Hall of Fame Preview, Part 3

This is the third part in our series reviewing those on the Hall of Fame ballot. In parts one and two, I discussed the down-ballot candidates who will have trouble staying on the ballot, or for many, earning any votes. Today we look at the new entries who will receive serious consideration for election, including two who I believe are deserving of the ultimate honor.

Edgar Martinez – DH/3B (1987-2004 Seattle): 312/418/515-309-1,261, 147 OPS+. Simply stated, Edgar Martinez could hit. His career triple-slash stats are all in the top 100 all time, including 22^nd in OBP, 34^th in OPS and 43^rd in OPS+. He won two batting titles and finished in the top 10 seven times. He won three OBP titles and finished in the top 10 eleven times. He won one OPS title among eight top 10 finishes. He drew a ton of walks, hit a ton of doubles, and scored and drove in a lot of runs. His bat was strong enough to send Martinez Unfortunately, he didn’t do much more than hit. Martinez came up as a third baseman, but had difficulty staying on the field due to injuries. He became a full-time DH at age 32, after which time his bat flourished. to seven All Star games and earn MVP votes five times.

Martinez is below average for a Hall of Famer on the Black Ink and Gray Ink measures, but does hold his own on the HOF Monitor and HOF Standards tests. I don’t put as much stock in the Ink for modern players, who are competing against a much larger player pool to get on the leaderboards. Martinez’ bat must be judged against the first basemen and corner outfielders in the Hall, by which measure his career totals begin to pale. His top career comp is Will Clark, who received no real consideration for the Hall. The only Hall of Famer among Martinez’ top 10 comps is Orlando Cepeda, at #10 and himself a marginal member of the Hall. Also on the list is Bernie Williams, who might get inducted one day, but if so it will have more to do with the World Series rings than for his playing record.

Fred McGriff – 1B (1986-2004, prominently with Atlanta, Toronto and Tampa Bay): 284/377/509-493-1,550, 134 OPS+. McGriff will be an interesting case, because what happened in the first half of his career seems to be overshadowed by what happened in the second half of his career. McGriff was one of the top power hitters in the majors from his first full season in 1988 until the strike ended the 1994 season, the winner of two home run titles in that time frame and on pace to hit 50 homers in 1994. At that time in his career, he was 30 years old with 262 homers and a career OPS+ of 153 – numbers that closely matched Hall of Famer Willie McCovey.

After that point, while still a potent hitter, McGriff clearly slipped from his previous lofty performance. He still had three 30-HR seasons left in him, and he exceeded 900 OPS twice, but such numbers came at a time when league leaders were exceeding 50, 60, even 70 home runs per year. As a result, even his early-career accomplishments lost some luster – through no fault of his own, having at one time led the league with 36 and 35 homers no longer impressed. Indeed, McGriff never hit as many as 40 homers in a single season. On the flip side, I’ve never seen McGriff associated with steroids, which may be a point in his favor with voters.

That said, McGriff has a strong claim to the Hall of Fame. He’s tied with Lou Gehrig for 26^th on the all time home run list with 493. Ironically, this number may come back to haunt him, as there is likely to be backlash over the fact that he didn’t make it to 500. McGriff never won an MVP award, but he received votes 8 times and finished in the top 10 six of those. He has four Hall of Famers among his top 10 career comps (top comp McCovey, Willie Stargell, Billy Williams, and Eddie Matthews), along with a couple more likely inductees (Jeff Bagwell and the right Frank Thomas). As with others of his class, McGriff falls a bit short on the Black and Gray Ink tests, but he’s right in line with the average HOF members in the Monitors and Standards measures. And that’s probably what will be his biggest hurdle – McGriff was one of the great hitters of all time, but he’s exceeded by several other first basemen already in the Hall or on the way. I think he’ll stick around on the ballot, but it remains to be seen if he’ll gather enough support over the years to make it.

Deserving Hall of Famers

Barry Larkin – SS (1984 – 2004, Cincinnati): 295/371/444-198-960, 379 SBs, 116 OPS+. I don’t hear a lot of buzz about Larkin, but among those I read and correspond with, Barry Larkin seems like a no-brainer. He was a 12-time All Star, won 9 silver slugger awards, three gold gloves, and the 1995 National League MVP. Larkin also batted .338 with three homers in 17 career post season games, and led the Reds to the 1990 World Series title.

