Monday, August 09, 2004

DePodesta Monkey Trial -- The Hardball Times

DePodesta Monkey Trial -- The Hardball Times

Here's a nice article by Larry Mahnken at the Hardball Times, talking about the backlash against Sabermetrics in general, and the media response to the Dodgers/Marlins trade of last weekend in particular.

Here's the gist:

The sabermetric debate has been categorized by some as a debate between opposing religions. It's not. This isn't the Crusades, it's more like the Scopes Monkey Trial. In 1986, writing of the misconception of Milwaukee County Stadium as a hitters' park, Bill James wrote:

Anyway, the "dispute" isn't a disagreement about the evidence, but a disagreement between people who are looking at the evidence and people who aren't. It's like asking a naturalist why he doesn't do a complete, once-and-for-all study on the evidence of evolution and creationism. The evidence is already conclusive; it's just that there are people who don't intend to accept it unless the hand of God appears in the sky one afternoon and writes "ALL RIGHT! I CONFESS! I DID IT BY EVOLUTION! IT TOOK ME YEARS! I'SE JUST KIDDING ABOUT THE SEVEN DAYS! AND BY THE WAY, MILWAUKEE COUNTY STADIUM IS A PITCHER'S PARK ... BE BACK NEXT MILLENNIUM. LOVE, GOD. P.S. IF YOU DO ANY MORE MOVIES I'D PREFER DEBRA WINGER TO GEORGE BURNS."

There are some who still refuse to look at the evidence, and they never will. I say nuts to them. They're not going to come around, and we shouldn't care anymore. Let them continue to overvalue heart, chemistry and other intangibles. The truth is on our side, and by focusing on the next generation of fans, the next generation of sportswriters, and the next
generation of general managers, the game will be better served, and objective statistical analysis will be given equal footing with subjective scouting.

It's worth a read, even by the skeptics. It's also worth noting that Larry Mahnken is a New York Yankee fan, and he's downplaying "heart, chemistry and other intangibles" that so many Yankee fans cite as the difference between their team and any other. The bottom line is, good players win games, and winning builds chemistry.

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