NL West Preview

The last book, and this one promises to be the shortest. You may have noticed that I tend to write less about the bad teams in these previews. These should be short.

1) San Diego 2) San Francisco 3) Arizona 4) Los Angeles 5) Colorado

OK, the Padres were 64-98 last season, which is terrible. What makes me think that they will be able to win the requisite 20+ additional games this season? Well, for starters, every other team in the division is worse than last year. I’m not sure the “+” will really be necessary to get to enough wins. Anyway, first of all they get a full year of Brian Giles, who (many people don’t realize) is one of the best hitters in the majors (his OPS+ of 148 last year was his worst of the last five years). Secondly, they get a full year of Phil Nevin, who was hurt much of last year. Third, Ramon Hernandez is better than Gary Bennett. Burroughs is getting better, and Klesko can still swing it. The Pads will have a good offense this year. The pitching will also be better. David Wells is old and (usually) fat, but he’s been good pretty much everywhere he has pitched. Valdez and Hithcock are decent back-of-the-rotation guys. Brian Lawrence is solidly mediocre, and Jake Peavey and Adam Eaton are youngsters with promise. The might only win 87 or so games, but that will be enough.

The Giants are turning into some sort of sick experiment – just how little can we surround Bonds with? Bonds will be good, but I don’t think he’s going to be Bonds this year. He has to slow down sometime, right? AJ Pierzinski is a good upgrade at catcher, Durham is a good 2B, but Fonzie may not be a big stick any more, and Neifi Perez is in the lineup. The rest of the lineup (Snow, Grissom, etc.) is likewise old and mediocre. And the rotation is – who? Jason Schmidt has a tender arm, and without him the Giants are sunk. Jerome Williams impressed as a rookie last year, but Kirk Reuter is an aging soft-tosser, and guys like Brett Tomko and Dustin Hermanson look to get a lot of innings. Yuck! 85 wins and second place for the Giants.

The Diamondbacks are another old team. Lineup mainstays include Steve Finley, Luis Gonzalez and now Robbie Alomar. All old, and Robbie’s not handling it well. Richie Sexson is not so old, and he can really swing it – he’ll be a big upgrade at first base, and enable “Swing Away” Shea Hillenbrand to be an outmaker at third this season. Alex Cintron is a good bat at SS. They’ll score a fair amount of runs because of their park, but I think they’ll be a below-average offense this year. Pitching has always been the real strength of this team, but Curt Schilling is gone to Boston, and the Unit wasn’t so good last year. I think Johnson will bounce back and win about 20 this year, though. Brandon Webb was great last year, and was deserving of the NL Rookie of the Year, but he didn’t get enough wins, therefore didn’t get the hardware. The rest of the rotation is made up of guys like Elmer Dessens and Shane Reynolds. Not good. 84 wins, just shy of the Giants.

The best acquisition for the Dodgers may have been new GM Paul dePodesta, a Billy Beane disciple who could very well turn this team around quickly (sooner if the ownership wasn’t so cash strapped). Last season the Dodgers had the worst offense in the majors. They still do. The middle infield of Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis can throw the leather, but can not hit a lick. Paul LoDuca is a decent hitting catcher, but he might get some time at 1B, where his bat is not an asset (nor is Robin Ventura’s for that matter). The Dodgers added Juan Encarnacion and (recently) Jayson Werth from the OF-prospect rich Blue Jays, but neither of these guys looks like a difference maker. A rebound from Shawn Green and a breakout from Adrian Beltre are the only real hope for the Dodgers. But who cares about offense, right? The strength of this team is pitching. And LA did have the best pitching in the league last year. But they traded their best pitcher (Kevin Brown) for a guy who, frankly, stunk up the joint in the Bronx last summer (Jeff Weaver). Nomo had an abnormally good year, Ishii is middling at best, Perez may or may not be a good pitcher, and Edwin Jackson is 20 years old. They’ll be good, but not good enough. Bullpen’s great, though – Mota and (of course) Eric Gagne were devastating last year. They’ll be around .500 this year.

Colorado is a train wreck in the middle of one of those tunnels through the Rocky Mountains. Todd Helton is great. Larry Walker would be if he could stay healthy. Preston Wilson puts up superficially good numbers. Jeromy Burnitz will do the same. Original Sea Dog great Charles Johnson’s best years are behind him. Vinny Castilla returns. Royce Clayton is the starting SS. The bad news started early in that list. As for the pitching, Shawn Estes gets the opening day start. Look out, Rockpile! 65 wins and the cellar for the Rockies this year.