

In addition to Desalvo, Charlie Isaacson (52.1 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 58/22 K/BB) and Matt Smith (50 IP, 3.06, 1.38, 52/23), both of whom have spent some time in the bullpen, have been the most effective pitchers. Neither has a great WHIP, but seem to be aided by good strikeout rates. Justin Pope (40.1 IP, 2.68, 1.17, 31/12, 15 SV) is the workhouse closer for the team.

More Pedroia

Here's a post at the Beyond the Boxscore blog, comparing Dustin Pedroia to highly-touted Brewers prospect Richie Weekes. Pedroia comes across very favorably. No further comment from me, just some interesting reading.

Pedroia Promoted to Pawtucket

Star second baseman Dustin Pedroia took another step forward on his fast track to the major leagues, as the Red Sox promoted him to Pawtucket following Tuesday night's game. (So that's what Theo was doing there last night!) While I am very happy for Pedroia - he's got nothing left to prove at AA - I am sad to see him go. He's a special ballplayer, not the kind of guy who wows you as an athletic specimen, but just a great baseball player. Pedroia was moved to second base this year to enable Hanley Ramirez to stay at shortstop, and he fields the position like he's been there all of his life. He has terrific range to his right and left, a good arm, and he turns the double play well. But where Pedroia really shines is with the bat. He hits for average (.324 BA in 66 games), has great discipline (34 walks, .084 IsoD), makes the pitcher throw a lot of pitches, and he has good pop - not just "for a guy his size", but in general (.508 SLG, .184 IsoP, 8 HR). I don't know if Pedroia has what I would call a "high ceiling" because I think he's already a terrific ballplayer. I firmly believe that he's going to be a star at the major league level. He's a lot better player than the oft-compared David Eckstein, and he could probably perform as well as current Sox second baseman Mark Bellhorn does right now. If he doesn't get traded (and I really hope he doesn't), Pedroia will be in Boston by the end of next season and taking his spot at the keystone at the start of 2007.

Pedroia's final AA line: 324/409/508-8-40 39 R, 19 2B, 2 3B, 7/10 SB, 34 BB, 26 K

Pedroia was 1-4 with a double in his AAA debut. Kenny Perez will be the new starting second baseman for the Sea Dogs. Ramirez, by the way, was named to this year's Futures All Star game.

Sox fans are going to love the fact that Pedroia does not strike out (more extra base hits than K's in his career), and they are going to watch the little guy choke up on the bat and swing from the heels. Best of luck, Dustin, we're lucky to have had the chance to see you play every day.

Theo and I watch the Sea Dogs

(Not together, of course.)

I am the freaking kiss of death lately! By my figuring, the team that I root for has lost the last NINE baseball games that I have attended in person (eight for the Sea Dogs, one for the Red Sox). The last time I watched my team collect the W was back on Mother’s Day (May 8), and on that day a) it rained throughout the game and b) I was an eyewitness to an auto accident that sent a guy to the emergency room.

I may have to examine what’s going on inside me. I have some seriously bad karma going on!

At least I wasn’t alone in watching this last one. Over 6,800 people showed up for Curt Schilling bobblehead night (I arrived early but too late to collect one, of course, leaving myself with more than an hour to kill before the game started and with no Schilling head to bobble). Most notable of the attendees was one Theo Epstein, GM of the Red Sox, who was seated just a couple of sections away from me in the box seats behind the plate. He was working throughout the game (on the phone, taking notes, etc.), but seemed to be enjoying himself, too. Except for a lot of what was happening on the field, of course, as the Sea Dogs lost 9-5 in 11 innings. Theo bailed after 10, so he missed Trenton’s winning rally.

Theo may have timed his visit to coincide with top pitching prospect Jon Papelbon. What he saw after the first inning was not vintage Papelbon. (In the first, big Jon struck out the side while surrendering a mammoth home run to Eric Crozier. This was vintage inning). Papelbon fell behind a lot of batters and was allowing solid contact to most batters he faced before being knocked out in the middle of the 5th. For the night Papelbon allowed five runs on 7 hits, walking four and striking out four in 4 1/3 innings pitched in raising his ERA to 2.67. After the game he spoke of some discomfort in his thigh, but he did not blame that for his performance on the evening.

The bullpen pitched well, shutting out the Thunder until the 11th when Phil Devey suffered the loss with a tough-luck four run inning (if a four-run inning can be attributed to "tough luck"), aided by an unlucky bounce on a groundball and a questionable "safe" call at the plate on a throw from Brandon Moss that beat the runner by about ten feet. For his effort, Theo did see a nice game by Dustin Pedroia, who was 1-3 with a walk, HBP, and game-tying two run home run on the night. Still, Trenton left 15 runners on base on the night. It could have been a lot worse as Portland continued it's string of sloppy play.

