Sox Trade Ramirez, Sanchez

Two of last summer's "untouchable" prospects were dealt by the Red Sox to the Florida Marlins yesterday. Athletic shortstop Hanley Ramirez and hard-throwing righty Anibal Sanchez, along with Jesus Delgado are heading to Miami in exchange for one former Sea Dog, Josh Beckett (another hard-throwing righty) and third baseman Mike Lowell. As I write this, the deal is pending physicals for all players involved.

A lot was made last summer of the fact that then-general manager Theo Epstein went on record as saying that Ramirez and Sanchez, along with infielder Dustin Pedroia and pitchers Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester, were "untouchable" in any trading deadline deals. I've heard some speculation that this deal represents a change in philosophy now that Theo is gone, but I don't believe that's the case. Given the opportunity to get at least two years of Josh Beckett, I think Theo would have pulled the trigger.

I like the trade. If the Sox are going to trade prospects, Beckett is exactly the guy that they should be getting. He'll be 26 next year, just hitting his prime. 'Course, I'd like it even more if Beckett had ever made 30 starts in a season, but I'm choosing to be optimistic. Beckett has been beset with blister problems throughout his career. However, he set many career highs in 2005, pitching 179.2 innings over 29 starts, finishing with a 15-8 record, 3.38 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 166/58 K/BB ratio. Beckett throws extremely hard but has decent control. When he's on, as he was in the 2003 playoffs, he is simply dominant.

Lowell has two years at $9 million per remaining on his contract. There is a lot of speculation that he will be shipped off in another deal, with the Red Sox eating some of the money, but I'm not certain that will be the case. With Bill Mueller now a free agent, the Sox may be in the market (though Kevin Youkilis is the heir apparent). Lowell was brutal with the bat last year (236/298/360-8-58), but given his track record I would think that he's likely to hit at least as well as Mueller did this year (295/365/430-10-62) while providing better defense - Lowell won the NL gold glove this year. Best case scenario is that he returns to the 30 homer, 100 RBI form that he showed in 2003-04. Everybody seems to think that Lowell will continue to be the terrible hitter that he was last season. While that could very well be the case, given his track record I see no reason to expect it.

If Lowell is moved, Youkilis would slot nicely at third base, but if Lowell sticks I can also see him taking over for Kevin Millar at first. Youkilis would undoubtedly be an upgrade here. He has terrific on-base skills, batting 278/400/405-1-9 in less than 100 plate appearances for Boston, and he absolutely destroyed AAA pitching (322/459/592-8-27 in 43 games). Youks will be 27 next year, just entering what should be his peak season, and he clearly could be an offensive force for the next couple of years.

Beckett and Lowell could both fill needs for the 2006 Red Sox, but was it worth it to trade two top prospects? In this case, I think so. I followed Ramirez and Sanchez closely this year. They're both terrific players, but both tradeable, too.

Sox fans have been tracking the progress of Hanley Ramirez for several years. Athletic and exciting to watch, I consider Ramirez a true five-tool player. However, Hanley didn't exactly take a leap forward in 2005 as I had expected, and in fact wasn't as good as in '04. After being promoted to Portland in August of that season, Ramirez tore up AA pitching to the tune of a 310/360/512-5-15 line over 32 games. Hanley started the 2005 season strong, but struggled a lot and ultimately finished at 271/335/385-6-52. Ramirez' speed was evident as he finished with 7 triples and 26 stolen bases.

A hitter who displayed terrific opposite-field gap power when he first arrived in Portland, Ramirez seemed to be intent on pulling the ball a lot this year, resulting in a ton of ground ball outs. There were some positive signs, as the reputed "free swinger" improved both his walk and strikeout rates. I don't actually consider Ramirez to be a free swinger, as he doesn't chase an inordinate number of bad pitches. He's just good at putting the ball in play, resulting in few walks. Ramirez is also a flashy glove man with good range and a strong arm, but he did commit a few errors that seemed to be the result of a lack of concentration on his part.

He's still a top prospect, but he's also blocked by Edgar Renteria for three more years, and the Sox have another top SS prospect (Jed Lowrie) who will likely make it to Portland by the end of the year and will potentially be ready to step in with the big club when Edgar's contract is done. Additionally, after all the years of buildup, there would be huge expectations for him in Boston. It may be better for his career to start out in an out-of-the-way place like Florida, where he may be the starting shortstop in 2006.

As for Sanchez, of the "big three" pitching prospects, he's the least advanced and has had the biggest injury history. Sanchez had a terrific 2005 season split between High-A Wilmington an AA Portland. In 25 total starts, Sanchez pitched 136 innings and recorded a 2.85 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 158/40 K/BB ratio. However, he developed a tired/sore arm toward the end of the season and averaged just five innings per start over his 11 Portland appearances. Given his prior arm troubles, that's a bit of a red flag. Sanchez has loads of upside - he throws mid-high 90's heat, a nice changeup and excellent control. His ceiling appears to be somewhere between Tim Hudson and Pedro Martinez. Still, Papelbon is already in the bigs and looking comfortable there, and Lester the same age as Sanchez, a half a season ahead in development, and left handed. I don't see the Red Sox ever having room to put three young guns in the rotation at once, so at least one of them had to go.

