Red Sox Preview, Part 1 - the hitters

This is part one of my two-part Red Sox 2005 preview. Here I’m going to look at the lineup using some projections that I developed. It’s a rather simplistic projection system that I call the Monkee system, because a) it’s easy enough that a monkey could do it, b) I like that fact that TangoTiger named his “monkey” projection system (Marcel, after the monkey featured in Friends, and c) the Monkees were fun but not to be taken too seriously, like my projection system. At the end I’ll make some conclusions about the overall production we can expect from the 2005 Red Sox.

Catcher: Jason Varitek
536 PA 296/390/482 18HR 84RC 2004
527 PA 282/364/473 19HR 77RC 2005

Varitek has been remarkably consistent over the last three years in terms of playing time, and his production has been very similar in 2003-04. The past two years were the best of ‘Tek’s career, and at his age it may be optimistic to assume that he’ll continue in that vein. However, it’s a lot easier to do that than to predict exactly when he will become an “old” catcher and fall off the cliff with his offense. Varitek has greatly improved his walk rate over the last couple of years, a skill that should stay with him even as he loses bat speed. Beyond the offense, however, ‘Tek remains a rock in the lineup. Named captain for 2005, he’s the leader of this team and always the most prepared player on the field. I expect a slight dropoff in offense, maybe at the cost of about one win to the team.

I don’t plan to spend a lot of time discussing the backups, but Doug Mirabelli gets a start every five days, and his playing time has also been remarkably consistent over the last three years. Mirabelli was also a bit over his head with the bat last year, generating 30 RC in 182 PAs (about 6.7 RC/27 outs). I’d expect less average and power, resulting in about 23 RC in 175 Pas. Overall I expect the catcher’s bats to regress to the tune of about 1.5 wins this season.

First Base: Kevin Millar
588 PA 297/383/474 18HR 88RC 2004
577 PA 291/367/480 20HR 87RC 2005

Wow, Millar’s numbers were really close to Varitek’s last season. This projection may be a tad optimistic, as the formula includes Millar’s 2002 season with Florida, which was much better than either of his Boston seasons, and Millar is also in his mid-30’s now. However, the fact remains that he still has good bat speed, and his second half numbers (319/408/566, 13 HR after the All Star break) are certainly encouraging, very much in line with his performance with the Marlins (after compensating for park differences). What we’re really doing is splitting the difference in projecting status quo – I could see .310 with 25 HRs as easily as .270 with 15 HRs. Millar will continue to get most of the PAs at first base, with David McCarty serving as the late-inning defensive replacement.

Second Base: Mark Bellhorn
620 PA 264/373/444 17HR 85RC 2004
497 PA 254/368/429 14HR 65RC 2005 “Mickey Dolenz”
640 PA 254/368/429 18HR 83RC 2005 “Joe’s Sea Blog”

Here’s a challenge – predict Mark Bellhorn’s 2005 performance. At first it seems difficult. His last three years have been played for three different teams (Cubs, Rockies, Red Sox), in three different (albeit all hitter-friendly) ballparks. (OK, everybody gives Wrigley credit for being hitter-friendly, but in reality it scored slightly under 100 during Bellhorn’s time there, so it’s really kind of neutral these days). Add into the equation the fact that Dusty Baker grew quickly disenchanted with Marky Mark’s “take and take” approach and quickly relegated him to the bench, then exiled him to Colorado where Bellhorn couldn’t get anything started. The result, using the Monkee, is a projection showing decreased playing time this year, and worse rate stats than Bellhorn has posted in two of the last three years.

I’m going to go ahead with Mickey’s rate stats – Mickey was always well-intentioned, I thought - because you really can’t ignore the fact that Bellhorn sucked in ’03. Heck, they’re pretty good for a second baseman anyway. I did, however, take the liberty of bumping up the PA’s above even last year, because despite the fact that Bellhorn will be hitting down in the order this year, Pokey Reese is no longer around and the 2B job clearly belongs to Bellhorn.

Oh, yeah. If he does get that many plate appearances, Bellhorn will likely break his own Red Sox strikeout record. Get over it.

Third Base: Bill Mueller
460 PA 283/363/446 12HR 64RC 2004
500 PA 297/374/475 13HR 77RC 2005 “Peter Tork”

That projection is just silly, so I’ve named it Peter Tork, who I always thought was the Silly Monkee. There’s a heavy emphasis on Mueller’s 2003 batting championship year, which was an extreme outlier for his career, especially the slugging percentage, and is extremely unlikely to be repeated. I think Mueller will bat in the 290s, but his OBP and SLG will probably be closer to what he put up last season – maybe even a little lower when it comes to the power numbers. Mueller’s a great guy to have in the lineup, and an .800 OPS would be nothing for him to be ashamed of. Billy Muell’s been kind of injury prone over the years (and in fact has been dinged up this spring), so I think the playing time estimate is pretty good. He will be backed up by Kevin Youkilis, who is likely to put up similar numbers to Mueller’s, or possibly Ramon Vazqez, whose skill set makes him better suited to the middle infield (i.e. – he can’t hit). I see 3B overall as being fairly level with last year’s output.

Shortstop: Edgar Renteria
685 PA 272/309/411 14HR 81RC 2004 (Pokey, Nomar, Orlando)
642 PA 305/354/435 11HR 91RC 2005 (Renteria projection).