Scorers Notes:

• Once-and-future top prospect David Murphy also had a nice game with two RBI singles. Murphy's stats are still quite poor (646 OPS), but he's had some timely hits and is now third on the team with 35 RBI.
• Trenton third baseman Eric Duncan, one of the Yankees' top prospects, had a pretty good game. Duncan has struggled some with AA pitching (as could be expected - at 20 years old he's quite young for the Eastern League) with a 708 OPS on the season, but he's got some plate discipline (38 walks, .098 IsoD). This was on display with his four free passes earned on the evening. With 8 homers and a .130 IsoP on the season, he's also got good power potential.
• Chris Durbin, Brandon Moss and Stefan Bailie were a combined 0-14 with one walk (Moss) and 10 strikeouts. This was Moss' second four K game in the last five, Durbin is 0-for the homestand (20 at bats and counting), and Bailie is about as automatic an out as you can be these days (135/194/260 on the season). The guy hit .309 with a .954 OPS in 37 games for Portland last season and now he can barely put the bat on the ball. In five plate appearances last night, he was down in the count 0-2 four times (and 1-2 the other at bat). It's like watching a pitcher at the plate, only he never bunts.
• Trenton has a guy named Shelley on the team - first baseman Shelly Duncan. He's 6'5", 215 lbs, so I'm guessing he doesn't get teased about his name all that much. He cleared the monster with his league-leading 18th home run last night.
• Old friend Marc Valdes returned to the Hadlock mound last night and collected the win in relief. Valdes, who pitched in Japan over the last couple of seasons, is one of the most successful pitchers in Portland Sea Dogs history. He was 14-6 with a 2.59 ERA in two stints with Portland in 1994 and 1996.
• Randy Beam pitched an inning and a third, and wasn't quite what I expected. Slow and slower is his repertoire, with a 68 mph curve and 77 mph change. He's like Jamie Moyer out there. His fastball is mediocre, topping out at about 87, but it looks lightning quick on the rare occasion that he throws it (he really uses the fastball like most pitchers do their offspeed stuff). The Thunder made good contact on him twice, both times on the fast ball. So far he's had success everywhere he's gone, and there's no reason to expect otherwise at AA.

Losing ugly

The game was as ugly as the weather was beautiful as the Sea Dogs lost to the Erie Coincidences 11-4 on Sunday. An afternoon that saw Jon Lester allow just one run and strike out ten ended with three terrible innings of baseball during which the bullpen (10 runs) and defense (five errors) simply imploded. The loss completed a three-game sweep by Erie over the weekend.

For reasons unbeknownst to me, the Sea Dogs posted a lineup which featured their starting catcher (Alberto Concepcion) playing third base and their third-best catcher (Jeff Bailey) behind the plate. To be fair, the second-best catcher (Jim Buckley) is currently working as the backup in Pawtucket. I heard a snippet on the radio before the game reporting that Jared the Wicket was not in the lineup because he was "under the weather", though he did pinch hit in the 8th and play LF in the 9th. I have no idea why Raul Nievez wasn't in the field in Sandberg's place, other than the fact that he's a poor hitter, but he remained on the bench for the entire game. To be fair to Concepcion, he fielded the position as well as Sandberg has this season, though he did make one clumsy error on a ground ball by Byron Gettis in the 8th. That wasn't the worst play of the inning, however. With Gettis on second following a walk to Victor Mendez, Marc Deschenes uncorked a wild pitch on an 0-2 count. Bailey recovered the ball and sailed a throw well over Concepcion's head, allowing Gettis to score. Chris Durbin was obviously not expecting a play in left field in that situation and bobbled the ball while backing up the throw. This bobble allowed Mendez to move to third base, from where he scored Erie's seventh run on Chris Maples' sac fly to Durbin.

Straight out of South Paris Babe Ruth Baseball, that one was. Four more runs in the 9th sealed the game for Erie. Next up, we'll try our luck with the Trenton Thunder.

Scorer's notes:

• Lester was again masterful, keeping the Sea Wolves off balance and missing a lot of bats. He struggled a lot in the fifth inning, issuing a couple of walks and having trouble keeping the ball in the strike zone, but would have escaped unscathed if not for Kenny Perez' throwing error on a bases loaded ground ball. Barring those struggles, Lester may have been able to pitch into the seventh inning. Lester is now fifth in the EL with a 2.63 ERA and tied for fourth with 74 K's on the season.
• Which would have been good, because Manny Delcarmen had a "bad Manny" outing. Two strikeouts, but two walks, a single, and one home run allowed. The home run came in the wrong part of that sequence, resulting in a grand slam (and 5-3 Erie lead) for Don Kelly.
• The heart of Portland's offense was solid, with two hits each by Brandon Moss, Jeremy West and Kenny Perez, and three plus a walk by Dustin Pedroia. Durbin, however, was 0-14 from the leadoff spot in the series.
• Contrast Durbin to Erie's #9 hitters. There was a different one in every game, but they combined for six hits in 11 at bats over the three games.
• Slugger's dad was on hand for Father's Day. Sporting gray hair and walking with a cane, Slugger's dad provided encouragement during the mascot's nightly race around the bases against a seven year old kid, and consolation following Slugger's inevitable loss. Go get 'em next time, Slugger!

