NL First Quarter

Now that we've reached the one-quarter mark of the major league season, let's check in with my pre-season predictions, starting with the National league.

NL East
Prediction: Phillies, Marlins, Braves, Expos, Mets
Actual: Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Braves, Expos

The Phillies have done it with offense, as Pat Burrell has indeed bounced back and David Bell forgot who he is. The pitching has been solid, with all starters sporting ERA's under 4.5. The Marlins got off to a hot start and have some exciting young players in Cabrera and Choi. The pitching has also been good (though less dominant than expected), with the unsurprising exception of Darren Oliver. The Mets and Braves are in a virtual tie. The Braves have been hampered by injuries to Furcal and Giles. When JD Drew gets hurt, they'll be officially done. The Mets offense is weak, the pitching has been pretty strong, but Al Leiter is hurt and when you think that a guy like James Baldwin can help, that's not a good sign. I seem to have missed the boat on the Expos, who have been anemic on offense. This team can't afford any injuries, so missing Nick Johnson and Carl Everett is bad enough, but neither Cabrera or Vidro is hitting his weight. Re-signing Vidro, however, was a good move. The pitching has been decent, expecially Day and Livan Hernandez. The fact that Rocky Biddle has 9 saves and a 7.63 ERA is an indication that the "proven closer"

NL Central
Prediction: Cubs, Astros, Cardinals, Reds, Brewers, Pirates
Actual: Astros, Cubs, Reds, Cardinals, Brewers, Pirates

Not too shabby on my part. The Cubs pitching has been excellent, even without Mark Prior, and the Astros better than I expected, especially Roger Clemens. Still, only a game separates the two teams. The Reds are also only a game out but, having been outscored by 10 runs this season, that seems a bit fluky to me. The Cardinals are in fourth, only a game and a half out of first, and the offense has led the way. Other than the disappointing Woody Williams, the Redbird pitching has also been good, with Chris Carpenter's resurrection (5-1, 3.93) especially surprising. Also surprising are the Brewers, who are in fifth but are two games above .500. It's all offense, especially Lyle Overbay, who is sporting a 1.027 OPS and pretty much making up for the loss of Richie Sexson on his own. However, Junior Spivey and Craig Counsell are also playing capably, as is the given-up-for-dead Ben Grieve. Ben Sheets has pitched well and recently set a club record with 18 K's in one game, but the rest of the staff (Bangor's own Matt Kinney, I'm looking at you) have been, ahem, not good. The Pirates are also surprisingly good thus far, only two games below .500 in last place. The Wilsons, Jack and Craig, have led the offensive attack (don't expect it to continue for Jack), while interesting guys like Jason Bay and Daryle Ward have hit well in limited action. The Pirates have received some decent pitching from Oliver Perez (part of the Brian Giles deal, along with Bay), Kip Wells and Kris Benson. And some how, some way, Jose Mesa has 12 saves and an 0.49 ERA. See my comment about Jack Wilson.

NL West
Prediction: Padres, Giants, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rockies
Actual: Dodgers, Padres, Giants, Rockies, Diamondbacks

The NL West was hardest for me to get my hands around in the pre-season. The Padres have done about as I expected, and are in a virtual tie for first place with the Dodgers. The Padres offense has been a bit weaker than I thought, Petco Park aside. Brian Giles has hit wall, as has Mark Loretta, but Klesko has stunk and lets just say that Yoga hasn't done anything for Phil Nevin's swing. The pitching has been good, and Trevor Hoffman has been almost as dominant as usual. The Dodgers have caught me off guard, though their 8-game losing streak maybe indicates that they weren't that good to begin with. Adrian Beltre seems to be realizing his potential, and Paul Lo Duca is off to his usual hot start. The pitching has disappointed, evidenced by Wilson Alvarez being about the best guy out there not named Gagne. Jeff Weaver continues to flop. In my preview, I described the Giants lineup as a "sick experiment", surrounding Bonds with a bunch of empty sticks. Bonds has posted a 1.420 OPS, and Marquis Grissom has hit well. However, Neifi Perez plays every day and has a .540 OPS, and JT Snow and Edgardo Alfonso can no longer hit, either. The pitching has been so bad (Dustin Hermanson is the second-best starter thus far, and Matt Herges is the closer) that Felipe Alou left a recently-injured Jason Schmidt in for 144 pitchers in his one-hitter the other night. The offense looks good, superficially, but it's mostly the Coors effect, though Charles Johnson is having a nice bounceback season. The pitching has posted a 6.30 ERA, and that's not all Coors, either. At least they finally cut the cord on Scott Elarton, and Joe Kennedy (2.82 ERA) has pretty much come out of nowhere. Finally, the Diamondbacks have been a big disappointment. Aside from Finley and Gonzalez (both still chugging along), the offense hasn't been good, and Shea Hillenbrand still sucks. The pitching hasn't been good, either. Randy Johnson, of course, had a perfect game and has been terrific. Brandon Webb, with a 2.93 ERA, is indicating that last season was no fluke. But apparently guys like Steve Sparks and Elmer Dessens aren't the kind of pitchers you want rounding out your rotation. Who knew?