Thursday, June 16, 2005

Erie Sea Wolves Prospects

I was wrong in Wednesday's post. Tonight (Friday) will mark the first time that the poorly-named Erie Sea Wolves have been to Portland this year, so I have not done a Prospect Preview for this team. As usual, I am relying on John Sickels to point these guys out to me. Sickels doesn't set an optimistic tone, opening his commentary with, "Oh, boy, what a dismal system." Erie is currently 35-30 and in a virtual tie for second place in the EL South, so let's see what they have going right for them:

Joel Zumaya is a 20 year old fireballing righthander who currently leads the Eastern League with 105 strikeouts. His other numbers on the year are good-not-great: 3.58 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 42 BB in 75.1 IP. The walk rate is high, but you can live with it given his very high strikeout rate (2.50 K/BB, 12.5K/9IP). Last season Zumaya had a 4.36 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 108/58 K/BB in 115.2 innings at single-A Lakeland, and struck out 29 (vs. 10 walks) in his first 20 AA innings. Zumaya’s numbers are somewhat better this year after advancing a level, which is an encouraging sign, and at age 20 he may be taking a step forward as a prospect this season. Sickels says "(Kyle) Sleeth and Zumaya are hard throwers, but both have problems with their command and mechanics." Zumaya's performance to date doesn't dispel that opinion, however the signs are positive thus far. (Sleeth, by the way, is on the Erie roster but recently had Tommy John surgery and is out until 2006 sometime).

Humberto Sanchez (#13, C rating) is another fireballing righthander with a bit less upside than Zumaya. He’s a year older and hasn’t quite matched Zumaya’s relatively modest success. Sanchez has made only three starts this season, with a 6.23 ERA and 1.38 WHIP, but also with a very impressive 20/4 K/BB ratio in 13 innings. Last year in Lakeland, Sanchez had a 5.21 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, neither of which is very good, but with a decent 115/51 K/BB ratio in 105.1 IP. Like Zumaya, the walk rate is high, but you can live with it when he’s striking out that many batters. The problem comes when you recognize that, as one advances to the higher levels, strikeout rates tend to decrease while walk rates tend to increase. It’s too soon to come to any conclusions, but the very early results this season are at least encouraging in this area.

Sickels: "(Eulogio) De la Cruz (currently with Lakeland) and Sanchez both burn the radar, but both have sketchy track records and are more throwers than pitchers."

Sanchez pitched on Wednesday night, so the Sea Dogs will miss him this time around, but Zumaya is scheduled to go tonight vs. Kason Gabbard. Given the way Portland battered Harrisburg's pitching, he'll need his A game if he hopes to win.

Juan Tejeda (1B, #9, C+) is the only position player on the team. Sickels says "(Chris) Shelton (currently with the Tigers) and Tejeda can hit, but are limited defensively and will have to fight for platoon/DH/1B roles." Tejeda certainly hit well last year for the Sea Wolves: 289/362/516-23-92 in 125 games, but he's struggled this season in repeating the level. Through 50 games, Tejeda has posted a rather disappointing 241/310/364-4-39 stat line. The RBI are good, leading the team, but I think that it's safe to assume that everybody was expecting a bit more from the 23-year-old.

Erie's offense has been led this year by SS Don Kelly, who is batting 351 (2nd in the EL) /421/524-7-38, and RF David Espionoza at 293/393/469-7-32. These two are at the top of the Erie lineup and have been doing an excellent job of setting the table for the team (38 and 42 runs scored, respectively). The team's home run leader is Kurt Airoso (249/345/423-9-37) who led Erie with 34 homers last year. He's got good secondary skills (power, OBP) but, at age 30 and with only 30 at-bats above AA in his career, he's not really a prospect at this point. All three of these players appeared with Erie last year, with Espinoza and Airoso regulars all year long.

In addition to Zumaya, Erie's pitching leaders thus far are Rob Henkel, who pitched for the Sea Dogs in 2002 (53.1 IP, 3.88 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 38/16 K/BB), and former Tiger Nate Cornejo (68.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 36/10). The Closer is Edwin Almonte, who has appeared with the Mets. Almonte has collected 20 saves in 26.1 IP, with a 3.42 ERA, impressive 0.91 WHIP, and 24/3 K/BB ratio.

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