So much for the hot bats

In the battle between the hot bats and the hot pitcher, the hot pitcher won. Quite handily, actually. Joel Zumaya shut down the Sea Dogs over six innings and the Erie Sea Wolves cruised to a 9-0 victory Friday night. Zumaya was very impressive, allowing four hits and two walks while striking out 8. Zumaya's fastball regularly tipped the radar into the upper 90's, topping out at 99 mph at one time. I can see where he can get into trouble on occasion, as he didn't get his off speed stuff over for strikes very often, and he worked himself into a pretty high pitch count (95 pitches) for the number of runners allowed by throwing a lot of balls. He's only 20 years old, so there's plenty of time to get his off speed pitches under control, and look out when he does. I think that his ceiling is very high.

Scorer's Notes:

• In perhaps the biggest upset of the night, there was no rain during the game. Showers did, however, begin immediately following the final out.
• Kason Gabbard had a "bad Kason" night on the hill - 4 2/3 IP, 8 hits, 5 BB, 7 runs allowed. The walk to David Espinoza, the game's first batter, got things off on the wrong foot, and Gabbard never really recovered.
• Victor Mendez, Erie's #9 batter, was the hitting star of the night, reaching base three times on a walk and two hits, included a bases-clearing double that chased Gabbard in the 5th.
• Justin Sturge and Charlie Zink pitched perfect relief for Portland until there were two outs in the 9th, when Zink allowed a home run to Kurt Airoso and three straight singles, the last of which resulted in a run when Chris Durbin's throw eluded Jared the Wicket.
• Brandon Moss struggled mightily with Zumaya. Portland's hottest hitter over the last month, Moss failed to put the bat on the ball in striking out three times against Zumaya. He did finally collect a foul ball in the midst of his fourth K of the night, this time at the hands of Mike Bumatay in the 8th.
• Tonight it's off to Fenway to see the Red Sox vs. the Pirates.

Hey, look what I found!

All the Sea Dogs transactions this season! It was right under my nose all the time. In reviewing, we find that Stefan Bailie has been activated from the DL today and Dirimo Chavez (0-5 in his brief stay in Portland) was returned to Wilmington. We are also able to answer the mystery of who Pete Fischer replaced on the roster (David Pahucki (7.31 ERA with Portland) was sent to Wilmington). Now that I've discovered this, perhaps I can sound like Mr. Informed the next time around.

49-20

That was the final score of the six-game series in Harrisburg. Portland finished it off with an 18-4 pounding yesterday, which featured a team-record 7 RBI from Jeff Bailey (two homers, including a grand slam) and a team-record five hits from Kenny Perez. Overall, the Sea Dogs hit five home runs, and hit for the Home Run Cycle as a team. Perez was 20-46 (.435) on the road trip, while Dustin Pedroia went 19-46 (.413).

Here's a nice Press Herald summary of the road trip. The Sea Dogs now lead New Hampshire by 3 1/2 games. They played in hot weather while in Maryland and Erie, but are coming back to more of the rain that kept their bats down for most of May. Let's see which will be the greater force this weekend.

Erie Sea Wolves Prospects

I was wrong in Wednesday's post. Tonight (Friday) will mark the first time that the poorly-named Erie Sea Wolves have been to Portland this year, so I have not done a Prospect Preview for this team. As usual, I am relying on John Sickels to point these guys out to me. Sickels doesn't set an optimistic tone, opening his commentary with, "Oh, boy, what a dismal system." Erie is currently 35-30 and in a virtual tie for second place in the EL South, so let's see what they have going right for them:

Joel Zumaya is a 20 year old fireballing righthander who currently leads the Eastern League with 105 strikeouts. His other numbers on the year are good-not-great: 3.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 42 BB in 75.1 IP. The walk rate is high, but you can live with it given his very high strikeout rate (2.50 K/BB, 12.5K/9IP). Last season Zumaya had a 4.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 108/58 K/BB in 115.2 innings at single-A Lakeland, and struck out 29 (vs. 10 walks) in his first 20 AA innings. Zumaya’s numbers are somewhat better this year after advancing a level, which is an encouraging sign, and at age 20 he may be taking a step forward as a prospect this season. Sickels says "(Kyle) Sleeth and Zumaya are hard throwers, but both have problems with their command and mechanics." Zumaya's performance to date doesn't dispel that opinion, however the signs are positive thus far. (Sleeth, by the way, is on the Erie roster but recently had Tommy John surgery and is out until 2006 sometime).

Humberto Sanchez (#13, C rating) is another fireballing righthander with a bit less upside than Zumaya. He’s a year older and hasn’t quite matched Zumaya’s relatively modest success. Sanchez has made only three starts this season, with a 6.23 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but also with a very impressive 20/4 K/BB ratio in 13 innings. Last year in Lakeland, Sanchez had a 5.21 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, neither of which is very good, but with a decent 115/51 K/BB ratio in 105.1 IP. Like Zumaya, the walk rate is high, but you can live with it when he’s striking out that many batters. The problem comes when you recognize that, as one advances to the higher levels, strikeout rates tend to decrease while walk rates tend to increase. It’s too soon to come to any conclusions, but the very early results this season are at least encouraging in this area.

Sickels: "(Eulogio) De la Cruz (currently with Lakeland) and Sanchez both burn the radar, but both have sketchy track records and are more throwers than pitchers."

Sanchez pitched on Wednesday night, so the Sea Dogs will miss him this time around, but Zumaya is scheduled to go tonight vs. Kason Gabbard. Given the way Portland battered Harrisburg's pitching, he'll need his A game if he hopes to win.