Late in Larkin’s career, the “new” prototype for offense-first shortstops came into vogue, led by Alex Rodriguez, Nomar Garciaparra, and Derek Jeter, and threatened to turn the more traditional-looking Larkin into an afterthought. Ten years on, however, that doesn’t seem to be the case. ARod moved to third base and Nomar’s career derailed due to injury, while Jeter’s game was always much more comparables to Larkin’s to begin with. Larkin hit for average, drew a lot of walks without striking out, and was a very prolific and successful base stealer in the first half of his career. His top career comp is Alan Trammell, who has an interesting case in his own right (we’ll be looking at him later). Others on the list of comps include Hall of Famers Ryne Sandberg, Joe Cronin and Pee Wee Reese, along with Jeter, who will no doubt earn a plaque following his retirement. Another notable career comp to Larkin is the man we discuss next: Roberto Alomar.

Roberto Alomar – 2B (1988-2004, prominently with Toronto, Cleveland, Baltimore and San Diego ): 300/371/443-210, 1,134, 474 SB, 116 OPS+. 12-time all star, 10 time gold glove winner, five times a top-10 vote getter for MVP. For 14 seasons, Robbie Alomar was a no-brainer Hall of Fame talent, on his way to an easy 3,000 hits and first-ballot induction. Then at age 34 he was traded to the Mets and suddenly became a .260 hitter instead of a .300 hitter. He was done just two years later. People seem to hold that against Alomar, but every player suffers some down years. Alomar was simply the best second baseman in baseball for a decade and a half – hitting for average, stealing bases, scoring a ton of runs and even driving in 100+ a couple of times.

Alomar’s career ended a little too abruptly for him to reach the upper-echelons in most career statistics. He did manage to finish in the top 50 in doubles and steals, and he’s slightly above that number in many other categories. He had a fine post season record, hitting .313 in 58 games and he played the keystone for both of Toronto’s world champion squads. His top career comp is Jeter, and in addition to Larkin he has five other Hall of Famers on his list: Frankie Frisch, Ryne Sandberg, Joe Morgan, Charlie Gehringer, and George Davis. Alomar should go into the Hall of Fame on his first ballot this year.

Hall of Fame Preview, Part 2

In Part 1, we looked at the players new to this year's Hall of Fame ballot who really have no chance of ever getting elected. Today, we'll take a look at three entries who will probably get some support, but who really fall short of the standards for immortality. They may or may not get to the 5% level needed to remain on the ballot for next year. In the post the follows, we'll take a look at the new entries who are either borderline candidates, or who are clearly worthy of the Hall.

The Hall of Very Good:

Ellis Burks – OF (1987-2004, prominently with Boston and Colorado): 291/363/510-352-1,206, 181 SB, 126 OPS+. Oft-injured throughout his career, Burks had a couple of great seasons which resulted in two all star selections. He also won a Gold Glove early in his career and finished third in the MVP vote in 1996. Fine rate stats were enhanced by 4+ seasons in Colorado when Coors Field was COORS FIELD! Top career comp is Moises Alou, though his top 10 list includes Hall of Famer Duke Snider, and a few guys who deserved (or deserve) more serious consideration than they received, including Dick Allen, Reggie Smith, Fred Lynn and (prospectively) Jim Edmonds.

Andres Galarraga – 1B (1985-2004, prominently with Montreal and Colorado): 288/347/499-399-1,425, 128 SB, 118 OPS+. A powerful first baseman, Galarraga had a monster year with the Expos in 1988, then faded for several years under injuries and an inability to make contact before storming back with the Rockies. Even more so than Burks, however, Galarraga’s numbers carry the taint of Coors field. Still, there are some impressive results, one batting title (.370 in 1993), one home run title, and two RBI titles. Galarraga gathered five All Star appearances and six times in the top 10 of the MVP vote during his career. He also collected two Gold Gloves along the way. His career comps are impressive: three of the top four are in the Hall of Fame (Orlando Cepeda, Jim Rice, Willie Stargell), while another, Jeff Bagwell, will be inducted in a few years. We’ll discuss the worthiness of still another, Fred McGriff, in a later post.

Robin Ventura – 3B (1989-2004, primarily with the White Sox): 267/362/444-294-1,182, 114 OPS+. Good hit/good field third baseman. Ventura had the classic corner infielder’s combination of power and patience at the plate, with two 30 HR/100 RBI seasons. He was respected enough that he finished in the top 10 in intentional walks seven times. Ventura was also a smooth fielder, winning six gold gloves at third base during his career. On the flip side, he didn’t garner a lot of hardware outside of the defensive accolades. He was named to just two All Star teams, and received MVP votes just twice, finishing 6^th in 1999 and 20^th in 1991. Top career comp is Ron Cey.