Here’s another one where the projection is likely to be a bit on the plus side, because Renteria had a huge year in 2003. Still, I think that 2004 was kind of low for him, which brings this down a bit, too. I’d be surprised to see quite so high a BA from Renteria (who was the best shortstop in Sea Dogs history, by the way, at least maybe until Hanley Ramirez came along), but I think he’ll benefit from Fenway. Worst case scenario is that he puts up the numbers that Boston’s three shortstops accumulated last season, though I would be shocked if his OBP were anywhere near as low as .309. Intuitively, I’d guess something along the lines of 290/340/430 from Renteria and 85-90 RC, so about a half a win improvement at this position.

Left Field: Manny Ramirez
663 PA 308/397/613 43HR 137RC 2004
638 PA 321/416/609 39HR 136RC 2005 “Davy Jones”

Manny is pretty consistent, and I would expect more of the same in 2005. 2004 was actually a bit of a down year for him, especially in terms of BA and OBP. The Monkee dings him a bit in playing time due to his injury in 2002. If Manny stays healthy, he’ll likely create a few more runs than last year, but that’s really picking nits, isn’t it?

I threw Davy Jones’ name on Manny’s projection, because Davy was always the pretty Monkee, and boy, is that projection pretty!

Center Field: Johnny Damon
702 PA 304/380/477 20HR 112RC 2004
698 PA 290/362/466 16HR 100RC 2005

Whew! Finally somebody who is projected to do worse than last year. I was beginning to worry about my projection method. (Actually, I am right to worry, given how much thought went into the system.) Damon hit like he did in his last couple of seasons in Kansas City last season, which is what the Sox were expecting when they inked him to a four-year deal following the 2001 season. He was (and is) unquestionably one of the best leadoff men in baseball, combining patience at the plate (BB/K > 1.0, one BB every 10 PAs, 4.13 pitches/PA) with some pop and good baserunning skills (career 83% base stealer). Damon is still young (31 this year), but on the wrong side of the peak curve, which means that he’s not likely to improve upon last year. Still, the projection is for 100 runs created, or about a one-win drop from last season, which would be pretty darn good.

Right Field: Trot Nixon
697 PA 271/324/413 15HR 83RC 2004 (Nixon/Kaplar/Roberts/Minky)
375 PA 291/372/527 17HR 64RC 2005 “Mike Nesmith”
500 PA 291/372/527 23HR 85RC 2005 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

Mike Nesmith always seemed like the pessimistic Monkee, and I think the Monkee projection here is kind of pessimistic in terms of playing time. While it’s true that Nixon missed a ton of time last year and is a pretty high injury risk, he did collect 500+ plate appearances in the four seasons prior to 2004, which should count for something. Because Trot is entering the season healthy, I’m optimistic that he’ll reach 500 plate appearances. It’s clear from the above that 500 PA’s from Trot Nixon is likely to equal the output of the entire cast of RF candidates from last year (Nixon himself included). (Doug Mientkiewicz is included there, too, because Millar saw some time in RF with Minky at first base.)

However, this leaves quite a few unclaimed plate appearances from this position. Replacing Gabe Kaplar as the super backup outfielder for the Red Sox this year is Jay Payton, acquired from the Padres in the Dave Roberts trade. Payton’s playing time won’t likely come totally at the expense of Trot Nixon, but this seems like the most appropriate place to fill in the gap, so here we go.

Right Field: Jay Payton
200 PA 287/340/451 6HR 27 RC 2005 Joe’s SeaBlog projection

I’m not sure how good a projection these numbers are, but I’m running with them – over the last three years (the time frame used by the Monkee system), Payton played about half of his games for the Rockies and the other half for the Mets and Padres. So half of his totals come from a great hitter’s park and the other half from great pitchers parks. Given that the Monkee puts the most emphasis on the season spent in Petco, I’m guessing that the Coors effect is properly mitigated. So I’m projecting that Peyton will put up an OPS in the neighborhood of .800, which would be better than any of the non-Trot guys included in the 2004 numbers. As a result, I’m looking at a nearly 30-run improvement from RF, or about three wins over the course of the season.

DH: David Ortiz
669 PA 301/380/603 41 HR 133 RC 2004
573 PA 292/370/582 33 HR 108 RC 2005

Big Papi is a big part of the Sox’ lineup. He and Manny combine to provide incredible power in the heart of the order. The Monkee is predicting a drop in playing time this year because he wasn’t in the lineup full time in either 2002 with the Twins or his first year with the Red Sox (not until June or so anyway). Rest assured that if Ortiz is health all season long, he’ll get about 100 more PA than this projection, but I’m going to hedge my bets and call it about a two-win decline from last year.


Adding it all up, what do we get?
Dropoffs at catcher (1.5 wins), center field (1 win) and DH (2 wins)
Status quo at first, second, and third base and left field.
Improvement at shortstop (1 win) and right field (3 wins)

So, overall I’m guessing that the lineup is about as good as last year’s squad that led the AL in BA/OBP/SLG and runs scored. It’s not a young lineup, but there aren’t a lot of “old” guys, either. Most of the guys have been remarkably consistent in playing time over the last few years, so I think that the injury risk isn't that great. I thought, entering this exercise, that the Red Sox were going to be about as good 'this year as last, and the Monkees seem to agree with me. It also appears that Theo (In Theo we trust!) has done a remarkable job of gathering together guys with highly predictable performance, taking a lot of the risk out of assembling the team. The guy impresses me more every year.

Coming up next – the pitching.