Juan Tejeda (1B, #9, C+) is the only position player on the team. Sickels says "(Chris) Shelton (currently with the Tigers) and Tejeda can hit, but are limited defensively and will have to fight for platoon/DH/1B roles." Tejeda certainly hit well last year for the Sea Wolves: 289/362/516-23-92 in 125 games, but he's struggled this season in repeating the level. Through 50 games, Tejeda has posted a rather disappointing 241/310/364-4-39 stat line. The RBI are good, leading the team, but I think that it's safe to assume that everybody was expecting a bit more from the 23-year-old.

Erie's offense has been led this year by SS Don Kelly, who is batting 351 (2nd in the EL) /421/524-7-38, and RF David Espionoza at 293/393/469-7-32. These two are at the top of the Erie lineup and have been doing an excellent job of setting the table for the team (38 and 42 runs scored, respectively). The team's home run leader is Kurt Airoso (249/345/423-9-37) who led Erie with 34 homers last year. He's got good secondary skills (power, OBP) but, at age 30 and with only 30 at-bats above AA in his career, he's not really a prospect at this point. All three of these players appeared with Erie last year, with Espinoza and Airoso regulars all year long.

In addition to Zumaya, Erie's pitching leaders thus far are Rob Henkel, who pitched for the Sea Dogs in 2002 (53.1 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 38/16 K/BB), and former Tiger Nate Cornejo (68.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 36/10). The Closer is Edwin Almonte, who has appeared with the Mets. Almonte has collected 20 saves in 26.1 IP, with a 3.42 ERA, impressive 0.91 WHIP, and 24/3 K/BB ratio.

Another Sweep

The Sea Dogs are hot, but they might be tired by the time they get back to Portland. For the second consecutive day, the Sea Dogs swept Harrisburg in a doubleheader. The bats were strong again, with Brandon Moss going 5-9 with a homer in each game, and Jared the Wicket homering and driving in four runs. Sandberg now has an impressive 21 RBI in June, and we're only halfway through the month. While his batting average remains low, Sandberg is getting on base a lot and again providing power - his line to date is 259/349/542-15-46. He leads Portland in slugging %, homers and RBI (and strikeouts, too!), and he's second in OPS behind Chris Durbin (that one surprised me a bit). The Sea Dogs currently have 6 players with an OPS of 800 or better (Moss, Sandberg, Durbin, Dustin Pedroia, Jeremy West and Jeff Bailey), and a seventh (Hanley Ramirez) who should be there when all is said and done. Sandberg's only fault at this point is the defense - 17 errors!

Jon Lester won his fourth consecutive start in allowing only two runs over six innings. He's now 5-1, 2.86 ERA on the season. A collection of relievers combined to win the second game. Randall Beam made his AA debut, allowing a run on a walk and a hit in two innings, but striking out four in the process. Beam joins Manny Delcarmen, Mark Deschenes and Phil Devey as relief pitchers who are striking out more than one batter per inning pitched.

After two more games in Harrisburg, the Sea Dogs return home for series' against the Erie Sea Wolves and the Trenton Thunder (Yankees AA affiliate - always a good time!). I highlighted Erie's prospects earlier this year, so I'll do an update on them over the next couple of days. I don't think that I have profiled Trenton's prospects yet, so that'll happen early next week. I'll be scoring games on Friday and Sunday, with a trip to Fenway to see the Sox vs. the Pirates sandwiched in on Saturday. Sounds like I'll be busy, but that means there will be lots of fresh material for the Sea Blog.

Ramirez to the DL

The Sea Dogs placed Hanley Ramirez on the disabled list with a back strain, retroactive to Sunday's game. Ramirez suffered the injury in Saturday's 14 inning loss to Bowie. Relief pitcher Pete Fischer, who snuck onto the roster about a week ago, was also put on the DL. I'm still not certain who Fischer replaced on the roster. Ramirez was in a bit of a slump at the plate, with his numbers having dipped to 274/330/409 over the last couple of weeks. Maybe a little rest and rejuvination will do him good. Fisher hasn't done much for the Sea Dogs, allowing 7 runs in just 4 IP.

The two roster spots were filled by SS Dirimo Chavez and LHP Randy Beam, both promoted from Wilmington. Beam is perhaps the more promising prospect, having been drafted by the Red Sos in 2004 and pitching very impressively: 40 IP, 20 H, 7 BB, 46 K, 0.68 ERA, 0.68 WHIP in 2004. At Wilmington thus far, Beam has pitched 28 innings with a 2.25 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and 28/11 K/BB ratio - still pretty good. Chavez is a singles-hitting middle infielder who has some on-base skills. He batted 271/352/312-1-30 in 136 games between rookie ball and low A in 2004. He hasn't hit much at Wilmington thus far (230/307/350-1-11), but there are good signs - the power has increased a little bit, and he's still drawing walks (.077 IsoD). Chavez was playing a Raul Nievez-type utility role in Wilmington, and I suspect he'll do more of the same in Portland.