Hall of Fame Preview, Part 1

The Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) has released the list of finalists for the 2010 Hall of Fame Ballot. This includes newly-added players who have been retired five years, meet the minimum service requirements and passed the preliminary vetting process, as well as eligible carryovers from last year’s ballot who received at least 5% of the vote (but not the 75% required for election). Over the next few posts, I plan to take a look at this year’s crop, and separate the pretenders from the contenders.

First, the low-hanging fruit. Every year there are a handful of players who get nominated for the ballot, but who nobody thinks actually belong in the Hall of Fame. Lets take a quick look at those one-year-wonders who will neither get elected nor return to the ballot next year. There are a few who are worth a look, but ultimately fall short. There are also a few who really have no business on the ballot. Let's break them down.

Worth Talking About

Kevin Appier - P (1989-2004, primarily with Kansas City): 169-137, .552 W/L %, 3.74 ERA, 121 ERA+, 1.29 WHIP. One of the best pitchers in the American League through most of the 1990’s, including one ERA title, but no significant career leaderboard appearancs, no hardware and only one All Star game. Top career comp: Andy Benes.

Pat Hentgen - P (1991-2004, primarily with Toronto): 131-112, .539 W/L %, 4.32 ERA, 108 ERA+, 1.39 WHIP. Hentgen had a decent five-year stretch, featuring a Cy Young Award in 1996. Hentgen also made a couple of All Star teams and was an integral part of Toronto’s 1993 World Series Championship. Pitched 260+ innings in each of 1996 and 1997, but never reached 200 IP in a season again. Top career comp: Todd Stottlemyre.

Ray Lankford - OF (1990-2004, primarily with St. Louis): 272/364/477-238-874, 238 SB, 122 OPS+. Lankford maybe deserves better than this. He quietly put up some monster numbers in the mid-to-late 1990’s, featuring a corner OF bat in center field. Lankford topped .900 OPS twice, which is phenomenal, but nobody noticed because he was on the same team as Mark McGwire. Lankford also stole a lot of bases early in his career, but he got caught a bunch, too. He also struck out a lot and suddenly stopped being good at age 35. Top career comp is Kirk Gibson. Also has Hall of Famer Larry Doby on his career comps.

Probably Shouldn't be on the Ballot

Mike Jackson - P (1986-2004, prominently with Seattle, San Francisco and Cleveland): 62-67, 142 saves, 3.42 ERA, 125 ERA+, 1.22 WHIP. Jackson was a workhorse reliever for many years, and collected a bunch of saves as Cleveland’s closer in the late 90’s. Top career comp: Mike Timlin.

Eric Karros 1B (1991-2004, primarily with the Dodgers): 268/325/454-287-1,027, 107 OPS+. 1992 Rookie of the year. Had five seasons of 30+ HR/100+ RBI. Top career comp is Kent Hrbek. Also has Frank Thomas on his career comps, just not the right one.

Shane Reynolds - P (1992-2004, primarily with Houston): 114 - 96, .543 W/L %, 4.09 ERA, 103 RA+, 1.31 WHIP. Reynolds’ appearance on the ballot serves primarily to insult Dave Burba, a similar pitcher (115-87) who for some reason didn’t get through the nominating committee with Reynolds. Reynolds was a durable and effective guy for a few years. What he did have going for him was the ability to strike batters out with good control: his career K/BB rate of 3.35 is 20th-best all time. Top career comp: Matt Morris.

David Segui 1B (1990-2004, prominently with Baltimore, Seattle, and Cleveland): 291/359/443-139-684, 110 OPS+. Oft-injured and oft-traded, Segui was a fine player who developed into a solid BA/OBP guy. As a first baseman, however, his batting was far from special. He also had a decent defensive rep, though he never won a gold glove. Top career comp is Sean Casey.

Todd Zeile 2B (1989-2004, primarily with St. Louis): 265/346/423-253-1,110, 103 OPS+. He was pretty consistent, especially over the first half of his career, which was spent with St. Louis. He bounced around a lot after that. Zeile had some pop, but was never a leaderboard sort of guy. Top career comp is Tim Wallach.