OK, Back in December . . .

(Which turns out to be over two months ago)

I wrote an analysis of the Sea Dogs hitting stats for the year - and I promised to follow up with an analysis of the Sea Dogs pitching stats for the years.

I failed to come through on that promise. (Like THAT's never happened before!) Frankly, I was not inspired by the Portland Sea Dogs pitching staff last year.

The best pitcher, bar none, was Abe Alvarez, who made 26 starts, pitched 135.1 innings, had a 10-9 record, 3.66 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 3.4 K/BB ratio and only walked 2.1 batters per nine innings. He earned himself a midseason start in Boston, and a promotion to AAA for 2005.

The biggest disappointment was knuckleballer Charlie Zink, who came in highly touted and disappointed from opening day. He made 18 starts in Portland, finishing 1-8 record, 5.79 ERA and 72 walks vs. 50 Ks in 93.1 IP.

Chris Smith showed promise, starting 14 games and going 5-3 with a 3.75 ERA. He struck out more than a batter an inning and had an impressive 4:1 K:BB ratio. Then he got hurt and shut it down for the year. This was a great performance cut short.

The rest of the starters were unimpressive. Josh Stevens started the year in Pawtucket, was sent down to AA, where he pitched well for a while but ended the year 6-9 with a 5.24 ERA in 20 starts. The rest of the guys were a middling combination of guys named Cameron, Gabbard, Gamble and Glaser. Nobody did anything to inspire much confidence.

The bullpen was worse. Joe Nelson started out strong (3-2, 1.78, 13 saves in 22 games) then was called up to Pawtucket and eventually Boston, where he managed to lower his career ERA to just over 25.00. Juan Perez looked like he was going to do some big things after Nelson left, but he was maddeningly inconsistent. Marc Deschesnes came in at the end of the year and had some good numbers (1-1, 11 sv, 2.45 ERA in 27 games). Then there were the guys like Colin Young, who will forever be the enemy of my soul after I was forced to watch him balk a guy all the way around the bases in a driving rainstorm. And he wasn't the worst of the bunch.

So there you have it. Promise kept, from a technical standpoint, though I didn't really dig into the numbers. Only a couple of these guys are even remote prospects at this point, with Flaky Abe (who I will really miss) being the best of the bunch. Things look a lot better this year, with the two Jons (Papelbon and Lester) likely to arrive from Wilmington (nee Sarasota), along with a couple of other promising pitchers.

I'm looking ahead to the BIS gig again this year, so I'll have frequent updates from the ballpark. And maybe more to say between now and then!

Minor League Ball :: Minor Leagues blog featuring John Sickels

Minor League Ball :: Minor Leagues blog featuring John Sickels

The long-lost blogger returns! And to all of my adoring audience (if you haven't totally given up on me yet), I promise to pay some attention to this blog going forward.

Anyway, my blog sucks compared to the linked Minor League blog with John Sickels. This is just plain the best blog-style baseball site that I have come across. In addition to going through the top prospects of all the teams, he's got a Young Pitcher Symposium going on, which started as a "Who would you rather have?" discussion featuring Josh Beckett, Rich Harden and Jake Peavy.

I'll admit to a little bit of bias here in saying that I would prefer Beckett - because he came through Portland and because he beat the Yankees in 2003 and because (perhaps not coincidentally) he's the only one of the three who I've seen pitch. But, man, he looked like Pedro in the 2003 playoffs - he was freaking unbelievable!

After looking at their numbers, I will stick with Beckett. His biggest problem has been staying on the mound, but that's been related to blisters (a problem that he should be able to overcome), rather than muscle or joint damage. Beckett has the best WHIP and K/BB ratio of the three. Peavy does have a better W/L record (which means little), and a sexy little ERA crown under his belt. (That was set in a pitchers park, but his Adjusted ERA+ of 177 in 2004 also led the league, ahead of the Unit's 171). Harden doesn't have these kinds of numbers on his resume, but he's only 22 and right in line with what Beckett and Peavy had done up to that point - plus he utterly dominated in the minors in 2003, forcing the A's to call him up.

Actually, let's look at how Harden stacks up to the former Big 3 (tm) for a moment. At age 22, Rich Harden pitched 189.2 innings in the majors, posting an 11-7 record, 3.99 ERA (117 ERA+), a 1.33 WHIP and 2.06 K/BB ratio. At the same age, the Big 3 (tm) did this

IP W L ERA ERA+ WHIP K/BB Player
154.0 9 10 5.44 87 1.69 1.27 Mulder
92.7 7 4 2.72 174 1.18 1.73 Zito
Hudson didn't make his MLB debut until he was 23.

Harden looks pretty good so far.

At age 23 (Harden's upcoming season), the comps look like this:

IP W L ERA ERA+ WHIP K/BB Player
229.1 21-8 3.45 126 1.16 3.00 Mulder
214.1 17-7 3.49 125 1.23 2.56 Zito
136.1 11-2 3.23 149 1.34 2.13 Hudson

Harden could indeed have some very good days ahead of him.

But I digress. I think that I would go Beckett, Harden, Peavy given the opportunity, but I think that they will all be great pitchers for a long time.

And check out John Sickels' blog - it really rocks!