The good news is that the Sea Dogs swept a doubleheader from the Senators, with Charlie Zink and Mark Deschenes both pitching well in a 2-0 victory in the nightcap, while the offense shined in a 9-6 victory in the opener. This, coupled with Sunday's 12-5 victory over Bowie, has the Sea Dogs back on track with a three-game winning streak and a two-game lead over New Hampshire in the EL North. The Dogs and the Senators are scheduled for another doubleheader today as they work their way through a six-game series this week.

Also, Portland officially lost two home dates, as two of the four games rained out against Binghamton at the end of May were rescheduled in Binghamton. This is because the Mets only come to Portland one more time this season, and there are rules about playing too many doubleheaders in a row. There just isn't enough time in the schedule to play the games in Portland. This is unfortunate for the Sea Dogs front office, as they have now officially lost four games, and even more gates and concessions, due to the poor weather this year.

A small market, a Littlefield, and a team on the rise

A small market, a Littlefield, and a team on the rise

Here's a Maine Sunday Telegram article about Portland, Maine native Dave Littlefield, who is the General Manager of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Littlefield grew up in Portland and was a catcher for Portland High who was drafted by the Phillies back in 1978. His minor league career petered out quickly, but he has made a very successful career out of evaluating baseball talent.

I've always rooted for Littlefield, as I always do for people from Maine, though I haven't always agreed with his methods. For a team that always seems to be crying poverty (to be fair, they are one of the smallest markets in MLB), they have spent a fair amount of money on aging players like Kenny Lofton and Reggie Sanders when they probably should have been developing their younger players. Still, the team has been competitive, and Littlefield all of a sudden has a lot of good young talent on the team, much of it acquired through trading his expensive veterans (e.g. Jason Bay and Oliver Perez, acquired in the Brian Giles trade).

If things fall correctly, the Pirates look like the kind of team that could suddenly have all of its talent mature at the same time, and they might be making a run at the playoffs in a couple of years. This is the way that the small market teams have to compete, and hopefully the Pirates can translate success on the field into some additional revenues, which will in turn enable them to continue to compete for several more years - the model that the once-moribund Cleveland Indians followed through the latter half of the 1990's. There is more than one way to skin the "how-to-win-in-MLB" cat, and I like to see new teams show us how every once in a while.

I just mailed that one in

Does it show? It's tough to make a quality post when a) you haven't seen the games and b) you don't really have the time to write. Sorry about that. I have a busy weekend coming up, but hopefully we can do a little better than the Reading post by the time next week rolls around!

Sea Dogs Salvage One

The Sea Dogs took the final game from the Reading Phillies to avoid a sweep at the start of the road trip. Dustin Pedroia, who had a great series in Reading, had three hits and two RBI to lead the offense, while Jon Lester had another fine performance (one run in 6 IP) to collect his third consecutive win. Manny Delcarmen continues to improve, as he struck out three with no walks in two scoreless relief innings.

The Phillies held Portland to just one run in each of the first two games. Kason Gabbard and Chris Smith had decent (not great) starts for the Sea Dogs, but (other than Pedroia and Chris Durbin), the offense didn't get much going.

Now the Sea Dogs are off to Bowie to face the Baysox. Portland has yet to beat Bowie in six tries this season. Which means that they are due!

Red Sox Draft Pick

John Sickels pointed out a few sleepers from this year's draft, one of whom is Red Sox 24th-round pick Jason Twomley from UMass. Sickels has this to say about Twomley:

Another senior outfielder with a power bat, Twomley hit .314 with a .467 OBP and
.700 SLG this year for UMass, contributing 16 homers, 34 walks, 31 strikeouts,
and 13 steals in 140 at-bats. His walk rate was high, and he was one of the more
dangerous left-handed hitting outfielders in college ball. His stock suffered
due to his age (23 in September), senior status, questions about how much his
power will translate to wood, and concerns that he's not athletic enough. All
those are good things to be worried about, but he showed enough with the bat
this year to at least qualify as a sleeper on paper.

Gotta like that 1167 OPS. Twomley looks like a real "Moneyball" kind of player - doesn't wow the scouts, but does perform on the field. I also like that he's got some speed (13 steals in 15 chances - also more runs scored than base hits) and played CF for the Minutemen, so he's not simply a slow slugger. I'm not sure where he'll start out - as a 24th-round pick, maybe Lowell or Greenville - but if he's for real, I think he'll be in Portland quickly. As a 23 year-old, he's already older than many members of the Sea Dogs, so he'll have to catch up quickly to have a real shot at the majors.

Of course, a 24th-round pick isn't the guy that they'll be talking about. That honor will go to first round picks Jacoby Ellsbury, a Johnny Damon-type from Oregon State, and Craig Hansen, a hard-throwing reliever from St. John's who fell to Boston because he's a Scott Boras client. Soxprospects.com has the full draft list on their web site.