Ultimately, the Sox traded from strength here and solved a couple of problems. This is the way trades are supposed to go. I'd have loved to have seen both Hanley and Anibal playing in Fenway Park, but I think the trade helps the team, so I'm for it.

Halloween Nightmare

As readers of this Blog undoubtedly are aware, Theo Epstein resigned as general manager of the Boston Red Sox yesterday, ending a three-year reign that will go down as one of the most successful in Red Sox history. This is a sad day in Red Sox nation, and here in SeaBlog land. Theo was the wunderkind who made some unorthodox moves, found a lot of useful parts (and one powerful engine) from other teams' scrap piles, and rebuilt the farm system. And in the middle of all this, the Red Sox won their first championship since the Babe donned the red hose.

So, thanks for that, Theo. As Tony Massarotti pointed out in the Boston Herald, following the Red Sox championship last year, "despite all the factors that suggested it would be wise to address Epstein’s contract in a swift and decisive manner, (Sox president Larry) Lucchino forced his will on the negotiation and strung along his GM as if he were Alejandro Machado." In the end, Theo's relationship with his long-time mentor Lucchino appears to have been the death knell in the contract negotiations. Lucchino seems to have shaken Theo's trust with information that appeared in this column by Dan Shaugnessey of the Boston Globe.

Shaugnessey, for his part, is a smarmy a-hole. I don't read his stuff often, because it's full of two-faced player-bashing and his own ego. (Also plugs for his books.) This column is more of the same. To wit:

"Theo Epstein is a truly remarkable young man from a truly remarkable family. He would be a success in any field of his choice and Boston is fortunate that he set out to have a career in baseball. "

What a great guy! This is followed by:

"What is alarming -- for the future of the Sox franchise -- is Theo's sudden need to distance himself from those who helped him rise to his position of power. Lucchino and Dr. Charles Steinberg are a pair of Red Sox executives who ''discovered" Theo when he was a student at Yale. They picked him out of thousands of wannabe interns. "

So don't be so damned ungrateful, Theo! Next up:

"Let's start with Theo being a ''baseball guy" while Larry is a lawyer with a lofty title (CEO). Granted, Epstein is a student of the game, but it's a mistake to say he knows more about baseball than Lucchino or anyone else in the Red Sox baseball operation. Theo is 31 years old and did not play baseball past high school. He spent four years at Yale and three years at law school. That hardly leaves time for much more than rotisserie league scouting. He can read the data and has a horde of trusty, like-minded minions, but we're not talking about a lifetime of beating the bushes and scouting prospects. "

You're not as smart as you think you are!

Shaugnessey follows up today with a "why's everybody blaming me?" article. The man with two faces is at it again: "Not a good day. Not a good day at all. One of the brightest minds ever to grace the Red Sox front office is gone. " Followed by, "Blame me if it makes you feel any better, though it seems pretty ridiculous that Theo would break away from a man he worked with for 14 years because of a few lines he read in a column in the Sunday Globe." Theo is basically in a no-win position. He either left over greed, or over an immature hissy-fit.

Shaugnessey clearly does not get, or does not care to "get", that it's probably not the words themselves, so much as what the fact that they appeared in the Globe, with such a positive Lucchino spin, may represent. Lucchino is the Red Sox' henchman, the guy who ownership sends out to badmouth whoever needs to be badmouthed. (Actually, I suspect Lucchino does this on his own, with no prompting from Henry and Werner, because he seems to like it.) When Lucchino went to the media and spun his rift with Theo in this manner, the message was clear: "If it comes down to you or me, boy, it's going to be me!" Theo was a member of the inner circle of Red Sox management. He deserved to be treated better than this. Not that a guy like Nomar needed to be ripped on the way out the door, as Lucchino did following the 2004 deadline deal, but Theo was one of the architects of this team, and he was still (for a few more days) part of the inner circle.

Theo was right to question continuing to work with somebody who would do this to one of his own, especially in the middle of a contract negotiation. I've considered Larry Lucchino a necessary evil in the middle of an otherwise commendable management staff. Lucchino even has his strengths - the guy certainly knows how to build (or renovate) a ball park. But for his role in sending Theo, the Boy Wonder, out the door, he will always be the enemy of my soul.

That's right, Colin Young. You're off the hook now. (But don't get too comfortable.)

As for Theo, I wish him the best. Not everything that he touched turned to gold, especially with the bullpen moves this summer. But he did a lot right, including finding underrated guys like Bill Mueller to play key roles (and getting Big Papi for next to nothing). He's built a ripe farm system in just three years. I am concerned that his successor will fail to successfully identify the amateur talent as Theo can, and that the top prospects in the system today will be sent away for "veteran talent", as in the Dan Duquette era. I would be ecstatic if the Sox decided to can Lucchino and bring Theo back, but I don't see it happening. Barring that, I hope Theo gets to go to a smaller-market club and work his magic, a la Billy Beane. I don't want this to happen at Boston's expense, but I'd love to see what he can do over a longer time frame.

So no more Theo at Hadlock. Best of luck, boy wonder. And best of luck to the Red Sox in filling some mighty big shoes.