Dogs Walk off With a Win

Bases loaded, two outs, bottom of the ninth. The Portland Sea Dogs and the Connecticut Defenders are tied at two. At bat is Boston's top prospect - one of the top 10 or 15 in all of baseball this year according to most - slugging first baseman Lars Anderson. The crowd is on its feet. The biggest pitch of the night is on its way. Anderson cocks his bat and.....

watches it miss the strike zone! Ball four! Sea Dogs win!

OK, so it's not the most clutchiest-sounding finish for such a dramatic situation. A grand slam certainly would have made (what was left of) the crowd go much more nuts than it did. But a win is a win, and the finish illustrates one of the reasons Anderson is so highly regarded - his patience at the plate. Sure, he's a big strapping kid with lots of power, but there are lots of those kinds of players out there. Anderson realizes that you don't have to hit every pitch out of the ballpark to win games. He's not afraid to take a walk, and this combination of on-base skill and pure power are what sets him apart from the rest. He's 21 years old and already in AA. He's got a bright future ahead of him.

Good seats still available

Also impressing last night was 22-year-old center fielder Josh Reddick. Reddick isn't as big as Anderson, and he's more athletic. Reddick is also much more aggressive at the plate. Contrary to the Red Sox organizational philosophy of being patient at the plate, Reddick rarely walks. However, he has a sweet swing, hits the ball squarely and has surprising power. Reddick was 4-5 with a double and a game-tying home run in the bottom of the 8th. Reddick also has good speed, which enabled him to leg out an infield single with two outs in the 9th, helping to set up Anderson's heroics. Reddick's legs also enabled him to track down a long fly ball off the bat of Connecticut's Bobby Felmy in the sixth inning, saving extra bases.

The Sea Dogs got some good pitching as well. Starter Adam Mills gave up two runs over the first five innings, but he was extremely efficient in throwing only 56 pitches. Also efficient was reliever Richie Lentz. After allowing the aforementioned deep fly ball by Felmy, Lentz overpowered the next five Connecticut batters with his blazing fastball. He recorded five strikeouts while throwing only three pitches out of the strike zone. Reliever Chris Province collected the win by allowing only one baserunner to reach (on an error) over the last two frames.

Top pitching prospect Junichi Tazawa enjoys the Portland weather while charting pitches.

Though it was the second game of the season, the crowd was of the typical April Friday variety, with about 3,000 in attendance. Fortunately the weather was warmer than I expected, with temps in the mid 50's at game time and mid 40's by the time the final run scored. Here's hoping the mild air is the norm this spring!

Return of the Monkee

I did this thing for a couple of years where I came up with some rudimentary projections of how the Red Sox players will hit during the upcoming season, in order to guess if they will be better or worse than last year. The simple explanation is that I do a weighted-average computation based on the last three seasons stats, with the most recent season weighted the heaviest. Last year I think I skipped this exercise, but it's a new season and I'm ready to give it a go again.

C Jason Varitek (age 37)
472 PA: 220/313/359, 13 HR, 47 Runs Created 2008
481 PA: 236/334/388, 14 HR, 55 Runs Created 2009 Monkee

Varitek's hitting was abysmal last season, particularly when batting left-handed. The Monkee is looking for a bit of a bounceback this season, but a modest one. Lots of people point to Varitek's off-field problems as the reason for his poor season. I point to the fact that he was a 36-year-old catcher who had an awful season with the bat two years earlier. I expect the plate appearances to fall short of this projection, as George Kottaras starts being groomed to take over full time in a year or two.

1B Kevin Youkilis (30)
621 PA: 312/406/569, 29 HR, 120 RC 2008
645 PA: 297/390/500, 21 HR, 109 RC Monkee

Youkilis had a career year in 2008. I hear lots of Sox fans say he's going to build on it and be a true slugger. Maybe he will, but the fact of the matter is that prior to 2008, Youk had never hit more than 29 home runs over the course of two seasons, ever, in his career. The 21 HR projected by the Monkee looks about right to me, with Youkilis's typical solid OBP.

2B Dustin Pedroia (25)
726 PA: 326/372/493, 17 HR, 123 RC 2008
650* PA: 318/369/468, 13 HR, 105 RC Monkee

Pedroia had a breakout season last year, winning the AL MVP award with solid hitting, decent power, and Gold Glove defense. Because the Monkee uses three years of data, Pedroia's abbreviated 2006 stats are included, so I increased the plate appearances to what should be a more realistic figure. The Monkee projects some regression, which is reasonable, but Pedroia is at an age that he could easily continue to improve. If anything, I think the slugging projection is reasonable but that Pedroia will draw more walks and exceed this OBP projection.

3B Mike Lowell (35)
468 PA: 274/338/461, 17 HR, 63 RC 2008
564 PA: 296/354/479, 19 HR, 83 RC Monkee

Lowell missed 49 games last season due to injuries. He appears to be healthy again this season, and though he's getting older, he's also not been particularly injury-prone in the past. So I think the 564 plate appearances are reasonable. Lowell had an exceptional season in 2007, with a .324 BA and .378 OBP that were well above his career norms. Those numbers have inflated the projection a bit. I think the rate stats will be closer to his 2008 actuals, but the additional playing time will be worth an additional win for the team.