Brandon Moss

Here's an article in the Portland Press Herald about Brandon Moss. Moss struggled a lot at the start of the season but has turned it on lately, going 28-67 (.418) over the last three weeks in increasing his batting average to .294. Whereas I barely mentioned Moss in my May 16 post about Portland's batting leaders (other to say that Moss wasn't among them), he's up there now. Moss is currently 4th on the team in batting average, 5th in OBP (.372), tied for third in slugging (.500) and third in OPS (.872). Moss' 14 doubles are second on the team, his 7 homers are tied for second, and his 26 RBI are fourth. Moss has 46 K's, which are also second on the team, but his K rate has come down over the last couple of weeks, too. When I saw the game on Sunday I thought that Moss' stance looked more open than it had been, but the article says he hasn't changed his mechanics any. I could easily be mistaken because from the BIS seats, the catcher blocks any good view of lefthanded batters in the batters box.

Jeff Bailey and Alberto Concepcion both seem to be hitting better, and Jared the Wicket has bounced back a little, too - all of which were necessary given that the top 4-5 in the lineup weren't likely to continue the way they hit at the beginning of the season. I'd like to see more from Stefan Bailie (who hit well at this level last season) and David Murphy (who still has much to prove as a professional hitter), and I'm confident that we will, so we can dispense with the 4-1 losses (like last night's game) and see the Dogs bash their way to victory every night.

David Pauley name EL pitcher of the week

Portland's David Pauley was named the Eastern League pitcher of the week after winning both of his starts (against Norwich and New Britain). Pauley allowed just four runs on 11 hits in 14 innings, walking two and striking out three. Pauley's ERA dropped to 3.02, which is third best on the Sea Dogs and 16th in the league.

Other Maine Baseball News

The University of Maine baseball team was in the NCAA Oxford Regional over the weekend, losing an elimination game on Sunday 11-10 to Oklahoma. As the #4 seed, the Black Bears were at a disadvantage, but did manage to knock Southern Miss out on Saturday before succumbing to the Sooners.

I've said this many times (not here, probably), but I miss the days when the NCAA regionals were true regionals. Sure, it's not fair to all of the strong programs down South to limit their ability to go to the College World Series while the lesser programs in the North get an automatic bid. I don't care about that. Now the College World Series is just a heavyweight tournament. Gone are the days when the little underdog squad from Orono can roll into Omaha and play the spoiler role. They did that a lot in the 1980's, and it made for good TV. Now, if your school isn't in the tourney, who cares? (Of course, UMaine is my school, so maybe that's why I cared back then!).

Also, the Maine Sunday Telegram had a couple of articles about Thopsham's Mark Rogers, who is morphing from a thrower to a pitcher for the West Virginia Power of the Sally League. Rogers still has quite a ways to go, but he's young for the league and he throws 100 mph, so I'd say his future is still quite promising.

Sunday Pitcher's Duel

On a beautiful Sunday afternoon at Hadlock Field the stage was set for a classic pitcher's duel as Portland's top hurler, Jon Paplebon, faced off against Felipe Liriano, the top prospect on the New Britain roster. This was a matchup that I'd been looking forward to all weekend, as I love to watch good pitching. The duo didn't disappoint, either, as each of them was pitching a shutout heading into the bottom of the second inning.

Then all hell broke loose. When all was said and done, Papelbon gave up seven runs (4 earned) in six innings pitched. While the Rock Cats did scratch out some infield hits and Papelbon wasn't helped by his defense, it wasn't a vintage performance. New Britain was making solid contact and hitting the ball deep of Papelbon all afternoon, taking advantage of Portland's miscues to pile up the runs. Still it turns out that the Portland ace was in line for a win before Mark Deschesnes came on in the 9th and surrendered four runs on four hits and two walks. Perhaps the worst performances for each of these pitchers this season. For his part, Liriano allowed six runs (five earned) on seven hits in five innings pitched. This was not what we expected. New Britain averted a weekend sweep with a 12-9 victory.

Scorer's notes:

• Liriano has a live arm, throwing his fastball in the 94-95 mph range and topping out at 97. He throws a lot of fastballs and mixes in some sliders. If he had a decent straight change, he'd be real tough.
• Alex Romero, the other prospect that I profiled, didn't really show me much. He got a couple of hits, but his approach is "small ball" without superb speed. The Sea Dogs were running the basepaths aggressively and took three bases on Romero's arm (two at home). I don't think his arm is a poor one, but he's not exactly Dewey out there, either.
• Speaking of running aggressively, Stefan Bailie (not exactly a speed merchant) stole home on a pickoff throw to first base in the secon inning. This is perhaps the least expected steal of home in Sea Dogs history.
• I really need a radio to do this job. My co-scorer Colin and I were scratching our heads on scoring decisions several times during the game, especially when an error magically appeared a couple innings after it happened.
• Dustin Pedroia, who is a good fielder, uncharacteristically made a couple of E's in the game. One was a tough-luck, base stealer kicked the ball out of his glove error (this is the one that showed up later in the game). He did cover for Jared "the Wicket" Sandberg (playing first base, where he can do less harm) and make the catch on the second popup that Sandberg lost in the sun during New Britain's four-run fourth. The first one fell for an infield hit. Sandberg did hit a home run to even out his contributions on the afternoon.
• Hanley Ramirez made a tremendous play on Ben Pattee's ground ball to end the sixth inning. With James Tomlin (4-5 from the ninth spot) on first, Pattee hit a hard grounder that Ramirez made a diving stop on. Ramirez couldn't make the play at second, but threw from his rear end to get the batter out at first. Kudos to Sandberg on a nice scoop on the throw.
• Manny Delcarmen also electrified us with his high-90's stuff. He struck out four and allowed an unearned run in two innings of relief.

