Red Sox Preview, Part 2 - the pitchers

I’m going to take a somewhat different tack with the pitching, because other web sites have convinced me that trying to project pitching performance is a losing proposition. Instead, we’ll just do a high-level analytical comparison. People talk about what big losses Pedro and Lowe are going to be, but I think that we’ll see that the guys stepping in can be expected to produce at the same level or better than those two did in 2004. Where appropriate, the line that the Sox got from that spot in the rotation last year is included.

THE ROTATION:

Curt Schilling
32 GS, 226.7 IP, 21-6, 3.26 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 44 RSAA 2004

See The Hardball Times for discussion of FIP (“Fielding Independent Pitching” – it adjusts for how often balls in play become hits vs. the league average) and RSAA (“Runs Saved Above Average” – another way of comparing pitchers performance against the league averages).

Schilling was worth about 4 ½ wins compared to an average pitcher last season, which was a little better than he has done in recent years. You can see in comparing ERA to FIP that Schilling’s performance was about what you’d expect given his BB, K and HR rates. Expect more of the same from Curt this season. He’s still a power pitcher with good control. However, given the fact that he’s going to miss a little time with his ankle injury (cutting down on his IP) and that he’s another year older, I’d look for a drop to about 30 RSAA, or a loss of 1.5 games in the standings this year.

David Wells
31 GS , 195.7 IP, 12-8, 3.73 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 14 RSAA for the 2004 Padres
(Pedro Martinez 33 GS, 217 IP, 16-9, 3.90 ERA, 3.82 FIP, 24 RSAA in 2004)

Here we can see the benefit of the FIP and RSAA stats, which are league adjusted. David Wells is old and has a bad back, but he’s made just as many starts as Martinez did over the last three years. Pedro had an off year last year, but was still about 1 win better than Wells was, despite Boomer’s lower ERA (Petco was a strong pitchers park last year, as we mentioned when discussing Jay Payton). Now, I fully expect Pedro to be a lot better in 2005 than he was last year, but the decline in the Sox’ rotation between 2004 – 2005 shouldn’t be too severe.

Matt Clement
30 GS, 181.0 IP, 9-13, 3.68 ERA, 4.09 FIP, 14 RSAA for the 2004 Cubs
(Derek Lowe 33 GS, 182.7 IP, 14.-12, 5.42 ERA, 4.50 FIP, -33 RSAA in 2004)

Matt Clement had a losing record last year, but he pitched very well. Derek Lowe was huge in the playoffs, but he just plain reeked during the regular season. Lowe is a sinkerball pitcher whose ball doesn’t sink quite like it used to, leading to a bunch of line drives. His walk rate is increasing every year even as the K rate drops. Clement’s walk rate was a little worse than Lowe’s (3.8 BB/9 IP vs. 3.5 for Derek), but the K rate was much better (9.4/9 IP vs. 5.2 for Lowe). According to RSAA, Clement was about 5 wins better than Lowe was last year (+47 in RSAA), and I expect that to be the case again this year.

Tim Wakefield
30 GS, 188.3 IP, 12-10, 4.87ERA, 5.31 FIP, 13 RSAA 2004

Knuckleball pitchers are known to have their ups and downs, and 2004 turned into a down year for Wakefield, as he posted his worst season since 2000. Wakefield doesn’t eat innings like he once did, but if he pitches with some consistency this year, he should stay in the rotation and provide some league-average innings, winning about 14 games. I’d say for the team he’ll be about 1 W better than last year.

Bronson Arroyo
29 GS, 178.7 IP, 10-9, 4.03 ERA, 4.06 FIP, 3 RSAA 2004

Arroyo finally showed some of the promise that has been expected of him for several years during his breakthrough 2004 season. After BK Kim came down with an injury, Arroyo stepped in a pitched very well, exhibiting good control of his curveball and coming through with an impressive 3:1 K/BB ratio. Only 28 this year, Arroyo could still be improving, and I’ll go ahead and predict another 1 W increase from this spot.

If any of the above falter, the wild card to this rotation is Wade Miller
15 GS, 88.7 IP, 7-7, 3.35 ERA, 4.50 FIP, 12 RSAA for the 2004 Astros.

Miller starts the season on the DL with a frayed rotator cuff. Like Pedro Martinez, Miller has chosen to forego surgery and pitch through the injury, focusing on strengthening the shoulder instead. It’s worked OK for Pedro for the last couple of years, and here’s hoping that it works for Miller as well. Miller could be ready sometime in May, and if he’s anything close to the form he showed before the injury, he’ll be a great addition to the rotation. Miller’s walk rate was up a bit last year, but in general he’s a good power pitcher who can rack up the wins with even a modicum of run support.

Looking at these guys collectively, I think that the Sox’ rotation will improve by about five wins compared to last year’s group if they stay reasonably healthy. There is definitely reason for optimism with this group, as well as with the bullpen.

THE BULLPEN

We’ll start with the closer, and the key to the pen

Keith Foulke:
72 G, 82.0 IP, 5-3, 32 SV, 2.18 ERA, 3.35 FIP, 25 RSAA

A lot of people look at Foulke’s 7 blown saves and think he wasn’t all that great last year. However, Keith Foulke did what he always does, threw a lot of innings with an ERA in the low-2.00’s and a WHIP below 1.00. We saw how dominant he can be in the post season. I expect more of the same this year.

The Rest
Mike Timlin: 76.3 IP, 4.13 ERA, 8 RSAA
Alan Embree: 52.3 IP, 4.13 ERA, 2 RSAA
Matt Mantei: 10.7 IP, 11.81 ERA, -9 RSAA 2004 DBacks (Williamson 28.7, 1.26, 10 RSAA)
John Halama 118.7 IP, 4.70 ERA, -2 RSAA 2004 Drays (Mendoza 30.7, 3.52, 5 RSAA)
Mike Myers 42.7 IP, 4.64 ERA, 1 RSAA (includes Seattle)
Blaine Neal 42.0 IP, 4.07 ERA, 2 RSAA 2004 Padres (Leskanic 27.7 IP, 3.58 ERA, 5 RSAA Boston)

So you’re looking at Mantei, Halama and Neal vs. Williamson, Mendoza and Leskanic and thinking “oh no!” Well, maybe yes, maybe no. Halama gives the Sox a good durable long arm out of the pen, and a guy much more suited to the occasional spot start than Mendoza was. Mantei pitched very little because of injuries, but if healthy he is ever bit as capable of dominating like Williamson did, evidenced by his 2.62 ERA in 55 IP in 2003 and career 374 K’s in 296 IP’s coming into this year. Neal is much younger than Leskanic, who (it should be noted) had a 5.19 ERA including his time in KC - so he wasn't without some risk this season. Mike Myers is in for a full season to take some of the LOOGY load off of Embree. Again, if everyone is healthy, this is a more well-rounded pen than last year’s issue, and there should be less chance of Timlin and Embree wearing down toward the end of the season.

So let’s go with no real change in production from the bullpen, which was actually pretty good last season. Overall, then, the pitching staff should be about five wins better than last year. The defense will be about the same, maybe a little improved with a full season of Renteria at SS, but not what I would consider the strength of this club.

Put it all together and you’ve got about a five-win improvement from last year’s 98 win, World Champion team. That translates to 103 wins in 2005, which I truly believe is realistic, and enough to overtake the Yankees for Boston’s first division championship since 1995. Big whoop, I know, the key is the Series and they got that done last year, but it’s still something to shoot for.