Preseason Predictions

Maybe I'll flesh this out a little bit later, but here are my quick 'n' dirty 2005 predictions, as originally posted to the STATLG-L list:

AL East – Boston. Mr. Pythagorus would have us believe that the Red Sox were quite a lot better than the Yankees last season, and I think that the 2005 Sox (if the injury gods are on their side) are (at worst) equal to last year’s team. The Yanks are a force to contend with, but what are the odds that Johnson, Brown, Pavano and Wright all stay healthy this year? Not good enough that I’d be willing to bet on it.

AL Central – Minnesota. I like the Tribe, but I don’t believe they have the pitching this year. Minnesota’s minor league machine keeps putting the parts in place. And they have the best pitcher in the league, too.

AL West – Angels. I think that the A’s will surprise a lot of casual observers and give ‘em a run for their money, though.

AL Wild Card – Yankees.

NL East – Atlanta. This one’s wide open, but the Braves will find a way, once again. (The "way" will be pitching, in case you are wondering)

NL Central – St. Louis. The lineup is solid, and the pitching should be good enough. I expect a solid comeback from Mulder this year.

NL West – San Diego. Process of elimination: The D-Backs certainly haven’t improved by 40 games. The Rockies are the Rockies. The Ancients are missing the key to any of their success for the start of the season (though I’d be shocked if he was out until midseason). The Dodgers are starting Derek Lowe on opening day. The Padres have good pitching and a decent lineup. I think that’ll be enough.

NL Wild Card – Cubbies. Pitching and enough hitting. I agree with Mike that Nomar will have a big year. If Wood and Prior are back early enough, they’ll hold off Houston. This one is wide open, though.

World Series – Boston over Atlanta. None of the NL teams impress me all that much, so I’m predicting that the Braves will make a "late-dynasty" surprise appearance in the Show.