SS Julio Lugo (33) /Jed Lowrie (25)
613 PA: 263/344/365, 3 HR, 69 RC (Lugo and Lowrie combined) 2008
452 PA: 256/320/359, 6 HR, 49 RC Julio Lugo Monkee

I admit that there are problems with this projection. First of all, Lugo is injured and Lowrie will open the season as the starting shortstop. Secondly, the Monkee can't really handle projecting a half-season worth of performance, so I have nothing for Lowrie. Suffice it to say that I believe the shortstop position will generate more offense than the Lugo projection above, because if Lugo gets the job back when he returns from injury, he'll have to do better than this to keep the job. Lowrie, who used to seemingly pull walks out of thin air when he played for the Sea Dogs, hit 258/338/400 in his first taste of the majors last season, and I fully expect him to do better than that with additional experience.

LF Jason Bay (30)
636 PA: 297/388/528, 29 HR, 113 RC (Bay and Manny Ramirez combined) 2008
655 PA: 274/364/491, 29 HR, 107 RC Monkee

Jason Bay came to the Red Sox in the beginning of August and basically continued Manny Ramirez' production through the rest of the season. Of course nobody noticed that because Manny went out and hit close to .400 for the Dodgers over the same time period. Bay doesn't hit for the same kind of average as Manny, but I expect him to post a good OBP and the same solid power that this position generated in 2008.

CF Jacoby Ellsbury (25)
609 PA: 280/333/394, 9 HR, 78 RC 2008
650 PA*: 290/341/409, 10 HR, 89 RC 2009 Monkee

As with Pedrioa, I have bumped up Ellsbury's playing time, which the Monkee diluted due to the fact that 2008 was the speedster's first full season in the majors. Interestingly, Ellsbury's ridiculous September of 2007 skews the averages upward to a projection that I think is reasonable for the coming season. Because he is the leadoff hitter, Ellsbury's will want his OBP to meet or exceed this level or he will be a liability.

RF JD Drew (33)
456 PA: 280/408/519, 19 HR, 82 RC 2008
517 PA: 277/392/479, 17 HR, 85 RC Monkee

The oft-injured Drew missed 53 games in 2008. The Monkee expects him to be in the lineup more in 2009 - but only by about 15 games because, as previously mentioned, the man gets hurt a lot. The Monkee expects JD's increase in playing time to be tempered by a drop off in power, as 2008 was his best year since '05 in that area. I think Drew can repeat in the power deparment this year, but my best guess is that his actual rates will split the difference between 2008 and the Monkee projection. I think he'll be worth half a win simply by appearing in the lineup more.

DH David Ortiz (33)
491 PA: 264/369/507, 23 HR, 79 RC 2008
590 PA: 295/408/580, 33 HR, 120 RC Monkee

With the Monkee projecting a 41 run increase in Ortiz' offense (four wins), it's clear that Big Papi's health is a big key to Boston's success in 2009. Ortiz started very slowly and ended up missing 53 games, due a wrist injury and perhaps also residual effects from a sore knee. Many are concerned that Ortiz will continue to struggle as his body breaks down. I think differently. At 33, the big man isn't especially old, and like Lowell he's not historically been injury-prone. I think a decent bounceback can be expected, and while the 50 home run season won't be repeated, 33 dingers is well within his reach.

The Red Sox were second in the American League last year with 845 runs scored (5.22 per game), this despite the fact that Varitek was a black hole, and Ortiz, Lowell, Drew and Manny each missed a third of Boston's season. The raw projections above show +35 runs from the returning players, or 3.5 wins. What's missing from this equation is of course the bench. Coco Crisp in particular grabbed over 409 plate appearances and created 53 runs, filling in the gaps when Ellsbury and Drew were out of the lineup. Much of the 35 run increase projected is simply the result of the core players remaining in the lineup.

But that doesn't mean I think that the offense will lose runs this year. On the contrary: I believe that the projections for Drew, Pedroia and the shortstop position are a bit on the pessimistic side, whereas Lowell and Ellsbury are optimistic but maybe closer to reality, especially with Ellsbury.

Then there is the particular matter of the bench. Last year Kevin Cash "complemented" Jason Varitek with a somehow-worse .647 OPS. This year's backup will be George Kottaras. He's a rookie, but the numbers he put up in Pawtucket (243/348/456, 22 HRs) and his age (26) suggest a guy that will hit major league pitching at a better than .700 OPS. No, his batting average doesn't excite anybody, but he's got a nice combination of discipline and power and I think he will blossom in a part-time role this season.

Secondly, Crisp's replacement as primary backup outfielder this season is Rocco Baldelli. I acknowledge that there are legitimate questions about how much Baldelli will be able to play given his medical issues, but if he's on the field, he's going to produce with the bat. He's never been a strong OBP guy, but he's got real power, and he should easily outproduce Crisp.

Overall, I think there's a very good chance that this lineup is 35 runs better than last season. The standard conversion is that 10 runs = 1 win, so that would mean the Sox will win 3.5 more games this year than last given the lineup. Of course we have yet to look at the pitching (which I think will be better), or the competition (which I think will be better), but the Red Sox definitely look to be poised for another 90+ win season and another trip to the playoffs in 2009.