New Britain Prospects

Hmmmm . . . . major oversight on my part, or was I just really busy? I never did a New Britain Rock Cats prospect post when they came to town in April, so I guess I'll do it to commemorate their current visit to town. The Rock Cats are currently 20-32 and mired in last place in the EL North. They also don't have a lot of Minnesota's top prospects on the roster. In fact, there are only two guys who make John Sickels' list.

Francisco Liriano LHP - #8 (B rating). Liriano is a 21-year-old lefty, acquired before last season from the Giants in the A.J. Pierzynski trade. Liriano's pitched pretty well this season, with a 3.43 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and nearly 4:1 K:BB ratio (80:21) in 65.2 innings this season. Last season he struck out 49 and walked 17 in 7 starts (39.2 IP), while posting an impressive 3.18 ERa and so-so 1.56 WHIP. As he's pretty young for AA, he looks like he's going to be good. If I'm doing the math correctly, he'll pitch the game that I am going to see on Sunday.

Alex Romero - OF - #9 (B) Another 21 year-old, he's batting 232/306/351-4-17 thus far this season, he's not been one of New Britain's top hitters yet. Last season he hit 292/387/405-6-42 in 105 games at Fort Myers. Just looking at the numbers, he's not a power guy, but he's posted decent OBPs and has pretty good control of the strike zone (better than one BB per strikeout in his minor league career. Usually this kind of player steals a lot of bases, but that's not the case with Romero. He doesn't hit a ton of doubles, which would be an indicator of future power development, but he's still young. If he starts showing some gap power, he will make a useful major league outfielder. I'm looking forward to seeing him play (I only have the one chance this weekend, however) to get a better feel for what he can do.

New Britain's offensive leaders this year are OF Doug Deeds (298/363/445-4-21 in 51 games), 1B Danny Matienzo (290/335/523-9-28) and slugging OF/1B Luis Jimenez (268/343/488-7-18 in just 33 games). On the pitching side, Colby Miller (57.2 IP, 2.50 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 38:15 BB/K) has carried the load with Liriano, while Patrick Neshek (26.2 IP, 2.03 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 36 K, 7 saves) and Jason Miller (all these Millers - could be the Red Sox!) (21 IP, 2.14 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 27 K, 2 Sv) have anchored the bullpen.

Sabermetric All Stars

"Advanced statistical analysis" makes more inroads to the mainstream. Jacob Luft of Sports Illustrated filled out his All Star ballot using several sabermetric stats: Runs Created, Win Shares, VORP and Equivalent Average. These are stats utilized by a couple of the Sea Blog's favorite baseball sites: The Hardball Times and Baseball Prospectus.

The Red Sox fared pretty well in the voting: Johnny Damon, David Ortiz and (I believe) Jason Varitek received the top spots for their positions (for some reason, the Catcher listing isn't shown), while Trot Nixon and Manny Ramirez would make the team as backups.

I make no secret about favoring the use of statistical analysis in evaluating player performance. That said, I don't really favor going by the stats to choose all stars. An All Star, in my opinion, is a Star - somebody who has established a level of excellent play over the years. So while Kevin Mench may be having a terrific season, I would never vote for him over Manny for the All Star game (well, not this year anyway). I'm not interested in seeing the guy who is having a good half season, I'm interested in seeing the guy who is having a great career. Let the manager pick Kevin Mench as a backup - those guys should be the ones having the great seasons, whether or not they are stars. But the starters should be the true stars.

Last year I heard a lot of people saying, "how can Jack Wilson not be leading the NL voting at shortstop? He's having a great year!" My answer was, "easy - Jack Wilson isn't a star. He's having a great few months (indeed 332/354/501-8-35 at the break), but by the end of the year he'll be back below .300, and in a couple of years nobody will look at his 2004 season and think it was a great injustice that he wasn't voted in." I was almost right - he finished at 308/335/459-11-59, and was the second-best SS in the NL (very slightly behind Philly's Jimmy Rollins) in terms of EQA and VORP. And he was selected as a backup on the squad. A great first half was no reason to vote for him over a Rafael Furcal or an Edgar Renteria. And this year he won't even sniff the All Star game, as his line is an uninspiring, but more typical for him, 234/272/349-2-9.

So, it's fun to run the numbers (it's always fun to run the numbers), but I think you should just go ahead and vote for the players you like to watch.

Among the League Leaders

Sea Dogs players among the Eastern League leaders. Keep in mind that Portland has played 4-8 fewer games than every other team in the league, due to all of the rain, which has kept down some of the counting stats.

