AL East Quarterly Report

Last in a series.

March 29 Prediction: Boston, New York, Toronto, Tampa Bay, Baltimore
Actual: Boston, New York, Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay

The Red Sox were an offensive juggernaut last season, but this year they are doing it with pitching. Led by Pedro and Schilling, the rotation has been solid (other than Derek Lowe), with Bronson Arroyo pitching capably where BK Kim has failed. The bullpen has been outstanding, with Keith Foulke allowing only one run in 23.1 IP. The pitching, along with injuries to Nixon and Garciaparra, have obscured the fact that the offense has been pretty good, too. They're 4th in the league in runs (10 behind the league leading Angels), and tops in OBP. Manny has been a monster, Ortiz and Varitek solid, and Bellhorn has been an OBP machine, making up for disappointing starts from everybody whose name resembles "Miller", but is spelled differently.

The Yankees trail the Sox by a game and a half, and have been disappointing in the process. Like the Sox, pitching leads the way for the Yankees. Brown and Vazquez have been good, Mussina is rounding into form, Lieber has pitched well, and Contreras has been a waste of money. The Yankee 'pen is much improved with Gordon and Quantrill, even if Rivera has allowed three times as many runs as Foulke thus far. The offense has been a mixed bag - Posada started out on fire, Matsui has stepped it up from last year, and ARod and Giambi have lived up to expectations, but Bernie has struggled, Sheffield hasn't shown any power, Wilson has been terrible at the plate - and Jeter has been even worse, with the worst BA and OPS (among qualifiers) in the entire majors. Jeter and Sheffield will improve, but I think they are still the second best team in the division.

I was hard on the Orioles in my predictions, but they have been better than expected thus far, only falling below .500 last night. Javy Lopez hasn't dropped off like I thought, and Tejada and Palmiero are in line with last season, while Melvin Mora is having another white-hot first half of the season. The pitching has been more consistent than I thought, despite a 5.40 ERA from the Ace and a 9+ ERA from Ainsworth. The bullpen has kept up with those of the Red Sox and Yankees, with Rodrigo Lopez being the biggest surprise. I think the Orioles start is a bit flukey, and that they will fall behind Toronto before they are done playing this season.

The Blue Jays are a big disappointment at 9 games below .500. Neither the pitching or the hitting have been as good as expected. Halladay has been decent with a 5.02 ERA, but Lilly, Bautista and Hentgen are all over 5.00 and, as anybody who has watched Toronto-Boston games can tell you, a call to the bullpen is akin to waving the white flag. The offense has been bad, other than Frank Catalanotto, with Delgado and Wells posting OPS below .800. Eric Hinske's rookie of the year award from 2002 is beginning to look like a fluke.

In my own defense, when I picked Tampa Bay to finish fourth, I did lead off the commentary by stating: "Tampa Bay will not finish fourth this season, but I think that they have more of a future than the Orioles, so I am picking them in that order anyway." The offense has been brutal. While Cruz and Tino have been better than I thought thus far, Aubrey Huff has a .640 OPS, and they have gotten nothing from guys like Geoff Blum, Robert Fick and Brook Fordyce. Doug Waechtler has been the ace of the staff, his 3.93 ERA is the only one under 5.00 for a starter. Jeremi Gonzalez pitched himself off the team. "Ace" Victor Zambrano has led the league in wildness, and recently walked 16 over two starts covering 6 innings pitched. The bullpen has been pretty good, with the top 5 guys sporting ERAs below 3.30, led by Danys Baez' 2.04, but there usually isn't anything for them to protect.