Batting Leaders:
Batting Average: West .316 - 6th, Pedroia .314 - 7th, Durbin .306 - 10th, Ramirez .301 - 12th
OBP: Pedroia .391- 8th, West .376 - 11th, Durbin .373 - 13th
SLG: Durbin .532 - 4th, Pedroia .506 - 8th
Runs: Ramirez 32 - 6th
2B: West 15 - 3rd
3B: Ramirez 7 - 1st
HR: Sandberg 9 - 6th, Pedroia 7 - 11th
TB: Pedroia 87 - 10th
SB: Ramirez 14 - 5th

Pitching Leaders:
ERA: Papelbon 2.10 - 2nd
Losses: Devey 5 - 7th
HR: Papelbon 7 - 7th, Pauley 6 - 13th
BB: Gabbard 24 - 11th
K: Lester 53 - 7th, Papelbon 48 - 15th

Unfortunately, some of the other stats that I like to use (OPS, WHIP, K/9, K/BB - all of which the Sea Dogs should do well on) aren't listed on the Minor League Baseball website. I could provide them, but that would require a spreadsheet and some data manipulation on my part, which I don't have the time for right now.

Thanks for your support.

So we go into June with just over 800 hits to this blog, 200+ in May alone. I'm hoping to get to 1,000 hits by July 1, and I think that we'll get there. I got a big boost when Jim Baumer linked me from his blog, and I also get some hits when I post to the forums at minorleagueball.com. I've gotten a few from my autosig on my Yahoo e-mail and a recent posting at The Big Jab. And I get quite a lot of hits from search engines, particularly from people looking for information on minor league players that I have written about. Some of you are even coming back to read more, which is very gratifying. I may no longer to be able to identify my entire audience by name (Dave, Jim and Chris)! So thanks for reading, feel free to comment or send me an e-mail (not sure if the above link is going to work), and let me know what I can do to make your experience here more enjoyable.

Sea Dogs Pitching

The Sea Dogs lost to New Hampshire 4-1 tonight, running into a hot pitcher who was making his AA debut. Zach Jackson, a 2004 college grad who was just called up from Dunedin, gave up just one run in 8 innings for the win. The lefty, who John Sickels rates the #6 prospect in the Blue Jays system, had gone 8-1, 2.88 with a 1.04 WHIP and 48/6 K/BB ratio in 59.1 innings - numbers that were certainly deserving of a call up. Kason Gabbard, fresh off some doubts from the Sea Blog, pitched pretty well, giving up three runs on nine hits, with 6 k's in six innings pitched.

This came on the heels of Tuesday's 3-1 victory. It was a 12 inning game, so he didn't figure into the decision, but Jon Papelbon gave up just one run on one hit (a home run, naturally) in 8 innings pitched. Papelbon has now made nine starts on the year and thrown 55.2 IP with a 2.10 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 IP and 3.2 K/BB ratio. His only "bad" stat is the 7 home runs that he's allowed. If he keeps it up (and stays in Portland for the season), he's got an excellent chance to make his mark on the Sea Dogs record book, particularly in the ERA department, where the team record is 2.62 (Michael Tejera, 1999).

Jon Lester has nearly matched Papelbon's performance; 52.1 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.1 K/9, 2.9 K/BB. Lester began the season struggling a little more with his command and was a little more hittable than Papelbon, but he's really come on recently and I believe that he's got just as much potential as his rotation-mate.

David Pauley (49.2 IP, 3.08 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 2.9 K/BB) is a sinker/slider guy, not as overpowering as Papelbon and Lester, but doing well nonetheless. Scouting reports on him indicated that control could be a problem, but that hasn't been the case thus far this year, as he's only allowed 2.5 walks/9 IP. As stated before, I think Pauley's upside is a #3 or #4 guy in the majors, but that's not a bad thing at all, and he's going to keep the Sea Dogs in the game pretty much every time he toes the rubber.

Kason Gabbard (50.1 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 4.3 K/9, 1.0 K/BB) has been the least successful of the guys currently in the rotation. He's giving up a lot of base runners and not overpowering, only striking out 4.3 per game and issuing the same number of walks as K's. He has flashes of being a very good pitcher, and I think if he can cut down on the walks and miss a few more bats, he'll become a lefty version of Pauley.

Chris Smith (18.2 IP, 1.93 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 6.3 K/9, 4.3 K/BB) recently returned from the DL and proceeded to start posting the kinds of numbers he had in Portland last season before his injury. Smith's a power guy (I expect his K's to go up) with excellent control, and he fits the same mold as Papelbon and Lester.

Charlie Zink (23 IP, 6.65 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, 1.9 K/BB) I discussed here recently. He's a knuckleballer, so he'll be inconsistent. He struggled in AA last season, and didn't fare well in Pawtucket while he was there, and his ERA is high in AA. However, his peripherals are all favorable to Gabbard's thus far (in about half the innings, it should be noted), and I think that there is still promise there. If he returns healthy, I think he'll be an asset to the Sea Dogs.

This really is a formidable AA pitching staff. Three guys have K/BB ratios of 2.9 or higher, which is outstanding. Papelbon, Lester and Smith are all very dominant guys who should rack up the wins when their teammates start swinging the bats more consistantly. Pauley is really the 4th best pitcher on this team, but he's as good as many of the "aces" the Sea Dogs have featured in recent years. He'll gather his share of W's, too. Gabbard and Zink are both less consistent but will have their days when they pitch very well. Like Pauley, these guys are far better than the typical #5 Eastern League starter. The bottom line is that you know that you have a chance to win every night with this rotation, and that's a very good feeling.